The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Iran Hammers Tel Aviv & Israel

Just eyeballing it, but it seems that more missiles are getting thru than are intercepted.


Iran has said this is punishment for the Israeli assassinations. It has also said that it will defend Lebanon. And, as Nate pointed out, the missile attack is widespread:

 

All of Israel is covered by air alerts

Seems Israel isn’t going to have everything its own way.

Meanwhile the US has sent thousands of troops to Israel to “defend.” The US has been an active participant, for a while, as have been Germany, Britain and others, but this is a step beyond.


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Let’s make this really simple. If you’re trying to stop a genocide, you’re a hero. If you’re enabling a genocide, you’re a villain. Hezbollah and Iran have been trying to put pressure on Israel to stop their mass murder, and most of the West, with a few honorable exceptions like Ireland, have been helping them.

But what’s clear now is that if there’s a real war, it isn’t going to be one-sided. In the past the Israelis would bomb the shit out of their enemies, and be almost entirely safe. No longer. Israel’s not a large country, and Iran has plenty of missiles.

The main thing I’d want to see now (though I doubt it will happen) is for Russia to put Iran under their nuclear window: announce that use of nukes against Iran will be considered use of nukes against Russia.

This conflict, which threatens to become general war, is far from over.

Edit: initial reports of Mossad HQ being taken out appear to have been wrong. My apologies.

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39 Comments

  1. Carborundum

    Looked to me like something on the order of three or four dozen impacts, based on oblique imagery from several angles. Official statements of the IDF and US DoD to the effect that they had seen between 180 and 200 missiles launched. Based on the number of impacts, I would assess as the majority either being intercepted or otherwise not making it to target (a non-trivial number of missiles in the previous attack broke up during the ascent phase or on re-entry). IDF is saying that there were no Israeli fatalities, which would be pretty remarkable. If true, Iranian strategic deterrence has taken another real kick to the teeth.

    I would bet that the Iranians are going to eat some reasonably serious ordnance after this one. The Israelis are going to be less inclined to listen to any external calls for restraint and the external powers – having gotten a sense that the Israelis are making much more process attriting Hezbollah than they thought possible – are less likely to be offering any. I have a feeling that the major danger is going to end up being panic and inter-factional competition within Iran; seems to me like they may go non-linear.

  2. Soredemos

    The previous attack months ago was mostly a combination of drones and cruise missiles, with a few ballistic missiles. It was announced hours before and air defense had plenty of time to scramble, but still some got through to impact in places like the middles of runways.

    At the time defenders said it was merely a pointed warning, while detractors said no, that was the limit of Iranian capabilities. They couldn’t actually do any better.

    The detractors were fools, as plenty of people said at the time, and current events have removed all doubt. Iran can beat any air defense Israel possesses. It’s not even clear they used any drones or even slower missiles here to saturate the defenses. The combination of speed and terminal maneuverilability of their ballistic missiles and a possible hacking attack on the defense network allowed most of the missiles to get through.

    The copious video evidence leaves no room for doubt (there was plenty of video evidence during the previous attack as well that air defense was outright failing, but the fools insisted that wasn’t the case).

    Iranians aren’t stupid, they aren’t ignorant, they aren’t backward, and they aren’t poor. They’ve spent a lot of time and effort getting their technology to this point.

  3. Nate Wilcox

    Carborundum: What ordnance is Iran going to eat? How will it be delivered?

  4. Carborundum: What ordnance is Iran going to eat? How will it be delivered?

  5. Curt Kastens

    I thnk that it would behoove the Iranians to fire off everything that they have as fast as they can. (Use it before they loose it.) They need to target Israeli Civilian Infrastructure and US military forces in the region. They need to make life for Israelis impossible. They need to eliminate all US bases in the Persian Gulf. Then they need to pray like hell that the Chinese attack Taiwan and US bases in Japan and Korea to devert US attention from Iran.
    That’s what I would do if I were Khameni. I am not Khameni. But maybe I am the Mahdi. :>)>

  6. mago

    If you’re a Blinken, a Winken or a Nod you can claim anything, like Israel with the aid of America intercepted the majority of the missiles.
    After all, who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
    Of course there’s video evidence giving lie to the spinmeisters, but who knows?
    Not to mix metaphors or anything, but the hornet’s nest has been kicked and the powder keg’s exploded.
    And we ain’t seen nothing yet.
    Holy Krakatoa, Batman!

  7. mago

    And another thing, where’s all this serious ordnance coming from?
    Are there infinite bombs, missiles and artillery in the West’s inventory?
    With all the bombardment and carnage in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, how vast are the remaining stockpiles?
    I don’t know, but there must be a limit.
    Siempre hay límites.

  8. If you’re trying to stop a genocide, you’re a hero. If you’re enabling a genocide, you’re a villain.
    ——
    True.
    Also true is that we live in a society where:
    War is peace
    Slavery is freedom
    Ignorance is strength

    Trump or Harris becoming president cannot result in a fascist dystopian state in the same way that having sex with your pregnant wife cannot cause a pregnancy.

  9. AbsoluteCandor

    Israel attacked someone that actually has an army, a way of fighting back equally?

  10. Soredemos

    @Carborundum

    “Okay, fine, I guess some missiles got through. But they probably broke apart towards the end” is some really desperate cope.

  11. Carborundum

    That’s the $64,000 question. They conducted deep strike on a couple of largely symbolic targets last time, demonstrating that they could hit deep and take things out, including surface to air detection radar apparently without Iranian detection. My understanding is that they used standoff systems, firing from outside Iranian airspace.

    The key challenge for the Israelis is that the next step up could be a *big* step up, getting into the realm of strategic air campaigns, that I don’t know if they truly have the chops for. If I’m them, the big thing that I would be concerned about would be materially reducing Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. The difficulty with hitting them is that they are either disbursed or in hardened facilities. The logical move instead of hitting them may be what the IDF has already messaged – hitting energy and/or nuclear facilities. I tend to lean towards energy facilities as a) they are a *lot* more vulnerable, particularly to long distance standoff attacks and b) if I were in the Israelis shoes, I wouldn’t want to tip my hand about my capabilities against their nuclear targets. The Iranians are at breakout capability and being able to take that off the board on short notice is critical and may well involve one way trips for the airframes and pilots involved; unless I had indications that they were going to play that card, I wouldn’t want to launch for fear that it would cause them to rebuild in more effectively hardened facilities.

