Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 21, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 21, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

War

US Finally Capitulates with ‘Memorandum’ of Surrender

Simplicius [via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2026]

 

Iran Enlisted “Senior Psychologists” to Help Craft Messages to Trump Ahead of Agreement

[Jeremy Scahill, June 15, 2026 [DropSite]

… “We added two senior psychologists to the negotiations’ advisory circle so that we can shape messages intended for President Trump from the perspective of managing what we regard as psychopathic behavior pattern,” an Iranian official told Drop Site. He said the psychologists began assisting Iranian negotiators following the initial round of bilateral talks in Islamabad in April as the two sides began exchanging proposed terms for a potential Memorandum of Understanding.

“[Trump’s] reactions have improved noticeably since we began incorporating the recommendations of these advisers into our messages and written communications,” said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly.

“Because the exchanged texts will ultimately become part of the historical record, we conduct our negotiations in a manner that ensures the relative weight and sophistication of each party’s negotiating techniques will be evident should these communications be made public in the years ahead,” the official added….

 

The Race for Hypersonic Missiles

[Wall Street Journal, via Naked Capitalism 06-16-2026]

 

The Future of Warfare is Coming Faster Than Most Think

Karl Sanchez [via Naked Capitalism 06-15-2026]

 

Ukraine’s Naval Drone Program: Origins, Development, and the Organizations Behind It 

[Black Mountain Analysis, via Naked Capitalism 06-15-2026]

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025

 

Trump says there are ‘no limits’ to his power 

[The Hill, via Naked Capitalism 06-20-2026]

 

Frustrated by Courts, Trump Weighed Suspending a Constitutional Right 

Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan [The New York Times, via scotusblog.com, June 16, 2026]

Citing “a secret memo” written by the White House staff secretary, The New York Times reported on Monday that the Trump administration last year seriously considered suspending habeas rights for unauthorized immigrants as part of a broader deportation push. “The suspension of habeas corpus has occurred just a handful of times in U.S. history, and always under the most dire circumstances of war or invasion. Yet to a greater degree than previously known, administration officials, encouraged by Mr. Trump, actively weighed taking that step in the early months of his second term.” In his memo to the White House chief of staff, Will Scharf counseled against that move, noting that it would “likely precipitate hazardous legal and constitutional battles.” “Even where Congress has explicitly suspended habeas corpus rights, the Supreme Court has held that some alternative process must be provided to defendants, with procedural safeguards akin to a habeas corpus action,” Scharf wrote.

 

The Question Inside Trump’s White House Wasn’t Whether They Could Suspend Rights—It Was Whether They Could Get Away With It

Joyce Vance, June 15, 2026 [Civil Discourse]

…The reporting clarifies that Miller’s role extended to advocating for the suspension of basic rights, and that he was narrowly run off. The same appears to be true for the Vice President. The risk is not over. It is a warning for what could be coming, one that cannot be ignored….

 

Why Does Trump Want the Save America Act? The Answer Should Worry Us.

[Balkinization, via Naked Capitalism 06-18-2026]

… That leaves a fifth reading, and it is the most disquieting one.  The Act has virtually no prospect of passing the Senate in its current form.  If the President convinces the public that the Act is necessary, and Congress refuses to enact it, he can claim that the integrity of the next election is in doubt and that an executive remedy is justified.

By this interpretation, the President’s campaign for the Act builds the predicate for unilateral action: the suspension or federally supervised disruption of the midterm elections, sufficient to secure continued Republican control of the House.  This is not as speculative as we would hope.  Federal troops and law enforcement agents have been deployed to Los Angeles, Washington, Portland, and Chicago under contested theories of executive authority.  A draft executive order circulated among Trump allies would declare a national emergency to ban mail-in ballots and voting machines.  And recently, the President issued a different executive order attempting to grant his Postal Service unprecedented federal control over who is eligible to vote by mail….

 

Trump Is Threatening To ‘Take Back’ DC Based On Who Wins Mayoral Primary

[Huffington Post]

…Janeese Lewis George, a city council member who has led in the polls, is a democratic socialist who’s campaigned on delivering universal childcare and ceasing the D.C. police department’s cooperation with federal immigration authorities. Trump said last week he “wouldn’t like it” if she won.

“Maybe we’d take back Washington, run it on the federal basis,” Trump said in response to a reporter’s question at the White House. “We won’t put up with it. We’re not going to lose our businesses.” ….

There’s no question he can meddle in the city’s affairs. Trump has direct control over D.C.’s National Guard, and the Home Rule Act gives him the power to use the D.C. police force for federal purposes if he decides there are “special conditions of an emergency nature.” He took advantage of those authorities last year, when he briefly took over the police department and deployed the National Guard in response to a supposed crime crisis. Groups of guardsmen, mostly from GOP-controlled states, still roam the city’s streets….

 

Why Aren’t There More Whistleblowers Against Trump?

Christopher Armitage, June 20, 2026 [The Existentialist Republic]

What you’re about to read covers why so few people have blown the whistle on this administration, what happened to the insiders who did, and how the people who lied to protect those in power came out ahead instead. It then turns to the fix: this country has protected whistleblowers before, the programs that protect them still work, and states can build them now. It ends with the specific law worth asking your state to pass and the offices to call….

So now that we have outlined the problem and it’s source, we can look for an example of a successful whistleblower program. In the middle of the American Revolution, ten sailors aboard the USS Warren reported that the most powerful officer in the Continental Navy, Commodore Esek Hopkins, had tortured British prisoners. Hopkins dragged two of them into court. The Continental Congress addressed the misconduct, they knew this wasn’t the sort of activity they wanted their nation to engage in. On July 30, 1778, Congress declared that every American had a duty to report misconduct by people in power, and it voted to cover the sailors’ legal defense. The first thing this country ever did about whistleblowers was protect them and pay their legal bills.

And when this country has wanted information badly enough, it has paid cash for it. Lincoln signed the False Claims Act in 1863 to catch war profiteers, and the law still lets an ordinary person sue on the government’s behalf and keep a cut of what comes back. Since Congress put real teeth in it in 1986, whistleblowers have helped recover more than $85 billion, and the people who came forward keep 15 to 30 percent of it….

A state can give a person who exposes wrongdoing in the federal government two things: protection and a reward. The protection does not require the state to recover any money, and it applies no matter what the person exposed. Keep their name secret: let them report through a lawyer to the governor and state attorney general rather than to the official they are reporting on. Punish retaliation: give a state, local, or private worker in the state the right to sue, legal representation to fight for the return of their job, recover double their lost wages, and make the employer pay their attorney fees. Fund their defense: pay the legal costs of a whistleblower who faces a lawsuit or a prosecution, so those costs do not bankrupt them….

