Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Character & The Fate of Nations

Back in 2013 year I wrote a large number of pieces on ideology, and quite a few were about character: how it is created by experience, and how specific types of character (like sociopathy) are selected for amongst our leadership classes.

This is a reprint from 2014, then called “Matters of Character”. I think it’s important and that newer readers would benefit from reading it.

Let’s parse this out:

1) Character (personality), determines how people act.

2) While part of character is clearly genetic, much of it forms out of our experiences. Different experiences create different types of character. As a simple thought exercise, you would be a very different person if you had been born five hundred years ago in, say, Central Africa, than you are today.

3) As children, our primary experience is of school. We are a very schooled society, with the upper classes starting school at age 5 or so, and continuing into their mid twenties. Twenty years of schooling is not uncommon. Fifteen to sixteen is completely normal.

4) This schooling takes place when we are forming much of our character, when we are most susceptible to having our character changed.

5) In addition to this, we are influenced by media of various kinds (including books), our parents, and our peer group.

6) Different time periods form different characters, as do different nations, because people born in those times and places have different experiences. The more synchronized events are, as Newberry has noted, the stronger this is. In a mass media society, with relatively fast technological and social change, it makes sense to speak of generations. The character of people born 20 or 30 years apart in modern societies will be different, and within cohorts similar experiences will tend to create somewhat similar patterns of character.

7) Society is nothing except people and their creations and interactions over time. Walk around an old neighbourhood one day, and look at the buildings, the road, the trees and think about all the people who made everything you see, and all the people behind those people. Read the laws, and know that people made those, and enforce those.

8 ) Because society is just people, past and present, the nature of society is formed by our character.

9) If we want a different society, we must deal with matters of character.

10) Because we should be leery of engaging in eugenics, for reasons which should be obvious, changing society involves changing character through changing our lived experiences.

 


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11) Everyone’s character matters, but some people’s character matters more than others. The more power someone has, whether that power comes from political position, charisma, force, or money, the more their character matters.

12) Leaders inform the character of people. People tend to act up, or down, to their leadership.

13) Money is permission. The more money you have, the more you get to decide what other people do. This can be directly through hiring them, or indirectly by buying the products of other people’s time. As the market society has spread to more and more of our lives, what we do is what gets paid for.

14) Who we give money to, and be clear that what banks, government and financial institutions do is decide who gets money, and what they get to spend it on, determines much of the lived experience of adults, and indeed of children outside school, and with the rise of for-profit schooling, inside school.

15) Money positions are of three main types. Elected (taxes); officers (CEOs and so on who control a lot of money that isn’t theirs); actually rich (the money is their own).

16) In all three cases who gets that money is a social choice. Billionaires are a social choice, created by government policy including tax policy, and the entire structure of how profits are booked. Multi-millionaire CEOs are a social choice, created by tax and other laws as well as social norms. And politicians are a social choice, especially in a democracy, but even in autocracies, though in such societies few people’s active and passive consent is needed.

17) If we select for positions of power, whether monetary, political, or charismatic, people whose character is such that they do not insist on good outcomes for the majority of people, then those outcomes will occur only by chance, if the happenstance of technology and environment aligns in what amounts to random fashion. Having not been planned, having not been understood, any such prosperity and freedom will not last.

18) If society is just us, and is a matter of our character combined with environment and technology, then we must consciously choose what we want our character to be. If we look at how we raise children and see that it is not creating the sort of people required for a happy, free, healthy, and prosperous society, then we need to change how we rear children. This is a social decision, not an individual one: we can choose a different type of learning (not necessarily schooling), we can choose a different type of media, we can choose to encourage different types of parenting (parenting styles have changed massively over the last 100 years, more than once).

19) We can also change how we select our leaders, both political and economic, to whom we give money, and for what purpose. We already do: Who makes money is a social choice, embedded in our tax code, laws (like “IP”), and monetary system. We can make other choices and create a system where people make money because they do good, not because they do evil (see “bankers”).

20) We can change our adult experience of the world, and when we change how goods and services are distributed (note that I did not use the word “money”), we will change our experience of the world, and in so doing we will change our character.

