The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: June 2019 Page 1 of 4

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 29, 2019

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 29, 2019
by Tony Wikrent
Economics Action Group, North Carolina Democratic Party Progressive Caucus

Strategic Political Economy

Jan Fichtner, Eelke Heemskerk, Javier Garcia-Bernardo, May 11, 2017 [The Conversation, via Alternet]

Disrupting mainstream economics

The new left economics: how a network of thinkers is transforming capitalism
[The Guardian, via Naked Capitalism 6-27-19]

There is a dawning recognition that a new kind of economy is needed: fairer, more inclusive, less exploitative, less destructive of society and the planet. “We’re in a time when people are much more open to radical economic ideas,” says Michael Jacobs, a former prime ministerial adviser to Gordon Brown. “The voters have revolted against neoliberalism.

Climate and environmental crises

End of Fundraiser and Open Thread

The fundraiser is over. All goals were met.

Feel free to use this as an open thread.

Polling at this Time in 2015

Found this tweet, thought it was important enough to share:


Now I wouldn’t go as far as DeRosa: There probably were a few people who got it right, but the larger point is that polls have a good chance of changing a lot over time.

In the 2008 Democratic primary, things went back and forth a lot. Even once the field had been thinned, it wasn’t obviously Obama for a while.

None of this is to say that Biden doesn’t have the best odds, just that he’s by no means a sure thing.

Matching Donations Finished

The $1,000 in matching donations has now been met.

The fundraiser will continue till Friday midnight, and any donations will be more than appreciated, but they won’t be matched.

A sincere thank you to the matching donor, and to everyone who has donated.

The 16 reviews and the booklet on how to think will be written.

DONATE OR SUBSCRIBE

The Problem with Public Expertise

One of the talking points against the internet and social media is that it has led to the death of expertise.

The issue with this is that, when you move away from the hard sciences and engineering, which still leaves vast swathes of public policy, the experts aren’t much, if any, better than laypeople.

The majority of pundits got the Iraq war wrong. The majority of economists (the vast majority) did not see the housing/CDO bubble and did not expect the financial collapse.

The people that were the gatekeepers of the old media pick, suck. Almost all of them got wrong the two most important issues of 2000s.

So the idea that the internet and social media is worse seems questionable.


(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)


As for fake news, I will point out, again, that the New York Times liked about the Iraq war. Fake news.

With devastating consequences.

This isn’t to say that no filters or regulation would be good, but I don’t trust this government or these social media companies to decide who gets to talk.

I think anyone who does is foolish.

FINISHED — Matching Donations up to $1,000 Total

FINISHED

The matching donations are now met, thank you to everyone who donated!

A donor has generously offered to match all donations, up to a total of $1,000 or till Friday midnight (the end of the fundraiser.)

When we’ve reached the total, if we do before the end, I’ll put up a post, subject to vagaries of being awake and at a computer.

My sincere thanks to this donor, and everyone who has given.

DONATE OR SUBSCRIBE

Open Thread

A lot of commenters have off-topic stuff, so here’s an open thread. Enjoy.

Fundraising Update and the Art of Thinking

We have raised $9,353. That means we’ve reached the first two milestones, and I’ll write sixteen reviews of books with useful information.

The final milestone is at $11,000, and is to be a booklet, “How To Think: Understanding the World.”

The fundraiser will end at midnight this coming Friday, June 28th.

DONATE OR SUBSCRIBE

I deeply appreciate all the subscriptions and donations. They will make a difference to my life. So thank you to those who have given. (And ongoing subscriptions are counted in the donation total, at three times the monthly amount.)

Let’s talk a little more about the booklet, in case we make it to the $11,000 milestone.

One of the great problems with thinking clearly is that it’s anti-survival and anti-inclusion.

It is safest in almost all circumstances, and certainly best for one’s career and better for staying good with one’s social circle, to simply agree with the beliefs of whatever groups we belong to.

If you are wrong in the same way as other people around you, and especially as important people, then you will not be blamed when things go wrong.

So to think accurately it helps to be an outsider, or to cultivate an outsider’s mindset.

At the same time, to think well about social issues, you also have to understand insiders, people who rarely have a thought or belief that is different from their social groups.

This is tricky psychologically. Generally, people who grew up or live in a society but who feel like outsiders have the best chance of pulling it off. They still have to live in that society, so for their own protection and survival they need to understand the in-groups, but the lack of identity gives them distance and some objectivity, if they aren’t too bitter.

Relatedly, in the same way that we often understand other people better than we do ourselves, there are times when we can see other societies more clearly than most people who live in or have more knowledge of that society. Because we are outside, we can see the forest.

And then, sometimes, lack of knowledge does trip us up. It’s hard. And adjusting the telescope/microscope to find the right scale is one of the tricks of analysis and understanding.

Also important is identifying what scales you’re good at, and places where you are unable to take the outside or inside view. You can then find ways to compensate, if possible, or you can simply stop trying to understand if you decide it’s not worth it. (For example I’ve simply accepted that I’m not very good at predicting elections any more. I know why, and I could try to calibrate, but it’d be a lot of work, I might not be successful, and it’s not important for me to be able to predict elections because I have very little ability to influence them or take advantage of that sort of prediction.)

At any rate, if the booklet is funded, we’ll deal with issues like this and many others.

If you want to see it written, please subscribe or donate.

 

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