The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: April 2019 Page 2 of 3

If Non Sanders Democratic Nominees Can’t Convince Voters To Vote For Them Isn’t That Bad?

 

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 In 2008 15% of Clinton primary voters for McCain. They united under the term PUMAs (Party Unity, My Ass.)

Because people seem to have no memory, the nastiness of the 2008 primary has been forgotten. At one point Clinton was pilloried for supposedly suggesting that Obama should be assassinated, for example. (No, she didn’t say anything close to that.)

Anyway, in 2016, 12% of Sanders primary voters voted for Trump, which is, well, less than the 15% of PUMAs voting for McCain.

Now there’s a poll showing that 26% of voters considering Bernie might not vote Democrat if Bernie isn’t the nominee.

This is apparently a bad thing, according to the screeching.

Except, of course, it isn’t.

What it indicates is that Sanders is able to motivate people who wouldn’t necessarily vote Democrat otherwise. In the 2016 primaries the pattern was that, in fact, Sanders tended to win Independents, and Clinton won Democrats.

And all polling showed that Sanders, had he been the nominee, would outperform Clinton against Trump.

Makes sense, doesn’t it, if he’s able to convince non Democrats to vote for him?

On an ethical level, no one owes the Democrats or Republicans or any candidate their vote automatically.

Represent their interests, convince them you do so.

EARN their vote. If non-Bernie candidates can’t do that, perhaps they shouldn’t be the nominee?


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The Most Fundamental Test of Intellectual And Ethical Integrity

… is whether or not someone will argue against their interest.

If you are rich, do you ever argue for high taxes, perhaps? If you are a home owner, do you argue for policies which even the field with renting? If you have a job doing something harmful, do you argue that job shouldn’t exist or be changed to something less harmful.

People who always argue their interest are have no integrity and should not be listened to in public debates.

Of course interest has to be understood properly. One may be in a social group where arguing against apparent interest isn’t actually that. In certain left-wing circles arguing against women’s rights isn’t really against interest, because you’d be a pariah. And there is a reason why women married to right wing men, vote right wing: it’s not actually against their interest.

(These examples don’t mean I approve, they’re just examples.)

A lot of apparent insanity comes from people arguing what their social group believes, even if it’s against hard interest. It’s not in young right wing men’s interest to support climate change denial, but it’s part of what their ideology and group believes, so they do. Incels have some beliefs that make it less likely they’ll get laid or find love with a woman, but, again, changing those beliefs (or at least arguing from them) would leave them ostracized from their group.

A person with integrity has principles, and applies those principles. If one believes all people should be treated with dignity, for example, one might support another group’s rights even if that’s against one’s own interest and even if member’s of one’s own group would be angered by the stand.

Integrity.


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So You Want to Be the Next Silicon Valley? One Thing You Must Not Do.

Recently I’ve been re-reading Peter Hall’s magisterial “Cities in Civilization.” It’s a huge doorstopper of a book, the majority of which is histories of cities’ Golden Ages. Artistic, technological, civic, and so on.

One of the histories is of Silicon Valley.

And if there is anything which is clear from that history it is that Silicon Valley could not exist if California allowed non-competes. Silicon Valley’s history is of people working for one firm, leaving and starting up a new company which directly competed with that firm. Fairchild Semiconductor was famous, or infamous for this, and among its children is the company Intel.

Non-competes are, well, non-competitive. The idea that someone should be locked out from doing what they know best just because it might hurt a previous employer is radically non-capitalistic.

Oh, there’s other stuff, of course. Like a lot of technological golden age cities, SV is a child of government and university. At the key stage of computer development, government was buying about half of all computers, and in effect paying the entire R&D budget of Silicon Valley. Likewise, without Stanford, there is no Silicon Valley.

But the engine that kept Silicon Valley going was that anyone could leave their current employer and start up a firm competing with them.

If your laws allow non-competes, you will not be the next Silicon Valley. Doesn’t mean you can’t be the next, say, Berlin (the core of the electrical revolution), or the next Detroit (er, back when that meant something good), but you won’t have what Silicon Valley did.

I do wonder, myself, if Silicon Valley can survive after having off-shored most of its production. Historically, that doesn’t tend to go very well. At first it doesn’t matter, as when Britain off-shored production to the US, and still produced the majority of new inventions. But eventually there is a drop off. Having the factory where the designers are seems to matter.