21) We can do so even if our current character is flawed. The politicians who ended Jim Crow were themselves mostly racists. They were racists who knew that racism was wrong. It is possible to look at one’s own character and know that it is simply a product of experience: to say “I am racist and sexist but I still know that is wrong.” It is possible to be involved in corruption (Kennedy Sr., the first SEC chairman) and decide to help clean it up, to end it. It is possible to have all the accoutrements of privilege (FDR) and turn around and change society mostly for the better.

We are all products of our time and place. We are all products of our parents and our experiences; millions of small events which shaped our character, for good, for ill, for kicks.

All of us (except maybe a few enlightened sages).

The full realization of how shaped we are is one of the watersheds of any voyage worth having. If you cannot look at yourself, and see how shaped you were, then you are trapped by those experiences, an even more limited and finite being than you need to be.

Once, however, you see the shaping, feel it, know it, and acknowledge it, then you are not free, but you have the potential to be more free, to change what you are and who you are, both individually, and as a group.

Character matters. It is destiny. Change your character, change your destiny. Change the character of nations; change their destiny.

Change the character of humanity; change our destiny.

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China Isn’t Just Going To Win AI, It Will Win Semiconductors As Well

Regular readers know that I’ve projected China winning the AI market (not necessarily the race). The argument is simple: Chinese AI is a lot cheaper and it’s open source, which means you can’t be cut off or arbitrarily have your price raised or the AI crippled with restrictions. (Well, not easily.)

Chinese open models are cheaper and come with less risk. Most of the world will use them. The frontier models are, sometimes, better, but the open models are about 6 months behind at most, it’s not enough.

The rule for competing with Chinese companies is simple: you must be more advanced and stay more advanced. Anything they can make, they can make cheaper than you can, with a few exceptions, mostly outside of manufacturing.

But there’s another issue. Chips.

If you’ve needed to replace your computer or phone you know that chip prices have gone WAY up. Even the low and middle tier stuff is way more expensive than two years ago as AI companies hoover up chips for data centers. (Many of which won’t be built, and most chips are actually in warehouses.)

China’s been working on chips, hard, ever since Trump’s sanctions in his first term. They’re going to scale and since they’re good at doing things cheap as they scale they will take over the low and middle end CPU, memory, GPU and other chip markets, while US/Korean/Taiwanese companies sell to American AI companies.

When the AI bubble bursts, and it will, not because AI isn’t a real tech, but because this is a bubble the companies that ignored consumers to make record profits will find that China has taken over the markets they used to own.

Then China, because it actually does most of the low and middle end manufacturing, in country, will beat them on advanced chips, because the tech lead goes where the manufacturing floor is.

 


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The simplest truth of capitalism is that you get more of what you pay for. Money sends the message and resources required to do things. In most cases your power is tiny, one of millions, but this isn’t like that because the numbers and the need (to keep the blog and Ian running) are relatively small.

So if you value this blog, if it’s worth having around to you, please consider Subscribing or Donating.


This is… bad, but frankly, I need to replace my computer in the next couple years so I’m not crying. If Western companies don’t care to sell me their products at reasonable prices, yeah, I’ll buy Chinese.

The loss of high end markets has already started:

Huawei AI NPU Servers to Land in Korea in Q4, Throwing Down the Gauntlet to NVIDIA Huawei will launch its artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator chips in the Korean market for the first time in the fourth quarter of this year. Following the completion of a distribution agreement covering domestic sales, the company has been observed preparing its sales operations, including technical training and pricing policy development. Amid exploding demand for AI infrastructure, Huawei is expected to knock on the door of the Korean market by positioning itself as an alternative that resolves dependence on NVIDIA and offers price competitiveness.

A little math. Each 910 chip has 70% of the compute of the NVidia alternative, but draws 40% of the power.

There’s one other thing to bear in mind: the massive construction of data centers in the West is driving up energy prices and that drives up costs for every manufacturing company in the West, so even outside of chips/AI Western industry will be less price competitive.

