The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: August 2020 Page 1 of 3

Protect Yourself from Political Violence in the Age of Facial Recognition and Doxxing

We’re seeing a rise in right-wing militia violence, condoned by police. Police themselves are already using facial recognition to identify protesters.

American authoritarianism is likely to follow the Latin American model, which Americans taught in the School of the Americas, and which they have backed for over a century in many countries. It will be combined with elements of how Israelis treat Palestinians, because Israelis train American police departments.

In this model, most of the beatings, “punishment” rapes, torture, and murder are done by militias. The police never catch them (and some are members, as they are already), and, of course, co-operate with them.

This is similar to what’s already going on; various law enforcement seizing people off the street without showing ID, into unmarked vans and cars, except that it’ll be private citizens doing it.

Then, they’ll do to you as they please, and no one will help.

Don’t think that if you’re a squishy liberal rather than a left-winger that’ll stop them. They hate feminists and so on just as much as the left, and all my life I’ve read their screeds about how they want to rape them or hang them from lamp-posts.

They’re increasingly being given the nod, and at some point, this is likely to start happening in earnest.

Don’t think Biden will save you. He might slow this down slightly, but he and Harris are extremely harsh on public disorder, and their administration will only make economic and political conditions worse, creating the grounds for the next authoritarian right-winger, who will learn from Trump but be far more disciplined.

The US’s only real chance of avoiding this future is a “Hail, Mary” — something like AOC winning the presidency in ’24 or ’28.

Might happen, but don’t bet on it.

So, some simple guidelines:

  • Wear a mask when protesting, always.
  • Don’t bring your phone with you.
  • Don’t take pictures of protesters without masks, so they can’t be identified and doxxed. The ability to do both doesn’t just belong to cops — private individuals can do it just fine, and in any case, cops will pass on information to their buddies in the militias.
  • Use a pseudonym online if you’re seriously left-wing or liberal. This is especially important for women.
  • Make some efforts to manage your digital footprint, so you’re harder to dox.
  • Take some precautions in your physical life to secure yourself, possibly including living with people who will fight for you (and you for them).
  • Prepare to leave where you are and go somewhere else. Somewhere else in the US, perhaps, or somewhere outside the US. Remember that what is actually mostly untraceable is cash.

Perhaps I’m overly concerned or even alarmist. I hope so. But I’d rather give this warning, have some people take extra precautions and not need them, than not give the warning, and see people hurt or killed who might have avoided the fate.

I don’t like what I’m seeing. The right has been itching to really punish the left and liberals for a long time, and all it really requires is that authorities give them the nod and step aside.

That process has begun. It may be walked back, it may not.

Beware.


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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 30, 2020

by Tony Wikrent

Strategic Political Economy

Articles of impeachment drawn up against Gov. Mike DeWine over coronavirus orders
[Cleveland.com, via Naked Capitalism 8-26-20]
A key principle of republicanism is public virtue: if your self-interests conflicts with the general welfare, you have a duty to not oppose the general welfare. Clearly, the principle of republicanism is dead in this country, hence, it is no longer a republic. Some of the most discomfiting passages from the speeches and writings of the foundering era of USA dealt with the issue of a people becoming unfit to govern themselves.

Another key principle of republicanism is that citizens must not be dependent on anyone else if they are to be able to judge public affairs with sufficient disinterestedness to make the general welfare their major concern. This principle created major problems, however, as it was used to justify restricting the vote on “men of means” only. This created an opening for ruling elites to establish oligarchy, especially in the South. In practice, it meant white supremacy. As Dayen writes below: “The way you control labor is that you don’t pay enough to ever have workers be comfortable.”


The Logic of the Boss
David Dayen, August 27, 2020 [American Prospect]

The absolute last person you should ever ask about a labor action connected to racial justice is Jared Kushner. So of course CNBC did just that this morning. Kushner told Andrew Ross Sorkin: “The NBA players are very fortunate that they have the financial position where they’re able to take a night off from work without having to have the consequences to themselves financially.”

There’s an implicit logic of the boss embedded in here. The way you control labor is that you don’t pay enough to ever have workers be comfortable. You keep people reliant on the boss so they never get crazy ideas in their head like using their power for positive change, for themselves or the society at large.

