Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

The New Cold War Is Taking Form

We’re near the end of our fundraiser, and now about $1,100 out from our fundraising target. If you read regularly and value the site and have the money to spare, please consider subscribing or donating. Over 10k people read this site every day, and it’s free, but it and Ian do take money to run. Huge thanks to all who have given so far, a number which is now slightly over 100 people.

This speech by Russian Secretary of State Glazyev is important, and underlines how the days of dollar hegemony are close to an end:

“The easiest way to stop the arms race is by ceasing the use of NATO countries’ currencies,” he stated unequivocally. “Because to the extent that we use the dollar, euro, and pound, we finance their defense expenses.”

He provided a staggering figure: “The total volume of [Western] monetary issuance last year was five trillion dollars. Of this, two and a half trillion dollars is what the Eurasian states, among others, have taken on. If we stop using these currencies… we will practically halve the financial potential of the global hybrid war.”

“In the US, their satellites have completely destroyed international law… The World Trade Organization is not functioning, the norms of the global financial system are violated, and the generally accepted norms of business ethics are ignored,” he said, endorsing the Belarusian-led “Charter of Multipolarity and Diversity” as the ethical alternative.

He announced concrete steps to build this new system, revealing that work is “already underway to create a large social network that would unite hundreds of millions, maybe billions of citizens, who are ready to adhere to traditional norms, ethics, and follow their commitments.”

But it’s not just about money. For example the Power of Siberia pipeline means more than a hundred billion cubic meters of natural gas, which once went to Europe, will now go to China. Europe gets to buy much more expensive American natural gas. African countries are kicking France and the US out, ending their base leases, at an increasing rate, and from Japan I read:

Japan must stop importing liquefied natural gas from Russia. It means developing alternative energy sources, including the restarting of nuclear power plants.

Even as the G7 countries are stepping up sanctions against Russia, Japan finds itself in the position where it is now procuring just under 10% of its LNG from Russia.

However, there is a chance that Japan will not be treated as an exception. US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent has said that he is “expecting” Japan to cease energy imports from Russia.

Japan’s public and private sectors need to prepare to ensure that LNG availability is not disrupted.

Japan does roughly equal trade with the West, and with BRICS, with about a 2% edge to BRICS. This is a terrible position to be in, though I’d suggest that going with the rising powers rather than the falling ones is the way to go.

The problem is that America is forcing nations to choose. Playing both sides: trading with both, may not be possible going forward. There will be two payment systems, so simple financial sanctions won’t work, but other types of market controls like tariffs and import/export controls have come roaring back into use.

Trade that can be cut off or curtailed at any point, apparently arbitrarily, can’t be counted on. When one looks at America and China’s strategy, China’s is mostly “punch back”. They rarely initiate sanctions except in cases where a country chooses to side with Taiwan. America, on the other hand, is… erratic. One can’t make plans, because one never knows when the rules of trade may change.

This is another reason why I think joining BRICS and that trade bloc is the sensible move. The old “rules based order” as Glazyev has pointed out, no longer exists in practice: the rules change at a whim and aren’t fairly enforced. While this was always true to some extent (Canadians remember how the US just ignored rulings against it on softwood lumber) it has become so common that the rule is now “whatever the US wants, and who knows what that will be tomorrow?”

America is trying to force a clean split into two blocs. But the other bloc is richer, more trustworthy and arguably stronger. And if it isn’t stronger yet, it will be in a decade, guaranteed.

This also relates to America’s actions in South America, an attempt to try and keep the America’s “American”, which is bound to fail. But as the declining power America wants to use its military force while it still has local superiority and before China and Russia can sell or give local nations enough weapons to become effectively immune to US force.

This process is the culmination of one of the major themes of my writing for almost a quarter century. The US era of sole supremacy has now ended. It can no longer force China to do what it wants, and it can’t even keep the sea lanes open, as Yemen has proved.

The old era is dead. There will be a brief period of co-equality, then America and Europe will fade into has-beens. I thought at one point we might have a new real cold war. We will, but not for very long. America isn’t going to be as strong as the old USSR, it won’t be able to hold up its end, and its current policy is to bleed its vassals, especially Europe, white. That will make them virtually worthless as vassals and will most likely lead to a revolt sometime between ten and fifteen years from now, as the European standard of living collapses under de-industrialization and without its sub-vassals selling it under-priced resources.