If it wasn’t for European and Japanese leaders, I’d think that America has the stupidest leaders in the world.

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 08, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 08, 2026
by Tony Wikrent

 

Our Shiny Next War, The Democrats’ Shiny Next Win 

Thomas Neuburger [God’s Spies].

… David Sirota outlines that problem quite well. His title: “Haley Stevens’ Betrayal Is A Warning: Corporate Dems Are MAGA’s Enablers”. The piece may be paywalled. Click here to read his remarks appended below. As he writes:

a positive anti-MAGA election would not be the end of anything. It would only be the beginning of a much longer battle….

I swear, Democrats could rule for a full generation if they just FDR-ed themselves.

 

New Oversight Roadmap for 120th Congress Outlines Key Accountability Priorities

Heather Souvaine Horn, Nov 05, 2026 [Public Citizen]

Public Citizen celebrated election results on Wednesday by publishing an “Oversight Agenda Roadmap” for the new Congress. “The American people are demanding much more than grandstanding and ritual condemnation of the most corrupt administration in American history,” said Public Citizen co-president Robert Weissman in the organization’s press release. The punchy first suggestion in the report: Hold hearings interviewing food bank leaders, health care providers, and more about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s “real-world impacts” while also investigating “how corporations used the financial gains from OBBBA, including decisions related to layoffs, wages, hiring, domestic investment, executive compensation, stock buybacks, and shareholder distributions” and determining “whether the economic promises used to justify OBBBA—including job creation, wage growth, and business investment—have materialized.”

 

The Ground We Walked: A Moral Monday Night of Gratitude and Reflection

Bishop William Barber, II and Rev. Dr. Hanna R. Broome, Nov 7, 2026

We Made History.
Now We Finish the Work.

Beginning in November 2025, we launched a mighty push to push back and move forward. It started in North Carolina. It moved to Raleigh. It carried us to Washington, D.C. And it grew into a national call: 1,000 Marches to the Polls.

And you answered., Leaders in communities across the nation committed to more than 700 marches. Clergy and moral leaders, people of many traditions and people of no faith, walked with their neighbors to the polls. God blessed our efforts.

But this work did not begin last November. It stands on 13 years of struggle. In 2013, the first Moral Monday began with 17 people. By 2014, more than 100,000 people filled the streets of Raleigh. Since then, moral fusion has taken root across this country, and especially in the South.

This was the work of the people. You showed this nation how to build diverse coalitions. How to mobilize poor and low-wage people as leaders, not as an afterthought. How to love forward together. How to turn the streets into a classroom. How to embrace a Third Reconstruction agenda that is bigger than poverty alone. How to take on religious extremism. How to practice moral defiance.

Monday, November 9, 2026 8:00 PM Eastern  |  7:00 PM Central  |  6:00 PM Mountain  |  5:00 PM Pacific

RSVP for Monday Night

Information Overlord: Can Jeffries and Schumer Dam the Blue Wave?

Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

What I Released This Week

Election night kind of overwhelmed me; I’m not used to staying up that late! Will be more productive next week.

The Democrats are the dogs who caught the car and think they’re really fast and have strong jaws when in reality voter rage at Trump’s losing war on Iran, data center madness, the ongoing genocide in Gaza virtually guaranteed the opposition party a huge win.

It appears neither the House nor the Senate will overthrow the corrupt and incompetent leadership, so I’m not especially optimistic about the future, but it’s nice to see that American voters can still throw a tantrum and get noticed, however briefly.

From me as Nate Wilcox at the Let It Roll Podcast

The From the Beginning Project is hitting a fun patch. The 1930s were a spectacular decade for dance music. A massive depression will do that, and the U.S. was culturally potent like it had never been, combining cultures and rhythms in a way that got the whole world’s attention.


It’s Ian’s annual fundraiser. This allows us to cover the changeover of hegemony from America to China, environmental collapse, internal US fascism, what a better society would look like, Gaza, AI, the coming stock market crash and various other issues. As of this writing we’ve raised about $9,460 out of a $14,500 goal, from 75 people. It’d be great if you can help out (please don’t donate if your financial situation is dire.) You can Subscribe or Donate here or contact Ian at admin-at-ianwelsh-dot-net if you need another way to donate (mail, usually. A lot of cash apps don’t work in Canada.)


