Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Information Overlord: AI Doomers Up to No Good, House of Saud or House of Cards?

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On September 18, 2026

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Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

From me this week

From me at the Let It Roll Podcast

From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw

Me Elsewhere

AI Bubble

Iran War

  • Steve Jermy: End of U.S. Military Primacy – New Strategic Thinking Required — YouTube
  • Republican launches impeachment effort against Pete Hegseth over Iran war — USA Today. “Frances Farmer will have her revenge on Seattle/She’ll come back as fire to burn all the liars/Leave a blanket of ash on the ground”
  • Experts Declare Fuel Crisis Imminent as Global Wars Choke Out Supply — Simplicius. “This type of short-sighted, bumbling diplomacy is like haphazardly putting out random fires one at a time, all while inadvertently starting new ones. Trump thinks the US can act recklessly hostile against the entire world, unscrupulously supplying weapons to Ukraine to destroy major sectors of Russian infrastructure, ruthlessly attacking Iran, etc., and then wonders why the blowback is starting to poison the domestic economy.”
  • The Collapse of American Hegemony and Global Nuclear Risks — The Unz Review. “Raised in a family of Iranian exiles, Trita Parsi came from a background that was less than friendly towards the Islamic Republic. A few years ago, he became co-founder and vice president of the very respectable Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. That organization advocates realism and restraint in foreign policy, with its major donors being leading American foundations, including Open Society, Koch, Ford, Carnegie, and Rockefeller. “And as Parsi explained in a recent interview, “The United States and Israel threw everything they had at Iran and they failed. As a result, the Iranians are far more confident in their capabilities than they were before.” Meanwhile, regional trust in America had completely collapsed, with the GCC countries recognizing that America could not protect them against Iranian retaliation.”
  • The End of the American Middle East — Foreign Affairs. “The American Middle East is finished. The regional order that has prevailed since 1991 has been one of the many casualties of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The American and Israeli failure to dislodge the regime in Tehran has proved the bankruptcy of decades of sanctions and violence. The inability of the United States to protect its Gulf allies from Iranian attacks or to keep the Strait of Hormuz open has fatally undermined the core security bargain that justified its network of military bases in the region. And Israel’s increasingly threatening posture and abandonment of any pretense of interest in reaching an accommodation with the Palestinians have ended Washington’s decades-long mission of bringing its Arab allies and Israel together into an enduring security partnership.”
  • Maximum Pressure on Iran Will Fail — Foreign Affairs. “Trump’s War Has Brought American Strategy to a Dead End”
  • Alastair Crooke: West Asia Is Incubating a New Era of Revolutions — “A Decisive and Historic Stage” — YouTube

Ukraine

  • Ukraine: “It’s not a tragedy it’s a crime” — YouTube. “I’ve lived in Ukraine for 5 years. I’ve had a lot of Ukrainian friends, even if I’ve probably lost all of them because we see things very differently now. But still, I actually take Ukraine very seriously. I know the language. And it’s it’s not a tragedy. It’s a crime how ordinary Ukrainians are being sacrificed by their puppet regime and by Western governments who have a sick dream of inflicting a geopolitical setback on Russia. It’s a sick dream under any circumstances. What makes it even more insane is it’s totally futile. In the end, hundreds of thousands, maybe over a million Ukrainians will be dead and they on top of it will lose the war. And this is what von der Leyen wants to go on for even longer. Unbelievable. And in this case, Lavrov made some extraordinary statement about the legitimacy of the Ukrainian statehood itself.”
  • Ukraine Will Be a Cancer on Europe and Russia. Iran a Quagmire for the USA | Amb. Chas Freeman — YouTube. Ambassador Freeman is one of the few wise men left.

Saudi Oil Crisis

Gaza

Israel

Palestine

  • The Loneliness of a Long-Distance Pro-Palestine Israeli — Alon Mizrahi. “We are not the victims here, the story is not about us, and we by no means can replace Palestinian voices. Still, the truth is what it is, and you pay a price for being an anti-Zionist Israeli/Jew”

US Politics

Elections 2026

Economy

  • The Structural Incentives Of Western Capitalism Make Competing With China Impossible — Ian Welsh. “The reason VW and other German firms made so much money in China for so long is that they had, brace for it, better cars. More technologically advanced. Better handling. “But…they didn’t try and keep that lead. They let the Chinese beat them by refusing to properly re-invest their profits. “This is a constant problem in the West: our elites don’t want to compete on price. They don’t want to compete on quality. They want “moats” — they want monopoly profits just for existing.”

