The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: April 2020 Page 4 of 7

The Transition to Capitalism

One of the most important things to understand about industrial capitalism is that the lower classes didn’t want it.

Peasants did not leave the land voluntarily. They were forced off, often violently, in a series of enclosures, through which their millennia-old rights to use the land were taken together.

This was a vast, albeit “legal” (because bills were passed that made it legal), seizure of property rights. Property is just rights, and those rights were taken from the peasantry and free farmers and given to the lords.

The justification for this was that “enclosed lands are more productive,” but detailed study has found this was only somewhat true: Commons fields were about 80 percent to 90 percent as productive, and their productivity increased at the same rate as enclosed fields. For some crops, common fields were more productive.

With the the fields enclosed, the peasantry lost control of capital (land is capital). They couldn’t grow their own food, raise sheep for wool, chop down trees for fuel, and so on.

They were thus forced off the land, into the city slums, and had to work for industrialists, six and a half days a week, 12 hours a day on average. They died younger, there was far more disease, they were maimed often, and they lived worse.

They knew this. They resisted. They hated.

Capitalism, among the many things that it is, is the concentration of capital in the hands of a few people. That means access to capital is removed from most people. Most people must now work for someone else. In some times and places that work is nice, at others it is not, but it is a loss of control and choice.

Peasants and free farmers in Britain had far more control over what they did and when than factory workers. In fact, they had more control than most modern American workers do today.

Yes, they had to engage in demeaning status rituals from which we are largely exempt, but they had a type of freedom most wage slaves don’t.

The choice for most people today is to choose their master, not to choose to have no master. The local gentry or nobles did not supervise the peasants most of the time, they let them get on with their work, took their share of the proceeds, and got a certain number of days of work from the peasantry.

But they were not close-supervising them.

Again, we tend to compare today with then, but this is the wrong comparison. The comparison is then (peasant/yeoman) with then (factory worker). The first was so far superior to the second as for there to be no comparison.

Was all of this disempowerment, this removal of capital from everyone but the few, necessary for industrialization and its benefits? Did people have to be forced off the land and into satanic mills, where they worked like dogs and died young?

Or was there a better path, which we did not take?

And what are the results today? The results are, in fact, that fewer and fewer people have control over capital or the means of production, and the rest of us have to do what those people say, not just for a month or two every year and here’s a share, but for five or more days a week, with intrusive monitoring and micro-managing bosses.

They control the capital. We do what they tell us to, negotiating only who wields the whip.

That’s capitalism.

Did it have to be that way?


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US Covid April 16th Data

Our benefactor writes:

Fixed the three-day averages of deaths, due to the sharp observations of a reader. We might be in for a long tail after the flattening, with the number of deaths significantly higher, an increase of 4,920, of which more than 3,000 came from NY. I double- and triple-checked these numbers. This is not good news. (Ian — New York Added in the deaths from people taken out of their houses, so that jump is due to counting previously uncounted deaths. The huge jump in deaths and three-day averages today is in part an artifact of these deaths being added in one lump, rather than being backfitted.)

The biggest percent increases in cases have come from:
South Dakota (18 percent), Arkansas, Florida, Rhode Island, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and D.C.

The comparisons to the NY Times ultimately revealed that my three-day averages were inaccurate. The NY Times’ daily increases are aligned with Johns Hopkins data.


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US Covid April 15th Data

Our benefactor writes:

So, a friend of mine forwarded this link to a NY Times reporting tool. If you scroll down, you see the graph below. I was really puzzled by it, because the number of daily deaths is far below what I am getting from Johns Hopkins. The NY Times appears to be collecting their own data in-house and are seriously under-counting. Ironically, at the top of the article they write, “More than 25,000 people with the coronavirus have now died in the United States, according to a New York Times database. Since early April, that death toll has been growing by more than 1,000 each day.” The total count is correct, but the daily rate is totally off. They would never reach that number without a much larger daily rate.
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Here is the three-day average from my data, which is taken by state and summed from Johns Hopkins CSSE data. We have not had a single day less than 2,000 cases in the last week. The data are pointing to a worsening of outcomes perhaps due to the increases coming from southern and mid-western states that are not as restrictive about quarantining, combined with expected lags in deaths as compared to new cases.

Note: As a commenter pointed out, the three-day averages for deaths were wrong. They’ve been corrected. My apologies. (Ian)


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The Duty and Responsibility of Left-wing Leaders

Let us say that you are leading a movement which, if it wins, will save hundreds of thousands to millions of deaths, and will take millions of out of poverty.

The corollary to this is that if you fail, if you lose, those people will die or be stuck in poverty, and generally that many others will fall into poverty.

Your loss, then, occasions a great deal of suffering.