    What specific systems they’d hit energy infrastructure targets with I don’t have great insight into, but I would imagine that the number of aim points involved to cause real pain would mean committing a fair number of aircraft, likely using systems with less range than what they hit Esfahan with. What type of package that means, I don’t know – I don’t have a great sense of whether F35 has the legs for this without external tanker support. The published combat radius seems to indicate that Iranian facilities (I assume Kharg Island) can be held at threat, but I suspect they’d be on the edge here. I’d imagine that one could materially boost the range by climbing to altitude and tanking inside Israel (even better if one could cheat and tank over Saudi) or certainly by using external stores if low observability wasn’t critical early in the flight.

    Bottom line, as I say $64,000 question – the diligent reader may note from the degree of uncertainty, my insight into the Kirya’s thinking is limited.

  12. Carborundum

    To be clear, the structural failures were with the missiles used in the April attack. We don’t currently know whether any of the vehicles in the current attacks suffered failures or not. History suggests it’s a possibility and we seem to have a pretty significant discrepancy between the number of launches and the number of impacts. I have a difficult time, given what we think we know about Israeli ABM systems and how difficult hit to kill is, that successful intercepts account for the to totality of the difference.

    The number of ballistic missiles used in the previous attacks was assessed at somewhere around 100, making up about a third of the strike package. They seem to have performed significantly better than the drones and cruise missiles and don’t seem to have been greatly aided by them – reporting was that substantially all of the drones and cruise missiles were downed before entry into Israeli airspace. I suspect this explains why we didn’t see similar tactics this time. Not a lot to be gained for the resource expenditure and the Russians are paying cash on the barrelhead for those systems. I have not seen any credible assessment of warhead maneuvering, nor do the trajectories look like depressed shots. If they’re using them, they don’t seem to be exploiting their full capabilities.

  13. Revelo

    >The main thing I’d want to see now (though I doubt it will happen) is for Russia to put Iran under their nuclear window:

    Nuclear umbrellas are mostly bluff, IMO. USA umbrella over Canada and Mexico is real, as is Russian umbrella over Belarus and Kazakhstan, but that’s about it. USA will not put itself at risk for sake of Poland, let’s say, or even Britain, nor would Russia put itself at risk for Iran. USA would however use every conventional weapon at its disposal to respond to nuclear attacks by Russia on Poland and China would likely support USA in this case. Big 3 nuclear powers all have strong incentive to discourage use of nukes by other Big 3, because they all want to avoid incentivizing small countries to become nuclear armed.

    From what I have read, Iran’s overall air war attack/defense capabilities are inferior to that of Israel backed by USA and rest of NATO. USA has been waffling about letting Ukraine use missiles to strike deep into Russia, but there will be no such limits on Israel. And USA has world’s best satellite intelligence to guide those missiles. So there is the option for Israel to destroy all sorts of power plants, water purification plants, dams and other vital infrastructure in Iran. Blowing up nuclear power plants is a war crime but that won’t stop Israel since they are already guilty of other war crimes. So Iran is wise to be cautious of war with Israel.

    Main Iranian deterrent is to threaten to attack oil infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf area or even beyond. Block the straight of Hormuz, destroy oil ports, strike merchant oil tankers at sea, etc. This will send oil prices into the stratosphere, which USA doesn’t want, especially not before the November presidential election. So USA will probably force Israel to restrain itself to avoid this Iranian response.

    Russia is probably not going to get deeply involved helping Iran fight because they don’t want the global south or China to blame them for soaring oil prices (obviously, Russia benefits from high oul prices), nor do they want to be a target of Israeli terrorism. Russia and China will probably continue their existing economic and military cooperation with Iran, and offer to act as mediators and peace makers, but they won’t join any war.

  14. Curt Kastens

    it does not appear to me that the leadership of Iran realizes that it is now in a war in which not only the rule of the Islamic Regime is at stake but the exsitence of the Iranian people is at stake. Therefore the Iranian military is justified in fighting like there is no tommorrow.
    Despite all of his hot air Erdogon is showing which side he is really on. The leadership of Egypt and Saudi Arabia are proving that they are still owned lock stock and barrel by the Americans as well.

  15. Anonymous

    The Iranians already stated in no uncertain terms that if Israel hits their energy facilities, Iran will hit oil production capacity in the Gulf Arab states. They also stated that if Israel hits back, the next strike will be bigger and more impactful.

    I wouldn’t assume that Iran’s air defense is worse than Israeli one. Yes, for coverage against small slow missiles and drones, Iron dome has better coverage given the amount of money lavished to cover a small area. But Iran has months (since the clear failure of their initial deterrence effort resulting in the Haniyeh assassination) to get superior Russian air defense tech to cover key areas and against aircrafts that would likely carry the really big bombs. The US military satellite coverage is extensive, but the Ukraine front show that electronic warfare techniques show that they can be effectively jammed. Iran is not Lebanon or Gaza that’s not allowed to have any air defense system,

    This strike is more impactful than the previous strike, but gave sufficient warning to evacuate the sites and minimize casualties, so Iranians are still trying to give the Israelis a chance to deescalate and save face. Will they take it and also take the chance to get it off the Lebanese quagmire they just had to get into? It’s possible if somewhat cooler heads in Pentagon and IOF comes out on top.

    However, the slow and measured ratcheting during the past year already built consensus within the non-western stakeholders that there’s no alternative but a destructive regional war to drive out Israel and its imperialist backer, and now unmask the comprador regimes in the region for what they are.

    Don’t overestimate Israel’s strength. Israel can rain death from the sky against civilians using American bombs, intelligence, and likely pilots (as Laith Maruth noted, Israel doesn’t have enough planes to fly the number of sorties that it has done in the past week against Lebanon). But it hasn’t defeated isolated and hungry Hamas after 362 days.

