Good news, probably. We’ll see if they rein in the secret police and the various corrupt police stations which run semi-autonomously and engage in much of the rape and torture.
Notice that this happened when the people marched on the presidential palace, and not before.
Endgame here is probably an Attaturk Turkish style democracy, where the military acts as the final guarantor. Note also that the military has a lot of business interests in Egypt, and were enraged by Mubarak’s ne0liberal policies, like selling off banks, which damaged them significantly.
Congratulations to the protestors, who seem to have been organized in large part by Egyptian labor. This is a victory, however it turns out in the longer run.
Tom Hickey
Regardless of the ultimate outcome, the symbolism of this at least interim victory cannot be overstated. It is a really big deal when an unarmed population topples a police state, using nonviolence.
The consequences of this remarkable achievement are going to reverberate globally for some time. It also puts to rest the idea that some nations are not ready for democratic change and must be treated “paternally.”
This is definitely a blow to the American Empire based on economic neoliberalism and neocolonialism. Neoconservatives are likely to see this as a vindication of their push for democracies in the ME, but the fact is that this movement was home-grown and had nothing to do with US pressure — in fact, the opposite, since the US was underwriting the Mubarak regime as a close ally.
These events will also spark a reaction as governments that feel threatened will take steps domestically to protect their territory of influence, recognizing that the major threat to the government may not be external. For example, China recognized the threat immediately and blocked all news of Egypt from its people. But that is just playing the ostrich.
Based on comments I am seeing on various blogs, this is also having an effect in the US. Maybe young people especially will wake up, realize that their future is being stolen, and do something about it. If there were still a draft, this might already have happened, but the powers-that-be learned that lesson from Vietnam. But while depression-level unemployment and underemployment may not be life-threatening, they are life destroying.
anon2525
Good news! Good luck to the Egyptians and the Tunisians!
Z
Hooray for the Egyptians! Hopefully this leads to a richer life for them not only economically where so many of them have been trying to survive on just $2 a day, but also provides them with greater personal and social freedom.
As a side note, the fed’s QEII, which is a transparent attempt at refurbishing the corrupt u.s. bank’s balance sheets and stoking inflation so that “our” nation’s debts can be repaid more easily, has IMO played a largely under appreciated role in this revolution becoz it helped lead to higher food prices which made overthrowing the Egyptian government and its economic system a matter of survival for the majority of the population. Empty stomachs lead to angry people. Lots of empty stomachs lead to revolutions.
Tom,
In regards to the u.s. you wrote:
“But while depression-level unemployment and underemployment may not be life-threatening, they are life destroying.”
I think it’s life threatening AND life destroying. Note that the head pr man of the establishment is currently proposing to cut back on energy subsidies for the poor. Also, the states are strapped, there are millions of 99ers coming off of unemployment benefits this year, and the states are ill equipped to provide welfare for all these people.
and:
“These events will also spark a reaction as governments that feel threatened will take steps domestically to protect their territory of influence, recognizing that the major threat to the government may not be external.”
The Egyptians and Tunisians have led the way. However, the u.s. government will be the hardest to topple becoz they are the most equipped to stomp on their subjects, the population has little cohesion, and very little social injustice has been corrected in this country through peaceful protest.
Z
anon2525
We’ll see if they rein in the secret police and the various corrupt police stations which run semi-autonomously and engage in much of the rape and torture.
How long will the internet remain shut down in Egypt? If it is kept shut down, will people return to the streets? And if it is allowed, we can expect to see a lot of news about what has been happening the past (almost) three weeks.
Sam Adams
Its 1848 again. Vive la revolution.
Dana
The internet has been available again in Egypt for several days now, I think about 5 days. Phones too. Even the State television has begun airing the Al Jazeera feed instead of old feeds of calm, empty streets.
The people who lost their fear aren’t going to re-adopt fear as a way of life now that they have seen what they can achieve without fear.
If the changes they want are seen to be being stymied or they feel short changed they will be back in the square. There is no going back to old ways even if the military wanted to.
Wael Ghonim doesn’t think they do. He trusts them.
