The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: November 2016 Page 2 of 4

If Trump Wasn’t Right that DC Elites are Fuckups, Trump Wouldn’t Be President-elect

There are three themes emerging since Trump won the election:

(1) His embrace of people with rather unpleasant views. That’s being covered plenty by others, so let’s concentrate on the other two.

(2) Loyalty and a disorganized transition. Some folks are beginning to understand how much loyalty matters to Trump. Many of his early appointments and advisors are easy to understand in those terms. Kushner, his son-in-law, was always there for him. Bannon was there during the nastiest of it (i.e., the tape fiasco). He didn’t back down, he didn’t cavil. He doubled down on supporting Trump. Sessions was loyal all the way through. Flynn was loyal all the way through, even when other retired generals suggested he shut it.

Ex-Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney once said, “You dances with them that brought you.” Trump is dancing with people who were loyal through the worst of it.

This is not unreasonable. He’s going to be under constant attack, and he needs people he can trust. I may not like the politics of some of these people, but they did prove they could be trusted to handle the absolute worst and not abandon Trump.

(3) All sorts of wailing about the notion that Trump and Putin talked before Trump talked to State and Defense, or how he met with Japanese PM Abe without going through State.

So?

This sort of stuff shows clearly that the usual suspects don’t get it. Trump ran as an actual outsider, despite his wealth. He said, “These people are fuckups. All the people who run the country are incompetent.”

So, people wailing that the Pentagon thinks Trump cozying up to Russia is wrong are missing the point. Trump ran on the premise that we should be friends with Russia. He proposed that people who think we should be enemies with Russia are wrong.

I agree with him, as it happens, but that’s irrelevant. He ran against the prevailing foreign policy consensus on Russia and he won.

Trump doesn’t think that State or Defense or whoever have been giving the right advice or doing the right thing. He thinks they have group-think, and this group-think’s conclusions are incorrect, and he ran against them.

Trump is doing what he said he would do. He has a mandate for being buddies with Putin. You may not like it (I do), but who gives a damn. He ran on it.

He ran on cutting DC elites out of decision-making, because they’ve run the country into the ground (yes, yes they have).

I make no claims that all of this mess isn’t partially incompetence. The team clearly did not have a good transition plan read (or much of one at all).

But hey, he fired the person who didn’t have a transition plan ready. That was Christie’s job, Christie did not do it. People are focusing on this as Kushner ousting Christie (because Christie prosecuted his father) and that’s part of it, but Kushner wouldn’t have been able to stop Trump giving him the job in the first place: He could only get rid of Christie after Christie completely screwed up the job.

There are a lot of issues about which I don’t agree with Trump, but whether you like it or not (and no, the popular vote count doesn’t change this) he’s actually running his transition in line with his campaign promises, in line with his mandate.

As for Kushner, we better hope he keeps winning his intra-Trump battles, because he’s one of the only powerful figures in the administration who doesn’t want to, say, deport Muslims.

Until people wrap their heads around why so many people (in the right places) voted for Trump, they aren’t going to be able to predict his moves or fight him properly.

Trump had a critique of how the country is run. His critique was essentially correct (I don’t agree with many of his solutions). He won on that critique, and so far he is doing what someone in his position should do: He is acting in accordance with what he said he’d do on the campaign trail.

What people are whining about, so far, are actual signs of integrity on Trump’s part. Integrity for a cause many disagree with, but integrity, nonetheless.

Like all candidates, even the best and most honest, Trump won’t fulfill all his promises. But he is acting in line with his meta-narrative: “DC is broken; those people don’t know how to run the country.”

Whether he can run the country is another matter, but it’s clear that DC elites can’t, because they’ve fucked it up for four decades, which culminated in a Trump presidency.

If Trump wasn’t right that DC elites are fuckups, Trump wouldn’t be President-elect.


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How Jefferson and Hamilton Designed the Republic for Labor

(This article is by Tony Wikrent)

What is our system of government supposed to be? A republic. But a republic is so ill-defined that even John Adams famously wrote “the word republic, as it is used, may signify anything, everything, or nothing.”

