The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: December 2024

The South Korean Coup Attempt

Update: Report that the President may have backed down and will cancel martial law. Amazing.

The President of South Korea has declared martial law.

The legislature voted 190 to 0 to end the martial law, which is their right under the constitution, but the President has declared it will continue and the military command has said they will not end it till he says so. Even members of the President’s own party voted to end martial law.

I’m no expert on South Korea, but what I do know that the people with the guns have the final say. Back during the Arab Spring I noted that until the Egyptian army chose its side (it wound up choosing itself) nothing had been won.

The question, then, is the high command is unified and if lower officers and the rank and file will obey orders. So far the coup hasn’t been entirely competent: the military should have never allowed the legislators into the building to take such a vote.

There are unconfirmed reports that arrest warrants have been issued for leaders of opposition parties.

South Korea is America’s second most important ally, right after Japan. It has the highest science production per capita in the world and is a major industrial power.

One of the topics on the right hand side of the blog is “the age of war and revolution”. Coups are a type of revolution. This sort of instability will continue. Some nations will re-align against the declining West, others, in the core, as the decline continues, will become more and more unstable and serious political realignments will occur. The age of neoliberal ideology is also coming to an end (Trump’s tariff threats are as anti-neoliberal as it gets) and the global economy is being upended in ways it hasn’t been since the industrial revolution, as the core moves from a Western country to China.

Be prepared for much more instability.

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About the Syrian War & Those Rebels

Let’s state the obvious bits and get them out of the way:

  • The rebels are basically Al-Qaeda;
  • They are supported by Turkey, Israel and the US;
  • The Syrian army barely fought during the initial attacks and it was very embarrassing;
  • Aleppo fell in a couple days. It may take a couple years to take it back;
  • The timing is intended to take advantage of Hezbollah’s being weakened and tied down by Israel.

Syria was losing the previous war until Hezbollah and Russia intervened. It may well lose this war if Hezbollah and/or Russia don’t send troops, but both of them have other enemies they need to worry about.

If Syria falls, Russia loses its Mediterranean naval and air bases and thus a great deal of its military reach. Hezbollah loses its main supply line to Iran.

The big mistakes that lead to this were playing footsie with Turkey/Erdogan and tolerating a frozen conflict. Syria, with Russia and Hezbollah’s support could have conquered Idlib, but Russia decided not to, leaving enemies with a foothold in Syria. Those enemies waited till the best time, then re0-openned the war.

If you’re winning a war and can win the war, then frozen conflicts are a bad idea. They remain a knife near your throat. Russia made this mistake in 2014 as well, when it could easily have fully defeated Ukraine and imposed a peace.

Hopefully they’ve learned the lesson. They do have enough reserves left to send sufficient troops to Syria. This time, win the war.

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 01, 2024

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 01, 2024

By Tony Wikrent

Jonathan Larson: A Life of Learning, Service, and Curiosity (July 17, 1949 – November 2024)

It is with profound sadness that we announce the passing of Jonathan Larson, the founder of the Real Economics blog. Jonathan’s insatiable curiosity, dedication to public service, determination to improve the human condition, and deep intellect left an indelible mark on all who knew him….

He authored Elegant Technology: Economic Prosperity from an Environmental Blueprint, a book that showcased his commitment to sustainable development and his vision for a greener future. Published in Scandinavia, the book demonstrated his global perspective and ability to inspire change across borders.

He also authored a paper on heterodox economist and scholar Thorstein Veblen, and supported and closely followed the restoration of the Veblen homestead.  Jonathan began this blog, Real Economics, to do as Veblen had — challenge and seek to supplant the failing orthodoxy of mainstream neoliberal and conservative economics….

Jonathan’s passing leaves behind a legacy of intellectual brilliance, moral courage, and unyielding dedication to the betterment of society. His life serves as a reminder that curiosity, compassion, and hard work can create a better world. Those who knew him who will forever cherish his memory.

 

Strategic Political Economy

Trump tariffs a “10 year project” to make China consume more and manufacture less.

[X-Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 11-27-2024]

[TW: The Trump regime’s goal of forcing China to “manufacture less” should be understood in the context of Thorstein Veblen’s explanation of the conflict between business and industry. Business managers and financiers dislike the uncertainty and unpredictability created by technological innovation. Rather than creating wealth through increased and less imperfect production (here, think of the Japanese concept of kaizen), business managers and financiers instead seek to acquire wealth “by a shrewd restriction of output,” causing privation and unemployment. This actually establishes and perpetuates a process of financial sabotage of industry, as Veblen explained in the first chapter of his 1921 book, The Engineers and the Price System.

[By contrast, a foreign policy based on principles of civic republicanism would seek to collaboration and cooperation with other nations to solve the most pressing problems facing humanity, such as transitioning off of fossil fuels, and ensuring universal supplies of clean water, medical care, transportation, and so on.]

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