The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: April 2010 Page 3 of 4

What you need to understand about taxation and externalities

Economists like to talk about externalities. An externality is just a benefit or a negative which the originator either can’t be paid for (if it’s a positive externality) or whose cost they don’t bear (if it’s a negative externality). Pollution is a negative externality – the cost of air pollution in terms of asthma and deaths is not born by big air polluters like coal plants, for example. Public roads provide positive externalities – they enable commerce and industry to ship goods and gain profits and those who build the road don’t directly receive a cut off the new business they make possible. Another example of a positive externality is good health care – the value of people not being sick does not go to health care providers, but to the employers of the healthy people.

When you’re designing tax policy a general principle is that you want to tax people the cost of their negative externalities. So, if an industry pollutes, they should pay the cost of cleaning up the pollution and the healthcare costs of those who are made sick by their pollution. Not only is this fair, but it makes markets function better because it means the true costs of an economic activity are actually accounted for where they belong. In a pollution scenario the costs of polluting are born by individuals, hospitals, other business in terms of absenteeism, and by governments who pay for health care – not by the polluting company. Since they aren’t paid for by the polluter, that polluter’s goods are underpriced – they don’t include all the costs of the activity.

A good which is underpriced will be overproduced.

This is also an argument for differential taxation. Let’s take railways versus roads. Roads – or rather cars, trucks and so on – produce a lot more pollution than railways. In addition they are, in effect, subsidized by public expenditures building and maintaining the road network.. On the other hand railways move people with a lot fewer negative externalities – fewer accidents, less pollution, less noise. However railways bear much more of their own infrastructure cost because they have to build and maintain their own railways or rent the use of them from other rail lines that do. When you add up all the numbers, rail travel costs less than road travel, but that cost isn’t born equally with people who travel by road. (Trucks, for example, are effectively massively subsidized). The same is true of airline travel, which is subsidized far, far more than rail travel. The cost to society of moving a thousand people or a thousand tons by train is a lot less than the cost to society of a thousand people in car or plane. But because railways are subsidized much less it winds up costing much more. However, since the real costs of rail are less than the real costs of air or road travel, it should cost less. The current market and government regime of subsidies doesn’t do that. Instead it underprices road and air travel and overprices rail travel.

A good which is underpriced will be overproduced. And a good, like rail travel, which is overpriced, will be underproduced.

This is also the argument for subsidizing the arts, universities and so on. There would have been no Massachusetts miracle without universities, no Silicon Valley without universities. Museums, theaters and so on bring economic activity to the communities that host them. But most of the money they bring to a community they don’t capture. Restaurants, hotels, cab drivers, airlines and a host of other businesses receive the vast majority of the money that a museum or a theater district, say, is responsible for. How many people visit New York or Toronto for theater? How much money do they spend? And how much of that do the theaters themselves get? Since positive externalities are produced by those institutions – externalities they cannot capture, it is not unreasonable to subsidize them some portion of how much extra economic activity they bring to their communities.

It is the job of government to produce or subsidize that which has strong positive externalities. The reason for this is that the government doesn’t have to know who is going to benefit, only that someone does. It’s not necessary for government to know which specific businesses will benefit from a good university in town, it is only necessary to know that some will, and that you’re taxing them. On the other hand, in a pure for-profit university, it would be necessary to charge enough people who would benefit. That would mean the students themselves (rather than the businesses who also benefit from having educated workers) and those businesses who are given access to research. The result of this would be fewer students getting a unversity education (because they are paying full price, even though much of the benefit will be received by the businesses who hire them) and research will not be widely disseminated but will be used only by those businesses who can afford to pay. Unfortunately the greatest economic benefit is that research be widely disseminated so that anyone can use it, because you never really know who might be able to profit. All those businesses that could never profit, or that never existed, because they never knew of the new research, are part of the cost of private research.

An entirely private university system in which research is also private, then, produces much less benefit for society as a whole. If everyone had to pay Harvard rates for an education, there’d be a lot fewer educated people. And as we move towards a research system in which private interests pay, and lock up the research, there is less and less benefit to society.

Subsidies are a problem when they go out of whack with positive externalities. If something produces a dollar of positive externalities and you’re subsidizing it for more than a dollar, that’s a problem. More practically when the government can’t capture enough benefit through taxes to pay for the subsidy, it’s time to stop. So if the government has a recapture taxation rate of, say 20%, then you need $5 in positive externalities to pay for $1 of subsidies.

