The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: July 2010

Actually Afghanistan is a war of choice

Michael Steele’s comments on Afghanistan remind me of my favorite definition of a gaffe: “saying the truth in the worst way possible.”

To whit, Steele said that Afghanistan is a war of Obama’s choosing, and that everyone who’s occupied Afghanistan has come to grief over it.  Now one can quibble a bit over the details of who came to grief and who didn’t, but basically he’s right.  Afghanistan went badly for the Russians and the British, most recently.  There’s a reason Afghanistan is called the “graveyard of Empires” and if the US isn’t careful it’ll be the graveyard of the US empire.

Likewise, yes, this is a war of choice for Obama.  He could have done his review, said “hey, there are almost no al-Q’aeda fighters in Afghanistan anymore, so we won, let’s go home.”  He could have said “fighting in Afghanistan is seriously destabilizing Pakistan, which is far more important than Afghanistan, so let’s go home.”  He could have said “yes, if we leave, some al-Q’aeda camps might spring up but we can always bomb them and anyway there are plenty of failed states where al-Q’aeda can set up camps and we can’t occupy all of them.”

The point is that continuing in Afghanistan was a choice.  Obama could have chosen otherwise.  Not being in Afghanistan will not create an existential threat to the US.

So yeah, Steele was right.  Of course, being the RNC chairman, Steele isn’t allowed to say things that make sense and contradict Republican warmongering.

Now here’s a truth that Steele didn’t tell.  Obama has to stay in Afghanistan because war spending is one of the only reliable forms of stimulus he has.  The economy is in bad shape, and it needs that stimulus.  Since he can’t get a new large stimulus through Congress that means he MUST keep the Afghan war going if he doesn’t want an economic disaster, which would then lead to an electoral disaster.

This is the sad truth of America: the only acceptable form of Keynesian spending is military Keynesianism. Instead of hiring tens of thousands of teachers, building a high speed rail network across the country, refitting every building to be energy efficient and doing a massive solar and wind build-out to reduce dependence on oil, well, the US would rather turn Afghans and Pakistanis into a fine red mist.

That fine red mist is what’s keeping the American economy from going under entirely.  And so, even if it’s the wrong thing to do, even if it’s the graveyard of America’s Empire, the war will continue.

Happy Canada Day

canadian-flagFor all its problems, this remains a good country to live in.  It’s beautiful, it’s big, and the social safety net, while showing some wear and tear, is still there.  As with most of the world, there’s been a right wing swing, but it’s been kept relatively in check by the simple fact that the majority of Canadians aren’t right wing.

The world is dividing into countries with trade surpluses and those without.  Canada tends to run a positive balance of trade and when we don’t, it isn’t hugely negative.  We have oil, water and still have plenty of arable land.  On the downside, we’re hugely overexposed to the US, but as long as the US still has seigniorage, this will remain an advantage, and when the US loses it, at least the Chinese will still need resources (and the North America auto industry is going away anyway.)

Canada’s also one of the most tolerant countries in the world with truly multi-ethnic cities which actually work.

There are going to be huge challenges going forward, many of them caused by the fact that our form of government tends to empower geographically clumped minorities (whether in Alberta or Quebec) and disempower groups which are more geographically widespread.  The US remains a significant threat which Canadians aren’t willing to face (when water and oil really start running out, anyone who thinks Americans won’t consider taking what they want is delusional) and the hollowing out of industrial capacity and the over-reliance on commodities is likewise an issue.

Nonetheless, all countries have problems, and overall, I’d rather have Canada’s than those of most other nations.

We’ll see how we handle them going forward.

In the meantime, happy Canada Day.

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