Open Thread

The Ukraine War may be grinding toward the collapse of the Ukrainian military. The Russian daily tally of Ukrainian losses has been dwindling even as the daily walk forward at multiple points across the front continues apace.

I have never really felt I understood the apparent Russian military strategy. I do not understand the mix of constraints that has produced this combination of tactics and maneuver, including why the Ukrainians are able to hang onto fortified positions seemingly isolatable across the steppe landscape. I see these maps with the pincers of Russian flanking advances that never seem to quite close, while advances continue thru factory complexes and concrete apartment blocks. And, though we see lots of war-pr0n drone footage, the devastation after seems rarer.

One interpretation is that the Russians are minimizing their own personnel losses while maximizing Ukrainian material losses, subject to the constraint that the Russians have never achieved air supremacy or drone supremacy. The Russians dominate in artillery and ground-support aerial bombing, but have to be cautious about Ukrainian counter-battery fire and hidden positions. For whatever combination of reasons, the Russians do not emphasize cutting off incoming Ukrainian logistics.

At some point, the Russians will have to make a move to take the Right Bank below Dnipro. Are they hoping for a Ukrainian collapse to facilitate achieving that objective?

So Iran plans to assassinate Trump. Huh. What convenient timing.
So how did the plot get out? Someone took minutes of a secret meeting then sent them to the NYT so some ex IDF dude and his Jewish colleagues could write a report?
No, wait. That was Iran being aware of the Hamas breakout or something like that.
It’s all so confusing.
Do these propaganda pushers think everyone is as stupid as they are?
Never mind.

Biden will declare World War III if Iran succeeds in assassinating Trump.
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Good thing the CIA, FBI, NSA and company have seen a fall in competence like every other western institution. Gives more chance of them failing.
Speaking of Iran anyone dive into the rabbit hole of that “earthquake” that is rumored to be a nuclear bomb test on seismographs?
https://x.com/Currentreport1/status/1842974070192652604

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Russian military strategy. I do not understand the mix of constraints
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One possibility is that Russia views Ukraine as another “Afghanistan” for NATO. NATO has already sent Ukraine 2x the aid that Russia has spent on the war. A quick victory means the west can no longer send their military goods and money into a black hole. Along with this point is that relatively the West gets weaker every year.

There are some potential advantages to appearing weak. Imagine the psychological effect on NATO if Russia had won the war in 3 months verses if it is a 4 year long affair. Similarly imagine the psychological effects if Russia had done what Israel has, and targeted civilians for slaughter. The propaganda threats of Russians coming to rape and pillage are a lot less effective for the later scenarios.
Who can really say though.

Russia pretty much has to end up controlling both banks of the lower Dneiper (might as well get used to Russian-friendly spelling) to make their control of the “other two” oblasts credible and economically viable. The capitals of both oblasts are right-bank and in the long-run the economic viability of the left-bank and Crimea depends on hydraulic management of the River.

I cannot imagine the Russians want to make a Mariupol out of either major city, so some other strategy, military or diplomatic will be required.

DMC: the Ukrainian forces are compelled to attack thus taking disproportionate losses.

The Russians do seem to have a talent for provoking hopeless Ukrainian counterattacks, if the accounts of Dima are accurate. But, Ukraine has been remarkably successful in maintaining those fortified positions within shelling range of Donetsk City. I do not quite grasp how or why they were not starved out long ago. Maybe, something about the topography I do not grasp, or something about constraints Putin in his ultimate wisdom has placed on interdicting Ukrainian logistics. Saying it is about drawing Ukraine into a meat grinder might be right but also feels like a rationalization, a just so story.

The one place Ukraine did get aggressive recently is Kursk, where they captured Sudhza, a town of 5,000 notable for housing the gas meter and supply connection to Ukraine’s “Brotherhood” pipeline. Wikipedia helpfully notes that Blinken wrote his first book about the diplomatic battle in the 1980s to prevent the construction of the pipeline. I naturally wonder if there is an extortion play in holding Sudhza.

“”We have always been at war with Eurasia”

Somebody in my neighborhood has that on a little sign in their yard. Makes me smile every time I drive by.