In the 1960s, cheap college tuition and a lower cost of living gave space to young antiwar radicals to devote themselves to sustained protest. The diminishing of higher-education support and the rise of student loans weren’t exactly responses, but it was a nice side benefit. The cleaving away of labor from productivity, the skyrocketing of inequality, the breaking of the labor movement, a federal minimum wage that hasn’t increased since the second Bush administration—this all snuffs out personal agency and the ability to speak out. Keep someone dependent on their paycheck, and their health insurance too, and you’ve put a lid on mass action.

The NBA is leading the way together, and Jared Kushner wants to keep people afraid and alone.

[Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 8-24-20]

Aisha Ahmad
@aishaismad
Aug 23

Culture
2009: 1st Black President
2010: 3 women in SCOTUS
2015: Same-sex marriage legal
2020: 1st WoC nom for VP

Federal Minimum Wage
2009: $7.25
2010: $7.25
2011: $7.25
2012: $7.25
2013: $7.25
2014: $7.25
2015: $7.25
2016: $7.25
2017: $7.25
2018: $7.25
2019: $7.25
2020: $7.25

Terminating payroll tax could end Social Security benefits in 2023, chief actuary warns
[NBC, via Naked Capitalism 8-26-20]

The Election

Open Thread

As usual, feel free to use comments for discussion of topics unrelated to recent posts.

Biden Has What It Takes to Lose

So,  Covid-19 has led to over 180K deaths so far. The economy is trash, something like a third of renters can’t make their rent, unemployment levels are at Great Depression levels, and so on.

Not all of this is entirely Trump’s fault, but he has been vastly incompetent at handling all of it, and he’s the man in charge.

Back in June, Biden had a commanding lead. Even in battleground states, his worst showing was six points ahead. On average, he was over eight points ahead.

Now?

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading President Trump in five of six battleground states…

…Biden leads Trump by six points in Florida, 50 to 44 percent, and the former vice president leads by five points in Michigan, 48 to 43 percent…

Biden is also up by four points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 48 to 44 percent and 47 to 43 percent, respectively.

The former vice president’s lead is slimmer in Arizona, where he is ahead of Trump, 45 to 44 percent.

Trump, meanwhile, holds a narrow lead over Biden in North Carolina, 48 to 47 percent.

The same survey showed Biden holding a six-point advantage over Trump at the national level, 50 to 44 percent.

Biden’s average lead in battleground states is down to about 3.2 percent from over eight percent. Back in 2016, Hillary had similar or larger leads.

Biden’s play is basically the same as Hillary’s was: left-wingers have nowhere else to go, they’ll vote for us no matter what, let’s get the suburban white centrists and Republicans who are repulsed by Trump.

Didn’t work for Clinton. I had assumed it would work for Biden, simply because Trump has reigned over absolute catastrophe, but Biden seems to have what it takes to lose.

I’m bad at predicting elections: I don’t know who’s going to win this. But so far, it’s looking a lot like a replay of 2016. Trump is definitely not out of the running.


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The Real Republican Platform

I don’t much like Frum, but he’s 100 percent right on this and it’s worth reading. Nor is it all “Republican,” some of this is shared by a lot of Democrats. I’m going to summarize, since the Atlantic has a very limited amount of free views.

1) Lower taxation is the most important economic policy.

2) Covid is no big deal. Reopen, let people die, the numbers aren’t that big.

3) Climate change is either no big deal or can be dealt with with technology, it’s not worth spending money on.

4) China is the US’s enemy, and when China loses, the US wins, and vice-versa.

5) The post-war order is dead — NATO and the WTO. The EU is a rival, Britain and Japan are subordinates; Canada, Australia and Mexico are satraps (he says dependencies).

6) You deserve as much health care as you can afford.

7) Voting is a privilege, not a right, and can be restricted.

8) Anti-black racism is BS, it’s whites and Christians and so on who are discriminated against now.

9) Abortion rights need to go. (Interestingly, he dances around this one a bit, while stating the other mostly clearly.)

10) Secret money and conflicts of interest are no big deal.

11) The border wall is good, and a long delay in granting illegal immigrants rights is good.

12) The protests should be crushed by granting police more powers. (Dances around this a bit too.)