Centuries of Western rule of the world are coming to an end, and the Middle Kingdom is resuming its accustomed role as the most important country in the world. It’s a fascinating change-over to live thru, if not much fun if one lives among the Golden billion, who are being demoted  to the Bronze or perhaps Copper billion.

Yes, Canadians Did—Did Think America Was A Friend & Yes, Trump Is Good For Canada

These numbers are astounding:

36 per cent of Canadians currently view the United States as a friend, compared to 60 per cent at the end of 2020 and 89 per cent in 2013, and that 27 per cent of Canadians presently view the U.S. as an enemy, a number that stood at 11 per cent in 2020 and as low as one per cent in 2013.

Notice that 1% figure regarding the US as an enemy in 2013, and 60% viewing it as a friend as late as 2020. When I say I was a lone voice screaming that we couldn’t trust America, I’m not exaggerating by much.

My position was half “America has never been trustworthy to anyone, and it ignores NAFTA rulings and destroyed our aviation industry” and half “countries have interests not friends.”

The moment it wasn’t in America’s perceived interest to be friends, it wouldn’t be, and empires are always implicitly enemies of their vassals, seeing them as useful tools, not friends.

But I want to emphasize how grateful I am to to Trump. If he had played along, given the appearance of friendship while slowly screwing Canada over, the way most recent administrations have, Canada would have gone along with it. If the past 45 years have taught us anything, it should be that people will tolerate a slowly eroding situation for ages, the metaphorical frogs in the slowly heating pot. (Frogs aren’t actually that stupid, not being humans.)

Canada spent the 90s and 00’s making nice with China, then reversed on a dime under US pressure, arresting the daughter of Huawei’s CEO for America and slapping 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.

Then came Trump with his talk of annexation and his lies about Fentanyl (the same lies being used against Venezuela, you’ll note. Trump is not very imaginative. One lie for all seasons.) The truth is that Canada is exactly the sort of trade partner that America should want: yes we have a surplus, but it’s because we sell oil and minerals to the US. In the far more important manufactured goods area, we’re net importers.

If we were to cut the US off from Canadian crude, multiple refineries would be shuttered and there wouldn’t be enough gasoline. (Ironically, Venezuela is the other big supplier of the sort of heavy crude these refineries are set up to use.) You don’t want it? You don’t have to buy it, it isn’t competing with US crude.

But lately Trump may have gone too far for even Canadian politicians, though to be fair, Canada has been far more resistant to tariff blackmail than almost any other country except China. Japan and the EU buckled far more easily.

Two important events: first Stellantis said it was going to move a factory to the US from Canada. Reshoring industry and all that. Canada and America’s auto industries have been integrated since World War II under the Auto Pact. This is why Canadian politicians were ready to hit China with that 100% EV tariff, they were protecting Canadian jobs since Chinese cars are half the price of American made ones.

Then, in response to Ontario Premier Rob Ford’s ad quoting Reagan as against tariffs, Trump slapped on another 10% tariff on Canadian goods, and stopped all trade talks.

Thank God for Trump. Canadian politicians want to capitulate, if they can get surrender terms that don’t amount to “you won’t be re-elected” and he keeps not letting them.

So word is that the Feds are considering ending the 100% tariff. Presumably the idea is to try for the same sort of deal Mexico got: assembly plants in Canada for Chinese EVs.

If we can’t have American car manufacturing jobs, why not Chinese? Bonus, happy consumers/voters when they can get better cars for half the price.

Trump just keeps giving, just not to anyone who voted for him who isn’t worth 7 figures. Canada should have been pivoting to China hard years ago, and now, thanks to Trump it may well happen.

I just hope that after Trump gets on his knees and begs Xi to let him off the China trade war hook, that he doesn’t let us off the hook and give Canadian pols a way to avoid the pivot.

All praise Trump. He’s a genocidal monster, has the attention span of a dementia patient and betrays anyone stupid enough to trust him who can’t afford to bribe him, but he may just save Canada yet.