Perhaps that’s changed, but real change of fundamentals like that is rare.

We’ll see.


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The Forbidden Truth About Analog Technology

… is that a lot of it was, well, better, than digital technology.

I was remembering, the other day, library card catalogues.

Here’s a truth many will refuse to believe: They were faster to use, easier to use, and provided better results than modern computerized library terminals. You looked up the code for what you wanted, flipped that section of the cards, and not only did you usually find the book you wanted, you found a bunch of other books which were related, whether or not their title sounded like it.

Then you went to that section of the library shelves and found all sorts of books on the subject in which you were interested, along with related subjects.

Then, there were employment centers. They put the cards on walls. You walked in, looked at them, copied down the contact info for any in which you were interested. The process took minutes, especially on any follow up visits, as you’d recognize any old jobs.

When they were replaced by computers, I found the process took at least ten times as long.

Back in the late 90s, I worked on a huge auditing project. Some of the files were computerized, some were still entirely on paper. I can state for a fact that the paper files were faster to audit — about half the time, because I was doing both at the same time.

Having worked on both paper file systems and computer systems, I can say that, in general, paper file systems were faster. Further, each new iteration of computer technology has slowed things down. The old mainframe systems were faster than PCs, and as PC software went through generations, it became less and less efficient. Often this was because managers wanted control: They wanted workers to click buttons and confirm things were done, and enter extraneous information, and use pull down menus, and blah, blah…all things that slowed work down.

Other times, it was because the servers were no longer on site, they were some distance away. I remember when one employer moved the servers to IBM: It may have saved $$ on server costs, but each button click took half a second or so. I actually measured the loss of worker productivity (because management refused to believe it existed). It was about 30 percent and the better the worker, the more it was. The best workers were losing about half their productivity; the system could not keep up with their flying fingers.

Then there are things like answering machines and emails. These are ways for people to interrupt workers and demand they do something — often something “right now.” These interruptions slow workers down, interrupting work flow. Often, if the worker was left alone, whatever problem the caller or emailer wanted dealt with would have been taken care of, but constant interruptions destroy productivity.

That isn’t to say that PCs, the internet, and cell and smart phones never increase productivity. Sometimes they do, usually by allowing remote work, as long as that remote work is not closely supervised. Remote workers are usually more productive if doing skilled work.

The horror show side is where real-time telemetry is used to micromanage workers doing repetitive tasks. Amazon warehouses and call centers are both hell-zones due to this. This certainly improves efficiency, but it turns workers into drones and loses all benefits of worker initiative and innovation. If a manager doesn’t think of it, it doesn’t happen, and even low-ranked managers in these regimes are really just supervisors dancing to an algorithm.

All of this speaks to a dirty secret: With a few exceptions, the allaged productivity gains from the internet and late telecom revolution just haven’t shown up. This revolution is a control revolution. It allows finely-tuned control by bosses and the powers that be. It allows them to have access to fine-grained information that, in the past, required a Stasi-like state, without having to send someone to the basement for the file, and with algos doing the first-wave of sorting and analysis.

Information is what this is good for — information and data.

But information doesn’t want to be free. Information wants to flow uphill to bosses, governments, and spies. Information allows levels of control which are, in effect, totalitarian.

Technologies are not neutral. They are better for some things than for others. And this tech revolution is a revolution whose main effect has been to allow closer control of humans. It is inherently authoritarian.

That’s not all it is — there have certainly been good effects — but it is not a utopian technology which makes everyone better off.

The reverse appears to be true, at least so far. Even in fields like social media (which are surveillance technologies masquerading as public forums), the studies are in, and they are clear: The more you use social media the worse it is for you.

Humans aren’t meant to be surveilled by anyone except their family, friends, and neighbours. Anything beyond that is inhuman and has negative effects on our well-being.

So, we have a technology which mostly hasn’t improved productivity, which is inherently authoritarian and which, the more it is used for certain major tasks, leads to reduced well-being.

Tech revolutions aren’t always good. So far, it looks like this one, on balance, is bad. (And I say this as someone who has personally benefited from this revolution.)


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Week-end Wrap April 14, 2019

Strategic Political Economy

“Research is vital to the moral integrity of social movements” 
Rev. Dr. William J. Barber II [Economic Policy Institute, via Naked Capitalism 4-8-19]
A must-read.