Ari Emanuel

Sports Business

Music

Alt Media

Predictive markets

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Doom, As Predicted

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On September 17, 2026

27 Comments

Sigh:

Regular readers will know I have been predicting this for some time. And understand that this is before the effects of Yemen basically shutting off Saudi oil and natural gas entirely because of shipping times.

Diesel is what farmers use. It’s what truckers use. It’s what most mining equipment uses. Much construction equipment. It’s probably more important for the operation of domestic economies than gasoline. Add to this fertilizer shortages, because much of the precursors come from the Middle East, and we’re in a world of hurt. Next up, bunker fuel, the stuff used to run freighters and tankers and without which international trade crashes to a halt, since shipping the is backbone of international trade.

Meanwhile the international bond market is freaking out:

Ouch.

Also ouch.

Are you sick of all the winning yet?

The Feds also increased the Federal reserve rate yet again, and indicated there may be another raise before the end of year.

Perhaps you’ve wondered why high interest rates are used to cool inflation? It’s because borrowing costs are a cost for businesses and individuals: when they go up, people have less money, and thus spend less. This leads to what economists like to call “demand destruction.”

Demand destruction means less economic activity, and enough of it causes recessions and shitty economies, and that’s in addition to the fact that expensive or insufficient fuel will also lead to a shitty economy.

And by shitty economy I mean that I expect to see actual food riots in multiple countries next year. This crisis is one of choice, and on top of that since there was no proper rationing which made sure that diesel and fertilizer and so on got to those parts of the economy which needed it most (yes, that means farmers in particular, but not just them) we’re going to be in a world of hurt.

Everyone with diesel refining who hasn’t already will put exports controls on at the least. That means if your country doesn’t produce enough, it’s not going to be able to buy enough otherwise. Yet another case of “no, you can’t buy anything that matters when it really matters.” Food exports will likely be restricted as well. Can your country feed itself? A lot can’t: for example Britain.

In personal terms I re-iterate. If you can afford to, start and stocking up on staples, medicine, fuel and so on. If you don’t need them, great, you’ll use them up in time anyway, but odds are you will need them and at the least, even if your locale doesn’t have physical shortages, be assured prices WILL rise.

This isn’t a theoretical matter any more, or a case of “later” as it was when I gave these warnings months ago. It’s happening now and it’s going to get worse. The only route out (and even then there’ll be problems, because rebuilding takes time) is for America to admit it lost the war and go to peace on Iranian terms and for Saudi Arabia to do the same with Yemen. All this nonsense about repairing the Saudi pipeline is almost meaningless because Yemen can hit it again and again and has no reason not to until the Sauds end their blockade.

This is a three alarm fire in the economy. The basis of the economy is on fire, and the fire is out of control and spreading. Act accordingly.

 

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

Joe Biden’s Three Genocides in Four Years: Ukraine Part 2

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On September 16, 2026

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With the toxic and stupid Trump 2.0 regime collapsing in the polls and the useless Democratic establishment licking their chops at the prospect of another electoral gimme in 2026, it’s more important than ever to rub shitlibs’ faces in the abysmal and inexcusable record of the murderous Biden administration.

If we keep voting blue no matter who, we’re gonna keep getting what we got.

In the interest of the public good, therefore, I make my humble offering, attempting to chronicle the three mass death events the senile husk of Joe Biden nominally presided over in his four years in the White House.

I covered COVID first. That was a debacle that many Democrats exclusively blame on Donald Trump and many GOPers and Independents have concluded was a hoax or some shit, but the reality is (as brilliantly documented by Lambert Strether at Naked Capitalism in real time) that Biden’s deliberately negligent policies resulted in the death and disabling of over one million Americans.

Next I covered Biden’s role in provoking the Ukraine War from 1992-2008 as a powerful US Senator who never met a war that didn’t give him a stiffy.