 

‘Just Do It Anyway’: Inside Trump’s Plans to Pay His Allies, Slush Fund or Not

Asawin Suebsaeng and Andrew Perez, June 18, 2026 [Zeteo]

Shortly after Donald Trump’s $1.776 billion slush fund of taxpayer money was announced by the Justice Department last month, it triggered such furious backlash that the administration was forced to at least pretend it was pausing the project, with acting Attorney General Todd Blanche claiming that his department was “not moving forward with the fund, period.”

Right around that time, three sources familiar with the situation tell Zeteo, senior Trump officials immediately got to work on alternate plans for delivering public funds to the president’s allies – even if the new “fund” didn’t technically exist on paper.

According to two of the sources, Trump himself had a succinct reply, when the topic of political or legal roadblocks to his slush fund came up in recent conversations with close advisers: “Just do it anyway.” ….

 

Letters from an American, June 20, 2026

Heather Cox Richardson, June 21, 2026

[Begins with a useful summary of the corruption and incompetence of Trump filling the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool with green slime.]

Friday night, Trump blamed “Radical Left Lunatics, most likely Dumocats [sic], who have spent their lives trying to ruin our Country,” for “some real problems with Vandalism at the beautiful Reflecting Pool.” By this evening, he was blaming “multiple individuals for vandalizing our Nations magnificent Reflecting Poll [sic]. Who would do such a thing? These are very serious crimes having to do with the destruction of National Monuments. Years in jail! Work will begin immediately on its repair.”

[TW: Make Algae Great Again.]

 

How the Trump Administration Pushed Judges to Deport Children – The D.O.J. has fast-tracked immigration cases for unaccompanied minors and fired judges who appear not to comply.

E. Tammy Kim, June 20, 2026 [The New Yorker]

 

Inside the Ludicrous, Deadly Serious Plan to Take Over Greenland

Ben Taub, June 15, 2026 [The New Yorker]

 

Trump Goes Postal – The latest scheme to use the Postal Service to block mail ballots and take over elections

Robert Kuttner, June 17, 2026 [The American Prospect]

 

Strategic Political Economy

The (real) dead economy theory: Vibes and memestocks, all the way down.

Cory Doctorow, June 17, 2026 [Pluralistic]

Here’s a fun fact about Elon Musk: in 2020, his (nominal) net worth was $20b, and today it’s $1t (nominally). But that’s not the fun fact; this is: everything he’s done since 2020 was a flop.

As John Quiggin writes, the pre-2020 Musk was the Musk of Tesla, batteries and Starlink. The post-2020 Musk is the Musk of Starship, robotaxis, Cybertrucks and Twitter – a string of commercial flops and assets that literally exploded. I would add that post-2020 Musk created the world’s hungriest money-furnace, an automated child-porn production tool called “XAI”:

https://crookedtimber.org/2026/06/15/one-big-grift/

Quiggin declares that this is the era in which “financial markets fail in the task of valuing assets accurately,” and “the institutional structures that are supposed to make them work have given up trying.” Nor did this start with the Spacex IPO. As Quiggin writes, Bitcoin and other cryptos were once shunned by nominally sober financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, but today, not only do all the big banks offer crypto services, people have largely stopped calling it cryptocurrency because no one is even pretending that it’s a form of money….

Spacex is just a continuation of the logic of crypto, in which something is valuable because some people think other people will pay more for it in the future, and not because it does useful things:

https://johnquiggin.com/2018/02/09/bitcoin-kills-the-efficient-market-hypothesis/

That’s the logic of the whole market today. AI – the world’s money-losingest technology – attracts investment at the expense of everything else. When horrified NIH lifers begged the DOGE boys not to shut down long-running medical research projects, Musk’s broccoli-haired brownshirts laughed in their faces, saying we don’t need cancer research because “GAI” is almost here and it will cure cancer. You could hardly ask for a better example of investing in vibes over value than shutting down real cancer research to free up money for teaching more words to the word-guessing machine because it’s about to become God and cure cancer.

Today, Goldman Sachs isn’t merely all-in on crypto – it’s all-in on the Spacex IPO. As Quiggin writes, the bank has signed off on Musk’s claim that “Musk’s ragbag of assets” will grow one hundredfold in the next 40 months….

The actual dead economy risk is that our institutions and markets will continue to move capital from productive activity into memestocks, vibes, and bubbles.

We could do “AI cancer research” by producing tools that automate gnarly multivariant analysis problems for cancer researchers. But what we’re actually doing is defunding cancer research (especially any research into “systemic” cancer because studying systemic things is “woke”) to free up fiscal space so we can build data-centers and make Musk into a trillionaire.

That’s not just a dead economy – it’s one that’ll kill everyone you love and everything that matters.

 

Global power shift

China has a powerful new oil price weapon

[Bloomberg, via Naked Capitalism 06-18-2026]

 

Oligarchy

Leak Exposes Members of Peter Thiel’s Secretive ‘Dialog’ Society

Dell Cameron, Yulia Almazova, June 16, 2026 [Wired]

 

Peter Thiel’s Secret Doctrine

Matthew Ehret, June 18, 2026

Palantir was not born in a garage. Like Space X, Paypal, Facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon, it was commissioned by military intelligence agencies seeking to create a civilian branding for an insidious Orwellian control grid. In Palantir’s case, you will discover how Thiel and his Stanford school chum Alex Karp were introduced to CIA director George Tenet, and Total Information Awareness architect John Poindexter by neocon grand strategist Richard Perle.

In this episode, you will discover what Palantir actually is, who built it, who it serves, and why a company that named itself after the all-seeing eye of Sauron now manages the intelligence, policing, banking, and military systems of most of the Western world. Palantir’s ambition to generate “predictive crime” is also an open goal of this burgeoning new hand of a Minority Report dystopia.

By the end of the show, I examine Thiel’s Straussian gnostic teaching and ‘secret doctrine’, Thiel’s belief that freedom and democracy are incompatible, his obsession with the same antichrist which he claims to fear but appears to be building, and the influence of Rene Girard’s sick ideas of human nature on the young Transhumanist.

 

From Bilderberg to Dialog: How Peter Thiel’s ‘Secret Society’ Signals a New Elite

Curro Jimenez, June 18, 2026 [Naked Capitalism]

Nothing seems to entice those in positions of power as much as secret societies. Nothing seems to reek of corruption more than secret societies. And nothing seems to capture public attention like secret societies. That is why Peter Thiel’s “secret society” leak is a confirmation that there’s a new class in the upper echelons of the system. Not because the “secret society” exists, but because it has been “leaked” that it does….