Plus the military asked the head of the Egyptian Supreme Court to sit with them in the Council and keep them apprised of constitutional requirements.
I think that we’ve been watching the first stirrings of a rebirth for entire middle east.
lambert strether
+1000 on the shout-out to labor, which has been conspicuously ignored by all, even Al Jazeera…
Dana
Labour got into it in latter days. They weren’t there from the outset. Get over yourselves.
anon2525
…shout-out to labor, which has been conspicuously ignored by all…
It depends on your definition of “all”:
“Egypt’s Working Class Joins Anti-Government Revolt”
Cairo, Egypt – Thousands of workers throughout industry, education and transportation joined Egypt’s popular revolt Wednesday by staging strikes or protests that raised the specter of a general strike, an ominous sign for U.S.-backed President Hosni Mubarak’s regime. McClatchy Newspapers
After Record-Level Turnout in Tahrir, Egyptian Protests Spread to Parliament, Cabinet Buildings; Labor Unions Launch Strikes Nationwide
Democracy Now!
anon2525
The internet has been available again in Egypt for several days now, I think about 5 days. Phones too. Even the State television has begun airing the Al Jazeera feed instead of old feeds of calm, empty streets.
Good to learn. Thanks.
It could be interesting to have a constitutional convention in the internet age. I hope that they learn from our (the U.S.’s) mistakes, among others.
Peter Hoppe
Have the people of Egypt really toppled a police state? The real power behind Nasser was the military council, as it was for Sadat and Mubarak. Egypt is still a police state but without the pretense of an independent leader. The military is now overtly in charge and will no doubt orchestrate an election to simply change the figurehead at the top. Countries that rely on their military to stand in the shadows and watch over government operations and policy are not democracies. They are police states that use the facade of democracy to placate the people. I believe this is exactly what just happened in Egypt.
Dana
Peter Hoppe, then you are an awful lot smarter and more perceptive and wiser and just all round generally more human and brilliant than the few million Egyptians who just conducted their own fucking revolution.
Maybe they should have asked your fucking opinion before they even began back on January fucking 24th.
Maybe they should learn what to do from your fucking pearly, pink, fucking lips.
Maybe you should figure out when your fucking opinion is about as useful as a tiger slug on your tongue. Idiot.
They overthrew their entrenched, unshakable, USA and Great Britain supported Presidential dictator and his government FUCKING YESTERDAY YOU FUCK WIT.
Now I’m dead fucking certain there’s at at least a slender chance you might understand and even possibly believe the words of one of the architects of the Egyptian revolution. If you find you don’t believe them, let all of us know.
I’ll then at least feel less guilt about consigning you to the bin labelled “Too Stupid to Feed”.
I’m not however going to do the work for you. I know this may be a blow to your carefully nurtured high school facade of self esteem but you’re going to have to handle teh googling yourself.
Wael Ghonim. Mohamed ElBaradei. Muslim Brotherhood.
Inmate Peter Hoppe.
Give away the computer son. You’re too ideological and you’re not prepared for the actual world.
Stick to tofu dogs.
lambert strether
Do your homework, Dana. At least one of the groups doing the organizing, the April 5 Movement, got its start with textile strikes in 2006.
lambert strether
Jeebus, it’s been a long time since I’ve heard “fuckwit.” Good times. Way to close the deal, there, Dana.
Oh, I’m sorry. “FUCK WIT.” Points for all caps!
lambert strether
anon25, Yes, I’m aware of a few stories. Perhaps I should have said “almost entirely ignored.” Check the volume on stories about the unions, as opposed to the stories about Facebook, twitter, and so forth.
Ian Welsh
Relax folks. Egyptian Labor was involved, and their involvement was important. They weren’t the only people involved, no. As for their revolution, as the story goes “too soon to know”. It’s a victory, how it will turn out, we’ll see. Revolutions are only a step. A necessary one, but a step.
The Egyptian army taking over is not an unqualified victory. It is simply a change from the status quo, and one there is reason to believe may lead to something better. My hopes are fairly minimal: somewhat less corrupt democracy, less torture and rape, and less neo-liberal economic leading to impoverishment and hunger.