  16. Anonymous

    One under reported target of Iranian attack is against Israel’s offshore gas platform. This is a major source of cheap energy for Israel and a big chunk of the EU’s strategy to ween itself off of Russian gas. Now it’s gone and won’t be replaced until there’s a ceasefire. Israel’s electricity generation is still heavily dependent on coal, previously from Russia and then Colombia and South Africa, Colombia has stopped the coal exports and I assume they’re now buying expensive coal on the secondary market from Turkey or India. The oil is about half Azeri oil that Erdogan continues to slow to transit through Turkey to the great anger of the Turkish citizenry. A good chunk of the rest is stolen Syrian oil sold by the Kurds, who are now fought off by the now Assad aligned tribes. Small quantities can be brought over by tankers or trucks, but those supply lines are threatened by BDS, Houthis and Iraqi resistance, and increasingly Palestinian resistance outside of Gaza.

    Looking at other economic indicators. Israel has taken on a massive amount of debt, more than any small country can realistically pay off. Even though much of these bonds are backed by the US government, the rating agencies have put its rating just one notch above junk bond. Israeli tech is now an abomination associated with the beeper attacks. BDS movement, although viciously suppressed in the West, had gone from boycott of things made in the occupied territory to anything remotely linked to Israel. Small businesses are going bankrupt and even big corporations are dealing with huge disruptions from mobilization of reservists and banning of Palestinian workers.

    According to Shir Hever, the Israelis themselves have no hope for the economic future of their country and are moving their investments/persons out. This is the portion of the population​ with the money and capability to keep a society running. Without them all you have are a bunch of feral settlers who think land stealing is a viable long term economic model. It likely has tens of thousands of significantly disabled vets who will need life long support and cannot fully contribute economically. Think homeless Vietnam vets in the eighties and nineties, times ten or twenty.

    Israel is done. The only question is who it’ll brutalize along the way.

  17. Mark Pontin

    Revelo: ‘From what I have read, Iran’s overall air war attack/defense capabilities are inferior to that of Israel backed by USA and rest of NATO.’

    Revelo and nobody else here seems to be factoring in that large Russian military air transports have been constantly flying into Iran and flying out for at least the last four months.

    One would therefore expect the Iranians to have taken delivery of and have installed Russian S-300 and, probably, S-400 air defense systems, which are superior to Western equivalents like Patriots or anything Israel has, as well as Russian EW systems, which are more capable than anything the US possesses. One would also rate as probable that the Russians have transferred some of their offensive missile capability, including their hypersonics.

    Iran has a relative lack of fifth-generation fighter planes, which the F-35 putatively is. But: –
    Firstly, given the prevalence and dominance of missile technology, in 2024 manned fighter vs manned fighter combat arguably belongs to the same category of no-longer-relevantant military history as manned tank vs. manned tank battles now seem to be, based on Ukraine;
    Secondly, the F-35 is a piece of overpriced, over-engineered, unreliable junk.
    Thirdly, the Russians might just have transferred some of their Sukhoi-53s to the Iranians.

    Here are the specs on the Su-57 —
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-57#Specifications_(Su-57)
    Here are the F-35’s —
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II#Specifications_(F-35A)

    I once heard a F-35 pilot reduced to claiming that while the F-35 has lesser flight capabilities than the Su-53, its standoff capabilities were superior to the Russian plane’s. But that’s not going to be true, given what we now know about Russian EW capabilities.

    More generally, in history quite a few instances exist of nations and cultures blindly continuing to assume their military superiority long after that superiority’s historical moment is over: the Islamic world’s shock at Napoleon’s army’s conquest of Egypt is one example that always comes to mind, because they were three centuries late in that realization.

    (And, more ironically, the British turned up shortly after, formed an alliance with the Ottomans, and beat Napoleon’s army so handily that the remains of Napoleon’s troops had to be repatriated to France in British ships.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Alexandria_(1801))

    I bring all this up because the assumption in the West is that US military kit is superior to Russian kit. Except in the areas of nuclear submarine technology and orbital oversight by satellite, that’s largely no longer true and Russian kit is superior, especially in the realms of missile and EW technology.

    So Israeli strikes on Iran are going to be interesting. We’ll see.

  18. Tallifer

    The internet these days allows all kinds of alternate facts. For example, the Guardian, New York Times, Washington Post, Politico and Atlantic all state that Israel and its allies blocked most of the Iranian missiles:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/iran-israel-war-lebanon/680114/

  19. Purple Library Guy

    A war between Iran and Israel would obviously be bad for both of them, and both have strong reasons to avoid one. But, they’re also both at that “refuse to retaliate and look weak” place, along with, in the case of Iran “Seems like Israel is just going to keep on escalating so what the hell.”

    I think it’s true that as Revolo says, “Iran’s overall air war attack/defense capabilities are inferior to that of Israel backed by USA and rest of NATO”. However, a couple of caveats there: First, I’d say Israel’s capacity leans more towards planes with bombs, Iran’s more towards missiles. And the problem with planes is every time you send some out, air defences could kill them. Then they can’t go out again. Second, Iran is just a much bigger place than Israel. Iran can disperse its stuff a LOT better. If Israel successfully drops twice as much ordnance on Iran as the reverse . . . Israel loses.

    Meanwhile, Israel is going to also be fighting Hezbollah. And, NATO will continue to be distracted somewhat by the war in Ukraine . . . which is going worse and worse for Ukraine. Russia just took Vuhledar. It’s a place with a bit of importance, but for me the point is, Russia tried several times before, and the Ukrainians cleaned their clocks every time, because it’s a very strong point. A general got sacked over it. The same unit was still there defending it, but this time the Russians took the place in days, couple of weeks if you count some preparatory flanking moves, as far as I can make out without taking that many casualties. Sure, they played it smarter this time, but still . . . if they can take that place in a short time without too much trouble, it says some serious things about how much gas the Ukrainians have left in the tank. And if that war ENDS, Russia can start paying attention to the Middle East.