We’re near the end of our fundraiser, and now about $1,500 out from our fundraising target. If you read regularly and value the site and have the money to spare, please consider subscribing or donating. Over 10k people read this site every day, and it’s free, but it and Ian do take money to run. Huge thanks to all who have given so far, a number which is now slightly over 100 people.

Development Politics in Central and South America

~by Sean Paul Kelley

Most of you probably know I lived in Nicaragua for a time—about six months—overseeing renovations to my father’s house, where he lives even now.

Me? I’m no fan of the country, nor its politics, nor do I romanticize the pervasive, grinding subsistence poverty in the countryside and sad, soul destroying poverty in the cities. About two dozen rapacious families guarantee Nicaragua’s place as second poorest nation in this hemisphere.

Nicaragua is not without its charms. I have a deep respect for the people of one of three nations in this hemisphere who, one, told the United States to fuck off and two, have largely succeed in keeping the US at arms length. The Spanish spoken in Nicaragua is, in two words, incomprehensibly unique. They distinguish between beans and rice and rice and beans. Seriously they make up two distinct dishes, although I can’t tell the difference. They eat some crazy vegetables—they have ten different varieties of squash, which I detest. But, they know how to cook meat in ways as diverse as barbecue, stew, seared and broiled. Chicken, pork, beef (no lamb or goats) and of course gallino de palo (tree-chickens AKA iguanas) make up the usual tasty fare.

Nicaragua’s best aspect is its untapped collection of perfectly sized waves, best on the Central American Pacific Coast by my estimation; waves for beginners and pros alike. There is only one monster, which I’ll get to in a moment. Sadly (or not) the changes in the political situation between 2015-2025 have scared off most surfers and they’ve migrated to Costa Rica, which has some sweet waves and parts of Guatemala that remain damned near empty. But, I digress.

One late morning, completely disgusted after persistently being thrashed by the waves breaking on the beach at Popoyo—the barrels collapsed so rapidly I was unable to get all but three drops (and no, I was not surfing the A-frame point break Popoyo is famous for, as a beginner I had no death wish I’ve seen too many boards munched on that wave) so I gave up, hopped in the car and began the two hour drive back to Granada.

After 30 minutes drive on a dirt road I turned north on Nicaragua’s stretch of the Pan-American Highway. No fan of Latin music (the radio was off) my mind wandered along the amazing scenery. Volcanoes rose. Small villages disappeared in a sneeze. The olive shades of Lake of Nicaragua were seemingly endless. Isla Ometepe, an island of twin volcanoes, shot up and passed by just as quickly. A few small attempts at agriculture grew to my left and right. All disappeared in blur or blink.

But time passes strange in a foreign land and stranger still on the road. I pulled over next to an anemic sugar cane field, cut a small stalk, sliced it into three pieces and returned to the car. As I shaved the outer layer off and bit into the heart of the cane, two thoughts, as if in quantum superposition, occupied my mind.

“Damn, this is sweet!” Mundane, indeed, but the other was the “a-ha” moment my brain had been silently working out for the last hour.

“Holy shit,” I mouthed silently, “Nicaragua is full of a whole lot of nothing.” Sure, up north in the mountains they grow some mid-grade coffee. Tobacco growth is accelerating also. Why in the current anti-tobacco global climate I don’t know? But it is. Cassava is a major crop, it’s like a potato but tastes like a brown paper bag on a good day. True hunger makes much palatable, I suppose. Plantains and bananas are grown of course. And there are a handful of other root-like plants and squash-like plants that grow there also. The country imports most of its rice, but grows a lot of beans/legumes.

Later I shared this realization with my father who was as surprised as I was by the realization. He agreed. Of course, Dad and I think alike in many ways—father and son, best friends, traveled in 50 plus nations together—so we quickly developed a shorthand for my “whole lot of nothing” observation, calling it ‘low hanging fruit’ syndrome, LHF for short.