According to historian Gordon Wood:

The sacrifice of individual interests to the greater good of the whole formed the essence of republicanism and comprehended for Americans the idealistic goal of their Revolution…. To eighteenth-century American and European radicals alike, living in a world of monarchies, it seemed only too obvious that the great deficiency of existing governments was precisely their sacrificing of the public good to the private greed of small ruling groups. [1]

Just as important: Are there principles and policies of political economy that are supposed to distinguish a republic from other forms of government, i.e., monarchies, oligarchies, plutocracies, dictatorships, etc.?

Since it became clear that President Obama was unwilling to directly confront the power of Wall Street, I have read deeply trying to answer these questions for myself.

Contrary to what many on the left believe, the US Constitution is NOT solely designed to protect the rich. Our system of government definitely has been twisted to that end, but I do not believe that was the intent of Hamilton, the founder most responsible for laying the foundation of the US economy. (And remember, Washington used Treasury Secretary Hamilton basically as a prime minister, and agreed with or acceded to literally all of Hamilton’s economic beliefs and policies. This was in no small part a function of their shared experience at the pinnacle of American military command during the Revolutionary War, when they both identified Britain’s major strategic advantage to be Britain’s ability to raise funds and float debt through its financial system.)

Culturally, the most important aspect of a republic is supposed to be equality, especially economic equality. This is of course contrary to the view that the government was set up solely to protect property and the accumulation thereof. It was not – at least, not by Hamilton.

Economic equality is basic to a republic because, the idea was, no person can be fully independent and be a good citizen if their livelihood depends to some extent or other on another person’s largess, benevolence, or tolerance. This was the basis of the fight between the Hamiltonians and the Jeffersonians. Jefferson believed that only farmers who owned their own land were independent enough to honestly exercise the duties of citizenship. Jefferson wanted to delay the advent of industrialization and subservient factory labor as long as possible. This is why Jefferson acceded to the Louisiana Purchase, which he would otherwise have opposed on the grounds that the federal government has no express power to acquire such territory. [2] With the Louisiana Purchase, yeoman squeezed out of the established eastern seaboard would be able to cross the mountains, and buy, steal, or somehow take the land of the Native Americans and set themselves up as independent farmers.

Hamilton, by contrast, understood that the economy could not be frozen in time and remain entirely agrarian. Industrialization HAD to not only proceed, but be encouraged [3], for the US to have any chance of resisting the intrigues and hostility of the European powers – which remained committed to eradicating the American experiment in self-government until the US Civil War. (France and Spain landed troops in Mexico and Caribbean at the beginning of the war; the Mexican republic was eliminated and Maximilian, younger brother of Austrian emperor Francis Joseph I, was installed as puppet emperor; and the British were preparing to land troops in Canada in 1862, but were deterred by the pro-US street fighting in London and elsewhere which was led by Garibaldi’s revolutionaries.)

Hamilton’s great insight was that economic development depended entirely on improving the productive powers of labor. This meant the development of science and technology, and the spread of machinery to replace muscle power. The correct view of Hamilton must be precise: It was not that Hamilton sought to encourage and protect wealth, but to encourage and protect the CREATION of wealth. (Read Section II, Subsection 2, “As to an extension of the use of Machinery…” in Hamilton’s December 1791 Report to Congress on the Subject of Manufactures, if you want something to read today.)

This is where Marxist analysis fails catastrophically. Yes, much of economic history is that of elites accumulating wealth through exploitation, fraud, and violence. BUT: How was that wealth, which is stolen, created in the first place? Thorstein Veblen, and his discussions of industrial organization versus business organization, are far more useful in understanding the COMPLETE economic story, not just the exploitation side of it. I believe that once you understand this, you can understand why Elon Musk is much more useful to society than Peter Thiel. Musk and Thiel are both rich: Should we therefore oppose and denigrate both because they are rich, and we dislike our system of government, which has been mutated and diminished in order to protect the rich? No. I admire Musk because he has used his PayPal lode to create new wealth (which takes the corporate forms of Tesla, SpaceX, and Solar City), while Thiel has used his PayPal lode to fund libertarian ideas which are fundamentally hostile to what America is supposed to be. In Veblen’s analysis, Musk is an industrialist, while Thiel is merely a businessman.