And that is the telling sign. I have argued that many of the events that we are seeing happen, from geopolitical moves to financial decisions, are being directed to protect and promote the interests of a new class that has arrived at the upper echelons of systemic power. They are reshaping finance, war, surveillance, industry, entertainment, academia, and the State. The combined valuation of the US stock market sits at between 75 and 80 trillion dollars. The ten largest US companies are all tech companies and represent around a third of the total US market valuation, or 28 trillion dollars. For reference, that is more than the GDP of China, EU or Russia.

And I have argued that this tightly-knit oligarchy knows each other, talks to each other, and fights or helps each other. The fact that Dialog has been made public is an indication that they are already comfortably occupying their seats and that, far from fearing public scrutiny, they crave it.

 

The Pope and a Silicon Valley Trillionaire Fight Over God 

Matt Stoller, June 14, 2026 [BIG]

Elon Musk is a trans-humanist, the ultimate expression of the Chicago School philosophy. The Pope offers a different vision about how limits make us human.

 

Man who hates paying taxes loves government handouts

[Boing Boing, via Naked Capitalism 06-16-2026]

 

The Oligarch-on-Oligarch Fight That Defines Politics in 2026

David Dayen, June 18, 2026 [The American Prospect]

[media lawyer McClain Delaney vs. Total Wine boss Rep. David Trone, in Maryland US Senate race]

 

Felonomics

‘Elon Musk Should Have to Pay For This’: Trump Admin Says It Needs $1 Billion to Combat Screwworm

[Common Dreams]

 

More Than 770,000 Children Are No Longer Receiving SNAP Benefits After Trump Changes Federal Food Program

Nicole Santa Cruz, , June 17, 2026 [ProPublica]

 

Trumpian State Capitalism 

[Phenomenal World, via Naked Capitalism 06-15-2026]

 

How an Addictive Gas Station Drug Found Allies in Trump’s Cabinet 

[New York Times, via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2026]

 

The OMB and the Politicization of Science

[New England Journal of Medicine, via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2026]

… For decades, the Soviet Union promoted the unorthodox views of Trofim Lysenko, an agronomist who used his close ties to the political leadership to spread misinformation denying Mendelian genetics. What followed was a disaster: many years of poor harvests based on unsupported science and suppression of the teaching and practice of modern genetics throughout the Soviet bloc. A similar threat now hangs over U.S. science.

First, a review of where we are now. Proposals for scientific research are submitted to various federal agencies (we will use the National Institutes of Health [NIH] as an example), where they undergo an initial administrative review (to ensure adherence to all the rules) followed by peer review by a panel of experts in the field. These experts assess the proposal and assign it a priority score. Priority scores are based on the value of the science and are determined by peer reviewers who are shielded from politics. The appropriate NIH institute determines how many grants can be funded, depending on its budget, and then — with rare exceptions — funds strictly by priority score. The NIH leadership and Congress can influence funding by, for example, changing broad budgets or issuing “requests for applications.” However, the decisions are almost entirely driven by science. Once funded, the proposed work proceeds, unless the grantee fails to perform it, for the period designated at the time of the funding decision.
The rule changes that the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) recently proposed to the Health and Human Services (HHS) grant process would drastically change this process. There are too many objectionable aspects of these proposals to discuss here. But three are particularly striking….

The carnage of mainstream neoliberal economics

Nearly 1 in 4 US tenants fell behind on rent in 2025

Stephen Semler [via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2026]

There are 46 million renter households in the US. The share behind on rent has more than doubled since 2019…. Nearly one in four tenants fell behind on rent in 2025, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest report on household economic well-being. At 23%, the share who fell behind on rent last year was two percentage points higher than in 2024, six points above 2022, and 13 points above 2019.1 That’s as far back as the Fed’s survey data goes….

 

Real Estate Merger Poised to Create Several Local Apartment Monopolies

Rebecca Burns, June 17, 2026 [The American Prospect]

A combination between AvalonBay and Equity Residential would put close to 200,000 apartments in the hands of one company.

 

 

Health care crisis

Ebola: Largest ever outbreak of rare strain ‘likely even greater’ – and the ‘first line of defence’ has collapsed

[Sky, via Naked Capitalism 06-16-2026]

Congo reports large daily jump in Ebola cases a month after outbreak was declared

[Associated Press, via Naked Capitalism 06-16-2026]

 

They’re not capitalists — they’re predatory criminals

Private equity dismantled West Suburban Medical Center and other area hospitals 

[Chicago Sun-Times, via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2026]

[TW: Private equity should be treated as a conspiracy to commit murder. But here’s a symptom of our current problem: the next article does not even mention to role of private equity.]

Illinois hospital fully closes after last elevator fails 

[Becker’s Hospital Review, via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2026]

 

Restoring balance to the economy

Can We Automate the Safety Net?

[Can We Still Govern?, via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2026]

…Psychologists and behavioral economists have long observed that default rules—rules that determine how a person is treated if they don’t make an active choice—tend to have major effects on program enrollment. One recent study found that suspending health insurance auto-enrollment in Massachusetts caused new enrollments to decline by 33 percent, an effect that is an order of magnitude greater than the effects of softer “nudges” such as providing information and assistance and up to twice as large as the impact of Massachusetts’ mandate penalty.

Programs like Medicare Part B and Social Security, which come close to automatically enrolling everyone who is eligible, unsurprisingly boast take-up rates of nearly 100 percent….

 

How to Contain the Oligarchs

David Lingelbach and Valentina Rodríguez Guerra, June 18, 2026 [Washington Monthly]

Rule by the rich may look inevitable, but history shows it’s not. From ancient Greece to New Deal America to today’s Hungary, democracies have found ways to separate private fortunes from public power.

 

Break up Big Meat 

Art Cullen [via Naked Capitalism 06-16-2026]

 

The Most Powerful Political Office You’ve Never Heard Of

David Sirota, Natalie Bettendorf, June 19, 2026 [the Lever]

One elected official quietly controls a $300 billion fund and holds the power to move financial markets. Why is no one watching?

Today, we’re sharing David Sirota’s exclusive interview with Goyle, a progressive running for New York State comptroller, a job that single-handedly controls nearly $300 billion and has the power to sway financial markets in ways that can take on President Donald Trump and corporate interests.

“This is a job that has more singular power than a U.S. senator… all of Wall Street is watching what happens in a job like this,” Sirota said.

You’ll hear Goyle explain why he’s challenging the longtime incumbent, promising to leverage the office’s enormous power …. And why Democrats around the country in these financial officer roles should join forces….

 

Disrupting mainstream economics

Economic Calculation Problem….. Debunked

[historic.ly, 19 Jun 2026]

According to libertarians, the Economic Calculation Problem is the ultimate kryptonite against socialism — a decisive argument that no one has ever refuted. Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises presented it as a logical proof that socialism is inherently irrational….