Now we’re going to get to the grit, because Vice-President Biden had Ukraine as part of his portfolio under POTUS Obama from 2009-2016 and we all know what he did as President, even if some dumbasses still insist he bears no responsibility for the disaster he spent decades making.

No, Ukraine Is Not ‘Winning’

First I want to establish some facts about the current state of consensus reality by citing some very pro-Ukraine, pro-war authorities who are throwing in the towel.

I’m going to save a few thousand words by using images of the relevant headlines.

Up first, from The Spectator (UK) one of the most blood-thirsty, Russia-hating publications in the English speaking world:

From the “liberal” Wall Street Journal:

From former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who’s made killing Russians his passion project for years now, in the Jeff Bezos-owned Washington Post (who had to give it multiple headlines so as not to upset sensitive pro-war liberal readers):

HT Simplicius

With that out of the way, let’s get into the time machine, loser, and go back with me to a time when a young Black President that so many Americans had invested with their “Hope and Change” fantasies needed to have an old racist white guy next to him at all times to make idiots and assholes feel comfortable patting themselves on the back for voting for a Black president.

And note, the point isn’t to excuse Putin for his actions. I’m not Russian, Putin’s not my responsibility. I do have the sense to treat Russia with respect, because I’m a student of history and I don’t know of a single instance where fucking with Russia ever ended up in anything but disaster whether for the Swedish Empire, Napoleon’s France, or Hitler’s Germany.

I’m an American and I’m concerned with the conduct of the elected officials who are supposed to be representing me.

Get In, Loser, We’re Going to Kyiv

Biden wasted no time in building upon the disastrous actions of the Bush/Cheney regime at the 2008 Bucharest summit which called for Georgia and Ukraine to be invited to join NATO. By July 2009, on his first trip to Ukraine as Vice-President Biden was already in Kyiv (we spelled it Kiev back then) lecturing Ukraine’s leadership and then flying off to Tbilisi telling them that NATO membership would be cost free (this is after they’d already had their heads cracked in the 2008 Russo-Georgian War that followed immediately on the heels of the Bucharest summit. Anyone remember John McCain saying “We’re all Georgians now”, as he tried to campaign for President on his desire to drag America into a war in a place few had heard of?).

Here’s some of what Biden said on that first visit to Kyiv in 2009, per the Christian Science Monitor which gave Biden that kind of tough guy headline (“Biden’s tough love for Ukraine”) that got him all riled up and gropy with the females on his staff:

Vice President Joe Biden had some surprisingly pointed comments for Ukrainians yesterday.

Speaking in front of 400 Ukrainians in a speech that was billed as an address to the nation’s citizens, Biden chastised Ukrainian officials for, among other things, their immaturity in dealing with inter-party conflicts. Evoking poet Taras Shevchenko, a national icon, Biden said Shevchenko would likely “be wondering why the government is not exhibiting the same political maturity as the people.”

Reforms have stalled and political bickering has become widespread after Ukraine‘s 2004 Orange Revolution. Coupled with neighboring Georgia‘s Rose Revolution a year earlier, the Orange Revolution was a source of hope for Western countries that democracy could take hold in states of the former Soviet Union.

Frustrated by the stalemate and lack of progress, Ukrainians have showed signs of throwing their support to opposition leader Viktor F. Yanukovich, a move that would more closely align the country with Russia and, according to some, could tip the country back toward authoritarian rule.

Biden’s remarks seem to indicate that Ukrainians aren’t the only ones who are frustrated. The vice president was expected to address Washington’s concerns only behind closed doors, according to the Wall Street Journal, and the weight of his public remarks were unexpected.

“Centuries from now, what will Ukrainians say of this time?” he said. “What will they say of their leaders? Will they say they returned to the past, or will they say the beginning of the 21st century launched a period of prosperity, freedom and independence?”

But lest the news out of Ukraine been seen as all harsh, Biden was also overheard praising the country’s women. “It’s certain you have so many beautiful women,” Biden is reported to have told President Viktor Yushchenko at an unscheduled visit to a Kiev pub.

What a charmer. Note that bit about the “color revolutions” in Ukraine and Georgia. At the time I thought all that shit was organic and awesome. I also thought Gene Sharp was the greatest man since Gandhi.

I’d love to get a poll of Ukrainians today on whether they think following the US and NATO down the garden path to war with Russia was “the beginning of…a period of prosperity, freedom and independence?”