In the nineteenth century, it was generally understood that the system established by Hamilton was in opposition to the “classical economics” of Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Thomas Malthus, and the other apologists for the death and destruction wrought on entire countries by the British East India Co. and the British empire. In the 1820s, Henry Clay coined the term “American system” to distinguish it from the British system. Michael Hudson has pointed out that, in addition to these two systems of political economy, a third was developed in the nineteenth century: Marxism. [4]

It is easy to be confused by American history, because at the same time that the American system was being built and practiced, the British system was competing with it for control of domestic economy and polity. To the extent that people today mistakenly believe that the American economy was founded on the ideas of Adam Smith — it most emphatically was not, as Hamilton explicitly rejected the ideas of Smith — the British system is winning. Michael Hudson has written at least two excellent overviews of this fight within the US between the American and British systems. [5] For now, the simplified version is that the British system was dominant in the slave South, and fought for free trade in opposition to the American system’s protective tariffs.

Because Hamilton’s American system sees economic strength flowing from increases in the productive power of labor, labor naturally has a favored place in the system. Or, at least, it is not ignored and even denigrated as it is in the British system, which likes to focus more on such things as monetary aggregates, and physical hoardings of “wealth” such as gold or land. What made the New Deal work (and it should be understood that the GI Bill was one of the most important legal enactments of the New Deal, along with financial regulation and Social Security) was that it allowed labor to achieve parity with, if not superiority over, capital, represented by the financial system.

The development of the Eurodollar market in the 1960s allowed US banks to begin sidestepping New Deal regulations. This was augmented, and eventually dominated, by increasing flows of hot money from illegal narcotics and organized crime. In 1976, the pound sterling crisis allowed US financial interests, acting through the International Monetary Fund, to impose economic austerity on Britain, terminating the Labor Party’s policy focus on full employment. In the US, this shift in policy priority from full employment was imposed by the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, who  pushed “interest rates up to record highs in order to break inflation and undermine the wage militancy of American workers…. This restoration of class power, underpinning the neoliberal political project, relied upon high interest rates, recession and market liberalization.” [6]

The slow destruction of the Democratic Party since the Atari Democrats (see Matt Stoller’s recent article on “How Democrats Killed Their Populist Soul”) and then Bill Clinton, is because Democratic Party elites have come to accept the neo-liberal fantasy that finance is more important than labor.


Notes

[1] The Creation of the American Republic, 1776-1787, by Gordon S. Wood, University of North Carolina Press, Chapel Hill, NC, 1969, page 53.

In February 1866, when Massachusetts Senator Charles Sumner delivered an epic speech urging the passage of the Equal Rights Amendment, his direct observations on republicanism covered twelve pages (pages 176 to 188). Sumner’s is as good a summary of what a republic is supposed to be as any you are going to find. It consists of carefully selected quotes from many of the founding fathers. In the 1850s, Senator Sumner was such a persistent and powerful critic of Southern slave holders that in May 1856, South Carolina Congressman Preston Brooks nearly killed Sumner on the floor of the Senate by beating him over the head with a cane. Brooks continued to beat Sumner even after Sumner had lost consciousness. Other Senators were prevented from stopping the attack by Virginia Representative Henry A. Edmundson and South Carolina Representative Laurence Keitt, who brandished a pistol. Sumner required three years to recover before he could return to his Senate seat, and suffered chronic, debilitating pain for the rest of his life. Two weeks after the attack, Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote: “I do not see how a barbarous community and a civilized community can constitute one state. I think we must get rid of slavery, or we must get rid of freedom.”

[2] Jefferson’s original instructions to his envoys to Paris contained no mention whatsoever of acquiring land for the United States, because their mission was to secure for Americans the right of free passage down the Mississippi River. It was the French who proposed the idea to sell the territory, motivated by the need to raise monies for their war with England.

[3] In one of the most remarkable passages in Hamilton’s December 1791 Report to Congress on the Subject of Manufactures, Section VII, Hamilton writes that “the apprehension of failing in new attempts” requires the government to take an active role in promoting and supporting the attempts of private entrepreneurs at “overcoming the obstacles inseparable from first experiments.”

[4] Michael Hudson on the American School of Political Economy

[5] Hudson, America’s Protectionist Takeoff 1815-1914: The Neglected American School of Political Economy, ISLET, 2010, which I quote extensively in HAWB 1791 – Alexander Hamilton rejected Adam Smith. Also by Hudson: Simon Patten on Public Infrastructure and Economic Rent Capture. Another very useful book is James L. Huston, Securing the Fruits of Labor: The American Concept of Wealth Distribution, 1765-1900, Louisiana State University Press, 1998.

