Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

When Financiers Win, They Lose

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On June 4, 2025

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One of the simplest lenses to look at an industrial society is whether it’s run by financiers or capitalists.

Socrates famously noted that some people live to eat and others eat to live.

Capitalists need money so they can do things. Financiers do things so they can get money. To a financier it doesn’t matter how money is made, so long as they won’t go to prison. All that matters is rate of return.

A capitalist has something they want to do: Ford wanted to build cars. Edison wanted to invent. The Wright Brothers wanted to fly. They need money so they can do whatever it is that turns their crank.

Capitalists create great societies. Financiers destroy them.

As soon as rate of return becomes the only consideration, a society becomes less interested in doing new things or doing old things well and starts searching for “unfair advantages.” They offshore and outsource jobs to lower cost domiciles: either for labor or for environmental regulations. They seek a monopoly or oligopoly positions in businesses where people have to buy: healthcare is the gold standard. They buy functioning businesses and load them up with debt. The business dies, but they are richer than they would have been had they run it.

Systematically they run the economy down. They become rich, but the society suffers.

This isn’t to say that finance isn’t necessary. As the saying runs “financiers make good servants and terrible masters.” But when finance becomes the primary driver of any economy: when it becomes a better way to get rich than being a capitalist, they ruin societies.

You can see this clearly in the West, especially in America and Britain. Sixty percent of people now can’t afford a decent lifestyle in the US, but America has the richest rich who ever lived.

This may seem like a victory for financiers, but it’s a Pyrric on. Yes, the America’s rich in 1950 or 1980 or even 2000 were not nearly as rich as America’s rich today, BUT America was the most powerful nation in the world, with the strongest economy. Now American elites are filthy rich, but rule of the second strongest economy, and China is pulling away from them: the difference is accelerating.

Do you want to be king shit of turd mountain? That’s the choice that America’s elites made. “Our country will suck ass and no longer be dominant but we will be rich, rich, rich!”

Ask Britain’s elites how that worked out. Would you rather be a British industrialist in 1870 or today, even if today you’re richer?

And as financialization destroys a country, that money matters less and less. In time, American elites will have to buy the best from China: cars, planes, electronics, etc, etc… Most of what they really want, America won’t make, because America will be backwards.

All this before losing the joys of being a super power.

Financialization is the destruction of countries, and the elites who pursue it lose more than they gain. Better to be a millionaire in 1955’s America, than a billionaire in America today, because wealth is always trumped by power.

Since it started in 2019 this blog has had over 16,000 articles. That’s a lot of writing. If you value it, I’d appreciate it if you would donate or subscribe by clicking on this link. It makes a difference and it keeps me writing.

The Best Short Summary Of Why China Is Winning & The West Fading

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On June 2, 2025

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It’s about living in reality:

The main difference between American and Chinese society today is less that one has more dumb people and one has more smart people and more that within public life being stupid is relentlessly shamed as stupid in one and being smart is relentlessly shamed as stupid in the other.

These days American society assigns intelligence credentials based not on who can demonstrate a meticulous well developed understanding of how anything works but who can give the most smart sounding post hoc rationalization for half baked ideas people desperately want to be true.

If you do the former and it yields answers people don’t like they’ll reach deep into their bag of fantasyland narratives to try to invalidate your credibility. If you provide the latter you’re celebrated not only as a genius but a champion and when things don’t work as promised…

They’ll have already sunk so much personal credibility and self esteem into the fantasy they’d rather burrow deeper into delusion than backtrack. In other words “smart” is whatever helps nurse fragile self esteems rather than whatever helps them understand and work with reality.

In Chinese society today intelligence is still very much a consequential trait that demands its keep via real effective results. In America it’s turned into another fake self esteem signifier in a culture that’s long stopped caring about anything but fake self esteem signifiers.

I observed this a long time ago, personally. I had predicted the financial crisis, right down to the month. I had been right about Iraq and a variety of other important issues. I was discussing the “Arab Spring”, and said “it isn’t over till the army votes.”