From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw & the Mad Squabbles Show

Will TKO Blame Dana White for Trump’s Midterm Disaster? — The Mad Squabbles Show (YouTube), Nov. 4th.

What I’ve Been Reading and Watching

Dems

Will the Democrats Betray Us Again? — The Chris Hedges Report (YouTube).

AI Bubble

OpenAI Is Screwed — The Tech Report (YouTube).

What Are All Those Data Centers For — Inside China Business (YouTube).

WTF Just Happened to Global Markets? — Eurodollar University (YouTube).

Crypto

North Korea Robbed Binance — Patrick Boyle (YouTube).

Deep State

  • 9/11 as a Structural Deep Event — Peter Dale Scott. “Early on the day of of 9/11 Vice-President Cheney and Defense Secretrary Donald Rumsfeld, while George W. Bush was absent in Florida, implemented the elaborate rules of Continuity of Government (COG), a once once described in Congress without rebuttal as ‘a plan to suspend the American Constitution.’ It was also a plan on which the same pair, Cheney and Rumsfeld, had been working on in secret for two decades – even when both men were outsude government and heading important private corporations.
    “I wrote in 2014 that with a few notable exceptions, there has thus far been scant interest in the media and the public in the extraordinary facts that Cheney and Rumsfeld were able to
    “1. help plan successfully for constitutional modifications, when they were not in government, and
    “2. implement these same changes themselves when back in power.”

Follow and Support My Work at NatWilsonTurner.com

Open Thread

Use this post to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Americans Still Love Billionaires Too Much

We’re about 2 weeks into our annual fundraiser. We’ve raised about $8,955 out of a $14,500 goal from 69 people. This blog is free for everyone to read, and we’ve got about ten thousand visitors a month. Of those about 6K are regulars. 

The simplest truth of capitalism is that you get more of what you pay for. Money sends the message and resources required to do things. In most cases your power is tiny, one of millions, but this isn’t like that because the numbers and the need (to keep the blog and Ian running) are relatively small.

So if you value this blog, if it’s worth having around to you, please consider Subscribing or Donating.


There was a fair bit of good news during the election, but one vote which went very wrong was California’s vote on a one time wealth tax on billionaires, proposition. It failed 55% against, 45% for.

California’s a fairly “blue” state, but still, Americans won’t tax the rich.

And the simple truth is that nothing significant can be done to fix America as long as it’s an oligopoly: as long as the rich control government. There are some good signs, of course, billionaires spent a lot of money trying to stop the blue wave and failed. Millions were spent against progressive candidates like El-Sayed and failed.

But money is what gives oligarchs power: power to bribe, power to fund intellectuals and propagandists, power to control government for their own ends. As the famous Princeton oligarchy study detailed, the opinions of ordinary people have no effect on policy.

The bottom line is fairly simple: since elites don’t experience most of the shit parts of life in the US, they don’t care. Education sucks? So what, their kids go to private school. Healthcare sucks? So what, they can bypass the crap and get the best care. Security at airports and a crappy flight experince? They don’t go through the same security, since they fly on private jets.

Welfare keeps getting cut because they want the money for other priorities and they control most politicians. AI could steal everyone’s IP except a few groups with lawyers, same reason. Food prices don’t effect them, it could go up ten times, and it’d be a rounding error to the expenses.

In general, they certainly don’t want low prices, because high prices benefit them more than harm them. Cost of living? If you’re rich, it’s irrelevant.

The most fundamental rule of good societies is that people with power and wealth can’t be allowed to buy their way out of the experience of ordinary people. No private schools. No private jets. No private health care that is unaffordable to ordinary people. No wars that they or their children don’t fight in themselves.

As long as the rich have a lock on political power they will control the US and until a majority of people understand that and vote and act as if rich people are the enemy, life will keep getting worse. It’s that simple.