But let’s keep moving.

How’d That Russian Fleet Get In Crimea? Oh Yea, Legally

Turns out the Ukrainians did, in fact, democratically elect the pro-Russian President Yanukovych. Biden’s visits to the country cease for the full duration of Yanukovych’s term.

Yanukovych signed something called the Kharkiv Pact, which extended the Russian Navy’s lease on Sevastopol for 25 years to 2042 in return for a major discount on natural gas. The Accord easily survived an opposition attempt to renounce it in 2013 in the Rada.

The Yanukovych administration also oversaw the passage of a law that forbade Ukraine from entering into military alliances with anyone. Neutrality is always the first step to fascism, war, and disaster, as all Swiss people know.

2013: Ukraine Caught Between the EU and Russia in Trade Tug of War

Shit hit the fan in November 2013 when Yanukovych backed out of the EU Association Agreement, suggesting instead the “creation of a tripartite commission of Ukraine, the EU and Russia, which would work to remove barriers in mutual economic cooperation and trade liberalisation.”

Yanukovych’s reasons couldn’t have been more sinister and inexplicable, per the OSW:

In the context of the upcoming presidential elections in early 2015, where victory is a priority for Ukraine’s ruling elite, President Viktor Yanukovych’s most important task is to stabilise the increasingly difficult economic situation. To this end, it is necessary to ensure Ukrainian goods’ continued access to the Russian market, and to guarantee external financial support. The Ukrainian government is hoping that, in exchange for the postponement of its rapprochement with the EU, it will manage to come to an agreement with Russia on the issue of a stabilising loan and renegotiating the gas contract.

The crazy cat also blamed the IMF for the collapse of the deal with the EU — and certainly everyone knows that the economic hitmen at the IMF and their ilk only bring prosperity in their wake — per the NYT:

Prime Minister Mykola Azarov of Ukraine told enraged opposition lawmakers on Friday that his government’s decision to walk away from far-reaching political and trade agreements with the European Union was based on fiscal imperatives, and ultimately prompted by the International Monetary Fund’s overly harsh terms for an aid package.
…

Protests against the government’s decision were held in several Ukrainian cities, including Lviv, the largest city in western Ukraine and a hotbed of anti-Yanukovich sentiment, where more than 5,000 people joined a rally in the main square, led by Mayor Andriy Sadovy. Kiev, the capital, was pulsing with emotion that officials and commentators said they had not seen since the Orange Revolution of 2004.

On Friday evening, about 1,000 people protested in the rain in Independence Square, the revolution’s central gathering point, waving European Union flags and chanting, “Ukraine is Europe!” A bigger rally was set for Sunday. The jailed former prime minister, Yulia V. Tymoshenko, issued a statement urging people “to react to this as they would to a coup d’état” and take to the streets.

Note that it was western Ukraine that was the hotbed of protest. Good old Western Ukraine, home of legendary freedom-lovers.

Maidan Protests, Entirely Organic, Break Out

I’ll use the definitely not edited by the CIA Wikipedia entry on the Maidan Protests to tell the next part of the story:

The scope of the protests widened, with calls for the resignation of Yanukovych and the Azarov government.[90] Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption, abuse of power, human rights violations,[91] and the influence of oligarchs.[92] Transparency International named Yanukovych as the top example of corruption in the world.[93] The violent dispersal of protesters on 30 November caused further anger.[5] Euromaidan was the largest democratic mass movement in Europe since 1989[94] and led to the 2014 Revolution of Dignity.

During the uprising, Independence Square (Maidan) in Kyiv was a huge protest camp occupied by thousands of protesters and protected by makeshift barricades. It had kitchens, first aid posts and broadcasting facilities, as well as stages for speeches, lectures, debates and performances.[95][96] It was guarded by ‘Maidan Self-Defense’ units made up of volunteers in improvised uniform and helmets, carrying shields and armed with sticks, stones and petrol bombs. Protests were also held in many other parts of Ukraine. In Kyiv, there were clashes with police on 1 December; and police assaulted the camp on 11 December. Protests increased from mid-January, in response to the government introducing draconian anti-protest laws. There were deadly clashes on Hrushevsky Street on 19–22 January. Protesters then occupied government buildings in many regions of Ukraine. The uprising climaxed on 18–20 February, when fierce fighting in Kyiv between Maidan activists and police resulted in the deaths of almost 100 protesters and 13 police.[71]