Mises maintained that the information necessary for economic calculation cannot be directly derived from physical quantities alone. Steel, labor, coal, machinery, and land are qualitatively different inputs that cannot be compared through simple measurement. Market exchange generates prices that reduce these heterogeneous goods to a common monetary denominator, allowing alternative production plans to be compared. Millions of exchanges produce prices that summarize dispersed information about relative scarcity and demand. In his view, the market functions as a mechanism for coordinating information that no individual planner could assemble independently.(Mises 1949, 92–97; 1920; 1922).

Without price-based calculation, Mises concluded, socialist planning must be arbitrary, leading to waste, inefficiency, and eventual collapse….

A central assumption in Mises’s argument is that profitability indicates that resources are being used more effectively. If a producer cannot compete profitably, Mises argues that others have found a better use for the resources involved (Mises 1949, pp. 300–302, 334–336; see also 1920)

Yet profitability in this system often comes not from genuine improvements or feeding more people, but from engineered scarcity and the quiet destruction of life….

Prices embed existing inequalities and power relations rather than revealing objective scarcity or true societal value.For example, in order to mine cobalt (a critical input for electric vehicle batteries and other high-tech goods), children between the ages of 3–17 in the mining communities of the copper-cobalt belt in the Democratic Republic of Congo are heavily involved in the labor. According to a 2017 UC Berkeley CEGA white paper, 11% of children aged 3–17 work outside the household in these artisanal mining areas, while an additional 57% perform domestic household tasks that support the mining economy.Even when prices exist, they reflect the current structure of power and property relations, not moral value or labor input….

 

Information age dystopia / surveillance state

AI digital sovereignty risk doesn’t exist

Cory Doctorow, June 18, 2026 [Pluralistic]

You see, blockchain weirdos kept insisting that they could solve problems related to trust and institutional design with “smart contracts.” Rather than having to trust a board of directors to steer an organization, you could just have a self-executing institution, the “distributed autonomous organization” or DAO.

So for example, if you want to buy a copy of the US Constitution at a Sotheby’s auction, you could set up a DAO to raise and pool the funds, eliminating the need to find trustworthy people to receive, hold and deploy these funds:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ConstitutionDAO

However – and here’s where the palmed card comes in – the DAO can’t go to Sotheby’s and place a bid on the Constitution. Instead, the members of the DAO have to elect a guy to receive all that cash, walk into Sotheby’s, get one of those little ping-pong paddles last seen at the State of the Union in Chuck Schumer’s withered claw (emblazoned with the brave slogan “You’re hurting my fee-fees”) and raise the paddle during the bidding.

That guy doesn’t have to go to Sotheby’s. That guy can simply walk away with all the money. Members of the DAO are trusting this guy with their entire collective treasury. Indeed, since the DAO has no corresponding legal entity, it might even be that members of the DAO can’t sue this guy if he steals all their money – and even worse, without a limited liability structure, it might mean that everyone in the DAO can be sued for anything bad this guy does with the money.

Which raises the question: what’s the point of building this insanely complex hairball of blockchain-based smart contracts to raise and hold the money if you’re just going to hand it to this guy and trust him without limit? ….

 

Removing AI From Your Google Account = The AI intrusion seems to be everywhere. Take steps where you can.

Thomas Neuburger, June 16, 2026 [God’s Spies]

 

The US Government Is Letting a Key Data Center Regulation Expire 

[Wired, via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2026]

 

Climate and environmental crises

The Merchants of Doubt are coming for Extreme Event Attribution science

[The Climate Brink, via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2026]

… For those unfamiliar with it, extreme event attribution attempts to quantify the contribution of climate change to an extreme event. For example, several groups analyzed the impact of climate change on Hurricane Harvey’s enormous rainfall totals over Houston, Texas and they found that climate change increased rainfall by 15 to 38%.

One thing that came up again and again was how terrified fossil-fuel interests are of extreme event attribution science. They are acutely aware that this research could land them in court. And losing those cases would leave them legally liable for billions of dollars in climate damages.

Because the legal stakes are so high, the blowback has turned ugly. I spoke with several scientists at the meeting who are facing ongoing harassment over their work.

This blowback is a coordinated campaign to make the entire field look suspect. The goal is to create the impression that attribution science is too uncertain, too political, or too conflicted to be useful in court or in public policy. The strategy is not based on actual science or evidence of misconduct, but on the generation of doubt….

[TW: One of the few hopes I have is that as a new generation of legal officials and prosecutors rise to positions of power, the idea that climate deniers are engaged in a conspiracy to murder and even commit genocide, will become more and more acceptable – and actionable.]

 

Democrats’ political malpractice

Why Cities Go Socialist – Here comes a generation of DSA big-city mayors.

Harold Meyerson, June 19, 2026 [The American Prospect]

… Which is why the future of most American big cities—most certainly, those that attract younger residents—is likely to be social democratic and often run by avowed socialists. The Bernies, Mamdanis, and AOCs won’t be the Democratic Party’s lonesome ends; they’ll be the party’s urban wing. The sooner the Democrats understand that—and the sooner they embrace many of that wing’s policies, however they choose to label them (and themselves)—the better.

 

Why Is Newsom Fighting California’s Billionaire Tax?

David Sirota, Natalie Bettendorf, June 18, 2026 [The Lever]

California voters are poised to vote on a one-time billionaire tax that would fund schools, food assistance, and Medicaid. Silicon Valley is spending big to keep the precedent-setting initiative off the November ballot, but the campaign’s most powerful opponent isn’t a tech oligarch — it’s California Gov. Gavin Newsom, the Democratic power broker and potential presidential candidate.

Today on Lever Time, David Sirota sits down with Dave Regan, the union leader who engineered the billionaire tax, to find out why Newsom and his allies are racing to kill the measure — and what this fight reveals about oligarchs’ control of the Democratic Party.

 

The Obama Center is a Monument to the More Effective Evil

[Black Agenda Report, via Naked Capitalism 06-15-2026]

 

Obama library dedication turns presidency of war, Wall Street bailouts into Democratic Camelot 

[WSWS, via Naked Capitalism 06-19-2026]

 

The Democrats’ 2024 “Autopsy” and the Party’s Refusal to Halt Weapons to Israel

[Scheerpost, via Naked Capitalism 06-14-2026]

 

Resistance

Which Crimes Could Trump and His Allies *Actually* Be Prosecuted For? Legal Expert Explains

John Harwood, Joyce Vance, and Team Zeteo, June 17, 2026 [Zeteo]

Is Trump immune from the law? And after he’s gone, will his enablers face the consequences? Ex-federal prosecutor Joyce Vance weighs in with Zeteo’s John Harwood.