There was argument back and forth and I said, in effect, “look, I have a track record and so do you. I’m usually right and you’re usually wrong.”

The response was furious and I was booted off that particular forum.

In my last major blog role as managing editor, I was able to increase traffic 60% in less than a year and hold onto most of it after the election of Barack Obama. Other Netroots sites were bleeding readers, but not us. I could say exactly what had been done to increase traffic. But the publisher was sure they knew better, so I left. That site no longer exists.

People who were for the Iraq war, who made claims that it would work and be easy are now major pundits. Both Matt Yglesias and Ezra Klein were for the war. Indeed, Yglesias wanted to take out all of Iraq, Iran and North Korea. A study in the L.A. Times found that media figures against the war were fired, laid off or had their careers stagnate. Those who were for it had their careers prosper.

A correspondent once did a serious search on who had been right, in public and in advance, about the financial crisis. The number was in the 40s. That means that almost no economists, the people who, you know, study this stuff and claim to know something, predicted an obvious bubble. You only had to look at a couple charts. It wasn’t rocket surgery.

For most of my life development economists claimed that free trade without protection for local industry was how countries should industrialize and that they should move to cash crops and sell commodities. Every country that tried this failed. The ones who succeeded at industrializing did so behind some form of protection for new industry: China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and so on. They certainly didn’t double down on commodities. The only thing that has ever worked is exactly what development economists advised against.

Fools like Francis Fukuyama became famous and wealthy by saying nonsense things like democracy and capitalism being two sides of the same coin and the end of history had arrived. Those of us who warned that it mattered where industry was, and that sending your industry to other countries was the equivalent of shipping away your power and prosperity were sneered at.

Climate change has, for decades, come in “over”, which is to say worse, than the consensus predictions. Almost every single bad event has happened sooner than the IPCC said it would. You’d think, after a while, they’d ask themselves “why are we getting this wrong all the time?” and correct. If you can’t figure out why, just look at the windage, make your predictions, then add the average error rate. “Events usually happen X% sooner than our models predict, so here’s the dates taking that into account.”

It’s not rocket surgery.

Most Western pundits thought that Ukraine would “win” a war against Russia. No. Pundits told us over and over again that NATO expansion wouldn’t cause a war. Wrong. Pundits told us that Russia was weak compared to NATO and that GDP accurately measured their strength. Pundits thought that sanctions would collapse the Russian economy, not taking into account that China had a veto over that, and reason to use it.

In every single case the discourse had and has been seized by what people want to believe, or what oligarchs want people to believe: what pays, not what is true. There are no consequences for being wrong, and no self awareness. I am bad at electoral predictions. So when I make one I always note that I suck and am probably a negative indicator. (I though Harris would win, for example, though I did get the Canadian election right.)

Now it isn’t entirely true that there’s no accountability in the West. There is. There is only one rule that the West insists always be followed:

The rich must keep becoming richer, no matter the cost to anyone or anything else.

Because that is the only form of Western accountability, the West will keep losing, because richer rich and higher inequality do not cause or even correlate with any of the main constituents of power, prosperity or technological progress

Our entire discourse system, our entire media, and our entire elites have zero accountability except for making the rich, richer.

At this they have succeeded, and at nothing else.

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 1, 2025

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On June 1, 2025

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 1, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

 

Strategic Political Economy

Why Are They Trying to Kill Us?

Conor Gallagher, May 28, 2025 [Naked Capitalism]

For all the talk of how incompetent our elites are, there’s one area where they show remarkable skill and determination: relentlessly creating conditions to shorten the lifespans of the disabled, poor, and working class.

Let’s look at just a few of the many examples before examining potential reasons it’s becoming so much more brazen.

In the US, policies to hurt the working poor and disabled are nothing new, but they’ve exploded in scope in recent years. Elites have collectively memory-holed an ongoing pandemic that has thus far officially killed more than 1.2 million (although that number is likely much higher), disabled many more, and fallen disproportionately on the working class and disabled….

The US official line is now openly that such weak people simply aren’t worth the investment….