    I don’t think anyone is really going to be able to brag about the outcome of all this. It’s going to be ugly and a lot of innocent people are going to die. I really wish things had not boiled over for just a few more years . . . by 2030 the Middle East will be significantly less important in world politics, as the energy transition hits its stride and oil demand drops. We could have ended up with a situation where Israel thought about doing something ruthless, went to the US for backup and the US said “We don’t care–don’t need an unsinkable aircraft carrier in that shithole any more.”

  20. Mark Level

    I’m very appreciative of this site at this time, it is one of very, very FEW one can go to for actual, vetted info instead of the Narrative Spin from the MIC that dominates the Media space in the West. I think the last 3 posts by Ian have been really substantial, because we seemed to shift from the preliminary levels of the West-ignited (or stumbled into?) WW III, with possible global annihilation at stake.

    I too wish Russia would more proactively contribute to the Axis of Resistance against the Axis of Evil, but they do things their own way, obviously. As to my concerns that Iran would never get off the pot and into the game, that seems to be assuaged. Nuttinyahoo kept poking at the Muslim world & piling on the atrocities, even that prior ineffective new leader, Pezeshkian, who seemed so cowardly & wanting to “compromise” with the US-Israel genocide machine has been forced to get off the pot & into the game.

    I’ll agree with Curt K. (last comment up as I post) & add more. Everyone knows Erdogan, Egypt, & Saudia Arabia are worthless & led by pro-West flunkies. I kind of expect the sellout (half-British) ruler of Jordan will see his days numbered soon, certainly hope the same for al-Sissi & the Saudis eventually. I had to laugh when Jordan’s king explained his collusion with Israel, “If anyone would send missiles over our airspace to hit another, we’d knock them down” in this case on Israel’s behalf. Does this apply if the Izzys are sending missiles over Jordan to murder Lebanese or Syrians, their fellow Arabs, or even to their (somewhat) co-religionists in Iran? Clearly not, sadly No!!

    Among all the bluffing & projection, I’m starting to wonder if with the upcoming one year anniversary of Israel’s starvation & genocide, we will see a widening revolt against these sellouts on the “Arab Street”? I honestly don’t know the certainty, but the odds that there will be a repeat of c. 2011 becomes likelier the more outrages Israel causes, while Blinky & pals stand aside and arms and supports Israeli atrocities, pretending to “work 24 hours a day” (an absurd Kamala-Biden claim) to NOT have any cease fire, & pursue the genocide to the end.

  21. Carborundum

    I don’t think there’s a very high probability that Mossad headquarters was “levelled”. The complex that it is in is huge (it includes quite a lot of space devoted to other intelligence organizations, notably Unit 8200).

    Imagery circulating on Twitter shows a missile impact that looks like it was about 250 metres north of the north boundary of the main compound, but other imagery seems to show that that missile came in some distance from a string of the missiles.

    This imagery shows an impact that I think is at about 32.147459° N 34.807482° E

    https://x.com/oftheroyalblood/status/1841200888079069434

    This is said to show the same impact from another angle – looks to me like it was some distance from the other missiles, which I think were going after Tel Nof.

    https://x.com/oftheroyalblood/status/1841200107112341662

    The first ten minutes of this gives a decent perspective overview of the Tel Aviv attacks, shot from just south of the Tel Aviv Hilton.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvlFuTMT4UI

  22. Ian Welsh

    Most probably a lot of missiles were stopped before getting close. But quite a lot got thru, we’ve got multiple videos of hits at multiple sites and many hits.

  23. Mark Level

    Hey, Tallifer– I clearly recall all the “experts” you quoted a year (or even more?) back about how Ukraine would wipe the floor with the weak, cowardly, ignorant Russians. How’d that turn out? Are you aware that nearly everyone with any expertise (and even neighbors like Germany) now know that Ukraine has lost the war, & that at this point it’s only a matter of time until Russia decides to take the 4 Russian-speaking oblasts (like Crimea) permanently.

    Hopium & spin from the serial liars at the NYT, Guardian etc. only go so far. How many wars has the US won against “weaker” opponents? Not Vietnam, Korean peninsula a stalemate, not Syria, Iraq still occupied but little US influence, “stone age” level Afghanistan drove the US out after over 20 years . . . okay, I’ll grant you Gulf War I (by Bush Sr.) & Grenada. I mean okay, the Hillary coup ousted Qadafi and then created a tripartite state run by Warlords in Libya. Perhaps you consider that a “success” but most fair onlookers wouldn’t. And we’ve couped any Haitian leadership that cared about their people at all and made the place poorer & more miserable, to most decent people that doesn’t seem to be positive. 60 years of sanctions & blockades against Cuba, & it still stands, independent. Venezuala is recovering & the sham “President” Guaido is now a college instructor in Florida. How many other “wins” does the US have– what have I missed?

    At some point we need to be facts & evidence based. We have very little in common politically, but I would imagine that you, like me, believe in the evidence for human-driven Climate Change which something like 95% of the scientific community supports . . .

    It’s clear where your values lie, & those are very different than mine. You clearly support neo-Imperialism, Neoliberal Austerity and endless wars. But again, having been so massively wrong about Russia v. Ukraine, why should the majority (or any) commenters at this site take your prognostications of Israeli victory seriously?

    Also, in case you deign to reply, if the Israelis do “win” & exterminate or drive out over 2 million Palestinians, & kill millions more in the region, do you think the rest of the world will accept that and just go on tolerating “leadership” by the likes of USA, the decaying European imperial powers & the apartheid state of Israel? I don’t expect you to answer, but am very interested in case you would.

    Colonial wars succeed until they fall apart. The US cannot sustain the 3 wars posited by Sullivan & Blinken, against Russia & the Palestinians now, & against China next year (announced as early as 2017 by the DoD.) There is an endgame, but it’s not going to be what you imagine.