 

We Can Start Deterring Election Lies Right Now

Brian Beutler and Andrew Weissmann, June 18, 2026

I had the opportunity on Wednesday to chat live with Andrew Weissmann, the former federal prosecutor and legal-affairs commentator, whose new book Liar’s Kingdom proposes ideas, inspired by foreign democracies, for amending our own laws to impose civil or criminal consequences on political candidates who tell Trump-like lies about elections.

Andrew crafted his proposals carefully to pass muster under our Constitution. They are thus meant to serve both as actionable responses to Donald Trump’s ongoing campaign of post-2020 lies, and as realistic prescriptions for discouraging copycats in the future. But the book hit the shelves just a couple weeks before Republicans in California and across the country asserted new false claims of fraud, in the vain hope of overturning the results of the Los Angeles mayoral primary, and installing a defeated GOP candidate on the general election ballot.

I was reading Liar’s Kingdom as that happened, and borrowed from it heavily in writing this piece, which argues California Democrats should pass a law that would effectively disqualify these election liars from seeking office in the state on future ballots….

 

The Joke is on Us – The retreat into satirical attacks on Trump and his supporters fuels the solidification of fascism.

Chris Hedges, June 19, 2026

There are two forms of satire. That of the educated elites, which dominates the commercial media, ridicules the foibles and pretensions of Trump and his hapless followers. This satire does not attack corporations or the war industry. It ignores the decay and rot within our political institutions, including the Democratic Party, which created Trump. It pretends we live in a democracy. It breeds cynicism, not resistance. It is characterized by a repugnant moral and intellectual superiority and heartless demeaning of the underclass. It fosters the social divisions and alienation that feeds fascism.

 

How to FOIA ICE 

[Project Salt Box, via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2026]

 

What Spies, Saboteurs, and Abolitionists Can Teach Us About Effectively Influencing Politics

Christopher Armitage, June 17, 2026 [The Existentialist Republic]

 

Minneapolis Is The Way – Why fascists hate the labor movement.

Hamilton Nolan, June 17, 2026 [How Things Work]

… There are hundreds of panel discussions and workshops at Labor Notes, and no one can go to more than a small fraction of them. But I want to discuss one of them, which focused on what is, to my mind, the most important union action of the past year: the long and ultimately successful struggle by the people of Minneapolis and St. Paul against ICE’s militaristic occupation of their cities.

I got to moderate a panel that included both elected union leaders and rank and file members from the Twin Cities, who talked about the nuts and bolts experience of the ICE surge, the rapid resistance to it, the enormous citywide march against ICE on January 23, and the aftermath. It was fascinating and inspiring and it helped to show us all not just what unions are, but what they can be.

These were unions representing teachers and hotel workers, service workers and janitors and telecom technicians. Regular working people. They spoke about the brutality of ICE’s operations, and how they sprung into action. The teachers made plans to protect their students and schools. The unions all plunged themselves into mutual aid and protection for their immigrant members. And, after an initial phase of figuring out how to safeguard their own people, they threw themselves into a staggering citywide effort to resist ICE in every way possible.

The Minneapolis area has one of the most impressive citywide labor movements in America. It has a rich history of strikes. The leaders of the city’s unions today have had the benefit of going through both the George Floyd protests of 2020, and of planning and executing a multi-union, multi-industry coordinated citywide contract fight in 2024. They have practice working together—like a real movement, rather than an atomized collection of interest groups. When ICE came to town, they were able to exercise those muscles immediately. When they decided, with only a couple of weeks’ notice, to have a huge march and shut down the city on January 23, they were able to pull it off….

 

Elon Musk keeps refusing to pay his bills. In California, that is felony theft by false pretenses.

Christopher Armitage, June 14, 2026 [The Existentialist Republic]

 

Conservative / Libertarian / (anti)Republican Drive to Civil War

OMB FISCAL YEAR 2025 MEMOS PART 1: THE FIRST TEN MEMOS 

Joshua Lawrenc, Juan Hanes [Notes on the Crises]

… It is no coincidence that the man who headed up “Project 2025”, Russell Vought, actively sought the head OMB position in order to implement his radical agenda. To understand why the leader of project 2025 would choose this perch over all others, we have to understand what exactly the OMB does….

 

“I would gladly give up my right to vote to have a more conservative country.”

Joyce Vance, June 16, 2026 [Civil Discourse]

If you haven’t actually listened to these women express their views, this five-minute clip compiled by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation is worth your time.

 

The (anti)Federalist Society assault on the Constitution

Corporate America’s Secret Courts Are Stealing Your Rights 

[Economic Liberties, June 17, 2026 The Economic Populist]

If you’ve ever signed up for a credit card, clicked “accept” on a website’s terms and conditions, or started a new job, you’ve almost certainly agreed to forced arbitration, a private system for resolving disputes that keeps companies out of public courts, away from class actions, and largely beyond the reach of the law. In When Companies Run the Courts: How Forced Arbitration Became America’s Secret Justice System, Brendan Ballou traces how this hidden architecture came to be, why it has quietly gutted whole areas of consumer and employment law, and what regular people might do to claw some power back.

 

Justice Scalia’s Jiggery-Pokery in Federal Arbitration Law

David S. Schwartz [Minnesota Law Review Headnotes, 2016]

 

Justice Scalia’s Hat Trick and the Supreme Court’s Flawed Understanding of Twenty-First Century Arbitration

Jill I. Gross [Brooklyn Law Review, Vol. 81, Iss. 1 (2015)]

 

Nine days in June

Erwin Chemerinsky [via scotusblog.com, June 17, 2026]

In his Courtly Observations column, Erwin Chemerinsky revisited what he believes to be “the most extraordinary June in the modern Supreme Court,” examining a nine-day period in June 2022 during which “the court overruled Roe v. Wade, greatly expanded the scope of gun rights, dramatically weakened the wall separating church and state, and imposed a significant new limit on the power of federal administrative agencies.”

 

Civic republicanism

Letters from an American, June 16, 2026

Heather Cox Richardson, June 17, 2026

In Chicago, a case against six protesters for interfering with a federal agent and conspiring to interfere with a federal agent at a detention facility protest fell apart in May when the judge discovered that prosecutors had talked to individual grand jurors outside the courtroom and removed those jurors who refused to indict, as well as apparently overstating the strength of the evidence against the defendants. Then the prosecutors tried to hide evidence of their misconduct by redacting the transcripts from the grand jury.

As Julie Bosman of the New York Times reported, U.S. District Judge April Perry dismissed the case against the “Broadview Six,” saying: “I have read hundreds—if not thousands—of grand jury transcripts involving prosecutors who are the most junior of prosecutors to several U.S. attorneys who appeared before the grand jury. I have never seen the types of prosecutorial behavior before a grand jury that I saw in those transcripts.”