[6] Jeremy Green, American Power and the Making of British Capitalism, 04 June, 2013. Green is referring to Sam Gindin and Leo Panitch, The Making of Global Capitalism: The Political Economy of American Empire, Verso, 2012.

Living in the Truth or Dying in Lies

One of the main reasons we are here, today, where we are, is that people confused their fears, their loyalties, their greed, and their partisan tribal identifications, for truth.

The world does not care if you didn’t (or don’t) believe in climate change. Carbon and methane have specific effects on the atmosphere, and your opinion that they don’t is as relevant as that of a flat earther’s about the rotation of the sun around the Earth–it has real world consequences, to be sure, but is simply wrong.

Wrong.

It is nice that you don’t think that racism and racists get stronger when times are bad, and that people who don’t see a pay raise in 40 years are likely to turn to nasty politics, and it is even important that you think so, since your sheer stupidity and blindness makes it harder to stop, but you are wrong. You are, in fact, part of the problem, because problems happen and we need to be able to fix them, and you and your type are making it harder to do anything by muddying the water.

The inability to separate partisanship from a clear understanding of the world is at the heart of why we are where we are today. Clear consequences of action and non-action are dismissed wholesale until it is too late to do anything about it.

Yeah, we’ve got sort of a consensus on climate change, but, it’s basically too late, and hey, even with a consensus we aren’t doing even close to enough. It is laughable to me that people are running around saying, “The sky is falling! The sky is falling!” because Trump was elected and he says he doesn’t believe in global warming. Obama “believes” in it and made it worse.

“Ooooh, he might pull out of the Paris accords.” You mean the accords that virtually no one is fulfilling their pledges to already?

Then there is this: “Trump promises to deport between two and three million immigrants!”

You mean, about the same amount as Obama did (2.4 million)?

Meanwhile, we have people screaming about Russia backing an international neo-fascist movement.

Oh? Well, they’ve supported some, yes. But who supported the neo-Nazis in the Ukraine until they got into power? Yes, that would be the US.

The fact is that elites are quite happy to do business with neo-Nazis. It is people like Corbyn they are scared of. Fascists get along great with corporations: The Nazis slashed wages, locked up union organizers, and gutted workers rights–even before they went to slavery (which the US already has, in its prisons).

The warnings on climate change and about the rise of the racist right go as far back as the 80s, in my memory. Why? Because the evidence was already there for people to see. By the late 80s, we could see that the inequality data was going in a radically bad direction, for example, and people were already saying, “This will lead to the rise of bad people, like fascists.”

This was not hard to predict. It was obvious. You did not need to be some sort of special genius, you just had to ask yourself “What happened last time?”

What you had to be “special” to do was to ignore it, to hand wave it away, to spend your life (and many, many lives were dedicated to the project) saying, “Oh, no, inequality is no big deal. They aren’t really poor, they have TVs!”

Every person who did that is culpable in what is coming down the line, just as everyone who cut a check for climate denials (usually to protect their own business, a.k.a. oil) is complicit in mass murder.

Social science is inexact, but there are some parts of social science that are pretty close to physics.

Let me give you two.

People who are treated badly become bad people. (As a group. Yes, you are a special flower and it didn’t happen to you, OR if you were one of them, you would be the exception. You’re special. I know.)

People are unhappy or happy with leadership based on whether they perceive things as getting better or getting worse. It is not based on absolute standards, it is based on what they expect the future to be like.

Right after the Versailles treaty, Keynes was able to predict the gross outlines of history right through to World War II. He said, “Well if you do this to the Germans, they aren’t going to put up with it forever, and it will enable the rise of really nasty people.”

You had to be a special sort of idiot, or a partisan fool, not to see it coming once someone like Keynes had explained it to you (and many others knew it as well).

If you will not live in something fairly close to reality, reality will clock you upside the head for it eventually. As individuals, we may dodge this, we often do, which is why individuals often live in denial.

As societies, no. The bill is always paid, and it is always paid in full. It’s just usually not paid by the people who wrote the checks based on other people’s bodies. Which is why, if you aren’t powerful (and you probably aren’t), you can’t afford to live in fantasy-land.