The higher the taxation rate, then, the more subsidies are possible, not just because the government has more money, but because they become economically viable for the government to pursue.

This doesn’t apply to negative externalities, mind you. There is no reason not to tax a company for the full value of its negative externalities, not just a percentage of them, unless it is also producing positive externalities you want to capture. Still, as a matter of simplicity, it is probably better to tax for the full value, then subsidize, so you know what the value of each is.

This probably strikes a lot of people as messing with the free market. And it can be – but done properly it’s actually the opposite. It makes markets more efficient by making them price things properly. A market which doesn’t price in the cost of pollution isn’t operating with all the facts and is thus underpricing whatever it produces. Likewise people who produce a positive externality the value of which they can’t capture deserve to be compensated for making society, literally, richer. If they aren’t compensated for it, they’ll stop doing it.


Originally posted Nov 10, 2007.


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American Exceptionalism: What Works Elsewhere Won’t Work In America

So, an acquaintance just told me that what’s wrong with US healthcare is so unique and complicated that no simple solution would work, and that if a simple solution (like copying another country’s system) would work, it would already have been done.

In one sense, of course, he’s correct.  No other country’s system can happen (as opposed to work) in the US because the US system is so corrupted by special interest monies that no such system can pass.  Likewise, every health care system is experiencing inflation faster than GDP growth.

In another sense, this is simply incorrect, since other systems cost 2/3rds what the US does and provide better care while covering everyone. The American belief that what works elsewhere won’t work in America is just BS. To use just one example, before Canada moved to single payer our per capita costs were higher than America’s. When we moved to single payer, they dropped to about 2/3rds of yours.

Yes, other country’s solutions will work. If you bother to try them rather than coming up with specious reasons why they won’t work. Very simple variations on a few themes have worked in EVERY SINGLE country that has tried them. Yet somehow the US is supposed to be this unique flower which is so different that nothing will work.

Yeah, right. American exceptionalism turned perverse. “We can’t learn from other people because we’re so unique, so we’ll just have to continue writhing hopelessly, letting people die and paying too much.”

The simple truth is that most problems aren’t that complicated.  They really, really aren’t.  There is great confusion between the words hard and complicated, as well as between easy and simple.

It’s simple to stop smoking.  Just don’t smoke anymore.  But it’s bloody hard.  It’s simple enough to get in shape—work out.  But it can be very hard.

America is fucked up in extremes that don’t apply to other nations, simply because it is the heart of the Empire, the Hegemonic Power.  It is the place which is most corrupt.  That makes things a lot harder.  But it does not mean that policy solutions which have worked elsewhere wouldn’t work in the US, it means it is hard to get those policy solutions into effect, and once in effect to protect them from regulatory capture (which, as an aside, is why single payer is superior to a Swiss style system for the US, because it is not nearly as subject to regulatory capture.)

But the fundamental point is simpler.  America and Americans are not some special, unique flower, so different from anyone else that whatever has been done in another place or time won’t work in the US or doesn’t apply to the US.

Grow the fuck up.  The belief that you are a special unique flower unlike anyone else is the illness of adolescents, which they are expected to get over by the end of their sophomore year in college, or after a couple backbreaking humiliating years in shitty jobs.

If you won’t cure yourself of this belief, the world will do so for you.  It’s been trying, with things like the financial crisis, and having your ass whipped by insurgents who don’t spent one millionth what you do on the military, but your heads are very thick.  Rest assured, however, that the world will keep trying.  And if it’s necessary to smash your heads in to get through to you, it will.

Ask the Russians about that…

Insanity is Doing the Same Thing and Expecting Different Results: Real Reform Means Reinstituting Glass-Steagall at Full Strength and Breaking Up Financial Conglomerates

Ok, enough already. I’m sick of people talking about modern markets as if they are something wonderful. No, they aren’t. Obama was absolutely right during the election, they completely fell down on their job, not just for the last 8 years, but for most of the last 28 —whenever Republicans were in charge, and a fair bit when Dems were in charge. Ordinary people haven’t had a raise in damn near 30 years. This is success?

I simply, completely, and utterly fail to see what is so wonderful about the process of securitization. Sure, it allows you to create more financial products. Sure, it reduces the cost of capital somewhat. But are we really better off because of securitization? Of course we aren’t. Without securitization this current market meltdown would have been a hell of a lot milder. What securitization does is take the risk and spread it from the people who might be able to understand it and control it (the people actually issuing the mortgages, for example) to a ton of people who could not possibly know the risk even if they wanted to.