[TW: The Trump regime’s disdain for following legal norms, precedents, and procedures is a direct manifestation of the conservative mindset. Recall this harks back to Nixon and Reagan. It is why conservatives so easily support authoritarianism: the leaders are the fount of authority, not the government. “If the president does it, that means it’s legal.”]

And Trump’s renovation of the Reflecting Pool by the Lincoln Memorial is having the effect experts warned of. Because of the dark paint on the floor of the pool, the sun heats the water up even faster than it did before, and the resulting algae bloom has turned the pool bright green. Today, workers poured hydrogen peroxide into the pool to try to kill the algae.

[TW: The absurdity of the conservative mind is captured by the fable of an authoritarian king attempting to command the ocean tides. Here is Trump attempting to command the appearance of a basin of water.]

 

Is healthcare a human right?

Alex Krainer, June 19, 2026

[TW: I peg Krainer as a libertarian attracted to conspiracy theories, but he often has good information. And arguments, as in this post.]

… Reframing the debate might start with the idea that healthcare ought to be a social obligation. This would be more consistent with human nature, because this is how we naturally approach illness and care for the ill. If someone in the family or in our community is unwell, we feel obligated to help. It’s a hardwired impulse, it does not require an accounting ledger, an economic theory, or a University medical ethics department.

People naturally go quite out of their way to help those in need. I believe we’ve all seen countless videos online where ordinary individuals risk their lives and wellbeing to rescue a child fallen down a well, a dog that fell through the ice in a river, or an elephant stuck in the mud. Nobody stops to ask how much that costs, whether the rescuee has the money or insurance to compensate us, or whether they have the human (or elephant) right to deserve our effort in helping them.

If this is the way people relate to one another in families and in communities, why shouldn’t this be the case at the national level? Why shouldn’t every nation treat healthcare as a social obligation? ….

 

 

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. (No Iran.)

Israel’s Support Is Eroding In the US

A friend pointed out to me that Israel’s support is eroding hard. The elite consensus is shifting. Point in case:

The hard core Zionists will keep opposing this deal, of course, but there are two groups that are shiftable. The first is the one that Tapper belongs to: he’s an authority follower. He’s been hardcore pro-Israel and loathes Muslims, but his first instinct is to follow the leader. Trump’s made a clear turn, and Jake is following.

The second group are those who need administrative favor. Their livelihood or plans depend on the levers the President controls favoring them. They were for Iraq, for Ukraine, etc… but they have no strong ideological commitment, only self-interest.

Trump made a mistake letting hard core Zionists roll up media and social media, but there’s still enough run by self-interested or follow the leader types that if Trump stays solid, the American elite zeitgeist will shift towards his stance. Israel is an ideological commitment, it’s not, for most elites and courtiers, all that involved with making lots of money or being part of the in-group. If the window shifts, they’ll shift with it.

At a fundamental level what happened is that America got itself involved in a war which it couldn’t just walk away from. Losing in Vietnam was embarrassing but really, who cares? Just walk away. Losing in Afghanistan, likewise.

But the Iranians have the West’s balls in a vise and the vise was slowly tightening. Key reserves were way down. Oil at Cushing OK is near historic lows. Distillates are getting scarce. Market manipulation of the price of oil was very successful, but actual physical shortages were on the way, starting in a month or so. (Ironically, price manipulation meant that oil reserves drew down faster than if actual price discovery had been allowed.)

There is a real world, and a real economy and Iran had control of it. The econo-morons talking about how the effect of this has been less than the oil shocks are right when looking at market numbers, but it wasn’t going to stay less and even Trump figured that out.

So the neocons and the hard Zionists will attack, but if Trump had the least concern for the actual economy, he had to make a choice.

Meanwhile Israel is still fighting in Lebanon and the first real battle of the Lebanese invasion is taking place.

Both Hezbollah and Israel are concerned there’ll be a new, actually real ceasefire and Israel is seeking to create facts on the ground. Ali Taher hill is an important strategic objective, giving whoever controls it sight lines for miles around. This is the first large engagement I’m aware of in this invasion where Hezbollah has chosen to stand and fight, instead hitting and fading. (That’s not a criticism. Guerilla warfare makes sense for them.)

And so far they’re doing well, because the Israeli ground forces are actually crap.

The Iranians have not gone to Geneva for the signing or negotiations. They are holding firm on Lebanon. And that means Trump can either rein in the Israelis or the vise starts tightening around America’s balls again.

America cannot win this war. It is impossible. Even using nukes probably wouldn’t work fast enough. That’s why they agreed to a deal that is very pro-Iranian.

That has not changed. They can rein in Israel or cut it loose now, or they can do it in two months when the US is in much more pain, or in 4 months when there are food riots.

There’s a real world. America lost a war that matters. There’s going to be a price for that. If America is smart and not completely controlled by Israel, they’ll pay that price now and if necessary cut Israel lose, because the price will go up every day if the MOU fails.

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

 

Vance Is Trying To Thread That Vice Presidential Needle

J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice-president has often said that his job is to support the president.

He’s also made sure that people know he was against the Iran war, the 12 day war, and so on, with careful leaks. Publicly he’s all pro-whatever Trump says or does, but he’s trying to have it both ways.

The MOU gave him a present, he was able to say that Israel are ungrateful turds who shouldn’t be so violent: nine million people can’t kill their way out of all of their foreign relations troubles, and that Trump is the only major world leader who has supported them (essentially true. In this calculus only Russia, China, Turkey and the US matter.) Israelis turning on Trump are ungrateful. (Well yes, but you didn’t expect people whose idea of making war is to kill children en-masse to have a fine moral sense.)

Anyway, here he is:

Vance has always had a very narrow road to follow. He wants to be President. He can’t directly oppose Trump on anything publicly because even if Trump is driven from office in disgrace, there’s a hard core of primary voters who will never give him up. On the other hand Trump’s becoming increasingly toxic and it’s pretty clear that he’s going to leave office very unpopular.

This issue killed Kamala. She was ahead and doing well. I still remember when she was asked on TV if there was anything she’d have done different than Biden. She said no. And it was at that moment I knew that Trump was going to win: she needed to say something, even something a bit weak “well, I admire what the President has done, but I’d like to have done even more to bring down grocery prices and to end the Gaza war” say.

Vance is attempting to get around this with his loyalty pledge: you support the President even if you disagree, but you can disagree and advise him so be hind the scenes.

He’s hoping that two-step, “I was loyal to Trump, but I would have done some things differently” will keep him electable.

We’ll see. A lot will depend on who Democrats nominate. Democrats rarely select their most popular candidate, they prefer party loyalists who can be expected to keep the corporate pork rolling and not upset important funders like the Israeli lobby.

If Democrats serve up a lukewarm candidate and if Vance makes his turn correctly, he could squeak in as the next President.