LHF came to signify the lack of economic development and general lack of entrepreneurial spirit in Central America. Now, not every nation on the planet is going to be entrepreneurial. Laos is an excellent example—and please this is not a criticism of Laos and Laotians. When I was there they just seemed to have other priorities, like Buddhism. But Nicaraguan’s? The Pinoleros—the preferred demonym of the Nicaraguans and it has not one whit of the pejorative to it—are natural, gifted hustlers, practically pure bred entrepreneurs who are imbued with a naturally prepossessing work ethic and quite a bit of chutzpah. In short: they know when to engage, when to toss out a bit of bullshit. They can sell with the best Wall Street sharks—I’d know—and they know how to make and keep money.

“Why then,” you ask, “is Nicaragua, the largest nation in Central America, making no economic progress and going backwards instead?”

Great question!

There are two reasons for Nicaragua’s penury. First, 90% of Nicaraguans live west of the Pacific slope or in the interior highlands. This population occupies only 38% of Nicaragua’s landmass. The remaining 10% of Nicaraguans live on a narrow strip of the Caribbean Coast or the Corn Islands. Almost two thirds of the country—62%— is uninhabited. Not that I am advocating the rapine of all the pristine tropical forest of the Caribbean lowlands, but far to little of it is being developed and far too many people occupy a very crowded Pacific slope. What is the cause of this underdevelopment? The Pacific slope is littered with LHF and to travel through the Caribbean Lowlands to the coast takes two days on very, very bad roads. Until there is significant infrastructure development that opens the lowlands to development Nicaragua will remain mired in LHF poverty.

Hurdles aside, development politics in Central and South Americ are undergoing a seismic shift. That’s good news for the Pinoleros, money is pouring in. It’s bad news for the USA because the cash is coming from China. As is China’s policy, the money comes with no strings attached, unlike American money with its persistent moral litany of “Do this, don’t do that!”

“Do as we say, not as we do!”

This is not what the Nicaraguans hear from China. The only real demand the Chinese make is on the bigger infrastructure projects. Chinese builders design it, and Chinese build it, hiring few, if any local workers—usually because they don’t have the skills. The Chinese also pay for it, mostly, and don’t lecture. The US can’t compete—not after 150 years of terrible behavior in Latin America. The conclusion, the only conclusion, one can come to in Nicaragua and many other Latin American nations is that the USA is losing influence and power to China. Big time. And fast.

We have a sustained current account deficit with Nicaragua of $1.9 billion. That means we consistently import more from them than we export. China is the reverse. Much of that is due to FDI (foreign direct investment). This investment doesn’t benefit China solely. At present China is building a huge new airport that’s primary goal is to displace the Avianca Hub in San Salvador as the go to airport in Central America. China funded it to the tune of $499 million. It will possess two 4,000 meter runways, long enough and large enough to accommodate Airbus A380 and other wide body jets. The airport is intended to act as a non-stop hub to Europe, Asia and all of South America. Ground has been broken and the expected operational date is sometime in 2028.

The Chinese are also going to help build out the road network to the Caribbean Coast. This will create many new opportunities. Ortega, for all his faults, brought about some serious land reform at the beginning of his rule, so the Caribbean lowlands are now open to just about anyone who has the gumption to settle them.

The decline in American power is as palpable now as it was during the COVID epidemic. The moment COVID was politicized I could literally sense our decline, it was so obvious. Now, under Trump II, the decline is accelerating. Even in our own backyard.

The jury is still out on whether it is rapidly relative decline or real decline. I think it is the latter, only time will tell. Just not enough time for my taste.

On that note: please, please, support this site, subscribe or donate. We’re about $1,800 from our goal of $12,500. 

Apologies For The Non-Existent Posting

By Sean Paul Kelley

Folks I’m sorry I haven’t posted in a while. Not that I need to explain, but I value the community here and wanted to offer up what’s been happening with me.

For several months now I have been battling a severely low resting heart rate (low 30s to mid 40s) and there is some light at the end of the tunnel,  so says my cardiologist; we are exploring options. The good news is I have been an athlete most of my life. Ran a few marathons, for twenty years I ran close to 30 miles a week. So, my normal resting heart rate at age 55–gods aging does sucketh–is usually in the mid-60s to low 70s. As we all know you only get so many heartbeats in life. So, the fewer the better. That’s the good news.