Ratings agency reform is not the solution, they completely fell down on the job and even if incentives were changed they are still not in a position to know whether a mortgage from Mr. Smith is legitimate. Are they going to visit the property? Talk to Mr. Smith? Call his employer? Of course not, they can’t. The only people who can are the people who issued the original mortgage.

Nor should risk be transfered much if at all. Risk must stay with the people who issue the mortgage. If they know it’ll be off their books they won’t do proper due diligence, and no one else can do it. At most, risk should be transfered once and must be transfered in whole and understandable form, rather than taking 20 different incomes steams (or more), melding them together, chopping them into tranches and selling them to people who really have no idea what they’re buying, while you’ve booked your profit and washed your hand, so even if you sold them crap, hahahah, it’s their crap now (or so you think.) Risk must be assumed only by people who can understand it and manage it and who are exposed to the consequences of their decisions. (Ability to manage risk, but knowledge that if they don’t they will get hurt.)

Now let’s talk about this idea that the Fed should basically regulate everyone, with the SEC occasionally peeping over it’s shoulder to see whether market manipulation is ocurring. This is necessary because there are, as Obama points out, no longer clear cut differences between banks, insurance companies, investment banks, brokerages and so on. The repeal of Glass-Steagall put an end to those differences. Glass-Steagall, remember was put in place during the Great Depression to stop another Great Depression from occuring. One of the things that people who lived through the 20s believed caused the Great Depression was not having clear cut boundaries between the businesses, again so that risk was divided appropriately and so that fewer companies became “too large to fail”.

But somehow we think we know better than the people who lived through the last Great Depression; the people who lived through the 20’s and the last great market crackup. So we’ve repealed most of Glass-Steagall and allowed everyone to be in everyone else’s pockets, huge financial conglomerates to mushroom into monstrosities, and allowed unregulated “innovative” financial “products” like collateralized debt obligation (CDOs) to grow into such monstrosites that financial markets were huge multiples of the entire real world economy.

Then it all comes crashing down and people claim to be surprised.

Enough, already. Yes, the world is not exactly the same as it was in the 20’s and 30’s, but we didn’t start having these disasters till after Glass-Steagall and other Depression era securities laws started getting repealed. First set in the 80’s, followed by most of the remainder in 99.

It’s time to break up the great financial conglomerates. Force them to cut themselves up and divide back into brokerage houses, investment banks, retail banks, insurance companies and so on. Put them all under the clear control of regulaters. Reinstitute Glass-Steagall, with very mild modernization, and get rid of most complex derivatives, excessive leverage, the carry trade and so on.

Obama was right during the primaries, the philosophy of the past 28 years has been a failure. Why don’t we, why doesn’t he, treat it as so, and re-institute what worked, re-regulate, then slowly modify from there, with complete transparency and strong regulation.

Financial markets exist to serve ordinary Americans and non-financial American businesses. They haven’t been doing that properly. Time to make sure they do.

This is a repost from September 16th 2008.  Very minor changes made to indicate when Obama said it, otherwise it stands the test of time remarkably well—which should tell you that nothing has been done since then.  The greatest economic disaster since the Great Depression, and a year and half later nobody has tried to fix what caused it to happen.  Priorities, priorities…

Stirling Newberry and Ian Welsh on Blog Talk Radio

Stirling and I discussed items ranging from China’s potential currency re-valuation to Greece’s debt, to financial reform, to Britain’s election, and much more.  For those who wonder what Stirling’s been up to, he discusses his latest activities near the end of the clip.

Books which influenced me most

Seems there is a blogger meme going around about naming the books which influenced you the most.  This is a hard one to resist, so I’m not going to, though I know I’m certainly not going to “win” this, as my tastes are not high brow.  While I’ve read Plato and Nietzsche and so on, they were not major influences on my thinking.

Jane Jacobs, “The Economy of Cities”, “Cities and the Wealth of Nations”, “The Death and Life of Great American Cities”. These three books, especially the first two, may have influenced my thoughts on economics more than any others.  Jacobs willingness to throw standard economics overboard and to look at particular details of how the world actually works on a basic building block level, and her mastery not of detail, but of the lessons which can be drawn from detail, made a big impression on me.  She certainly wasn’t right about everything, but she grabbed a few strings, pulled hard, and wasn’t scared by the fact that what came up didn’t match orthodoxy.