And about those protests, much like the 2004 Orange Revolution, I’d love to see the US State Department’s books on how much of the $5 billion Obama (and Bush and Clinton and later Biden) State Department official Victoria Nuland bragged about investing in Ukraine between 1991 and 2013 went to that kind of crap. I think there are some words for when one country spends immense fortunes to cause civil unrest in other countries; oh yea, it’s called subversion. Unless the US is doing it, then it’s just spreading freedom and democracy to a grateful world.

Crazy that some Ukrainians still wanted to be neutral and do business with Russia, who offered $15 billion in cash and a massive reduction in what Ukraine paid for natural gas. Evil Rooskies. Always up to something sneaky like that.

America’s investments in peace and democracy were bearing their fruits in the Maidan Protests in Kyiv, but a bipartisan pair of peace-loving US Senators went to the Ukrainian capital to help those fruits ripen even faster.

John McCain (R-Hell) and Chris Murphy (D-CT) addressed a crowd estimated at ~200,000 people saying, “We are here to support your just cause… And the destiny you seek lies in Europe.”

McCain shared these noble sentiments while standing shoulder to shoulder with one of Western Ukraine’s most notorious freedom lovers:

Those Putin-puppets at FAIR were still bitching about it in 2018, when then-Washington Post columnist (and current never-Trump freedom lover and Substacker) Jennifer Rubin got to singing McCain’s praises for his sterling human rights record, under an unfortunately chosen photo:

The Washington Post (8/27/18) published an op-ed by conservative staff opinion columnist Jennifer Rubin praising the late Sen. John McCain for his supposed commitment to “human rights.”

Rubin waxed poetic on the ostensible “lost champion” of human rights, who “model[ed] for others the behavior of a free society.” She declared, quite paradoxically, “With the possible exception of the US military…no group was more indebted to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) than the human rights community.”

There was an, er, optical problem, however: For the header image on this column, the Washington Post used a photo of McCain speaking next to the notorious Ukrainian neo-Nazi leader Oleh Tyahnybok.

Tyahnybok, a longtime fascist, has called for a war on the so-called “Muscovite-Jewish mafia” (BBC, 12/26/12). The far-right leader has attacked the role of “Jews-Bolsheviks” in his country’s history, and claims that there is still today a cabal of “Jewish oligarchs who control Ukraine” (JTA, 3/25/09).

John McCain met with Tyahnybok and stood next to him as the senator gave a speech in Ukraine in late 2013, as Business Insider (12/16/13) reported at the time. The Washington Post indicated in the caption on its header image that McCain was “wav[ing] to protesters during a mass rally of the opposition in Kiev, Ukraine, on December 15, 2013.” But it failed to identify the man standing next to the Arizona senator—or his extremist politics, which are the antithesis of human rights.

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The Structural Incentives Of Western Capitalism Make Competing With China Impossible

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On September 15, 2026

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JoeQuant’s an ex NY finance guy who moved to Hong Kong. This tweet makes an important point:


He then goes on as follows:

One reason China is “winning” is that if you are a Western auto company, and you make extra money, you will put it into exec bonuses and shareholder buybacks. If you are a Chinese company, you realize that if you don’t put money back into the company, then the competition will eat you alive. At that point as a shareholder or exec you wonder how much is enough. What if I cut my salary to 2 million USD rather than 10 million USD and put the rest into R&D or worker salaries.

Yes.

The reason VW and other German firms made so much money in China for so long is that they had, brace for it, better cars. More technologically advanced. Better handling.

But, as Joe points out, they didn’t try and keep that lead. They let the Chinese beat them by refusing to properly re-invest their profits.

This is a constant problem in the West: our elites don’t want to compete on price. They don’t want to compete on quality. They want “moats” — they want monopoly profits just for existing.

The problem is that in most industries China doesn’t allow moats. It forces competition. It wants competitive markets. Chinese capitalism is actually what Americans think American capitalism is: red of tooth and claw. In America the Red Queen’s race is “make more money so you can buy more companies and make sure you can’t be bought”, in China it’s “keep ahead of real competition which is trying to have better quality cheaper products.”