13) Trump and his surrogates acting up on Twitter and so is just a reaction to worse excesses of his critics.

If you have free articles left at the Atlantic, this is worth reading in full. My take is that it’s accurate; this is the real Republican platform. Frum says it is kept secret because while Republicans agree, most non-Republicans don’t. Remember that there are a lot of independents and non-voters.

All of these points are more or less known, and each point has been discussed by various people in detail, but what Frum has done is put them clearly and in one place. He’s a little obscure on abortion rights, BLM, and that the US has subjects, not dependencies.

The attitude to China is shared by Democratic elites. The attitude to the EU isn’t, though the UK is understood to be a lackey and Japan is the most important US ally after the UK. Until they get serious and get their own nukes and figure out a way to deal with their oil dependency issues, they can be considered subordinates.

Canada is scared of the US, the relationship isn’t of a child to a parent (well, not a non-abusive one), it is of a servant to a master. My fellow Canadians won’t like that, but it’s true. Mexico has an even worse relationship with its “master.” As for Australia, they’ve decided the master they have is better than the other possible master, which would be China, and they’re probably right.

It is also true that Democrats generally believe in low taxes as well. They don’t believe in them quite as much, but they do believe. They aren’t taking Covid that seriously, and while they mouth off about Climate Change, they have never done anything but accelerate it. Remember that Obama/Biden vastly increased fracking and bragged about it, and that Biden’s policy platform removed the pledge to end subsidies to oil companies.

As for health care, Democrats and Republicans aren’t that far apart. Democrats want to subsidize some for the poor and middle class, but they don’t want to end the fact that the quality and amount of care one receives is primarily based on the ability to pay, and that it is a market purchase.

With respect to BLM, Biden has promised to give police more money, saying it will be spent on anti-racism training, and so on. (That’s been done before, and you see the results.) Both parties want the police to have more money, not less.

Finally, while Democrats are nowhere near as bad as Trump on corruption and secret conflicts of interest, they are bad, very bad.

Frum’s done a real service here by spelling out Republican beliefs carefully.

What’s interesting, however, is the extent to which Democrats (the ones who run the party), agree. Democratic voters sometimes don’t (they want Medicare for all — at about 80 percent now), but what they say they want really isn’t relevant when they won’t vote for it in the primaries.


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Why QAnon Resonates

QAnon posits that there is a conspiracy of pedophiles in the deep state, including celebrities, politicians, and bureaucrats who oppose Donald Trump. Supposedly, Trump is in a struggle with them.

The specific QAnon allegations have, so far, turned out to be false.

But it still resonates, and the reason why isn’t complicated.

It’s because, while it’s wrong in the specifics, it’s right in the generality.

Jeffrey Epstein ran an island where underage girls (not pre-pubescent, but below the age of consent) were procured for important men. I haven’t been able to find a full list of visitors, but a partial list includes Trump himself, Bill Clinton, Thomas Pritzker (the executive chairman of Hyatt Hotels), Kevin Spacey (unlikely to have slept with underage girls, I’d think), comedian Chris Tucker, Prince Andrew, Les Wexner (ex CEO of LBrands, worth over $7 billion), modeling executive Jean-Luc Brunel (a modeling exec, not a customer, but claimed to be a procurer), ex-New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, former Maine Senator George Mitchel, Harvard physicist Lawrence Krause, Woody Allen, Kenneth Star (attorney), and Alan Dershowitz. (Source one, Source 2.)

The current US attorney general represented Epstein in 2007 and got him a plea deal.

What’s interesting about that plea deal is that it happened because Jim Acosta, the prosecutor was told he belonged to intelligence and to leave it alone.

Sounds pretty deep state to me.

There are also strong claims that Epstein also worked for Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency.

What’s shocking about Epstein isn’t that he got away with it so long, but that with a blackmail list like the one he must have had, that he was ever taken down.

It is clear is that some of the most powerful people in the world (and the full list must be much, much longer) were in Epstein and his handlers’ power; he had the goods on them.

What also seems almost certain is that at least a part of the deep state was running Epstein and using him to blackmail important people.

Now, the idea that Donald J. “Grab Them by the Pussy” Trump is crusading against pedophiles is ludicrous. But is it far-fetched to think that many of his opponents in the deep state (and many of his supporters) are deeply dirty, and are involved in blackmailing powerful people after setting them up with underage girls?