It is now too late to stop the rise of the nasty right. It was, in fact, too late in 2009 when Obama completely decided to continue the bail out of the rich. That was the last exit-ramp. But oh, people love Obama. He was the last person with the ability to stop this, and he made an affirmative choice to make sure it would happen.

And for many people, he’s a great man, a hero. Especially to people on the left, who, if the nasty right gets out of control, are the ones who are going to die and be tortured and raped and imprisoned.

This is what Americans have been voting for, and that includes Democrats, for over 40 years. This wasn’t just a few elites. No, as a group, Americans kept taking actions to make it happen. (Yes, you may be an exception, but among voters, you are an exception.)

And so what has happened, has happened. Americans let those in the rustbelt rot. They have rebelled, and you now have Trump. Democrats voted for Clinton (yes, the DNC had its thumbs on the scale, but all evidence I’ve seen is that registered Dems really did prefer Clinton to the man who was against Iraq).

Clinton lost (she would have been terrible too).

And here you are. And meanwhile, climate change is roaring down the pike, and while Trump may be worse, no, Clinton wouldn’t have done enough to stop it. No reason to bother, her donors don’t want real regulation, and heck, she’ll be dead, and her daughter can live somewhere it won’t effect her much.

Consequences are paid. Your opinion that they aren’t paid is irrelevant, and if you don’t have power, the check is being written on your body and those of the people you claim to care about.


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If Trump Is a Nazi

Okay, Trump has appointed Bannon his chief strategist. Bannon is a straight up white supremacist. This is bad.

I am hearing screams of Nazi and fascism. I am hearing a lot of such screams.

Let’s cut to the chase. If Trump is a Nazi he will do very bad things. Let’s get specific.

Will he be as bad as a fairly standard nasty dictator: Pinochet?

  • Train dogs to rape women? Rape as a policy (more than it already is in the US, which, umm, it is.)
  • Mass graves?
  • Death squads striking at night either with government sanction or with government looking aside (this is, actually, the first thing to look for. If you start seeing it, GET OUT. GET OUT NOW.) But it happens in plenty of governments which aren’t Nazi or fascist.

Will he be worse?

  • Actual concentration camps (remember, Obama already locks up illegals in camps for long periods without meaningful trial.)

I’ve heard people say things like “false flag attacks,” but those happen under non-fascist regimes.

If you think Trump is a Nazi, I sincerely encourage you to set up markers of Nazi (or fascist)-dom, so you can track the success of your prediction.

And I sincerely suggest you make one of them the red line where you flee the goddamn country. As a friend of mine wrote the other day, his grandmother, when she fled Hitler in the 30s, was mocked by her relatives. Every single one of them died under Hitler.

I don’t think Trump is Hitler, though he’s got some damn unpleasant people in his administration.

But if he is, you’d better know when you’re going to cut and run, or, alternatively, pick up a gun.

I note, also, that if he isn’t, all the people screaming are doing everyone a great disservice, because when the real thing comes, having been falsely warned before, they won’t believe it.


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Taking Care of Yourself in the Time of Trump

I’m seeing a lot of people scared, angry or full of despair over Trump’s election, even now, five days later. If that’s you, please watch this (it’s about 12 minutes).


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The Imperial Trump Court

Trump is going to rule as emperor, not president.

By this I do not mean that he’s going to overthrow democracy and become president for life; I regard that as very unlikely.

What I mean is that Trump isn’t interested most of what’s involved in running the Presidency. Even when he has definite ideas, he generally isn’t interested in the details.

So personnel will matter even more than it does in normal administrations. Who has Trump’s ear, and when, will matter a great deal. Trump is very persuadable. Issues may well go back and forth for quite a while until someone gets Trump to make a firm decision.

There will be fiefs. Given that Pence was given the transition, pushing aside Christie, he appears to be on the fast track to be the most important person after Trump, and in day-to-day operations probably more important. He may well be even more powerful than Cheney was in the Bush administration.

Trump has multiple factions in his government. Thiel is a libertarian and dubious about women, but he’s not a racist. Bannon is a racist. Pence’s main concern is crushing women into the dirt, and Trump will allow some of that, but his wife and daughter have a lot of influence on him and they’ll try to mitigate that. Remember that Trump has praised Planned Parenthood in the past.