Morocco Bama
Dana, your reaction to Peter Hoppe is out of line. From my vantage, Peter is closer to the truth than you are. Much closer. Either way, it didn’t require the vitriolic reaction you displayed. What part of what he said do you disagree with, and why? For example, do you deny that the Army is in charge right now? You refer to the “Revolution” as though it’s over. That’s a bit naive and premature, wouldn’t you say? If the “Revolution” is over, that’s a damn quick “Revolution.” It doesn’t fit with the history of Revolutions, though. Do you deny Egypt is a Police State? I have no evidence that Egypt is still not a Police State despite the recent rebellion.
lambert strether
An interesting article on the role of labor, expanding on Ian’s point.
anon2525
I hope that the people of Egypt celebrate for a week.
Meanwhile, the news today is that in Algeria it is not going to be easy to follow what has happened so far in Egypt:
Unrest in Algeria Put Down by Police
The demonstrators gathered in May 1 Square, chanting “Bouteflika out!” in reference to President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who has ruled Algeria since 1999. Organizers said thousands had taken part, but news agencies gave vastly differing figures, from a few dozen to thousands.
…
The media spokesman for the coordinating committee seeking democratic change in Algeria said that 70 people had been arrested and that about 30 remained in detention. Those detained included the group’s main organizers, as well as human rights activists, union organizers, members of women’s associations and groups formed to track the missing and killed during the civil war in the 1990s.
Unfortunately, this is reported by the nytimes, so we’ll have to wait to find out what did not get through that censor.
Mandos
The great innovation of these events is that the world now knows that the Egyptian people have an opinion and it matters. Previously, the powers-that-are were pretty convinced that it didn’t matter. Regardless of how it really turns out in the long run, the Egyptian people have asserted that their opinion matters.
ks
Wow, what a silly and melodramatic response from Dana.
lambert strether
More on labor.
lambert strether
Yet more on labor.
Peter Hoppe
Dana, I think you misunderstand my cynicism. I firmly support the Egyptian people and this movement. And thankfully, calmer heads and tolerance prevailed. Imagine if everyone had a short fuse and expressed their emotions with such malice and anger like you did. Relax.
There may have been a victory here, but the military is still in power and has only removed their appointed leader. The military council has stood by Mubarak for 30 years while the people suffered in poverty and misery. I’m not ready to believe they are about to give up that power and relinquish control. Nor do I think they deserve the praise being heaped upon them. They might well be just taking a step backwards for the time being. Lets see.
So Dana, I enjoy this blog and the opinions shared. Please try to vent your aggression in a more constructive and mature manner.
Thank you.
Celsius 233
Peter Hoppe ;
So Dana, I enjoy this blog and the opinions shared. Please try to vent your aggression in a more constructive and mature manner.
==================================
+1 on that. Very painful to read that here. I would hope this angst will out in a healthier way in the future.
Celsius 233
On another note; it was very apparent to me that labor played a huge part in the final fall of Mubarack.
Amy Goodman covered that quite well on her program “Democracy Now”.
jcapan
Man, and I thought fuck was my word.
Any NFL angle here? Whose side are the Packers on?
Stormcrow
Z:
You wrote …
I’m not going to carry water for the Fed, but the recent rise in food prices has a driver much more direct and closer to facts on the ground than the Fed.
Ian blogged about this two weeks ago. He caught it.
Crop failures.
The breadcrumb trail lead me to this piece in the NYT from August 5 of last year: Russia, Crippled by Drought, Bans Grain Exports.
It looks like global warming is having the effect most of the planet’s climatologists have been warning us about for the last 20 god-forsaken years.
If I’m right about this, Mubarak’s overthrow is just the first scene of the first act, and the play is going to get very bloody indeed by Act 5.
Sam Adams
Goodbye MuBarak. So long Soliman, hello military dictatorship. So Egypt’s military dissolves parliament, says elections to take place in September.
Morocco Bama
Communique #4 has just been released. Here is a speech from the new president. Sweet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkYfmRwryQo&feature=related
Morocco Bama
Storm, exactly right, but I will add that the Plutocratic Oligarchy is using the crisis to further concentrate their wealth and positions via speculation which is having a significant amplifying effect on food and commodity prices, adding insult to injury.