But, a resting heart rate in the low 30s can cause fainting spells when one makes to fast a move. As an heretofore active person–I mean I walk at almost twice the speed of everyone else, naturally, I have to be careful.

As you all know I dislocated my shoulder a few weeks ago. The reason behind the fall was I was acting like a teenager bouncing down the stairs. Fortunately I began to faint when I only had four or five steps left to go, so instead of falling down the whole rack and breaking my neck, well, we all know what happened. Tangentially, when those guys in the movies who dislocate a shoulder then smash it back into place against a wall and then go on back to their kicking ass spree is pure horseshit.

Anyway, the upshot is this: when my heart rate is very low I am very tired and inactive. Today it’s in the 60s. But y’all will just have to bear with me for the time being. I have no way of knowing when this will go away.

On that note: please, please, support this site, subscribe or donate. We’re about $1,800 from our goal of $12,500. 

Near The End of Our Fundraiser, About $2,200 to go

Every year we do a fundraiser. This pays to keep the site and me running, and the site wouldn’t be viable without it.

If you read the blog readily, I probably don’t have to sing its praises but I’ll do so anyway, as a nod to tradition.. Generally we’re ahead of most of the media by years, often by decades. Everyone’s talking about the dollar losing sovereignty now, I’ve been noting its inevitability for a couple decades, likewise the rise of China. For years I noted that climate change would come in faster than expected, and so it has, with massive wildfires and way before the consensus. I said that Russia would win the Ukraine war militarily, and that’s on track. I wrote that semiconductor sanctions would not work, and so it has been. I warned about Rare Earths years ago, and noted that tariffs, as Trump does them, would boomerang.

Of course I’m not perfect, I get things wrong. I didn’t expect the fall of Syria for example, and thought that the Axis of Resistance would be more aggressive, nor did I realize the extent to which Mossad had infiltrated Hezbollah. Sadly, it appears I was probably right about how many Palestinians were killed, though I hope not.

This year readership at the site is way up. I’ve moved to more expensive servers (and we still have some issues with loading due to bot swarms scouring for material to train on.) Ever since Covid especially, more and more of us have been harmed by the terribly run economies of most Western nations: increased rent, lousy jobs, Trump’s moronic trade war and so on.

That said if you read regularly, you find the site useful, and giving won’t cause you distress, I’d appreciate if you subscribe or donate. We’re about $2,600 from our goal of $12,500.

Either way, be well. It’s been a long journey, but it’s been a bit easier, I think, taking it together.

Are We A Week Away From An American Invasion of Venezuela?

We’re about 4 weeks into our annual fundraiser. Our goal is $12,500 (same as last year). So far we’ve raised $9,735 from 82 people out of a readership of about 10,000. 

If you read this blog, you’re usually ahead of everyone else. You know, years in advance, much of what’s going to happen. The intelligence from this blog is better than what people pay $10,000/year for. Without donations and subscriptions, this blog isn’t viable. If you want to keep it, and you can afford to, please give. If you’re considering a large donation, consider making it matching. (ianatfdl-at-gmail-dot-com).

In a week, about a quarter of the entire US Navy will be off Venezuela. Trump has made claims about Venezuela smuggling Fentanyl to America, but this is completely laughable and anyone with a room temperature IQ knows its a lie. (Though, who knows, Trump may believe it, not having a room temperature IQ.)

Anyway, Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves and Trump does love other people’s resources.

But I think the geopolitics are more important. The entire world outside of America’s direct vassals are throwing off the West’s shackles. Madagascar, for example, has said it is ending ALL ties to France. Yemen successfully defied America. America isn’t toothless yet. Syria and Lebanon attest to that, and Egypt and Turkey’s groveling acquiescence shows the America whip, though dulling, is still feared by some.

Still, Brazil told America to go take a hike when Trump tried to interfere in their legal system. Colombia’s President said he is willing to end all military cooperation with the US and that the only thing Colombia would miss is the helicopters. (Russia or China or even Iran can make this up, it isn’t advanced tech.)