I wrote a fairly long article on Germany’s tax and industrial policy earlier this year. The short of it is that they changed the incentives to make it easier for German firms to pay more divdends and do my buybacks, and so that investing outside the country made more sense than investing inside the country.

Then they got exactly what they deserved. Now, since they’re not competitive, they’re starting to switch their automotive industry over to military production.

And no, that won’t end well.

I continue to note that it appears that only communists and socialists seem to understand how to use markets to actually produce widespread prosperity. Capitalists should never be allowed to run markets, because capitalists always want to destroy the markets. The government must always view capitalists as greedy stupid children who must be supervised with heavy application of the rod, because the minute capitalists get rich, they want to end competitive markets. This is logical, in competitive markets no firm is ever secure, no fortune is ever impregnable.

Only oligarchy is safe for oligarchs. Unfortunately oligarchy destroys nations. Why is the US getting its ass kicked? Because it got rid of its industry. It’s that simple. It can’t even produce enough weapons any more, and essentially every industry in effectively an oligopoly–set up to raise prices faster than wages and entirely opposed to actual price and quality competition.

The CPC, not being capitalists, understand that capitalists are stupid, venal scum who must have fist of the state around their throat at all times.

The West used to understand that capitalists needed regulating, especially during the New Deal era. But they never truly understood that capitalists are like powerful nobles. If you don’t keep the boot on their neck, they will destroy you. And so they did and so they have, we’re just playing out the end results of oligarchs taking over the West: all the sound and fury and deaths are just part of an inevitable end-game. The actual damage was done in the 70s thru 90s (people can quibble about the dates) and the rest is just consequences.

If you want free markets, you need people who don’t trust capitalists in charge, and you need to be sure capitalists never capture the government. The second they do, your country is cooked. Depending on how prosperous it was before the oligarchs took over, it may take a few generations, but the end result is not in doubt.

 

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

Defending Most Infrastructure Is Now Impossible But No One’s Getting It

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On September 14, 2026

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After Ansar Allah grabbed a huge chunk of territory, including coast and islands which let it control the Red Sea, and after blowing up a pumping station and pipeline which will require weeks to repair, the Sauds are doubling down with airstrikes and missile attacks.

And I’m wondering what’s going thru their heads.

Because we’re in a period where, with a few exceptions, anything can be destroyed by missiles and drones if you’re within range. That especially mean port infrastructure, airports, refineries (which have also been hit) and, yes, pipelines.

Whatever one thinks of Ansar Allah, they have shown an ability to absorb massive amounts of damage, and frankly, they have almost nothing. If it comes to a tit-for-tat exchange, they can take the punishment, while Saudi Arabia has all sorts of vulnerable infrastructure.

It’ll take, supposedly, six weeks to repair the pipeline.

Then it can just be hit again, because there is no way to protect it.

This is the new calculus of missile power. It’s hard to defend against, and in the context of western interceptor stockpiles being almost depleted, it’s effectively impossible.

In Ukraine/Russia this favors Russia, because they can hit more. In Yemen/Saudi Arabia it favors Yemen because what they can hit matters much more.

As with the Iran war, the correct play here is peace. Yemen wants an end to the blockade. Give it to them.

Saudi Arabia’s army is an infamous joke. They’re flirting with the end of the House of Saud here, because if the money stops, then their population will become a serious threat. The military is weak to avoid a possible coup, but that means it can’t stop a major uprising or invasion. The secret police are scary, but they only work at stomping out small fires, they can’t stop anything major.

Everyone hates the Saudi Royals. I’ve never met anyone who dealt with them who didn’t despise them, even if they were being paid well by the Sauds, they hated them.

This is a new world. Saudi Arabia bet on America to protect them, and that worked for generations. But America can’t any more. The royal family needs to find a new way, and so far the Pakistan/Turkey alliance is a dud.

It’s not looking good for them, but the first thing they need to do if they want to survive is get real about their situation, and about how warfare has changed.

I rather hope they don’t.

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

Open Thread

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On September 12, 2026

18 Comments

Use to discuss topics not covered in recent posts.