  24. Altandmain

    @Carborundum

    Based on the data, it appears most of the missiles intended got through. The goal of Iran was always saturation – some of the missiles are decoys. This is part of the strategy (it’s also a part of any nuclear strategy – many of the “warheads” are decoys and any conventional bombardment, such as the Russian missile strikes on Ukraine, where decoys were extensively used).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Se0CIREENys

    Many of the missiles fired are decoys – their goal is to force enemy air defense to consume and intercept them.

    Israel appears to have resorted to covering up the extent of the damage.
    https://x.com/squatsons/status/1841548683566821424

    It’s also become apparent that the US poured quite a few resources:
    https://x.com/imetatronink/status/1841285332706394371

    This failure is as much a failure of the US systems as much as it is Israel – note that the SM-3 is the best anti-aircraft missile the US has and is a limited production run system. There are THAAD batteries, US troops, and Navy ships in the area.

    Keep in mind that earlier this year, when Iran sent its warning strike a lot of the drones sent were data collection drones. They’ve had months to study the way the US and Israeli air defenses work, then come up with a firing solution to breach it.

    —-

    There’s another bigger issue. The Iranians likely didn’t use their best missiles. If the Israelis don’t get the message of standing down, future strikes are likely to result in these being used.

    Israel has only limited means to retaliate – they need US refueling tanker support for their fighters. They do have Jericho missiles, but those are in small numbers and the danger is if the Israelis use nuclear weapons, then that could easily invite retaliation.

  25. Carborundum

    A lot of missiles definitely did get through, but there don’t seem to have been many hitting around Mossad (to the North [left] of where the overview video was shot). That video shows something on the order of seven or eight vehicles coming in, three which look to have gone long, two which look to have hit right around the Mossad complex and two or three that we can’t tell where they went. There is geolocated imagery showing two hits outside the compound, but nothing indicating hits on the campus. Unless other evidence comes to light, I would assess as a miss and certainly far from destruction of a target that large. The video circulating on Twitter with all the brush being cleared away billed as Mossad destruction looks to have come from the hit that damaged all the houses, well to the east.

    Broadly, the Iranian attributed claims circulating on Twitter look to me to be significantly inflated. They’re claiming they put entire airfields out of action, destroying tens of aircraft. These warheads are digging craters somewhere around 40-50 feet wide and 20 feet deep in soil. The means that unless they basically centre punch a HAS, the aircraft inside it will be just fine. They can definitely do damage, and I’m sure they have, but at this scale the notion that they’re going to knock an entire IAF airfield out of operation without precision terminal guidance (which they don’t seem to have or haven’t used) just doesn’t ring true.

  26. Carborundum

    @Altandmain – I would not asses this as most missiles getting through. It looks to me like up to about a quarter, maybe a smidge more depending on how one interprets some of what look like partial intercepts, might have gotten through – assuming we’ve got an accurate count of the number of launches.

    Where have you seen the use of decoys and collection drones reported? I’ve seen nothing, but would welcome any additional sources.

    I concur that the Iranians haven’t used their best systems. They have, however, used their workhorse systems – they aren’t their old junk and they are systems they have in quantity. They don’t have very many examples [yet] of their top end stuff – if we see that stuff deployed, it will tell us something.

    The IAF is cagey about their tanker assets. They have been assessed at various points as possessing between four and seven KC-135-equivalent refuelling aircraft. They’re quite old systems now and due to be replaced with KC-46s (assuming they get the bugs worked out), but they are definitely still in the system and being used to support deep strike. All of this a long-winded way of saying that the IAF is not entirely dependent on USAF tanker support. Relatedly, I guess we should not completely dismiss the possibility of striking Iran and then recovering somewhere like al-Udeid. It seems unlikely but people have this pronounced tendency to do things that are, to the external observer, quite surprising.

  27. Carborundum

    A really interesting view of Iranian vehicles in flight, shot looking West from Amman. (I think probably from somewhere in Eastern Amman.)

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1841589587522576467

    Useful because it gives us some idea where the main thrusts of the attack were. I think the stuff furthest to the right was the attack on the Mossad campus and the stuff next to it was going after the Kirya. The stuff on the furthest left looks to have been going after Nevatim and Hatzerim. The main focus seems to have been Tel Nof, with maybe a little servicing of Palmachim for good measure. Potentially they could go have also been going after Sdot Micha (Jericho missile base), but that would be extremely ballsy and likely to provoke an over-response.

    This is significant because the impact imagery circulating so far shows pretty inconsequential damage to Nevatim, over in the transport part of the field (probably the most militarily significant thing there would be the mid-air refueling aircraft). What we haven’t yet seen is any indication of what the hits were at more heavily serviced targets likeTel Nof.

  28. Curt Kastens

    It makes no sense to me that the Iranians have not already launched another wave of attacks. Israel has broadcast its intentions to attack Iran. That gives Iran a very good justification to launch preemptive strikes all over the middle east.

  29. Soredemos

    Funny. I very distinctly recall that the same people who claimed the attack earlier this year was a nothingburger and represented the limits of Iranian capabilities also scoffing at any notions that part of the point of the attack was information gathering and learning about the distribution and capabilities of the Israeli (and allied) defense infrastructure. And yet here we are.

  30. Dan Kelly

    …scoffing at any notions that part of the point of the attack was information gathering and learning about the distribution and capabilities of the Israeli (and allied) defense infrastructure

    Not everyone.

    Israel and its lackey the United States have excellent intel and surveillance abilities. In fact, the point was made above that that is the only thing they have anymore that is superior to Russia – Russian weapons are better, and Iran has these weapons.

    Now, Israel attacked Iran obviously knowing Iran would respond.

    So, ‘the point of the attack was information gathering and learning about the distribution and capabilities of the Israeli (and allied) defense infrastructure’ is true.

    And it’s in turn true that Israel and allies are then ‘gathering and learning about the distribution and capabilities of the Iranian (and allied) offense and its infrastructure and what have you.

    I mean, do we think that Israel and allies went ahead with the invasion they’d been planning for months…and then just sat back and smoked a doobie?

    They are gathering intel all the time. Obviously.