What made America an Empire was the declaration of the Monroe Doctrine and the ability to enforce it. Every country in the Americas had to bow to the whip, except Canada and other British possessions. They fell under the whip after World War II. In Canada’s case the carrot was the auto-pact (you can manufacture some cars) and the whip was “and you will give up your aviation industry, because it is more advanced than ours and that is unacceptable.”

Oh there were rebellions and the Cubans even managed to make it stick, at great cost, but by and large if you didn’t do what America wanted a coup would happen, or your leader would wind up eating a bullet, and the wives of the opposition would be raped by dogs, as in Peru. People learned to fear the whip, and not to rebel too far. America was the monster next door, who’d kill you, torture your family and rape your women. They’d even kill priests and nuns. (No, you don’t get to pretend America isn’t responsible for its proxies.)

But the calculus is changing. Once half of Africa lived in fear of France’s regime change and “anti-terrorism”. Like the Americans, there was no evil they would not commit. And the Americans had their bases too, and everyone with sense feared the whip, especially after the USSR fell and there was no countervailing force.

But now there is. The dual alliance: China and Russia. In the old days the whip was supplemented with a simple fact of life. If you wanted any advanced technology, including cars, anti-biotics, electricity or planes, it had to come from the West.

But China can sell you all of that now. And Russia, well, their mercenaries can keep the peace. Yeah, they’re nasty, but they don’t turn on their host governments (or not so far.) And a nice Russian base is excellent inoculation against a case of American or French base. Meanwhile the Chinese have better fighters, better missiles and better drones. China or Russia can supply your military, and China will build you ports, hospitals, railroads, schools… whatever you want. When they lend you money, the interest rate is lower than anything the West offers and they don’t require IMF readjustments which destroy your economy and impoverish your people.

So all the US and the West have left is the whip. Thing is, the whip’s getting dull. America weapons are no longer the best. America can’t make its weapons with supplies from China, some of which, the rare earths, were just cut off. The US Navy is getting smaller. The Chinese navy is getting larger. The US can’t meet recruitment quotas.

America’s in terminal decline and everyone knows it. But like Britain in the 1930s, that doesn’t mean it isn’t still powerful and couldn’t fuck you up.

The smart people in Trump’s administration, I think, see that their military force is a wasting asset. The longer they wait to use it the less they have, and the more their enemies have. Russia and China could get enough gear and advisors to Venezuela to make attacking it a complete no go, in principle, and given time, they will. Same with almost every other reasonable sized country.

So if America wants to attack Venezuela it has to be soon.

Of course, even if it works, it’ll be a complete fiasco. A proxy government gets propped up, can’t suppress the opposition effectively in a huge country with jungles and mountains made by God for guerilla warfare and a peasantry and urban poor who are hostile and well organized. Either they lose (probably experiencing a colonel’s coup) or the Americans have to go in themselves. First it’ll be mercs, of course, but they won’t be enough. The oil won’t flow, because it’s easily interdicted and damaged by a competent insurgency, Venezuela will become even more of a basket case, and so on. Eventually the Americans will leave. Perhaps they’ll get a semi-stable puppet government running, but it won’t last, for the simple reason that as time goes by, siding with the US instead of China will be stupid. China and its junior partner Russia, just offer so much more.

Venezuela, the like the Gaza genocide and land grab, are among the last gasps of America empire. Empires die bloody. If we get away without a nuclear or world war, we’ll be doing well.

May America then break up into multiple states and never again be a unified nation capable of exerting its will upon the rest of the world.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 26, 2025

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 26, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [mediaite.com]

ICE Agents Can Now Be Arrested in Chicago 

[Migrant Insider, via Naked Capitalism 10-21-2025]

A FEDERAL JUDGE IN CHICAGO RULED last Wednesday that starting this week ICE agents can now face arrest and contempt proceedings if they conduct unlawful, warrantless arrests, marking a dramatic shift in immigration enforcement oversight in the city.

U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Cummings found that ICE agents violated the terms of a consent decree by detaining people without proper warrants, following a surge in such arrests amid increased enforcement activity. According to the judge’s order, ICE agents must now wear body cameras and have them turned on. They also cannot arrest anyone complying with their appointment dates at immigration courthouses.