Information Overlord: Houthis Roll, Hegseth Bumbles, AI Doomer Hype, Lots of Music Talk

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On September 11, 2026

26 Comments

Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

From me this week as Nat Wilson Turner

This week at Naked Capitalism I pulled a shift covering the Iran War and tried to connect the dots between Pete Hegseth’s Department of War and what’s going on with Meta and OpenAI.

I also continued my “Joe Biden’s Three Genocides in Four Years” series with the first installment of the Ukraine debacle.

More of what I wrote and recorded for The MMA Draw and The Let It Roll Podcast is at the bottom of this post but I wanted to feature the news links and think pieces.

What I’m Reading and Watching

The Iran War

  • The Iran War Has Just Had A Major Phase Change — Ian Welsh. On the interceptor math: the US runs out long before Iran does if Iran chooses to go all out, and hitting only three or four tankers a day was a choice rather than a ceiling.

“As I said day one of the war, the math is on Iran’s side: the US will run out of interceptors long before Iran if Iran chooses to go all out.”

Empire, and what it remembers

The AI trade

The AI Doomers really had their moment this week. I hope y’all know most of that crap is as overblown as the hype.

Money

What the heck is going on with the bond market, private equity, etc

 

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Ansar-Allah’s Blitz Likely To Reduce Saudi Oil Exports To Near Zero

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On September 11, 2026

13 Comments

The picture above is from an Ansar-Allah (Houthi) strike on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. That and the Red Sea are how they were getting around the Iranian blockade.

About the Red Sea:

Yemen appears to have captured four islands plus the West coast of Yemen, most of which they didn’t previously control. This is… remarkable… because they have no navy, no airforce and one of the islands had an air base.

Meanwhile, they completely routed Saudi mercenary forces, capturing vast amounts of land in thirty six hours:

Saudi (and a few UAE proxies) were routed. They basically fled on contact. This is what happens when merecenaries go up against real troops, and the US isn’t there to help. Saudi Arabia has a huge air force, but it appears to have done basically nothing. (It’s an open secret that the Saudi military is a complete joke.)

MBS begged Trump for help and got none:

Saudi Crown Prince MBS called US President Trump twice on thursday, urging the US to carry out strikes but Trump reportedly declined as there are currently no plans for direct intervention. (Axios)

The US is over-stretched, and not just low on interceptors on missiles, glide bombs and so on.

The war in Yemen was a big project for Obama, and it included a hell of a lot of US support. Even with all that support they were only able to contain Ansar-Allah, not defeat it. (It’s worth knowing that while most of Yemen is not under Ansar-Allah control even now, the areas they control have 80% of the population.)

This is what it looks like when an Empire is in fatal decline.

I consider this good news, overall, but it’s going to absolutely suck for almost everyone. I have warned before, I’m warning again: stock up on staple foods, fuels and so on. Ansar-Allah now has complete control of the Strait, plus that pipeline is down for a while, and they can take it out again, or hit more refineries. Combined with the Iranian blockade, hardly any Saudi oil will be getting out, nor will the precursors for fertilizers.

Much of what was holding the oil market down (other than massive manipulation and releases from the reserves) was China reducing its purchases for months, but they’ve started up again, so demand is actually increasing.

We’ll see if Saudi Arabia has more sense than America: the correct action is to make whatever concessions are necessary. The Sauds cannot protect their infrastructure, their army is garbage, their mercenaries won’t fight and Ansar Allah has them by the throat. If they insist on fighting on they risk losing everything, because without oil revenue, Saudi Arabia is not viable, right down to not having enough food.

Much like the Iranians, Yemen has escalation dominance and is more willing and able to take pain (they lost millions to the last war) than the corrupt and effete Saudis. The Sauds have LOST and if they refuse to admit that, the House of Saud itself may fall. (No one will miss it, except people like Kushner, whom it has bribed.)

I consider yesterday one of the best days, geopolitically, of my life. The American Raj is taking body blow after body blow and is fatally overstretched. But it is going to SUCK for most of us, as prices rise and there are shortages, unless Trump has surgery to correct his chronic case of head in ass and agrees to Iran’s terms, while the Sauds do the same with Yemen.

It’s hard to predict Trump, but my guess is his Israeli masters won’t let him make peace, so get ready: the next year is going to be awful in much of the world.

 

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