The great problem with Trump, predictively, is that he’s fickle. He often doesn’t do what he says he’ll do. Even if he was sincere he’s easily handled by flatterers. The best model for Trump is an arrogant and touchy king who wants to be made to feel he’s amazing.
This means that court games matter even more than in a normal Presidency, and those who play them best have the most power and influence.
But even a good courtier can step wrong with Trump and be pushed out. The limelight has to stay on Trump himself. A courtier can have great power, but the credit and the media must flow to the top. The last thing any courtier wants is to have people saying publicly that they’re the power behind the throne.
Trump also likes to please people, especially mobs of people and he can sometimes get the bit between his teeth and run with an idea no matter what anyone around him says.
Preamble aside, Trump did come back and back to some of the same issues.
Thirty Percent Tariff on Chinese Goods
This will raise costs for American businesses and for consumers. Prices will rise more than the actual cost, as many businesses will use this as an excuse to raise prices even more than their costs. It will not significantly improve US jobs because China’s cost structure is more than 30% cheaper than America’s. It will help other foreign producers, however, and it will lead to a lot of scamming, where Chinese goods are shipped to a third party, scrubbed, and sent to the US, similar to the way Europe is now buying so much “Indian” oil. But…
Mass Deportation Of Immigrants
This is one of those places where I’m uncertain how serious Trump is, especially when it comes to measures like using the national guard. But let’s say he does manage to both massively slow immigration and remove many current immigrants. The effect is an inflation riptide: it will reduce rent, and increase the price of groceries (because most farm workers are immigrants. There will be general wage increases in businesses which can afford them, offset by demand declines. Deported immigrants don’t consume, after all. Because there is a significant and increasing problem with long-term illness and disability, the labor market will wind up even tighter.
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Some people will win from this pair of policies and even win fairly big. If you’re in a business with pricing power, it’ll be able to afford the increased wages, if you’re in one that can’t, the businesses will fail and you’ll lose big. We’ll have to see how much the price of housing and rent drops to have a full feel for this. Ironically, for this to really work would require anti-trust action against large landlords who are colluding to increase rent. Withdrawing some federal price-support for housing prices would help cause a collapse in housing prices which would benefit a lot of people, but hurt the upper classes. Of course those upper-classes went for Biden, not Trump.
NATO
Trump’s going to push hard for increased NATO spending by members. They’ll say they’re going to do it, in most cases, then won’t. At this point there’s a chance that Trump leaves NATO. I think, of all his policies, this is the one where there’ll be the most pushback from elites, including many people in his own administration, so I’d say odds favor NATO surviving, but it’s not a sure thing. If the US does leave NATO, it will be a huge boon for the world, and the best thing which could happen to Europe, forcing them to get serious about handling their own affairs. The policies Europe should follow are not those America wants.
Favoring gas cars and disfavoring Electric Vehicles and Sustainable Energy
Obviously a disaster for the environment and climate change. Effectively a subsidy for American automobile producers, who are behind on EV tech and production, but it also puts them into a national ghetto, as the rest of the world moves towards electric and hybrid and they fall behind even further. I assume Musk will push hard against the EV part of this, we’ll see whether he succeeds.
Trump has more proposed policies and his allies have many more. How much of Project 2025 will be enacted is unclear. Trump repudiated it, but the architects will be a big part of his administration. We’ll touch more on these in a later article.
The basic issue is that policies need support from each other. If you want re-industrialization you need to do a number of things. Tariffs would be part of that, but they aren’t all of it. Mass deportation of immigrants could work economically, but not at the same times as measures aren’t taken to deal with long term sickness in the native population, and so on. Proper automobile policy would be to invite branch plants and insist on local part sourcing in addition to tariffs, so that domestic producers learn and the jobs are in America.
