Month: May 2010

Off for a bit

On May 7, 2010

I’m moving Sunday, and my internet is moving Saturday, so I may or may not be online much for a day or two or three, depending on how the migration goes and if there are any problems. See you all on the other side.

Greek Mistakes, European Misery and the Coming Decade of Suck

By Ian Welsh

On May 7, 2010

Comments

1) killing bankers isn’t what’s needed. The people who need to be scared are their own rich, and their own politicians, who voted for the cram down instead of deciding to end tax evasion, primarily by the rich, and which by itself is enough to close the gap and avoid austerity measures.

2) Voting in right wing governments. You get what you vote for.

When you refuse to tax the rich, the only other option is to soak the middle class and the poor.

Meanwhile the Brits have voted for cuts, cuts, cuts. They too are about to get what they asked for. Austerity.

This contagion is going to spread, because Europe is fundamentally in the same mode as the US: spare the rich, cram down the middle class. The lesson taken by the elites from the crisis was that the rich must be appeased at all costs, because if they aren’t, they will go on strike, and crash the world economy.

What happened yesterday on the stock market proves it–nearly a 1,000 points off the DOW in seconds. The stock markets are no longer free markets, their movements are controlled by a relatively small number of actors with very deep pockets, who can make them go up or down whenever they choose.

There was an opportunity to break the power of these folks—to wipe them out, but it required calling their bluff, not caving to them. That opportunity has now passed. While the world economy remains very fragile and could go into a tailspin any time if anything goes wrong, best guess is we have another really lousy recovery and economic cycle to look forward to, if austerity measures don’t crash it out entirely. Over 80% of any gains will go to corporate profits, virtually nothing to ordinary citizens, and we’ll have another lost decade in which for virtually everyone the economy sucks.

There are solutions, but it’s clear that the elites in most countries aren’t willing to do anything about it, and frankly the population keeps voting for right wing governments (whether called that or not), so they’re getting what they vote for. (Say what you will, Obama was the most right wing of the major Democratic candidates.)

So, get ready for another era during which the deep liquidity, the hot money, is completely catered to—even more than it was in the last era. And get ready for an era in which, to paraphrase George Bush “who cares what you think? is the unofficial motto of government when dealing with ordinary people.

The Lack of Netroots Enthusiasm for Progressive Candidates in Primaries

By Ian Welsh

On May 6, 2010

Comments

An acquaintance noted that compared to prior years, Netroots progressives have not gotten behind progressive challengers in primaries this year with any enthusiasm.

All I can say is that while various individuals may sound like good candidates, unfortunately, the netroots is depressed overall about the utility of primaries and elections, and that part which isn’t depressed is busy pushing Obama’s initiatives and defending Obama, not pushing candidates the Obama machine isn’t behind.

This is unfair to the good candidates, no doubt, but it is understandable. Also, for most of a year, everyone’s energy was completely sucked into the never-ending health care debate, and many progressives regarded how it ended up as a demoralizing defeat, a defeat made worse by the fact that it was a betrayal from what many thought was “our own side”.

There’s a massive trust issue. Many readers have a hard time believing in candidates any more, especially after the way so many “progressive heroes” have repeatedly caved in the last year.

Again, that’s probably unfair, but when even Dennis Kucinich can’t be counted on to stand up and vote the way he said he would, against a bill that he himself says is bad, and when every person who said “no public option means a vote against”, caved, well, sorry, there’s an enthusiasm gap on our side.

Betrayal has consequences. New candidates may not have betrayed anyone, but the people whose footsteps they’re following in did.

I am unsure how to fix this. It seems virtually no one in DC on the Progressive side can be trusted to stand up to heavy pressure (or perhaps to mean what they say, not sure which it was). Don’t know why, but it is the case.

And, sadly, it has consequences for good people.

Some folks are trying to fix this by saying “look at all the good things Obama and this Congress have done” or “really, the Health Care bill is still better than nothing”, but the hard core progressives, who are a significant chunk the people who give, who volunteer and who are willing to be massively enthusiastic, well, they aren’t buying it. They were promised better on any number of issues (bank reform, healthcare, gay rights, abortion, etc…) and having been repeatedly betrayed (as they see it, and I agree) they find it hard to care.

So, honestly, if people want the progressive money and enthusiasm machine revved back up, I suggest they find a way to get some high profile wins, or they go down really visibly swinging on some issue in a way that doesn’t look like Kabuki.

A pity, as I say, but there it is. Failure to come through on promises made makes people not trust future promises, even by new candidates.

Some might say that this is rational, others might say that it constitutes giving up and as such is the wrong thing to do.

But if progressive candidates—if progressive politicians in DC or who want to go to DC, want money and volunteer time and enthusiasm it’s really up to them to do something which makes netroots progressives believe in them again.

What is Obama?

By Ian Welsh

On May 4, 2010

Comments

A man who takes care of financial and other large corporate interests first and foremost, ordinary Americans second.
A man who believes that the Fed doesn’t need to be audited, because they did such a swell job (and because that’s where much of the real bailouts of the financial firms are stashed)
A man who said he believed in net neutrality but whose FCC declines to reclassify broadband so that it can regulate it.
A man who did not stop the Bush-era raids on Hispanics even though he could stop the raids tomorrow.
A man who did not fulfill his promises on gay rights, including on Don’t Ask, Don’t, Tell, even though he could stop DADT tomorrow with an executive order.
A man who has killed more people with drones since he took power than Bush did in his entire reign.
A Nobel Peace Laureate who has stated that he retains the right to nuke Iran if Iran responds to an Israeli attack with conventional means (don’t fight back while our buddy beats you bloody, or it’ll be so much the worse for you.)
A Nobel Peace Laureate who expanded the war in Afghanistan.
A man who is prosecuting whistle blowers that even the Bush administration declined to prosecute.
A man who believes that the President has the right to assassinate any American outside the country without any trial at his sole say-so.
A man who believes the President has the right to lock people up without trial
A man who believes that “confessions” obtained by torture should be admissable in court.
A man who believes that the accused does not have the right to see the evidence against him, or to face his accusers.
A man who forced Americans to buy health insurance from private insurers without a public option or significant price controls.
A man who sold out womens abortion rights to pass a health care bill which was essentially identical to a 1990’s Republican plan.
A man who wants to cut Social Security and Medicare.
a man who supports expanding charter schools despite the fact that studies show they produce worse results than public schools

And much more. Add your own in comments…

Top Marginal Tax Rates

By Ian Welsh

On May 2, 2010

Comments

Because there seems to be some confusion, here’s a chart of the top marginal income tax rates. *

Top Marginal income tax rates

You’ll notice that as the rate has dropped, the economy has worked worse and worse for ordinary people. Correlation (though I believe strongly in causation in this case) but also it shows that high marginal progressive tax rates do not hurt the economy, contrary to what some think.

(*35% is still the top rate as of this writing).