    —————————-

    Naked Capitalism commenter Louis Fyne brought up an excellent point yesterday. He suggested that ‘if Iran was serious about deterrence and/or fighting Israel for the long haul, the main target of the missiles should have been radar sites and related air defense facilities.’

    This is in keeping with what we are talking about vis-a-vis surveillance abilities (which are part and parcel of overall intelligence gathering).

    Prior to this point being made, Louis indicated that he thought the F-35 destruction meme arose from a different source. He said he wasn’t trying to be a jerk, rather was just giving some info on another possible etymology.

    I bring all this up not because I know the true source, nor how many, if any, were actually destroyed. I bring this up because I am curious about the sources that Yves used to definitively end the conversation (Louis Fyne hasn’t offered a response to Yves).

    I have provided two links here. The first is the beginning of the conversation:

    https://archive.ph/6G5fe#selection-4101.0-4101.10

    Although you can just scroll down, I include this here for convenience. This is where Yves gives her sources – which I am going to get to – and then ends with a subtle personal denigration accusing someone of denigrating their sources, when in fact Louis Fyne did no such thing.

    ‘So do not denigrate our posts and assert we have poor sourcing when a mere internet search shows the reverse.’

    https://archive.ph/6G5fe#selection-4281.0-4281.4

    I am going to use a line break here and then continue the source breakdown. I will also show you more authentic sources from Azerbajain.

    ————————–

    So, Yves began by saying, ‘We first heard it from Larry Wilkerson on Nima, who when he says that he heard something, it’s from contacts, not Twitter.’

    So, Larry Wilkerson’s contacts via Nima. Fair enough. I’m not going to argue with the Colonel.

    Twitter, incidentally, is widespread on Naked Capitalism.

    Yves then continues:

    ‘And the Azerbaijan state news agency, APA.az, said Iran made the claim: https://en.apa.az/asia/iran-hit-israels-20-f-35-jets-449919

    APA.az is the Azerbaijan state news agency, Yves?

    Let’s see. As Yves suggested, a mere internet search should suffice. Wikipedia isn’t exactly a wholly reliable source, but then what is? That’s why we use our brains.

    That said, Wikipedia is fine for this simple exercise. Here are the print media in Azerbaijan:

    https://archive.ph/UB0q2#selection-2719.0-2719.11

    It says:

    ‘There are 3500 publication titles formally registered in Azerbaijan. The vast majority of them are published in Azerbaijani. The remaining 130 are published in Russian (70), English[10](50) and other languages (Turkish, French, German, Arabic, Persian, Armenian, etc.)

    Registered daily newspapers are more than 30. The most widely read are the critical Yeni Müsavat (qəzet) and Azadliq papers. In May 2014 Zerkalo gave up on print publications due to financial losses.

    Azerbaijani newspapers can be split into more serious-minded newspapers, usually referred to as broadsheets due to their large size, and sometimes known collectively as “the quality press.”‘

    This is all critical information.

    It’s also really interesting. It’s the cultural, historical, and social realm. The kind of stuff I thought Naked Capitalism and its readership love, and that it certainly shines at in other areas when it wants to.

    But again, it begins with the fact that this is obviously where one would in fact begin.

    Now, about that state agency? Let’s do both a google search and a yandex search:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=Azerbaijan+state+news

    Google tells me this is the Azerbaijan State News Agency:

    https://azertag.az/en/

    Now Yandex:

    https://yandex.com/search/?text=Azerbaijan+state+news&lr=29643&search_source=yacom_desktop_common

    Yandex’ first result is to google itself. It’s second result is to what appears to be the same Azerbaijan State News Agency. Interestingly, it’s third result is to this site:

    https://news.az/

    If you scroll through that site you’ll see that it is quite Israel-centric.

    How about the site that Yves linked to? It is nowhere to be found on the Wikipedia page of all current and historical Azerbaijan media.

    I went to the site itself. It’s bizarre:

    ‘APA GROUP LLC has been organized with a combination of several media structures and structural subsidiaries.

    The purpose is to create a unified media structure, to achieve operational, flexible, coordinated activities of media organizations included in this structure.’

    And this:

    ‘The agency provides an opportunity for specialists and experts to be known, to get acquainted with the views of the media and diplomatic circles. Specialists and experts can place their permanent blog in the “APA Blog” section of the agency`s website. All the terms of cooperation within the blog are reflected on the site.’

    Hmm. Specialists and experts from diplomatic circles? Terms of cooperation? Doesn’t sound much like journalism to me. In fact, aren’t journalists supposed to be questioning and fact-checking what comes out of these cirlces?

    ‘The agency issues online news in Azerbaijani, Russian, English, French and Arabic. The agency’s expert group composed of famous political scientists prepares analyses commissioned by outstanding research centers and diplomatic corps.’

    APA, which is known in the international arena and quoted by the leading media outlets of the world, is one of the biggest and most reliable media companies of the region.

    According to the international rating lists, APA is the most quoted and read information agency in Azerbaijan.’

    So, it’s own ‘interational rating lists’ let everyone know that it is the most quoted and read paper in Azerbaijan, a paper which is broadcasting to its readers the opinions of the ‘agency’s expert group composed of famous political scientists prepares analyses commissioned by outstanding research centers and diplomatic corps.’

    Again, this isn’t anything approaching journalism. This is a sad pathetic joke.

    The entire site screams military/intel. It’s a propaganda outlet somewhat akin to Katz’ SITE intelligence, though that’s not a great analogy. But the fact remains it is clearly manufactured propaganda.

    Please let Yves know.