Letters from an American, October 23, 2025

Heather Cox Richardson, Oct 24, 2025

Julia Ainsley and Didi Martinez of NBC News reported today that Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s rush to get new recruits onto the street has meant they have pushed into their training program more than 200 people who have disqualifying criminal backgrounds, fail drug testing, or don’t meet the academic or physical requirements.

The budget reconciliation measure the Republicans passed in July—the one they call the “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act”—included more than $170 billion over four years for immigration and border security. The law tripled ICE’s annual budget, giving it “more than the annual expenditures on police by state and local governments in all 50 states and the District of Columbia combined,” according to Margy O’Herron of the Brennan Center, a nonpartisan pro-democracy law and policy institute.

Part of that money was to hire about 10,000 deportation officers. As O’Herron notes, a 2017 report by the Department of Homeland Security Office of Inspector General found that to hire 10,000 officers would require vetting 500,000 applicants….

In August, ICE began to offer a $50,000 signing bonus and got rid of its age limits. To fill the ranks, Ainsley and Martinez note, ICE has already shortened its training program from 13 weeks to 6. They report that nearly half of those dismissed from ICE over the past three months could not pass an open-book exam. Others could not run 1.5 miles in less than 14 minutes, 25 seconds, or do 15 push-ups and 32 sit-ups.

Sociologist Ian Carillo called attention to a 2020 article by political scientists Adam Scharpf and Christian Glässel looking into why secret police agents are often “surprisingly mediocre in skill and intellect.” By examining the 4,287 officers who served in autocratic Argentina from 1975 to 1983, they discovered that the ranks of secret police are filled by those who perform poorly in merit-based systems. Facing firing for their poor performance, they turn to more burdensome secret police work.

Today Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker established the “Illinois Accountability Commission” to compile evidence against federal agents who have harassed, intimidated, brutalized, and detained American citizens and legal residents in Illinois. “None of this is about crime or safety,” Pritzker said. “If it were, there would be coordination with local law enforcement and judicial warrants…. Under normal circumstances,” he said, “federal agency supervisors and inspectors general would enforce proper legal procedures and protocols and hold accountable those who violate them.” But Trump has fired 17 inspectors general and installed cronies at the Department of Justice, while MAGA congress members refuse to hold hearings or conduct oversight. Administration officials are acting as if they are “immune from investigation or accountability,” Pritzker said “They are not.”

‘Evil, Fascist, Wannabe Authoritarian’ Stephen Miller Threatens IL Gov. Pritzker With Arrest

Jessica Corbett, October 25, 2025 [CommonDreams]

…Trump himself has called for jailing Pritzker and Democratic Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson “for failing to protect” ICE officers. Priztker, a billionaire and potential 2028 presidential candidate, has suggested Trump should be removed from office via the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution.

Miles Taylor, who served as Department of Homeland Security chief of staff during the first Trump administration and authored an infamous, anonymous 2018 New York Times editorialsaid Friday, “Feels like we’re going down the rabbit hole pretty fast here, folks.”

California state Sen. Scott Weiner (D-11), one of the Democrats running for former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s seat in the next cycle, said: “They’re now explicitly taking the position that state and local elected officials are committing crimes when they attempt to protect their communities from the ICE secret police.”….

ICE boosts weapons spending 700% 

[Popular Information, via Naked Capitalism 10-21-2025]

“…there have also been significant purchases of chemical weapons and “guided missile warheads and explosive components.”

[TW: What does ICE want guided missile warheads for?]

Did Donald Trump Nearly Get Hakeem Jeffries Killed?

Peter Rothpletz, Oct 22, 2025 [Zeteo]

Yesterday, one of the men Trump freed from accountability was arrested for allegedly plotting to murder the House minority leader.

A story in three parts.

“I will kill him for the future,” 34-year-old Christopher Moynihan stated via text, according to New York court records. “Hakeem Jeffries makes a speech in a few days in NYC I cannot allow this terrorist to live,” he went on.

“Even if I am hated he must be eliminated.”

Mike Johnson Says No Kings Protest Is Worse Than Threats on Jeffries

Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling, October 21, 2025 [The New Republic]

House Speaker Mike Johnson brushed off assassination threats against Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries Tuesday, claiming that—despite the wannabe assassin’s conservative politics—the left is still at fault….