Iran MOU update: As predicted the Israelis kept attacking in Lebanon, the Iranians said they wouldn’t go to the signing in Geneva on Friday till the fighting stops, and negotiations won’t start till they do. Israel appears to be attempting to take an important strategic point Ali al-Taher hill. Hezbollah is going all out to stop them. We’ll see if the US is capable (politically, it can easily do so in principle) of discipling Israel. 

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Text of the Iran/US MOU

From Dropsite:

Paragraph 1: (end military ops including in Lebanon: this is the one that may blow it up.)

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this M.O.U. declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain [from] the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

Paragraph 2:

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

Paragraph 3: (This ain’t final, more to negotiate.)

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.

Paragraph 4: (Immediate end of US blockade, Iran has 30 days. US to remove forces.)

Immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of prewar traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

Paragraph 5: (no charge for passage thru the strait. At least for 60 days, I suspect Iran/Oman will try and have charges after that.)

Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

Paragraph 6: (US pays 300 billion in restitution. This is why Iran agreed to no fees for passage, at least for now.)

The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least U.S.D. 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

Paragraph 7: (End of sanctions.)

The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, I.A.E.A. Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Paragraph 8: (No nukes for Iran. Downblending in Iran under IAEA supervision.)

The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on the statutory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiation in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Paragraph 9: (No new sanctions, no new nuclear program.)

Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

Paragraph 10: (Again, end of sanctions: this time for oil products.)

The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

Paragraph 11: (Release of all frozen funds.)

The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

Paragraph 12:

The United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this M.O.U. and the future compliance of the final deal.

Paragraph 13: (Negotiation not over yet.)

After signing this M.O.U. and subject to the beginning of the implementation of Paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this M.O.U., and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

Paragraph 14:

The final deal will be endorsed by a binding U.N.S.C. resolution.


Commentary:

This is a decisive victory for Iran and a loss for Israel and America, though I’d argue that the US ending sanctions and military efforts in the Middle East is good for America. Still, there’s no question that this is the sort of deal that gets signed when one side (Iran) won and the other side (Israel and the US) lost.

I mean — 300 billion in reparations. The US end their blockade first. The US says it’ll get move forces out of the region. The US ends pretty much all sanctions and gives Iran back their money.

Massive win for Iran. Iran is now a great power in the region, and no one can deny it.

The obvious problem here is Israel. If Iran is serious about an end to violence in Lebanon, then this will wind up as a dead letter unless the US tightens Israel’s leash (which it can do, Israel is entirely dependent on US aid). Alternative the US could simply shrug, and make the deal only between them and Iran, and say “if Israel wants to keep fighting, it’s on its own.)

The question here is the power of the domestic lobby, and whether or not Israel has enough blackmail on Trump. (Signing this deal at all makes it look like the answer to , which I thought was “absolutely” may well be “nope, not enough.” We’ll see.)

The US is no longer a superpower. The world no longer has any superpowers. It’s still a great power with worldwide reach, but the days where it was the world’s “super cop” are over. It can still push around weak nations, but not strong regional powers. Took a little less than 30 years from the fall of the USSR for American elites to screw up a completely dominant position.

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Microsoft To Offer Deepseek Based AI Copilot

Regular readers will know that for a couple years I’ve been saying that Chinese open source AI would win the AI “war” because it’s cheaper and non proprietary (prices can’t just be raised suddenly, or capacities taken away.)

Over the last few months there’s been a lot of screams coming from regular AI users. OpenAI and Anthropic moved to token based billing, which is to say “you pay based on how much you use.” They still weren’t charging full rate, but they were charging a LOT more and users were not happy. One company spent 500 million by mistake: they forgot to put limits on how much their employees could spend.

Oops.

Nor are ordinary users exempt:

I Went From $3,000/Month on Claude to $5/Week on DeepSeek

And honestly? 80% of my work is identical.

For the past two months, I was burning $3-5K monthly on Claude Code. Every idea from design to development to testing – full end-to-end automation, even simulating users to test my products and provide feedback. Extremely token-intensive.

But Claude’s caching sucked, making it insanely expensive. Then I discovered DeepSeek V4.

The numbers: • Claude: $5 input, $25 output per million tokens •

DeepSeek: $0.28 input, <$1 output (with their current discount) • DeepSeek cached: $0.0002 – literally less than a penny The caching optimization is game-changing.

Once DeepSeek has seen content, it basically stops charging tokens. My result: $5/week vs $1,000/week for the same workload.

So now Microsoft has created their own minor Deepseek fork, and will run it on their servers to power Copilot. You can still use a version run by US labs, but if you can’t afford, or justify that, you can use the Deepseek version.

Driving the news: Microsoft says companies using Copilot Cowork will pay based on how much compute they use.
  • The company tells Axios it is exploring a fine-tuned version of DeepSeek V4, or another open-source model, as a lower-cost alternative to the Anthropic and OpenAI models now powering Copilot Cowork.
  • Microsoft says it expects to make a lower-cost model available in the coming weeks and will confirm its choice then.

Worse than this, there’s beginning to be serious pushback on whether AI is all that useful. Uber’s COO opened the door back in March:

In perhaps the most high-profile example of this growing concern yet, Uber COO Andrew Macdonald acknowledged during a recent podcast appearance that gains in productivity simply weren’t being reflected in the oodles of cash the company has been shelling out on AI.

“That link is not there yet, right?” he told Rapid Response host Bob Safian. “I think maybe implicitly there is more that is getting shipped, but it’s very hard to draw a line between one of those stats and, ‘Okay, now we’re actually producing 25 percent more useful consumer features.'”

“If you’re not actually able to draw a direct line to how much useful features and functionality you’re shipping to your users that trade becomes harder to justify because it’s not free,” he complained. “AI is not free.”

As far as I can tell there’s little evidence that US priced AI is more cost-effective than the employees who were laid off because it was so great. I rather suspect that in most cases, it’s less cost-effective.

But more importantly we have the “it’s better to be wrong with the crowd” effect moving against AI. In almost all positions, including executive ones, if you’re wrong in the same way that everyone else is wrong, it’s no big deal. If you’re wrong against the crowd (say not getting into AI when the rest of your industry is) and it turns out that AI is the next big thing, well, you’re fired.

So much of the AI mania was driven by this and a relentless hype cycle. Now that important people are beginning to push back on it, it’s no longer required to be all-in on AI. And that’s bad for Anthropic and Claude.

AI is not the next coming. It is not going to make it to general AI (not this generation of large language models anyway) and while it does have some utility the US frontier models cost far more to operate than any conceivable return most of their customers will receive. It isn’t the “get rid of three-quarters of your employees” super app corporate leaders were promised.

And to the extent it is useful, well Chinese open source models are more cost effective. As good? Generally no. But they keep catching up, and paying 70 to 97% less makes up for being somewhat behind.