    ————————————–

    Here is an article from what Wikipedia described as the ‘critical’ Yeni Müsavat (qəzet) and its yandex translation, which doesn’t appear to be very good:

    https://www.musavat.com/news/mossad-dan-xameneyiye-sok-tehdid-sonuncu-cume-namazini-qilacaq_1107120.html

    https://translated.turbopages.org/proxy_u/az-en.en.404a8e0e-66ff3fd8-cf5d5de9-74722d776562/https/www.musavat.com/news/mossad-dan-xameneyiye-sok-tehdid-sonuncu-cume-namazini-qilacaq_1107120.html

    https://www.musavat.com/

    https://www.azadliq.info/

  31. Carborundum

    What are the things that the Iranians are supposed to have learned from the previous attack that make that performance less of a big bag of fail? The couple that I can think of are launch more vehicles, launch with less warning, launch vehicles that don’t fall apart quite as much, and don’t bother with drones and cruise missiles. The challenge is those all seem kind of obvious – what are the clever things they learned from the previous attack that made this one so much better?

  32. Dan Kelly

    The purpose is to create a unified media structure, to achieve operational, flexible, coordinated activities of media organizations included in this structure.

    A unifed media structure? This is akin to what they did in the United States, going from close to 100 media companies ‘unified’ down to 5.

    “Operational’ coordinated activities within a tight-knit structure is military-speak.

    This is a propaganda mouthpiece.

    I imgine they would like to destroy all the media that is listed on that Wikipedia page. Notice the third leadng news site had to close due to financial losses.

    ———————————

    Here is more from apa.az, which is NOT the Azerbaijan State News Agency.

    Once again, the Azerbaijan State News Agency is here: https://azertag.az/en/

    Found by doing this:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=azerbaijan+state+news

    Yandex returns different results seemingly every time, though google has been first every time I’ve searched:

    https://yandex.com/search/?text=azerbaijan+state+news&lr=29643&search_source=yacom_desktop_common

    DuckDuckGo:

    https://duckduckgo.com/?t=h_&q=Azerbaijan+State+News+Agency+&ia=web

    Here are a couple apa.az articles:

    https://en.apa.az/asia/israel-reports-casualties-for-the-first-time-since-the-fighting-in-lebanon-began-450093

    The article simply quotes The Times of Israel. Notice the Israeli flag prominently displayed behind the soldiers.

    Here’s what comes up if you put ‘Palestine’ in the apa.az website search bar:

    https://en.apa.az/search-result?search=palestine

    It’s just a collection of bland news reports from various countries.

    A reaction to the missle strike from Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, sourced from Mehr. Israel says this. A UN agency warns that things are dire in Gaza…

    There is nothing substantive here. At all.

    ——————————-

    ‘And Military Watch, which is the antithesis of a friend of the Resistance and does not go out on limbs very much.’

    Military Watch was started by Kings College graduate Abraham Ait-Tahar:

    ‘Our Director and Chief Editor Abraham Ait is a graduate of King’s College London specialising in military affairs.’

    https://militarywatchmagazine.com/about_us

    https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/persons/abraham-ait-tahar

    https://muckrack.com/abraham-ait/articles

    Back in April 2021 Alan Macleod wrote an article about Kings College London for Mint Press News entitled ‘The School for Spooks: The London University Churning Out NATO Spies:

    ‘Last week, MintPress exposed how the supposedly independent investigative collective Bellingcat is, in fact, funded by a CIA cutout organization and filled with former spies and state intelligence operatives. However, one part of the story that has remained untold until now is Bellingcat’s close ties to the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, an institution with deep links to the British security state and one that trains a large number of British, American and European agents and defense analysts.’

    https://www.mintpressnews.com/school-for-spooks-kings-college-war-studies-churning-out-nato-spies/276736/

    Here is a fascinating reddit post from six years ago (a year after Military Watch dropped) with some more info. These guys all think Military Watch is Russian propaganda:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/9bkcfo/how_credible_or_noncredible_is_military_watch/?rdt=48937

    So we now have a situation where an outlet founded/run by a Kings College spook is being presented as a good source by Yves et al because they are ‘the antithesis of a friend of the Resistance’ although we aren’t told why – the backgroud that I just spent some time looking into doesn’t seem to matter to NakedCapitalism.

    Yet this same source is seen as Russian propaganda, or something along those lines. by others.

    This would all be in the interest of a ‘supra-national’ deep state apparatus working in unison globally, akin to the BS right-left divide in the United States (and everywhere).

    It’s a faux binary.

    ‘and does not go out on limbs very much.’

    Uh oh:

    https://militarywatchmagazine.com/video/russian-air-force-vs-us-air-force-summary-global-war

  33. Dan Kelly

    Notice the Israeli flag prominently displayed behind the soldiers.

    There are other countries’ flags displayed prominently in correspinding articles, so this isn’t a particularly valid point on its face.

    It’s interesting that the one article that has a picture of the Palestine flag is an article entitled ‘Armenia, Palestine sign document on establishment of diplomatic relations’ which is another bland info drop, this one sourced from Sputnik-Armenia.

    Armenia is both a NATO member and a member of the CSTO which is a military alliance with Russia. It also participates in the Joint CIS Air Defense System with Russia.

    How does that work exactly? I mean, Russia et al and NATO et al are sworm enemies. All we hear all day and all night long…here, there and everywhere..is about irreconciable differences between the two that will lead to nuclear annililation.

    We would need to know a lot more about the inner workings of these organizations to have any idea what in fact is going on.

    We could speculate that this might lead to another exciting Mearsheimer talk on the deep state. Did you catch that one the other day?

    Did you learn anything?

    I’ll tell you what you were subjected to, if you’ll allow me: You were given the good old bait-and-switch.

    They went through all the usual nonsense that anybody paying attention is already familar with.

    They didn’t talk at all about, say, Abu Nidal. Didn’t mention Jeff Epstein! Didn’t talk about Diddy nor Hugh Hefner nor Hollywood and its cameras and sex-violence and bribery. No mention of the Franklin Scandal. They didn’t dare talk about 9/11.

    They did manage to rebrand the deep state as ‘the bowels of the Pentagon,’

    The bowels of the Pentagon? What the hell does that tell us? Who is in the bowels of the Pentagon? What are they doing there?

    Do they relieve themselves through the ass of the Pentagon?

    This has all become very stupid for anyone with half-a-brain.

    But…wait just a minute here. I have to imagine someone will emerge from Kings College London to clear the air.

    Keep comin!