In the telling of RFK Jr. and friends, public healthcare coddles the weak, which is real soft Nazi stuff. As Derek Beres puts it:

By avoiding discussion of education, employment, social support networks, economic status and geographic location – the social determinants that public health experts agree influence health outcomes – Kennedy, in lockstep with top wellness influencers, is practicing soft eugenics.

But let’s not forget that the Biden administration was in some cases outdoing the current one….

The cuts to disability benefits will decimate quality of life, erode services, and lead to earlier deaths, but that appears to be the point. Again, though, this is nothing new. A report published last year by the Institute of Health Equity at University College London, finds that between 2011 and 2019, 1,062,334 premature deaths were recorded among individuals living outside the wealthiest 10% of areas in England mostly due to poverty and austerity measures….

What is central to all these Western countries? Neoliberalism. Is it surprising that an ideology that says markets are more important than people would completely hand over social policy to the wealthiest and embrace eugenics?….

 

Republican Senator to Medicaid Cuts Protesters — ‘We’re All Going to Die’

[Newsweek, May 30, 2025]

During a tense exchange with protesters at a town hall, Republican Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa responded to concerns over potential Medicaid cuts by declaring, “Well, we are all going to die.”

YouTube video

www.youtube.com/…

GOP’s Latest Pitch for Gutting Medicaid and Food Aid? ‘Well, We All Are Going to Die’

Jake Johnson, May 30, 2025 [CommonDreams]

“We’re at the point where a U.S. senator is saying healthcare and hunger don’t matter because we all die eventually.”

 

Musk’s Legacy of Death vs the Rising Movement for Life

William J. Barber, II and Jonathan Wilson-Hartgrove, May 30, 2025 [Our Moral Moment w/ Bishop William Barber & Jonathan Wilson-Hartgrove]

…DOGE is a scam, but its consequences are real. According to research at Boston University, more than 300,000 people have died because of the careless cuts Musk made to the USAID program, decimating US investment in fighting hunger and disease around the world….

… we know every lie has its limits in a universe that is held together by truth. No lie can live forever, just as no tyrant can abuse power without eventually facing consequences. People can be deceived. We can be distracted. We can even be self-absorbed. But when death draws near enough to touch us, people also have an innate instinct to live.

This is what we see: life is rising up in people to cry out for life.

That’s what we hear in the graduation speeches that are calling young people to stand for truth and in the judicial decisions that are making clear that Trump’s abuse of power is illegal. Life is rising up to cry for life in protests and direct actions, in legal motions and in petitions to members of Congress. At Moral Mondays in DC, which will continue this coming Monday, June 2nd, we’ve witnessed life welling up in people who refuse to accept the unnecessary death.

How do we stop the lie? This is the question we hear most these days. It’s at the center of our prayers. This is what we know: we stop the lie by standing with the people who are most directly harmed by it….

According to the Public Religion Research Institute’s Robert P. Jones, who publishes on Substack at White Too Long, “If you look at the population as a whole, only 30% of American adults cast a vote for Trump in 2024. There’s no legitimate way to read this election as a blank check for the destructive attacks on our nation’s basic values and institutions.”….

 

This dashboard visualizes the human impact of funding changes for aid and support organizations.

[impactcounter.com, via Our Moral Moment]

Deaths caused by Funding Discontinuation

99,639 Adult Deaths

207,911 Child Deaths

Deaths Per Hour 103

 

A Storm in the West: The Liberal Intellectual Paradigm Is Broken 

A. Crooke [Conference paper, via Naked Capitalism 05-25-2025]

…The real action in the US is not happening in seminars at Brookings or in op-eds in the New York Times. It is happening backstage, out of sight; beyond the reach of polite society, and mostly off-script. America is undergoing a transformation more akin to what befell Rome in the age of Augustus. Which is to say, the main happening is the collapse of a paralytic élite order, and the consequent unfolding of new political projects….

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [mediaite.com]

By Calling More Than Half the Country ‘Scum,’ Trump Is Raising a Bright Red Flag

Thom Hartmann, May 27, 2025 [Common Dreams]

When political leaders use dehumanizing language to vilify their opponents, they’re in actuality laying the groundwork for authoritarianism, repression, and violence.