The perturbations have begun. There will be many more. There Will Be Blood.
Celsius 233
^ 10/4 that! This is FAR from over…………
Ian Welsh
Food increases are exacerbated by QEII imo, but they are primarily driven by real shortages. Didn’t agree with Krugman on the oil increases in 07/8 (well, mostly) but I (mostly) agree about food.
So-called global warming is first showing up less as significant temp increases (though there is an upward trend), than as massive weather instability. Our societies have very little excess capacity to handle shocks, not least because we are a bunch of cheap profitizing idiots.
Z
Stormcrow,
I realize that there are other factors involved in the rise of food prices which was why I used the word “helped” in the sentence you quoted: “As a side note, the fed’s QEII, which is a transparent attempt at refurbishing the corrupt u.s. bank’s balance sheets and stoking inflation so that “our” nation’s debts can be repaid more easily, has IMO played a largely under appreciated role in this revolution becoz it HELPED lead to higher food prices.”
As Morocco Bama and Ian wrote, I think that the food price increases have been “amplified” or “exacerbated” as a consequence of the fed’s QEII.
Z
anon2525
Food increases are exacerbated by QEII imo, but they are primarily driven by real shortages. Didn’t agree with Krugman on the oil increases in 07/8 (well, mostly) but I (mostly) agree about food.
Worth taking into consideration is Yves Smith’s sharply-worded disagreement with Krugman (and I guess with Ian Welsh, too, now): Why the Krugman “I See No Commodities Speculation” Analysis is Flawed
Once again, congratulations to the Egyptians and the Tunisians (for whatever reason anyone wants to say are the reasons for their revolutions).
anon2525
Food increases are exacerbated by QEII imo, but they are primarily driven by real shortages. Didn’t agree with Krugman on the oil increases in 07/8 (well, mostly) but I (mostly) agree about food.
Worth taking into consideration is Yves Smith’s sharply-worded disagreement with Krugman (and I guess with Ian Welsh, too, now): Why the Krugman “I See No Commodities Speculation” Analysis is Flawed
Once again, congratulations to the Egyptians and the Tunisians (for whatever reason anyone wants to say are the reasons for their revolutions).
Celsius 233
My understanding is that there is no food shortage; there is actually a surplus. The problem is one of distribution, thus the appearance of shortages. This according to the U.N. My further understanding is that speculators are indeed driving up wheat and corn prices as well. The increasing use of food crops for fuel additives (bio-fuel) further exacerbates price increases. It seems we’re hell bent on putting a price on everything necessary for life; water, air, and food.
If that isn’t evidence of our imminent demise via self destructive greed and avarice then I don’t know what is…
Formerly T-Bear
It is only Al Jazeera reporting on record food prices, Dog’s in the details, note the number of countries that are stockpiling grains, the purchase of which adds to the speculative pressure on price. IIRC in the 60’s it was considered that less than three months supply of grains was a concerning margin; in Reagan’s 80’s that had dropped to a month’s reserve. Does anybody know what reserves are now considered sufficient? Does anyone recall what the meaning of the dream of seven fat cattle followed by seven lean was? Might the ice become dangerously thin, global heating and all?
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/2011/02/20112442413591195.html
Enjoy the facts, then make up your opinions!
Z
Another article on the labor movement’s role in the Egyptian uprising:
http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/516/why-mubarak-is-out
Z
Celsius 233
It’s becoming apparent the military is shutting down the democracy movement in Egypt. They have imposed Marshal law and revoked the freedom to assemble (if they ever had it). IMO, this is or will be a failed revolution; the powers behind the curtain (the U.S. & Egyptian military & Israel??) will not allow any civilians to govern unless they are hand picked and approved by the U.S., Israel, and the Egyptian military.
I’m very pessimistic and consider the Egyptian populace to be unfortunately naive and it seems they have lost the moment.
This doesn’t bode well for any human on this planet who has any sense of justice or individual freedom; totalitarianism seems to rule for the present and near future.