Bullfinch’s Mythology.  I spent the better part of grade 4 reading every book on mythology I could find, and this is just a stand in for all of them.  I don’t remember the names of most of them, but to this day I remember the stories: the Golden Fleece, Leda and the Swan, Ragnarok, and so on.  Other youngsters had favorite superheroes or sports stars, I had favorite Gods (Athena, Artemis and Odin).  My twitter icon is Odin with his two ravens, Hugin and Mugin (thought and memory).  I seriously considered naming this blog “the Cassandra Complex”.

Robert Parker’s Spencer Novels, in particular “Early Autumn”. Light easy reads, but Parker had a message about how to live life.  Be good at something (it doesn’t matter what), know what you will do and won’t do, figure out the traits the person you want to be has, and work until you have those traits.  When I was 21, and read all the novels published to that point in a couple weeks, that was a message I needed to hear.

Thomas Kuhn, “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions” The cycle of how paradigms are accepted, filled out and then overthrown enthralled me.  Read this one alongside Randall Collins’ “The Sociology of Philosophies” to get an overview of how intellectual networks form, how they require change, and how intellectuals cluster into networks with “great” intellectuals tending to be major nodes.

Randall Collins, “An Introduction to non-obvious Sociology” and “Interaction Ritual Chains“. Collins meshes together a theory of how symbols are formed and how interaction empowers or disempowers people into a construct which explains important parts of phenomena as diverse as fandom, religion and marriage.  These books and his “Weber: A Skeleton Key” introduced me to conflict theory, to Weber and to and in combination with Kuhn, helped me understand not just how much “reality” is socially constructed (I knew that at a young age) but some of the mechanisms by which it is socially constructed.

“God Stalk”, by P C Hodgell.  Odds are you have neither heard of this book, nor read it, but in my teen years I probably read it over 30 times.  The way the protagonist, Jame, manipulated belief to create and destroy minor gods fascinated me, but so did the fact that there was a reality which could not be manipulated, a bedrock where belief did not matter—it was what it was.  Likewise her struggle to both be honorable and to live the life she wanted struck a cord.  Raised as I was with a belief in noblesse oblige and that to be a man was to have a code of honor, Jame’s dilemma, though written in the high relief of fantasy, seemed all too familiar.

Andrew Vachss “Burke” Novels In my early twenties I was down and out, bloody fingernails away from the street, working at awful, humiliating menial jobs and suffering from the beginnings of an illness which would wind up costing me my health for the remainder of my twenties.  My world was an ugly one: rooming houses, loading docks, screaming bosses, minimum wage and the possibility of a future which offered nothing better.  I would look in the mirror and see myself at 50, older, wrinkled, worn and without hope.  Vachss showed me a world even grittier than mine, which his protagonist and friends managed to live in with integrity: true to themselves.  Certainly I was no martial artist, or clever ex-con, or mechanical genius, but still, the sense of despair, of making the smallest of differences, of the only thing that mattered being having your own rules and sticking to them, spoke to me.  If Burke could do it, if he could use a moral code to wring dignity and meaning out of the world, so could I.

“The Second Sex” by Simone de Beauvoir.  The second time I went to university, I became fascinated by feminism—by the anger, the hatred and the sense of injustice that many of the feminists I met seemed to ball up inside themselves, like eternally burning pitch—black and consuming.  I took a number of courses on feminism, but in none of them was I told to read The Second Sex.  Instead, a couple years later, I stumbled on it, and everything they had been trying to say clicked into place as I read Beauvoir.  The Second Sex summed it all up and said it better than any of the feminists who came after.  Beauvoir was angry, make no mistake, but her anger was kept on tight leash, it did not consume her, but instead served as fuel and illumination.  Since then I’ve rarely read any feminist and not thought “Beauvoir said it better, decades ago.”

The Art of War”, Sun-Tzu and “The Japanese Art of War”, by Tomas Cleary. I read these two books around the same time, and they changed how I thought not just about strategy but about how to think and act.  The principles of formlessness and concentration, the Japanese concept of how one masters an art by mastering the details till one forgets them, and the Buddhist concept of acting without placing a censor before one’s actions all enthralled me.  This lead to a further fascination with Buddhism, Taoism and the different ideas and paths towards, not so much enlightenment, but seeing the world clearly by seeing it without preconceptions.  Later I was to conclude that if you aren’t, indeed, enlightened, the best you can do is to choose the paradigms or glosses you place over the world, knowing that you are doing so, and knowing the advantages and limitations of whatever model you are using.