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Us vs. Them / Our Government vs. The Government

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On May 30, 2025

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I think it’s clear that democracy and capitalism don’t work together. Capitalists always wind up buying the government, and the only solution is a Great Depression sized catastrophe to reset the wealth of capitalists. But then, over time, they will capture the government again.

This isn’t to say much good may not be done at various times. Usually after things get bad enough, a generation winds up in power who is determined to make government work “for the people” because they’ve seen what happens when it doesn’t. War, revolution, poverty, depression and so on. The second generation staggers on. They don’t really understand in their bones that government must be made to work for the people, and they compromise, but they keep it more or less going. Then the third generation says “hey, if we ran the government for us and the people who can afford to pay us the most, well, we could live very very well, and who cares about the “people?”

Often the third generation needs to lie to themselves. They believe some intellectual charlatans: Milton Friedman and Laffer and later on Fukuyama of the “we’ve won, it’s all over, it’s the end of history!” The fourth generation doesn’t even pretend. It’s their government, and you peons can suck it up. (Everyone from Bush Jr. on. Bush Sr. thought that neoliberalism was garbage, even as he implemented some of it. Billy Clinton appears to have been a true believer and made it work on sheer brilliance and micromanagement.)

But there’s another problem with representative government: much like police, most people who want the power of government are the sort of people who shouldn’t have it.

What happens, one way or the other, is that government is run by people who run it for themselves, not for the people. It’s “the government”, nor “our government.”

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this, and I’ve come down on the side of sortition. Just pick leaders based on a lottery. Then run some medical tests on the ones chosen, to make sure they aren’t chronically sick or mentally disabled. Give them 10 year terms so they are in long enough to have some institutional knowledge and have elections every two years for one-fifth of the number.

Anyone who serves gets a full pension of three times median income for the rest of their lives, and is disallowed from any other income. If you aren’t willing to do that, you can decline office.

I’m quite positive that random people who know that they’re going back to being almost regular citizens whose income is dependent on how society performs in the future will do a better job than normal politicians.

Oh, there are plenty of details to sort out, to be sure, but this is far more likely to produce “our government” than the current regime.

The next article on this subject will be on the next important change: how we do taxation—how people contribute to “our government” and “society”. Taxing money is not the right way.

 

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

China Is Going to Win the AI Race

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On May 28, 2025

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Yeah, it doesn’t seem that way, but it’s how it will turn out. What China’s doing is embracing actual open AI (unlike the company named Open AI). Open source and open standards. Everyone outside North America and maybe Europe is going to prefer that, and those who set the standards control the tech. On top of that, American AI is frighteningly expensive; no one in the US is making any money. Every query costs more to produce than is earned, even from customers who are paying, let alone all the free accounts.

Deepseek is much less expensive per query, however. The idea of capitalism is to, y’know, make money? There’s a limit to how much money Softbank can throw at AI if it doesn’t start providing at least some returns.

Further, American-style AI requires massive amounts of energy, and guess who produces the equipment needed to quickly build more generation capacity? (If you need more than one guess, you haven’t been paying attention.)

Every hyper-scale or “AI-ready” data-centre campus needs its own sub-station and a bank of step-down transformers big enough to deliver 50-150 MVA per site. Add the grid-side upgrades that utilities must make to back-feed those loads, and each incremental gigawatt of GPU capacity pulls several hundred megavolt-amps (MVA) of new LPT demand.

Roughly 80 percent of U.S.’s large power transformers (LPT≥100 MVA) are imported and lead-times have ballooned from 50 weeks (2021) to 120-210 weeks (2024), and the lone domestic GOES mill provides only a fraction of what new AI loads will require.

China dominates both finished-unit exports and nearly half of global GOES output; it also supplies critical sub-components such as tap-changers and bushings. GOES now fall under Beijing’s 25 percent retaliatory-tariff list and new export-licence regime.