It is often hard to know what to do to win, and there are red lines. Unless a situation has descended to civil war, or you intend civil war, like America’s founding fathers or slavery abolitionist John Brown, you shouldn’t murder, and obviously rape and torture are off the board no matter what.

But because the stakes are so high, you do have a responsibility to play your hand seriously. It isn’t actually a game.

In modern democracies, the most important thing is to control parties. Margaret Thatcher said that her victory was only complete when Labour accepted her ideology. If they hadn’t, when they got into power, they would have just un-done everything she did. John Major, the Tory PM wasn’t her true successor–Tony Blair was.

When Corbyn won the leadership of the Labour party he took over a neoliberal Blairite party. Most of the MPs had voted for most of the worst Tory policies, or abstained from the key votes. They were complicit in a great deal of the evils of austerity.

They were implacable enemies of Corbyn, as were the party bureaucrats. Indeed, a story came out with emails proving that these bureaucrats worked against Corbyn in the 2017 election. Given just how close that election was, they probably cost Corbyn the victory.

Had Corbyn won, he would have refunded the NHS. If it was a majority victory, he’d still be Prime Minister and he wouldn’t have bungled the Coronavirus response like Johnson, a bungling which appears to have about doubled the death rate next to comparable European countries.

Those bureaucrats, then, are responsible for the deaths caused by Johnson being PM. If you don’t understand this, you need to learn how, because this sort of thing is the key driver of why our societies are so bad: The forseeable consequences of evil actions are treated as if they are incidental. Having incompetent ideologues in charge of government who believe that “society doesn’t exist,” and that government isn’t responsible for people’s welfare has consequences.

Corbyn also failed in another important way: He never kicked out MPs who were traitorously constantly attacking him, nor did he support the mandatory re-selction of MPs, a process by which the Labour membership gets to vote for their nominee.

Doing both of these things would have transformed Labour back into a proper left-wing party, and given Corbyn a much greater chance at victory. Even if he lost both elections, his successor would be left-wing and properly supported by the party, and in first past the post democracy, the second party will eventually wind up in power.

Nothing is more important than ideological control of a party.

Now, the thing here is that neither of these strategies required Corbyn to go against his beliefs: Corbyn always said he believed the party should be run by the membership. Re-selections, indeed re-selection every election, is exactly and completely in accord with that.

Corbyn is a truly good man, but like a lot of people of his generation, he has an addiction to being nice, confusing it with being good.

Being nice to bad actors, to MPs who support cutting the NHS and social welfare and bailing out bankers, isn’t good, it’s evil. They need to be removed from power. This isn’t terrible for them, no centrist MP is likely to wind up on the bread lines if they aren’t an MP (which is part of why they were willing to be evil).

Then we have Sanders. Sanders was never as good a man in political terms as Corbyn, his politics are nowhere near as good. Still, he was a good man in American terms.

Sanders is also addicted to niceness. He refused to attack Biden on Biden’s terrible record, a record which is at odds with everything that Sanders claims to believe in, supposedly because Biden was his good friend.

This is dereliction of duty. If he had done it because he believed it was the best strategy, fine. It might or might not be. But to put his friendship with Biden against the welfare and even the lives of millions of Americans is a sickening betrayal of principle and of his followers.

Power has responsibility. Those who work to save millions of lives and make sure millions more are not in poverty, have a responsibility to their mission, and that responsibility does not allow one to put one’s personal desire to be “nice” ahead of the mission.

Good and nice are not the same thing. Niceness is, well, nice, but people who are willing to impoverish and kill millions are evil people and they need to lose their power. The actions taken to remove their power may not be “nice,” but they are good.

I admire Corbyn more than any other British politician of the past 40 years. But he failed in part because he wasn’t willing to be even moderately ruthless against people who were, well, doing a lot of evil. Traitors, in fact.

As for Sanders, well, it appears the same is true. He asked his followers to fight for someone they didn’t know, but he wasn’t willing to fight someone he did know.

A hypocrite, in effect.

Sanders’ and Corbyn’s times are done. They were the best of the Boomers, the last major politicians who hadn’t sold out or sold their soul. Their failures are not theirs alone. Brits and American Democrats genuinely prefer to let people die and live in poverty than vote for a moderate left-winger. That it is older Brits who voted against Corbyn whom Johnson’s policies are killing is ironic.

New politicians will now rise. Hopefully those on the left are people who understand that if one is the champion of the people, one has responsibilities which go beyond being nice to those doing evil. That, in fact, their responsibility is to remove all power from those who use that power from evil.

Doing so won’t be nice to the people who lose their power. It will be “nice” and good to those who are lifted out of poverty or who don’t die due to evil austerity policies, corruption, and incompetence.

Gotta decide what’s more important. Being nice to bad people, or doing good.

And you have to be willing to actually use power when you have it. The right certainly is. The left needs to be.