…Johnson chose to throw the responsibility back at America’s ideological left.

“I will tell you this, the violence on the left is far more prevalent than the violence on the right,” Johnson said Tuesday. “The assassination culture that’s been advanced now—this is the left, in almost every case that is advancing this, and not the right. Let’s not make this a partisan issue, you don’t want me to go there.

“The rhetoric that you saw on display Saturday, we highlighted yesterday, it plays into this. There are people that get triggered—there are deranged people in society when they hear elected officials participating in a rally that was paid for by [George] Soros and sponsored by Communists, with signs and placards and mantras that were repeated that, ‘We should bring death to fascist politicians.’ They call every Republican a fascist now,” Johnson said, referring to the peaceful No Kings protests that took place across the country this past weekend….

Trump “National Police Force” Built on ICE Partnerships With Local Agencies Like… Wildlife Commissions?

Akela Lacy, October 20 2025 [The Intercept]

In addition to deploying tens of thousands of federal agents from across the federal government to carry out his deportation agenda, President Donald Trump is rapidly expanding the network of state and local police going after immigrants through partnerships with U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement.

The aggressive, nationwide law enforcement regime, all taking place under orders from the White House, amounts to what scholars, attorneys, and now a federal judge say are steps toward the creation of a national police force. And the ranks of ICE partners won’t be filled with just local cops: In at least three states, the administration is joining forces with agencies typically tasked with environmental and marine protection, lottery control, and gaming to target immigrants….

“No Kings” Protest (and Arrests) Have Begun

Ken Klippenstein. “NSPM-7 is already being used to detain protesters over speech.”

Trump Said to Demand Justice Dept. Pay Him $230 Million for Past Cases 

[New York Times, via Naked Capitalism 10-22-2025]

Rubio promised to betray U.S. informants to get Trump’s El Salvador prison deal 

[WaPo, via Naked Capitalism 10-20-2025]

The Man Who Wants You Dead — Trump’s Golem Stephen Miller Wants to See Your Blood in the Streets.

Malcolm Nance, Oct 21, 2025 [Black Man Spy]

Every Thursday afternoon I do a Substack live with Michael Cohen (@therealmichaelcohen) and Lev Parnas (@levparnas) we call “Unleashed”. I amusingly refer to it as “Two Felons and a Spy.”

These two men have a decade and a half of experience working directly for Donald Trump on a day-to-day basis: Cohen as Trump’s personal lawyer and Parnas as his Russia-Ukraine fixer on the project that got Trump impeached. They both suddenly found themselves and their integrity by turning against Trump when investigated for charges of fraud.

But no good deed goes unpunished, and Trump’s Department of Justice quickly prosecuted both of them….

Of all the people who are on the never-Trump train, these two have special insight that no other people in the never-Trump world have. They know what is in Trump’s mind, and they also know all of his cabinet members personally. So when Parnas and Cohen speak, I listen very, very carefully.

In the continued discussions about the rising levels of rhetoric equating the Democratic Party to violent extremism. I had to pose one question:

Will Trump order violence against Americans?

Cohen was unequivocal, “No. He won’t. That’s not the way he operates. He does nothing directly.” Lev Parnas agreed that Trump himself is a coward and won’t order violence with the words coming out of his mouth, “Go kill people.”

But … they added a caveat.

They both agree that Trump will let someone else order the killing for him.

A few weeks ago, I asked them, “Who in the administration will get Trump to issue the order that will result in killing Americans?”

Almost simultaneously, they both said, “Stephen Miller.”

The role of Stephen Miller is now to shape the political environment to get Trump to allow him and his secret Police, ICE, to characterize the opposing party as a terrorist organization. In a further step towards single-party rule and dictatorship, on August 26, Miller stated, “the Democrat Party is not a political party. It is a domestic extremist organization.” ….

Officials Plot to Have Trump Declare National Emergency in 2026, Raising Fears He May ‘Hijack’ the Next Election

Stephen Prager. Oct 23, 2025 [CommonDreams]

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