The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: January 2010

Number of Democrats thinking of not voting in 2010 up to 45%

How to (not) win elections and motive the base:

the highest percentage of Democrats to date (45%) indicated this week that they are either unlikely to vote, or certain not to vote.

Once more, doing things badly (health care “reform”, an inadequate stimulus, refusing to properly take on the banks) or doing things the base opposed (escalating in Afghanistan) has a price.

In 1994 Clinton lost Congress. He lost it in large part because of NAFTA, failing at health care reform and the the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell fiasco.  Democratic base voters stayed home and Republicans were motivated.  Doing “moderate” things didn’t make Republicans not vote against Democrats, but it did make Democrats not vote Democrats.

Clinton may have gone on to win re-election in 1996, but after losing Congress, he did very few truly progressive things and did or signed off on many non-progressive things, like Welfare “reform” and gutting Glass-Steagall (a major reason for the financial crisis.)

Obama stands to repeat.  His major achievement, health care reform, is too compromised to really motivate the base.  He has two things going for him:

  • a large money advantage, since they are now the favored party of corporate America, and raking in money as a result;
  • the Republicans being in severe disarray.

The next year will have some bones thrown to the base, in an attempt to convince them to get out and vote.  But since Obama can’t, and won’t, do anything major for the base, I wonder what they’ll be. Healthcare is off the table, the immigration bill will not be good, carbon trading will be badly done and so on.

Convincing base voters they haven’t been betrayed, that there is hope and the change doesn’t mean “Bush’s 3rd term” is going to be an uphill struggle.

Happy New Year

To all my readers, a happy new year.  I hope your last year was good, and that your new year will be better.

Remembering Alan Brown

It’s odd, but new years eve I received I note that my old headmaster, Alan Brown, had died.  I suspect Alan (or Mr. Brown, as I still think of him) thought I didn’t like him, but in fact I both like and respected him.

He ran a highly disciplined school, and was a stern taskmaster, but there was also a deep kindness in him.  He knew every student’s name, of around 500 and kept a firm finger on the pulse of the school.  If there were problems, he knew what they were, and they got dealt with if at all possible.  I remember in particular him asking my permission to deal with one kid who was tormenting me in grade 9.  Of course, I was horrified at the thought, but he swore to me that he wouldn’t make things worse, so I gave my ok.  And indeed, the kid stopped bothering me.  To this day I have no idea what he said, but I was very impressed.

I don’t think I was his type of his teenager.  He was big on “building characer”, athletics, and so on and I wasn’t the sort of student the school really admired: square jawed, athletic and brilliant.  But I don’t remember him ever being unkind and in fact I remember his kindness well and it impressed me all the more because I wasn’t his preferred kind of student.

I remember in particular making him absolutely furious (though he never said a word to me directly) when there was  a day we were supposed to skip lunch to show we understood hunger.  I was, I think, the only student at the senior school who walked down the junior school and ate.  I had a race that afternoon, and be damned if I was going to run it without fuel.  The race took place in the semi-wilderness of the University of British Columbia’s endowment lands, and the course was not well marked.  So about half the runners ran off in the wrong direction, and the race was called.  So I made him furious for, in the end, nothing.

But that epitomized much of my stay at Saints.  As the years went on I can became sullen and stubborn, not doing enough to be punishable, but definitely a pain in the butt.

My last memory of him, which saddens me slightly, is after graduation. Having hated the school with a passion (though still preferring it to living at home), I didn’t go to most of the graduation events.  I did go to one, at a very nice mansion on the coast, just to see how the other half lived.  It was an area with no bus service, so I walked in.  When I was leaving, Alan drove by in his car, with a couple of other students, and asked if I wanted a lift.  I waved him off.

I’m sure he thought it an insult to him, but in fact, I didn’t like the people he was with.  The event was the last event involving Saints I intended to ever go to, and I wanted to put the school behind me.

Nonetheless I remember him fondly.  He was a good man, stern but kind, who seemed not to have a mean bone in his body (though that certainly didn’t stop him from ladling out punishment duty.)  I don’t know if there’s an afterlife, but if there is, my best wishes go with him.  He, and his family, can be proud of the life he lived and the man he was.

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