Close to a sure thing.

QAnon is wrong on the details, wrong on the “sides,” but right that the state is deeply corrupt, deeply evil, and involved in deeply disturbing acts. And, of course intelligence agencies are blackmailing politicians–including politicians in their own countries.

As the saying goes, even paranoids have enemies, and yes, Virginia, the deep state was, in at least one case we know of, apparently protecting a ring for providing men with underage women and then (almost certainly) blackmailing them.


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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 23, 2020

by Tony Wikrent

The Pandemic

[Twitter, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 8-20-20]

Estimated cost of recent epidemics/pandemics:
SARS (2003) – $40 billion
H5N1 (2006) – $40 billion
H1N1 (2009) – $45 billion
Ebola (2014) – $55 billion
COVID-19 (2020) – $8.8 TRILLION
Investing in public health preparedness is FAR cheaper than the economic impact of a pandemic.
3:57 PM · Aug 19, 2020
15.7K

Something Remarkable Just Happened This August: How the Pandemic Has Sped Up the Passage to Postcapitalism
Yanis Varoufakis, August 22, 2020 [Lannan Foundation, via Naked Capitalism]

Following the crash of 2008, capitalism changed drastically. In their attempt to re-float the crashed financial system, central banks channelled rivers of cheap debt-money to the financial sector, in exchange for universal fiscal austerity that limited the middle and lower classes’ demand for goods and services. Unable to profit from austerity-hit consumers, corporations and financiers were hooked up to the central banks’ constant drip-feed of fictitious debt.

Every time the Fed or the European Central Bank or the Bank of England pumped more money into the commercial banks, in the hope that these monies would be lent to companies which would in turn create new jobs and product lines, the birth of the strange world we now live in came a little closer. How?

As an example, consider the following chain reaction: The European Central Bank extended new liquidity to Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank could only profit from it if it found someone to borrow this money. Dedicated to the banker’s mantra “never lend to someone who needs the money”, Deutsche Bank would never lend it to the “little people”, whose circumstances were increasingly diminished (along with their ability to repay any substantial loans), it preferred to lend it to, say, Volkswagen. But, in turn, Volkswagen executives looked at the “little people” out there and thought to themselves: “Their circumstances are diminishing, they won’t be able to afford new, high quality electric cars.” And so Volkswagen postponed crucial investments in new technologies and in new high quality jobs.

But, Volkswagen executives would have been remiss not to take the dirt-cheap loans offered by Deutsche Bank. So, they took it. And what did they do with the freshly minted ECB-monies? They used it to buy Volkswagen shares in the stock exchange. The more of those shares they bought the higher Volkswagen’s share value. And since the Volkswagen executives’ salary bonuses were linked to the company’s share value, they profited personally – while, at once, the ECB’s firepower was well and truly wasted from society’s, and indeed from industrial capitalism’s, point of view….

My difference with fellow lefties is that I do not believe there is any guarantee that what follows capitalism – let’s call it, for want of a better term, postcapitalism – will be better. It may well be utterly dystopic, judging by present phenomena. In the short term, to avoid the worst, the minimum necessary change that we need is an International Green New Deal that, beginning with a massive restructuring of public and private debts, uses public financial tools to press the oodles of existing liquidity (e.g. funds driving up money markets) into public service (e.g. a green energy revolution).

“Meatpacking Companies Dismissed Years of Warnings but Now Say Nobody Could Have Prepared for COVID-19”

[ProPublica, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 8-21-20]

“[A] ProPublica investigation has found that for more than a dozen years, critical businesses like meatpackers have been warned that a pandemic was coming. With eerie prescience, infectious disease experts and emergency planners had modeled scenarios in which a highly contagious virus would cause rampant absenteeism at processing plants, leading to food shortages and potential closures. The experts had repeatedly urged companies and government agencies to prepare for exactly the things that Smithfield’s CEO now claims were unrealistic…. Instead, the industry repeatedly expressed confidence in its ability to handle a pandemic, and when asked to plan, relied on a wait-and-see approach, records and interviews show.”

Decline of USA power

Open Thread

As usual, feel free to use the comments to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

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