There are issues Trump has made his own, and there are issues about which he doesn’t care too much. The wall will get built, even if parts of it are a fence. At least one trade deal will get rewritten (Canada has already said they’re willing to reopen NAFTA). Immigrants will be expelled. (If you’re worried about the two to three million, you should be. Just remember, Obama expelled 2.4 million. He just did it relatively quietly.) ISIS will be bombed to smithereens. Nice will be made with Russia–to some extent.

But beyond that, much is in the air, and much will depend on WHO gets Trump’s ear. Even within settled policy, details matter, and Trump is not going to handle the details (Bill Clinton was infamous for actually being on top of details. Hillary would have been the same way, it’s not a given the President hand-waves them.) Thus, who is given the job of executing policy will matter a great deal.

This is going to be a courtier’s administration. It is going to be an administration of fiefs and fierce internal infighting, both below the Emperor’s notice and for his notice. Who wins those fights will matter, a lot.

So far, outside his family, we have Pence managing the transition (woman-hating, Job ). We have Bannon as his chief strategist (white supremacy and ministry of propaganda Job #’s 1 and 2), and we have Priebus as his chief of staff (career Republican apparatchnik).

Keep an eye on the people, and the appointments, BUT don’t count out the family. What they think (and by all accounts Ivanka is the toughest of the children), will matter a lot. Melania might have outsize influence, for all we know: Nancy Reagan wound up more important than Reagan himself when Reagan’s Alzheimer’s took its toll, and was vastly influential even before that.

Trump will make the big announcements. He’ll insist on cutting the deals (at least the final cut) with other leaders. He’ll have a few things he wants done, but beyond that, it’ll be those around him who matter.


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This Is a Constitutional Crisis

(This piece is by Stirling Newberry)

This is a constitutional crisis. However, instead of the crisis arising all at once, for all tiers of society, some tiers have gotten what they need–without the others getting what they need.

The banking system collapsed in 2008, but is doing fine now. This is because the banking sector, along with those who depend on it, figured out what banking’s basic problem was in 1929-1932, but they have no concern with the other parts of the system. If your wealth depends on not having a gold standard, all well and good. But there were other problems in 1929-1932 that they didn’t bother solving. This is one of them.

In 1932, there were other problems besides the banking system imploding. For example, child labor was an issue. What happened in that time is that one man understood there were solutions and a check upon the system which had to be enacted together. He also knew that certain solutions would not be made palatable until their maw wrapped around the country.

This man’s name was Franklin Delano Roosevelt. He knew, for example, that the United States would have to go to war, but he also knew that such a step would not be palatable until much later. On the other hand, there were problems that had to be moved against immediately, and there were also problems–however extreme they might have been–which had to wait for the public to view them.

So many things were done at the last minute, many other things were put off for a generation. A few things were done which were abominable even by the standards of the time, such as the imprisonment of people who were of Japanese descent during World War II. In other words, there was no guarantee that everything would be done correctly, only that enough things were done in time. The check was that when it counted, enough people would do the right thing.

In 2012, we were again in a crisis, but the well-off thought that they had a solution, which did not involve handing so much power over to the public. Their solution was inadequate, but they did not see it in their equations. Instead they waited for the chance to assume power with almost no limit. The result is a Trump Presidency. In this presidency, certain, small things can be done for a class that has been ignored, but in the larger sense it is ultra conservative: Money will rule everything.

The problem they didn’t factor into their equation was with healthcare, and what will happen to people who do not have it. States can do things, but enough states rely upon the federal government–because, in fact, those state are poor. The old system understood this, so the rich states formed a bargain with the poor states: If the poor would put up some money, the federal government would put up the rest. While this was a burden to the rich states, they were making enough money that they could afford it. This distribution from rich to poor had advantages for both; the rich states would be caught in a series of inflationary cycles, while the poor states were trapped in disinflation.

Now in 2016, the rich want more. This is because the rich are not really the creative class, though they assume they are, and they need more money to enrich themselves. Health care is something that everyone needs eventually, the only question is when. Since they have looted the federal government tax system, the rich are in a quandary: They another system to bankrupt. Presently, there are only a few. One is healthcare. The other is the environment. Both of these will not last, but that is not the problem of the wealthy–they are fixed on the now and the short term.