 

JD Vance Continues To Maneuver Towards His 2028 Run

Vance published a long piece on why Republicans lost the elecctions. It’s… not insane and more correct than not. First: Republicans voted Democratic.

I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

Second.

(a pollster he trusts) saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war

2) Focus on cost of living/inflation

3) Put America First

4) Change our relationship to Israel

This is pretty accurate overall. He’s sticking hard to anti-immigration policies though:

In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

And his summary:

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country.

To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

Again, not insane. And very obviously with an eye towards a Presidential run in 2028. Vance has done this sort of thing all through his time as Vice President: support the President while making it clear he doesn’t agree with everything Trump has done. He’s trying to thread a needle: Trump’s hard core supporters won’t tolerate dissing Trump, but if he wants to win both the primary and the election, he needs to create distance between himself and Trump.

In 2024 the moment I knew that Harris wouldn’t win (remember, she was ahead for much of the campaign) was when she was asked if she’d have done anything differently than Biden and she said no. People were unhappy with Biden, and that was the moment she put a gun in her electoral chances and pulled the trigger.

Vance isn’t that stupid.


It’s my annual fundraiser. This allows us to cover the changeover of hegemony from America to China, environmental collapse, internal US fascism, what a better society would look like, Gaza, AI, the coming stock market crash and various other issues. As of this writing we’ve raised about $8,955 out of a $14,500 goal, from 69 people. It’d be great if you can help out (please don’t donate if your financial situation is dire.) You can Subscribe or Donate here or contact me at admin-at-ianwelsh-dot-net if you need another way to donate (mail, usually. A lot of cash apps don’t work in Canada.)


I think that in some ways Vance is much more dangerous than Trump. Vance is much more disciplined and a lot smarter (this doesn’t mean he’s brilliant, I’ve had dogs who were smarter than Trump.) But he’s a creature of Peter Thiel, he’s xenophobic despite having an Indian wife and he’s willing to do anything to grab the brass ring.

It’ll be interesting to see if he can thread the needle and it’ll be interesting to see how much support Trump keeps losing (since the economy is just going to keep getting worse until a few months after he actually ends the war with Iran in a way that gets them to stop blockading the Strait.)

Overall I am not optimistic, the fundamental problem in the US is that the majority of people in power are delusional. They think that this is America in the 90s or 50s, at the height of its power, not a nation that has made itself abhorrent to most of the rest of the world, shipped its industry to China and which can’t even re-arm properly without materials from China which are increasingly subject to sanctions.

America needs a reset and I doubt Vance is the one to do it.

Democrats Take The Senate & House

Not surprising:

These results are from about five AM. They will change, but the overall results are firm.

The first thing to watch for, though it’s a way out, will be what the Senate rules are, in particular, the filibuster rules. If the filibuster is kept, Democrats aren’t serious about challenging Trump or changing anything.


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The second question is whether “designated villain” where just enough Dems vote with Republicans to stall anything popular but against the elite consensus is used. I’d be very surprised if it isn’t, but I’d be happy to be wrong.

The election result is primarily about cost of living and the Iran war, which are mostly the same thing to Americans. I have a hard time imaging Democrats actually Congressional power over war making or the purse to stop Trump’s war. They certainly won’t do a damn thing about Israel and its genocide.

I don’t actually think this election matters very much. Most of what Trump does that is objectionable is based on Presidential powers, either innate or which were delegated to the Presidency by various Congresses. Again, if Democrats start taking back the powers that were delegated, you’ll know they’re serious, if not, they aren’t. It’s that simple.

I’ve seen some people suggest that if the Dems don’t do anything significant, it might lead to a third party. I doubt it: Americans have been sheep for generations. Again, happy to be wrong, and hope I am.

We can expect a fair bit of screaming at Trump and meaningless votes. He might get impeached in the House, but I doubt the Senate will actually remove him even if so.

America is determined to go down, to lose what remains of its hegemony, except over Latin America (that’ll take another 20 years or so), and to continue impoverishing the mass of citizens so it can mint more billionaires.

Everything else is, sadly, noise, which is why I don’t cover US politics much these days.

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