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April 14th US Covid Data

A note from our benefactor:

We will probably get to 40,000 deaths by the end of April. We’re still increasing by more than 2,000 deaths per day, and most doctors are seeing a ten to 14 day lag in deaths after new cases. I’ve seen projections of 60,000 deaths by August. If everyone goes back to work in early May, it may be much sooner.

(These are official deaths, of course, the studies done afterwards will show larger numbers.)

 

 


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The Next Problem Will Be Food

Alright, back in February I warned people to get ready to shelter in place.

Now I’m telling you to be concerned about food price increases and even shortages. As Vinay Gupta points out, the signs of future problems are visible now. We have a ton of food rotting in fields, we have farmers without migrant workers, we have packing plants shutting down and so on. In India we have migrant workers sent home, etc.

In the short run, this might lead to lower prices (if they make it to consumers), but in the long run this may lead to higher food prices, at the most it may lead to shortages in some places. It will lead to hunger among those who cannot afford the price increases.

Some countries will be particularly vulnerable, for example India.

So, stock up if you can. Simple stuff: rice, beans, canned goods, and so on. It’s highly unlikely, unless you have an ongoing issue already, that water will be a problem, so: food and medicine. This isn’t a “right now” issue, this is not for months–just buy a little extra when you go to the supermarket.

If it turns out you don’t need it, having some bags of rice and beans won’t do you any harm. If you do need it…

Actual functioning governments would be prioritizing things like keeping the food supply chain going: subsidize farm worker wages, and arrange protection for them, among other things. Instead, we are printing trillions of dollars and giving them to rich people to burn uselessly.

More on that later.


The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

April 13th US Covid Data

The curve continues to flatten, though the absolute numbers are bad.

A note from our benefactor:

The assertions on the right that deaths are being drastically over-counted are amazing to me–especially the assertions that this is not much more serious than the flu. Refutations with data simply lead to challenges of the data. The irony is that most flu deaths are also attributed to pneumonia or co-morbidity. https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1727839/


The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 12, 2020

by Tony Wikrent
Economics Action Group, North Carolina Democratic Party Progressive Caucus

Strategic Political Economy

Is Capitalism a Threat to Democracy?

[New Yorker, via Naked Capitalism 4-5-20]

In a sweeping, angry new book, “Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism?” (Norton), the journalist, editor, and Brandeis professor Robert Kuttner… [argues] today’s political impasse is different from that of the nineteen-thirties. It is being caused not by a stalemate between leftist governments and a reactionary business sector but by leftists in government who have reneged on their principles. Since the demise of the Soviet Union, Kuttner contends, America’s Democrats, Britain’s Labour Party, and many of Europe’s social democrats have consistently tacked rightward, relinquishing concern for ordinary workers and embracing the power of markets; they have sided with corporations and investors so many times that, by now, workers no longer feel represented by them. When strongmen arrived promising jobs and a shared sense of purpose, working-class voters were ready for the message.

Economic Armageddon

Key 2008 Financial Crisis Players Are Back for Coronavirus
[Bloomberg, via Naked Capitalism 4-5-20]
The same self-serving rentier parasites who were in charge in 2008-2009 are still in charge – another indication that USA political and economic systems are complete failures. They are unable to replace proven failed leadership with competent leadership. Not surprising that the professional class in the Democratic Party — which declined the opportunity in 2009-2010 to uproot the failed leadership of Wall Street, and is now besieged by a reality of innumerable crisis — responded to the challenge of Bernie Sanders, by desperately retreating to their Biden redoubt. 

  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin led a group of investors who purchased failed subprime mortgage lender IndyMac and ran the bank until its sale in 2015. Mnuchin is now leading President Donald Trump’s economic response to the pandemic.
  • Tim Geithner, President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 2009. CURRENT POSITION: President, Warburg Pincus
  • Larry Fink, CEO, BlackRock Inc. in 2008. CURRENT POSITION: CEO, BlackRock Inc.
  • Tom Montag, Head of Sales & Trading, Merrill Lynch & Co. in 2009. CURRENT POSITION:
  • Chief Operating Officer, Bank of America Corp.
  • Rodge Cohen, Chairman, Sullivan & Cromwell LLP in 2008. CURRENT POSITION: Chairman, Sullivan & Cromwell LLP
  • Alan Schwartz, CEO, Bear Stearns Cos. in 2008. CURRENT POSITION: Co-Chairman, Guggenheim Securities LLC
  • Gary Parr, Vice Chairman, Lazard Ltd. in 2008. CURRENT POSITION, Senior Managing Director, Apollo Global Management
  • To which let me add: Joe Biden, vice-president of the United States in 2009. CURRENT POSITION, Democratic nominee for U.S. President

‘Breadlines’ Erupt Across America As Lockdowns Crush America’s “Working Poor”
[ZeroHedge 4-10-20]

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