I’m not saying it can’t/won’t succeed; but if it does it’s going to be very bloody with thousands dead in the streets and secret prisons, because it’s going to take a no holds barred march to the streets and no cessation of public dissent, IMO.
Celsius 233
Just to be clear; I’m not taking anything away from the Egyptian people; what they did was remarkable and courageous but they were fooled into believing they won and they gave up to soon.
Formerly T-Bear
@ 233ºC
Al Jazeera has this offering:
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/2011214151133451212.html
that may have some answers not found in US media. What seems to cause you concern is the apparent continuity from the departed regime. Had there been a absolute break of the power structure it would have created a power vacuum into which any entity could have stepped; not necessarily a desired option by anyone except the power grabbing party. Political vacuums tend to produce unfavourable results. (Do not overlook the Turkish solution to political stability – the military as a counter-balance to political or theocratic excess).
Do consider several items the military has produced; they removed themselves from enforcing the regime’s demands of the protesters, supporting the protesters (eventually) by standing between the protesters and the (government) thugs halting further violence; the military council has incorporated the judiciary into its governing body to broaden its legal base and decision making legitimacy; It (as the Al Jazeera article points out) have removed the highly questionable legislature from access to power; as well as suspend the adverse constitution until it could be modified and ratified by a future plebiscite; have given an undertaking to restore civil government within 6 months or as soon as possible (as with any promise of future acts, some credibility is created by past performance, there being very little evidence of fact that this will NOT be done by the current military council (as opposed to prior supreme councils); the military has publicly stated the protesters demands will be met and has undertaken to enter into dialogue with various protester councils. It is not unexpected that the military would act to restore normalcy after such guarantees of demands and until there is evidence of duplicity in those acts, face value is, or should be the coin circulated. It easy enough to withdraw acceptance of the coin if it is shown to be base.
The Al Jazeera article is a good summary of what is being observed and presents the facts in a politically neutral narrative. Opinions not based on facts commonly lead to irrational or erroneous conclusions and provide coin for the propagandists. Patience grasshopper …
Celsius 233
Formerly T-Bear :
Grasshopper, LOL. Yes, all salient points and understood. I hope on hope your optimism is warranted.. My concerns are that few if any people, El Baradi a case in point, are being included in the formation of an interim governing body. All of those included so far are well entrenched and western leaning if not downright owned by the west. One of those (name escapes me at the moment) sat with Gates in the Pentagon as the revolution unfolded.
As one vulture said to another; patience my ass, I’m going to kill something! LOL.
As I’ve been saying for this whole situation; we’ll see. That’s still my considered position and my distrust of governments (mine especially) continues. Cheers Formerly T-Bear; always great to speak? with you.
Formerly T-Bear
Here are two more from Al Jazeera for your edification and information:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/201121563130198336.html
Ex Judge to head panel to address constitutional issues/re-writing. And:
http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/talktojazeera/2011/02/201121575542266481.html
Turkish Foreign Minister speaks about Israel, Egypt and regional stability (25 minutes).
The difference between Al Jazeera and US news media is striking, the later is second hand and second rate and subject to twists, bends and spin in its presentation. Generally US media has shown little if any validity in reportage and has effaced any semblance of trustworthiness. Thank Dog for world press that does its job as required.
Celsius 233
Formerly T-Bear
The difference between Al Jazeera and US news media is striking, the later is second hand and second rate and subject to twists, bends and spin in its presentation. Generally US media has shown little if any validity in reportage and has effaced any semblance of trustworthiness. Thank Dog for world press that does its job as required.
=======================================
Absolutely!! Al Jazeera rocks!
Celsius 233
^ Oh, and thanks for the links.
Peter Hoppe
Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. It seems that the giddiness and jubilation over the ousting of Mubarak was premature. As reported in some major dailies, including Canada’s Globe and Mail on February 14 (A rude awaking under military rule). Protesters remaining in Tahrir Square were removed by force by military and police wielding wooden sticks. The Military Council also issued a decree suspending the constitution, dissolving both houses of parliament and making the Chairman of the council, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the country’s head of state. Wide open term of office. No date set for elections.