Export licensing is China’s retaliation for the US “don’t sell China chips or lithography machines” regime. I’m sure they won’t drag their feet or outright deny exports to the US, when the US has explicitly restricted “AI” chips to attempt to cripple China’s AI industry. I mean, turnabout isn’t fair play, amiright?

Thing is, China has proved very good at using what they can get, or make themselves, and they’re making fast progress on chips, with the possibility of creating a new class of chips which out-performs anything the US has looking very likely. The US, on the other hand, cannot ramp up production of transformers on any reasonable timescale.

Reap, sow. Fuck around, find out, etc.

As for AI destroying all jobs, well, no. It makes mistakes too often, and in anything that matters even a one or two percent serious error rate is unacceptable.

I, at least, will laugh myself sick when Silicon Valley gets its lunch eaten by the Chinese on AI. I mean, it’s sad, because Silicon Valley bros are so humble, never brag and never lord it over anyone else. It’s not like they’re assholes whose entire business model is based on gouging and taking value from everyone else, and it’s not like modern “AI” is based on the most vast theft of other people’s work in history.

And them Chinese, man, who do they think they are? Embracing open licenses and open standards and actually trying to make a profit, like they have real competitive markets or something? Commies can’t do Capitalism better than America!

 

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

The End of America as the Essential Consumer Nation

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On May 26, 2025

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For ages, everyone needed access to the American market. I used to call the US, “the consumer of last resort.” If you wanted to get rich, if you wanted to industrialize, if you wanted to scale, you needed the American market. Europe sold to the US, Japan sold to the US, South Korean and China sold to the US. This requirement is why Japan was forced to sign the Plaza Accords, which basically destroyed their future. Oh, life in Japan is fine now, but it’s no longer the roaring Tiger of the 80s.

But the US has lost its place, which is why China was able to laugh in its face when Trump tried to use tariffs against it. His assumption was that China needed the American market. This was true 20 years ago, maybe true ten years ago, but it’s not true now.

But wait… there’s more!

Not so pretty, is it? And unlike America, Chinese consumers aren’t in debt. Their market isn’t based on a deck of cards or predatory lending meant to lock consumers into never ending debt payments.

Looks a lot like America in the 50s and 60s, actually.

China’s growing fast, and certain respects, they’re growing smart.

China is building nuclear plants 2 to 4 times faster than the West and 3 to 7 times cheaper”

Further, China is building far more renewable energy than anyone else, and MAGidiots beliefs aside, it’s working out just fine for them. Ninety percent of new power in China is renewable.

You can see this on this lovely map:

Indeed, for the first time ever, China’s increasing energy demand happened at the same time as a reduction in CO2 production. If there’s a hope for us on climate change (there really isn’t, but still) it’s that China is the primary industrial power AND its leaders and population aren’t idiots who think climate change is a hoax or that it’s real but ignoring it is good for the economy.

Now this isn’t to say that China’s all wonderful or anything. They have high speed trains and they’re electrifying based on renewable energy and to a much lesser extent nuclear fast, but they still have an insane car-centric society.

Still, they’re more sane than any other major country, by a fair margin.

China is now the world’s largest consumer, industrial producer, ship builder, drone maker, auto manufacturer, leads in about 80% of tech fields, produces more scientific papers and patents than any other country, has 8 of the world’s top 10 research universities (Harvard is the only American university on the list, at , but…. recent events are not promising), the most electricity production and the cleanest energy mix of any major country.

The idea that China and the US have a serious rivalry is laughable. The US has lost. It’s like Britain in 1920. It’s all over, except, possibly, for the shooting.

 

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 25, 2025

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On May 25, 2025

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 25, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

 

The (anti)Federalist Society assault on the Constitution, Part 1

GOP Budget Would Make It Even Harder to Hold Trump Administration in Contempt

Shawn Musgrave, May 24 2025 [The Intercept]

…The looming showdown over the judiciary’s power to issue contempt orders stems from a single sentence tucked into the thousand-page budget bill, which passed the House of Representatives by a single vote on Thursday.

“This is a slap in the face to the concept of separation of powers,” said a spokesman for Senator Chris Coons (D-Del.).