One of the quickest ways for a movement to lose its integrity is to be loud and wrong. We’ve seen too many movements that have bumper sticker sayings but no stats and no depth. Researchers help to protect the moral integrity of a movement by providing sound analysis of the facts and issues at hand. Armed with this information, we’re able to pull back the cover and force society to see the hurt and the harm of the decisions that people are making….

…the prophet Isaiah said to those who were rich, powerful and presumed themselves to be morally superior. “Woe unto those who legislate evil and rob the poor of their rights and make women and children their prey.” Isaiah even went as far as saying that religious activity—worship and prayer—was not a cover for their failure to “loose the band of wickedness.” Wickedness in that text is specific to the issue of not paying people what they deserve and trying to cover it over with a lot of religiosity. He goes on to say that the nation will never be able to repair itself until it ends the wickedness of not paying people what they deserve. Because society’s policies had actually insulated destruction, injustice and inequality could never be resolved without a change of policy.

These statements reflect more than just a difference of opinion concerning the legislation. Rather, such bold and specific statements suggest an analysis of the society which concluded that the legislation was evil in that it was robbing those who were most vulnerable. In other words, Isaiah’s moral authority to criticize policy could be confirmed and validated by research….

The 13 former Confederate states, which only have about 36 percent of this country’s population, decide 178 electoral votes, 26 United States Senate seats and 35 percent of the seats in the United States House of Representatives. That means all it takes to win control of both houses of Congress is 25 Senate seats and 16 percent of U.S. House of Representatives seats available from the other 37 states.

100 million is the number of people that didn’t vote in the 2016 election. 40 million is the number of poor and low-wealth people in this country. The majority of them are in the South and are the key to the transformation of our politics.

All of the close elections we witnessed in the 2018 midterms are a sign that we are right at the tipping point. If there’s ever been a time that we ought to go south and shift the political calculus in this nation for the next 20 to 40 years and beyond, it is in fact right now.

Eat the Young: Student Loan Version

So, does this look predation to you?

It looks like predation to me.

Here’s the thing, in the bankruptcy bill, Joe Biden, among others, made it impossible to default on student loans.

This is bad. It is bad capitalism. In capitalism, people who lend money are supposed to bear the risk of lending money. If someone can’t pay them back, they should lose the money they loaned. The function of lenders, in capitalism, is to allocate money to those who will make enough to pay it back. That is the justification for letting people have lots of money–that they are good at allocating it.

When you remove the risk, by having the government both back the loans AND make it so they can’t be discharged in bankruptcy, you make it so the virtues of capitalism (such as they are) don’t work.

In truth, education should be mostly free and paid for by the government. There’s an ethical argument for that, but it’s not the one I’m making.

If education actually increases earnings or welfare (someone who is healthier will cost the government less, someone who is happier is better for other people), then that’s good. The problem with it is that it’s hard to capture. Not everyone gets a lot of benefit from education, but some people do.

Government, if it has high enough progressive taxation, doesn’t need quantify who will win from educating their citizens. They only need to know that enough people will and that whoever wins, they’ll get their share of it. This isn’t just about income or happiness or health: A lot of the greatest inventors, for example, didn’t make much money. Someone else did.

No problem. Government still taxes whoever that is.

This is government’s great advantage, and why there are a lot of things government should do.

But because the recapture rate is basically the progressive taxation rate + the rate of taxation of corporate profits, if you have low taxation it doesn’t work.

Note, also, that what private investors have done, by making default impossible, and having the government guarantee loans, is to make the government give them something close to government returns. “Now we don’t need to know who wins, because we always win.”

But since they bear only the upside and not the downside, unlike a good government, they don’t have an incentive to actually make education good.

Education costs are out of control. So are education loans. This is the rich and, generally speaking, the older, taking returns from the young and poor.

It’s evil. It’s economically stupid. It’s not capitalism.

Let’s hope it ends soon, and for a bonus, let’s hope that government makes default possible again and refuses to make “investors” whole.