Barbara Hambly, The Darwath Trilogy. Not great fiction, not even great fantasy, these three books nonetheless made a huge impression on me because Hambly’s theory of knowledge and power resonated with me.  I have come to accept as true her maxim that people, things and even ideas give themselves to you when you love them for themselves, and not for what they can do for you.  I have used this theory when leading teams, when making friends, and when learning new fields, and when I have been able to execute it, it has never failed me.

There are more books which have influenced me, of course.  For much of my life I read at least a book a day, and sometimes more, and even now I read a couple a week and wish I read more (the internet sucks away my time and I sometimes wish it had never been invented.)

Still, these books have all helped make me who I am today.  They have laid the bricks of my intellectual foundation and have taught me about what it means to create a life worth living in a universe which has the meaning we give to it, and nothing more.

What are some books which have influenced you, how have they influenced you, and why?

Enough BS About “I can’t judge because I’ve never been a soldier”

Seriously, Sean-Paul’s my friend, but this sort of thing (which is hardly unique to him) in reference to the video of the killing of reporters and other civilians is waffling of the highest order:

As for the actions of the soldiers? At first, I wasn’t sure how to feel, but I know enough about war to know I know nothing of war, so I reserve judgment. Alas, I can’t help but to think that the rules of engagement were violated here in some fashion. But again, I cannot say with any certainty and so withhold judgment.

Waffle irons have nothing on this.

No, the fact that you haven’t been to war doesn’t mean you can’t judge, and especially the fact that you aren’t a civilian doesn’t mean you can’t judge.   This constant mantra of “oh, the troops aren’t to blame” excuses acts of barbarity.

And as a civilian, it’s in your best interest to not brush aside acts of barbarity by militaries.

Somehow the argument “I don’t understand” never gets applied in reverse.  It gets applied to American soldiers, but not to say, Taliban or al-Qaeda fighters.  They commit atrocities and we have no hesitation in condemning them.

Imagine you did understand.  What possible reason could these soldiers have for their actions which would excuse them?  That they’re under pressure?  So what?  That may make it understandable, it doesn’t make it excusable.  Any more than if I think I understand why some terrorist kills a bunch of civilians, that understanding makes it acceptable.

The knee-jerk “support the troops! Never say anything bad about our boys” stuff is noxious.  A proper functioning military in a civilized society court-martials people who do things like this.

And this is not an isolated incident.  As Siun notes:

At the time the New York Times reported that “the military has paid more than $32 million to Iraqi and Afghan civilians for noncombat-related killings, injuries and property damage, an Army spokeswoman said. That figure does not include condolence payments made at a unit commander’s discretion.” And given that the average payment for a dead adult civilian was $3,000, you begin to get some sense of the scale of devastation we have brought to the people of Iraq and Afghanistan.

You do the math…  And that’s just deaths where they felt they had to pay someone off, where payments are on the record.

This is military policy.  The reason it was covered up is that it’s not an aberation, it’s policy.  As Greenwald notes, this is what the US military does. The rot goes all the way to the top.

And no, “following orders” is not an excuse.

Enough waffling.  What happened in that video was wrong.  What’s even worse is that there’s no reason to believe it was an isolated incident.

New Blogger

Dave Anderson, of the Newshoggers, has agreed to cross-post some of his posts here. I’ve long admired Dave’s writing, and more importantly, his smarts.  He writes articles regularly I wish I’d written, and his approach to and understanding of warfare is very close to my own.  He also cuts fine when it comes to domestic issues, especially local economic issues.

Of course, the Newshoggers are worth reading (as are all blogs on the blogroll), but if you don’t spend time over there, Dave will be spending some time here.

Obligatory cautionary note on the employment #’s

I’ve been predicting a spring hiring resurgence for some time, so the March figure of 162,000 new jobs isn’t a surprise.  However, amidst all the hoopla I feel it is incumbent to point out that you need about 140,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth.

This isn’t a good job’s report.  It’s just not a lousy one.  It’s only slightly better than even.  We need to see regular months over 400,000 before this economy will be good.

In the last recovery, the majority of gains went to corporate profits rather than wages.  This will be even more true this time around.

As recoveries go this one is going to feel like landing in a pool of Dettol after skidding down a sandpaper slide.

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