If enacted, the provision — found on page 544 out of 1,082 — would restrict how federal judges can hold government officials or other litigants in contempt if they defy court-issued injunctions and restraining orders. Contempt is the primary enforcement mechanism available to courts, and in cases around the country judges have weighed whether to issue contempt findings against President Donald Trump’s deputies….

Although this is technically a budget bill, items in it from that wish list include a significant restriction on “the authority of federal courts to hold government officials in contempt when they violate court orders,” as Dean of Berkeley Law School Erwin Chemerinsky explained in Just Security Monday. “Without the contempt power,” he writes, “judicial orders are meaningless and can be ignored.”

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

 

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [mediaite.com]

 

Debating Trump “Ambush” of South African President With “White Genocide’ Lies

Yves Smith, May 22, 2025 [Naked Capitalism]
Trump’s goals were clear. I wrote yesterday that he was pushing the phony “white genocide” narrative to:
  • Retaliate against South Africa for going to the ICJ regarding the actual genocide in Gaza, to get them to back off more.
  • Cheapen the public discourse over “genocide” — helping turn it into just another meaningless slur.
  • Make it seem like Trump is standing up for alleged oppressed white folks, to play to some white working-class voters who don’t perceive that it’s actually — again — for Israel (similar to how they repackaged Palestine protests as an immigration issue).
  • Push back against BRICS to the extent it’s challenging US establishment dominance, or appears to be doing so.

He lectured him on alleged abuses in South Africa and Ramaphosa was at best doing a diplomatic defense.

Trump orders the government to stop enforcing rules he doesn’t like

Maxine Joselow, Hannah Natanson and Ian Duncan [Washington Post, via downwithtyranny.com 5-19-2025]

At the Transportation Department, enforcement of pipeline safety rules has plunged to unprecedented lows since President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Trump recently ordered Energy Department staff to stop enforcing water conservation standards for showerheads and other household appliances. And at one Labor Department division, his appointees have instructed employees to halt most work related to antidiscrimination laws.
Across the government, the Trump administration is trying a new tactic for gutting federal rules and policies that the president dislikes: simply stop enforcing them.
“The conscious effort to slow down enforcement on such a broad scale is something we have never seen in previous administrations,” said Donald Kettl, a professor emeritus at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. “It amounts to a dramatic assertion of presidential power and authority.”
This account of the Trump administration’s efforts to scale back application of many laws is based on interviews with more than a dozen federal employees across seven agencies, as well as a review of internal documents and federal data….
In some cases, Trump has personally ordered a halt to enforcement. The president on May 9 signed a memorandum directing the Energy Department “not to enforce” what he called “useless” water conservation standards for home appliances including bathtubs, faucets, showerheads and toilets….

 

Heather Cox Richardson, May 20, 2025 [Letters from an American]

Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem was testifying before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee about the Department of Homeland Security’s budget for fiscal year 2026. When Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH) asked her to define “habeas corpus,” Noem’s response indicated she has no understanding of the nation’s fundamental law.

“Habeas corpus is a constitutional right that the president has to be able to remove people from this country,” Noem said. Hassan corrected her: “Habeas corpus is the legal principle that requires that the government provide a public reason for detaining and imprisoning people. If not for that protection, the government could simply arrest people, including American citizens, and hold them indefinitely for no reason. Habeas corpus is the foundational right that separates free societies like America from police states like North Korea.”

 

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The Russian Way of War and Why They Are Fighting in the Ukraine

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On May 25, 2025

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I was reminded of this long post of mine from August of last year whilst listening to this fellow talking about the the Russian way of war and attritional war. He says,“If you have any idea about Russia’s history at war, you will see time and time again, from Charles the XII of Sweden to Napoleon to Stalin, the ability to absorb catastrophic initial losses over a number of years to then having large wins later on, and we are seeing this.”

I would simply add that the Russians trade space for time. Remember that Ukrainian Offesive in 2023 that was gonna end the war?

I recommend history. Read correctly history is much more like reading prophecy.

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