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Julian Assange Arrested for Violating Bail

Update 2: So, we have a US extradition charge. This is a direct assault on the freedom of the press and those who say it isn’t are fools. The DOJ claim is that Assange didn’t just accept Manning’s documents, he encouraged Manning to go get more. Journalists do this all the time. Likewise, Assange is not American and Wikileaks is not an American institution, so the US is claiming extraordinary extradition rights.

So, it begins. The US put a ton of pressure on Ecuador to make this happen:

Julian Assange

In itself, this isn’t a big deal, though Ecuador’s caving is pathetic (if rather expected). The question is: What comes next? If Assange is extradited to the US, it will be a huge blow for freedom of the press. Since the Swedish sexual assault charges have been rescinded, if that doesn’t happen this all seems rather overblown.

This has nothing to do with Assange being something of a piece of work. It has to do with the fact that the information Wikileaks released with collateral murder, and even with the DNC leak, was legitimate journalistic information. The idea that journalists don’t accept info from state actors or don’t have political biases and preferences is hilariously wrong and stupid.

It’s also absurd to pretend that Assange has been treated as any other suspect. He hasn’t. His entire case has been politicized from the start, with pressure exerted that is not routine for the sort of sexual assault of which he was accused.

This is a political situation, from its start to its conclusion, whatever that might be.

Remember that Manning was just recently sent to prison on contempt charges because she refused to cooperate with a US grand jury on Wikileaks.

Assange isn’t a nice guy and that isn’t relevant to either his rights, or the bad precedent which will be set if he is prosecuted for releasing information, no matter what the source or reason.

Discuss below, and we’ll see how this plays out.

Update: video of the removal. Pathetic.


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Don’t Confuse Capitalism with Industrialization

There is a very bad habit among modern triumphalists, the types who go on and on about how great the current world is, to confuse capitalism and industrialization.

Capitalism is part of how many nations industrialized, but industrialization is where the majority of the gains come from. When you replace human labor with machines run by coal and hydrocarbons and some other sources of power, you get most of the gains of capitalism.

This is why for much of its history the USSR, in fact, did just fine, and actually outgrew most capitalist nations.

Nor is the victory of “capitalism” as clean and clear as people make out. With a very few exceptions, mostly city states, countries industrialized under protectionism, not under “free trade” or “free markets.” This is beyond question, it is not open to debate: It is true of America, Japan, China and Britain, among others.

These were very heavily state-managed economies in many cases. Germany’s electrical revolution was a result of the German High Command making sure it happened, “Siemens, my good man, go start an electrical company!” (Hall’s “Cities in Civilization” tells this story well.)

Likewise, Japan had massive government involvement. And this is when we pretend that, say, Britain forbidding the export of raw wool, wasn’t a government action (and without which there is no textile revolution and thus, likely, no Industrial Revolution at all.)

Nonetheless, to be sure, the majority of the world did industrialize under some form of capitalism. Capitalism is how a lot of the decisions of what to do were made. Capitalism is how the right to command resources was allocated. But it doesn’t happen without massive government intervention: Commons don’t enclose themselves, government has to be onside. Chinese villages don’t give up and say, “Make me into housing!” by themselves either, government force is involved. There is little natural capital accumulation: It comes from taking away other people’s stuff and rights.

Unless we run across extra-terrestrials, or we lose our modern technological civilization, we will never know if it would have been possible to industrialize other than through central government mobilization (so-called communism), protectionist capitalism, or free trade capitalism (for city states).

However, capitalism was, and is, a way to distribute resources to do things. It is not the things themselves. It is not, itself, industrialization, and confusing the two is a dangerous intellectual error.

It is at least conceivable that we could have industrialized in very different ways than we did. History is contingent, what happened happened, but it was a result of specific historical conditions interacting with principles.

Better power sources, funneled through better machines, is the Industrial Revolution. That is not what capitalism is.

And because either we made bad decisions due to our adherence to capitalism, which have lead to the current onrushing climate and ecological crises, OR it is intrinsic to industrialisms, we’d better hope it was capitalism (and state communism) which was the primary problem. We had better hope that there are ways to use machines and energy that won’t cause environmental catastrophe; that there are other ways to decide who gets resources and for what purpose they use them.

If there aren’t, well, we’re likely to lose our civilization or even go extinct.

We need to stop being nodes in a shitty resource allocation algorithm, and we need to start actually making sane decisions based on group autonomy and welfare.

And capitalism, capitalism doesn’t do that.


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