So the real problem is that the liberal party (the Democrats) has taken their eyes off the ball. Obama was too concerned about being rich to think about the consequences, and the Clintons were very much in the same mold. They reversed the old system’s bargain: Instead of giving a great mass of the people a chance to make them selves rich, and then pocketing the difference for themselves (and remember, the great heroes of liberalism were also very rich by the end of their terms–they enriched themselves and gave just enough, or what they assumed was just enough, to be poor).

The problem is that they have not been dealing with a lumpen electorate. If one scans a large wall of books, one will find Leo Strauss, Ayn Rand, and other popularizers and intellectuals of the right. The problem is that they have been dealing with a conservative movement which has objectives, and is small enough to figure out ways of achieving them.

But now, our constitutional crisis begins with the fact that the popular movement knows that things are wrong. Because they do not have, in and of themselves, political power, they can only do things individually. When a state becomes conservative, people can only do one thing: Move. So, they move to the states that are more liberal. This has been documented by The Big Sort, by Bill Bishop. In fact, this problem should have been a priority for the federal government, and the Democratic party was, itself, part of the problem. Instead of making the country rich and making money, it reversed itself and made money, giving only the bare minimum. Some would make them selves rich, but many more became poor. This was fine for the Wall Street types who paid the Democratic party elites (including Bill and Hillary), but it created a wave of people who could not move from their state, and thus found few opportunities to make money.

The Republican party thought they had an answer: Real estate. And so for six years, from 2002-2007, there was a binge. Banking’s infrastructure managed, sagged, and then exploded. The Republican party thought that they would be fine, as they had learned that easing of money in a time of crisis was essential. Not for the poor, but for the rich. The rich would eventually pay it back, if not it could be forwarded indefinitely.

So the populace moved to the coasts, and the rich could make money on them doing so.

Now for the crisis: We could, by means of a treaty, create a popular mechanism for electing a president. But–and this is a very large but–that does not do any good for the populace who cannot, or will not, move. The draining away, the big sort, needs to be fixed. So even if we created the is a popular election mechanism, it wouldn’t change the fact that a large majority of states are retrograde. In terms of healthcare, climate change, and other problems–including the reborn banking crisis.

This is what we are up against, not a minor crisis, nor even a major one, but a constitutional crisis. Because a Trump presidency will eventually have to make unreal news real. It cannot help itself: The “facts” upon which it was collected are unreal, and, in no small number of cases, ugly unreal. There are people who do not look like “people” to the Trump voter, and they will do something about this. We may have one more chance, though I do say “may.” It is a return to a thought process, not just a mode of governing. A thought process which looks ahead, and sees problems long before they become a problem.

The alternative is destruction of the environment, and of people who are different, disabled, or locked in to a place. The new Democratic Party is still very much real, and though those who control it cannot govern the country, they can squash people who are disenchanted with them. Remember, a great deal of the country will have to get behind what could be called “The New New Deal.” They will have two have this problem explained, not in one long lesson but in short bursts. The need to have it explained why Kennedy was able to wedge himself in, but our new president cannot. There are a host of reasons, and they need to be drilled into the minds of those people who will do the explaining.

We need to do this now, because there is no then. This is our last chance.

The Votes by Income Graph Does Not Prove Working Class Whites Didn’t Break for Trump

So, this little graph is going around and causing people to say that it proves that working class whites did not break for Trump. It says no such thing.

The reasoning is simple. African Americans and Latinos broke hard for Clinton. Exit polls show Clinton got 88 percent of the African American vote, she received 65 percent of the Latino vote.

Poor Latinos and Blacks are a lot poorer than poor whites. That makes up the difference. Meanwhile, we know that the poorer the county, the more likely Trump was to win it, and we know he made his big break-through in the Rust Belt, where there are a lot of poor whites.

We also know Trump got approximately 72 percent vs. 23 percent of white males votes without a college degree, vs. 54 percent/39 percent for those with a college degree.

No, the white working class story, at least so far holds up and it holds up well.

The real story isn’t about working class white males, it is that Clinton lost white women, 43 percent to 53 percent. She lost who you’d expect her to lose, she didn’t win the people who were supposed to be “with her,” and won minorities by lower margins than Obama. She also lost white counties which were willing to go for Obama.

Update: This chart is particularly damning.

Shift In Voters by Income

Shift In Voters by Income

 


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