So to the extent that AI is a real industry, odds are high China’s going to win the race. Since the models that will win will be built off open source models that’s not a crisis for anyone, it’s a good thing, far better than a proprietary future.

BUT it does mean that US AI expenditures are probably going to turn out to be the biggest misallocation of resources in centuries: bigger than the housing bubble and bigger than the dot-com bubble (which at least did have a world changing technology behind it.) Not quite the Dutch tulip bubble, but at least the Dutch got lots of pretty flowers of that, instead of massive ugly data centers.

Business is driven by stupid people engaged in group think, especially in the West, far more than most people will admit. Everything Silicon Valley does these days is someone trying to create a monopoly or oligopoly so they can be insanely profitable, while China actually competes on price, and that’s why China keeps eating the West’s lunch.

I’d cry, except that an open source AI world is a far better one than a proprietary one, and every tear some Silicon Valley tech bro cries over a lost opportunity to make a monopolistic buck an angel gets their wings.

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The Cruelty Is the Point: American Execution Edition

I recently stumbled across a story about the Supreme Court (not exactly bleeding heart liberals) refusing to let Alabama use nitrogen suffocation:

An Alabama man facing the death penalty by nitrogen gas was spared Thursday as the U.S. Supreme Court refused to set aside a lower-court ruling that found the method is unconstitutionally cruel, issuing a brief order that came well after the hour originally planned to initiate Jeffery Lee’s execution…

…During the previous Alabama nitrogen executions, the inmates shook, pulled at the restraints and exhibited labored breathing. During the state’s last execution by nitrogen gas, 30 minutes elapsed between Anthony Boyd exhibiting signs of being impacted by the gas and state officials closing the curtain to the viewing room to signal the execution was complete.

The idea is that you breathe, but the gas you’re breathing is nitrogen, so eventually you die.

Of course this is going to suck, anyone who’s ever suffocated or had serious breathing issues knows that one of the worst feelings in the world is not being able to breathe.

There’s been a lot of this sort of thing going on: the company that used to sell drugs for execution stopped doing so, and various US states have been looking for alternatives. The prisoner in this case wants a firing squad, figuring it’s quicker and less painful.

Meanwhile up here in Canada we have legal assisted suicide. It’s a controversial program, because it seems like the government or various relatives are a little too eager about it. (After all, dead people don’t take up hospital beds and dead relatives don’t cause problems.) I think assisted suicide is often a good thing, but easily abused, however we’ll leave a moral deep dive for another article.

The thing is there’s never any criticism that it is a painful death. I looked into it. They give the patient:

  1. An anxiolytic and sedative drug: Midazoloam.
  2. They give them a drug to put them into a coma-like state with a rapid acting drug: Profofol. Then,
  3. They give them a drug which causes paralysis, including of the lungs. Rocuronium. The patient dies of suffocation, same as with helium (or Hemlock, which Socrates was executed with.)

But the patient doesn’t suffer, because they’re deeply unconscious.

This protocol works, it’s well known, so why not use it?

Because Alabama and other US states want the prisoner to suffer. Moaning about expense is ridiculous, however expensive it is it’s cheaper than keeping a prisoner on death row, same as it’s cheaper than keeping a patient in hospital.

Executing prisoners without causing undue suffering is a solved problem. Alabama and other states like it just want the prisoner to suffer, so they keep searching for a method that will be painful and courts will allow.

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Nothing Is Wrong With Transhumanism In Theory

Only in practice.

Transhumanism is one of those topics where I feel like Marx declaring “I am not a Marxist.”

Do I think transhumanism is basically a good idea?

Absofuckinglutely.

Do I like most of the people who call themselves transhumanists?

Fuck no.

I don’t like being human. I’ve spent days on end screaming in agony. I’ve lain in a mixture of my own puke and shit for hours, in so much pain I couldn’t move. I’ve thrown up more than many bulemics.

Then there’s aging.

Then there’s other people (see Israel, dog rape, genocide, etc, etc..)

Now don’t get me wrong: humans can be great. Someone did eventually come to my hospital room (an orderly, they do the real work) and clean off all the vomit and shit and a nurse did once save my life (I wasn’t entirely thrilled at the time, but she gave a damn.)

But the fact is that human life is often ass, aging sucks, illness sucks, being weak and powerless and pushed around by your own government or someone else’s government sucks, and so on. We’re stuck in bodies we didn’t choose, which often spend lots of time hurting us grievously and making us sick.

So if we could extend lifespans a lot while ALSO reducing the effect of aging, I’d be all for it. (We’ve done a bit of this already.) If we can reduce pain and suffering and disease and so on, I’m all for it.

If we can increase abundance and have a society where people don’t have to work but still have more than enough, that’s great!

And if someone wants to change their body so they like it more, I’m all for that. Good for them!

The problem with transhumanism is transhumanists counting virtual people who don’t exist and pretending their making decisions which will make trillions of people in an imaginary future better off while hurting people living today.

Silicon Valley morons who think they’re brilliant because they’re rich and who don’t get that improvements that don’t wind up helping the majority, but are gated behind massive fees are good for them, and no one else are the flag-bearers of modern transhumanism. It’s more likely the way we’re going that transhumanist technologies, as they are developed, will give us an elite that is smarter, healthier, fitter and lives longer while the masses live shit lives, suffer and die in droves.

It’s the problem with doing anything thru non-competitive markets. You want palliatives, not cures. You want a cure for cancer that costs 50K a pop, not to sell it just above unit costs so everyone can be cancer free.

If your first priority is being rich, and your second priority is helping people, your second priority doesn’t functionally exist.

Transhumanism is a great idea. I think human bodies basically suck. I think better bodies that hurt a lot less, age less and so and are modifiable so we can make our own choices rather than accept the result of evolution and the genetic lottery of who our parents are is a good idea. And while we’ve got a pretty good Pope right now, Christians can stick “suffering is good” where the sun don’t shine. They can have it, leave me out.

But too many modern transhumanists are obsessed with theoretical people who don’t exist yet and with getting rich, and not making sure everyone benefits.

If they can’t be trusted to even spread the wealth, how can they be trusted to share permanent genetic and technological advantages they could wealth gate to create a genetic (cybernetic?) aristocracy which is actually superior?

Transhumanism: great idea, despite what the trads say (If God made us so we suffer this much, that isn’t a good thing, it’s proof God is a piece of garbage.)

Modern transhumanists: mostly just people who want to be superior and gate it behind toll booths that make them wealthy and leave most people without the benefits.

(Aside: I’m putting off writing about the new Iran deal till we see the actual text of the agreement. Too many people saying too many different things. It sure does look like a US loss, but if so it’s a good thing even from a nativist perspective for the US to admit it rather than dragging out a situation which hurts them more than Iran.)

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