  34. Carborundum

    Finally some decent wide area imagery of the impacts at Nevatim:

    https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1841985294368964944

    More detailed interpretation here:

    https://horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2024/10/04/imint-irans-strike-on-nevatim-airbase/

    They’re assessing 32 hits (materially more than I counted from the various videos – clearly some hits not captured), significantly including a few in the F-35 basing area close to aircraft shelters. Overall, not much indication of damage – again, hardened airfields are tough to take out of action.

  35. Ian Welsh

    Thirty two hits is a lot. Guess next time they need to send even more missiles and more with bigger payloads.

  36. Thirty two hits is a lot. Guess next time they need to send even more missiles and more with bigger payloads.

  37. Dan Kelly

    Guess next time they need to send even more missiles and more with bigger payloads.

    And Israel won’t respond with nukes?

    Because you said previously that ‘I believe Israel can be defeated conventionally, the problem is their nukes.’

    ‘https://www.ianwelsh.net/consequences-of-the-israeli-pager-explosions-attack/#comment-154365

    You went on to speculate, ‘This is why, I suspect, the Resistance is using a strategy of constant pressure.’

    Understood.

    ‘There are hundreds of thousands of internal refugees.’

    In Gaza, the West Bank, and now increasingly inside Lebanon.

    I know, because I’ve seen those pictures and they are very believable.

    I’ve seen absolutely no evidence of same inside Israel. Some (not hundreds of thousands) of very well-cared for at the world’s expense ‘settlers’ have had their lives upended a bit, but they have the full protection of The Jewish State of Israel and its world lackeys.

    How many people inside Israel have been killed so far in this slow war of attrition?

    How many Palestinians and Lebanese and Iranian leaders and and and…..

    the economy is in trouble

    Yes.

    So are many/most economies around the world. We the people are in bad shape economically everywhere it seems. Some worse than others, for sure.

    ——————————-

    Zionist Joe Biden of course says he doesn’t think there will be a larger war:

    ‘Joe Biden says he does not believe there will be ‘all-out war’ in Middle East.’

    Zionist Donald Trump says:

    ‘I think he’s got that one wrong. Isn’t that what you’re supposed to hit? I mean, it’s the biggest risk we have, nuclear weapons. When they asked him that question, the answer should have been, hit the nuclear first, and worry about the rest later. If they’re going to do it, they’re going to do it. But we’ll find out whatever their plans are.’

    Both candidates are engaging in strategic ambiguity at the behest of their masters.

    Joe Biden actually said in response to the question about targeting nukes:

    ‘If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields.’

    He responded to a question about nukes with ‘oil fields.’ That still leaves the nuclear sites open for targeting.

    Biden’s a demented psychopath, but I bet he knows exactly what he’s doing here. No slip of the tongue vis-a-vis Israel. Even an advanced alzheimer’s patient will have sudden moments of clarity when the Zionist money and power master calls.

    Trump then rephrases the entire thing, as he is wont to do, by suggesting that Biden did in fact say ‘don’t hit the nukes’ when in fact Biden said oil fields, leaving the option of a nuclear strike on Iran wide open. Just as the Zionists desire.

    Trump then immediately says that the nukes should be hit first. Questions later.

    Please tell IM DOC. He may have to volunteer his time to do surgery on the radiated masses of Iran.

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/04/politics/state-department-israel-no-assurances-irans-nuclear-facilities/index.html

    https://archive.ph/PywWO

    ——————————–

    This is why Arnie Milchan, Jonny Pollard et al stole the US nuclear know-how and the materials needed for the bomb.

    https://irmep.com/2012/07/netanyahu-worked-inside-nuclear-smuggling-ring/

    ‘Milchan was acting for Israel’s now defunct Bureau of Scientific Relations, known as Lekem. The clandestine bureau focused on obtaining information for secret defense programs that reputedly included Israel’s rumored nuclear weapons research and development program. The bureau was disbanded in 1987 after US Navy specialist Jonathan Pollard was caught spying for Israel.’

    https://archive.ph/g97va#selection-1211.184-1211.555

    https://irmep.com/2012/07/netanyahu-worked-inside-nuclear-smuggling-ring/

    https://www.military.com/history/jonathan-pollard-was-one-of-most-damaging-spies-us-history.html

    ————————————–

    A little closer to home:

    https://x.com/Grossman4NJ/status/1796192151946039504

    https://www.jonathanpollard.org/pollards_list.htm

    https://archive.ph/M364o#selection-1061.0-1061.101 *

    *Jeff Van Drew was a dem who switched to repub when he saw where his constituents were leaning. They were leaning this way because the economy sucks, not because they necessarily give a fuck about Israel (although there is a large Jewish population here).

    The switch was a big deal down here. Dems contested it. Van Drew ultimately switched parties and won as a repub.

    He’s as owned as everyone else.

    ————————————-

    Many people in these circles are sure it is really the US in charge. Iran recently seems convinced of this too (witness Nasrallah’s statements), though that wasn’t always the case. I will return to that later.

    I personally believe the US is occupied by Israel and Zionism. This is very easily illustrated.

    However, I think we can all agree that at absolute minimum this is obviously the game of strategic ambiguity.

    My question is this: To what end does it ultimately matter if you’re on the receiving end of Israel’s largely US-supplied nukes?

    The Zionist-occupied US may be paying the bulk share and building most of them, but they sure as hell don’t have to persuade Israel to use them.

  38. Dan Kelly

    To what end does it ultimately matter if you’re on the receiving end of Israel’s largely US-supplied nukes?

    This is a bad mistake on my part. I am sorry.

    The nukes are NOT US-supplied. Much of the conventional weapons are. The nuclear know-how and the materials were all stolen from the US and the weapons were built in Israel.

    So nukes are all on Israel and the war crimes tribunals – whether nukes are used or not – it is the Jewish State of Israel and its leaders who will be put on trial as Jewish Zionists, just as German leaders were put on trial as German Nazis.

    Gentiles unite. I call for anti-gentilism education and monitors in all non-Jewish nations and states the world over.

    That would be every one except Israel.

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