I haven’t written a lot about the US elections. The Democrats will win, since Trump has completely trashed the US economy with his policies and caused a cost of living crisis (you ain’t seen nothin’yet), the only question is how large the Democratic wave is.
Democrats controlling Congress is unlikely to make much of a difference. Even if they have enough votes they won’t remove Presidential war powers, even though constitutionally those belong to Congress and were given by Congress to the President. Likewise Trump’s signature policies of erratic tariffs with no plan and violent immigration enforcement will not cease.
It’s hard to predict Trump, but the evidence suggests another attack on Iran immediately after the election. The US has been shifting massive resources to the Middle East in preparation. The Iranians, once again, seem unlikely to attack first even though they can see the buildup, so I guess they’ll tank the first hit again.
Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike.
Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.
It’s hard to overstate how bad this could be. Even a conventional attack appears likely to provoke a massive response from the Iranians, and they’ve been warning that they’ll hit targets they avoided last time, especially if the US hits Iranian oil infrastructure.
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If there’s a nuclear attack, all bets are off. The Iranians will retaliate with everything they have, and they’ve said they’ll take out Israel’s nuclear facilities and its desalination plants, plus hit US companies in the Gulf, possibly cut the underwater internet cables, and likely take out as much oil and industrial infrastructure in Gulf countries as possible.
Downstream, once the US uses nukes, everyone else will feel much freer to use them, and everyone will want nukes of their own as protection, since the taboo will have been broken. It’s one of the first steps towards a new war, possibly even a nuclear war.
This is sheerest insanity, and the people pushing for this are absolute scum, and in most cases stupid. (Netanyahu is not stupid, he cares more about himself than Israel or anything else. He’s completely selfish and genocidal.)
If there isn’t an attack my judgment is that Iran will eventually force a peace more on their terms than America’s. The economic pressure is getting severe, and oil and fertilizer stockpiles are dwindling. They’ve been much more aggressively enforcing their blockade and unlike before, they’re actually destroying tankers. Before they usually just disabled them.
If there is an attack, Iran will still “win” but no one, including them, is going to come out of this without catastrophic economic damage.
The world is on the brink. US elections will not change that. Nothing will seriously change until America admits it has lost the war and makes peace on terms that reflect that.
That remains the most likely outcome, but the longer it takes for America to admit it’s loss, the worse the suffering will be. I repeat my advice to stock up on fuel, food, medicine and other goods (motor oil, etc…)
As for America, until there’s an actual opposition party, elections will simply shuffle the chairs on the deck and inexorable American decline will continue.