Trump’s fundamentally a scatterbrain. He’s not a systems thinker, and the people in his adminstration are ideologues of a set of policies which won’t work economically, so Trump’s economy is unlikely to be overall great, though there will definitely be some winners. In 2028 there will be an opening for someone with more genuinely economically populist ideas, because many people will have been hurt by the Trumpconomy.
More later.
Feral Finster
“The great problem with Trump, predictively, is that he’s fickle. He often doesn’t do what he says he’ll do. Even if he was sincere he’s easily handled by flatterers. The best model for Trump is an arrogant and touchy king who wants to be made to feel he’s amazing.
This means that court games matter even more than in a normal Presidency, and those who play them best have the most power and influence.”
This is a very accurate description. I also would add that Trump is easily distracted and easily manipulated.
He does not appear particularly vengeful. Those who doubt may note that Haley and Pompeo both are back in Trump’s good graces.
Bazarov
Mass deportation is economically self-defeating, as expanding profits–a prerequisite of capitalism–depends on more intensively extracting surplus value from labor. The easiest way to do so is population increase, which you get either by reproduction or immigration.
If the population shrinks, the economy will as well, and the workers will suffer. Capitalists, deprived their labor pool, will turn to the next best thing: increasing the degree of exploitation among the laborers that remain. In other words, proletarianization.
This is all part and parcel with imperial decline, the process by which the USA–dependent on unequal exchange–transforms into just another country. The result will be that Americans will become more like Brazilians or Romanians in terms of their standard of living.
They will be forced from their servant sinecures into actually productive jobs, with the high degree of exploitation therein. They will not be happy about this (millions will die; life expectancy is already declining), and the bourgeoisie will be forced into increasingly repressive measures to maintain order.
Whether this will results in open terror government (fascism) remains to be seen. Likely it will be more of a Napoleon III type situation, with a strong executive granted legitimacy now and then by a confirmatory plebiscite. Not so different from how modern Russia’s set up.
Oakchair
Based on his first administration we could expect
A large transfer of wealth to the ruling class
Increased pollution from manufacturing, fossil fuels, and transportation
Increased healthcare costs and/or decreased heath care utilization as people’s access is reduced.
Optimistically we can hope he appoints someone or someone convinces him to do something with significant and large benefits, but who feels optimistic these days?
Probably the best hope for any good being done is if he appoints RFK Jr. and we finally have a government agency that wants to stop the systemic poisoning causing skyrocketing chronic illnesses and developmental disorders.
Curt Kastens
Let us assume that Putin is serious. If that is the case the only way to ensure the neutrality of Ukriane is for the Russian Army to be patroling the western Ukrainian border. Let us assume that Putin is serious. The only way to protect Russia from NATO is for Russian Troops to be be patrolling the English Channel.
The seriousness of Trump counts for nothing. He is an intregal part of the deep state. He will do what he is told by the deep state. Any portrayals to the contrary are nothing but theater designed to hide what it is the real rulers want. At this point I have no idea what it will be in either domestic or foriegn affairs that Trump will be told to do.
But people never learn. Years after the DNC was caught red handed sabotaging the Bernie Sanders campaign people still act as if the United States is a two faction system with genuine compitition between the 2 factions. I never learn either. I keep on mating coments when I should know bettor. Like a bEagle in heat.
Steven Augustine
Trump (like all ceremonial puppet appointees) has some amount of leeway, to rubberstamp corruption which channels pork in the direction of his favorite patrons and cronies, but I think anyone who thinks Trump is actually in charge, as a figurehead, must also think Biden can speak coherently for 20 minutes without a recent injection. Trump’s big job will be as patsy; a scapegoat for highlylikely horripilating moves to come.
The American Death Barge does not really zig and then zag in four year intervals… it stays the course. Picayune (that’s right) issues, such as Abortion, Legalizing the Drugs they already push on you, Gay Marriage, et al, is the kind of stuff TFIC* don’t give an impotent god’s dicky-damn over. They let you have stuff, or they withold stuff, to distract you with the drama of “Epochal Changes” the Serfs love to get all het up over (cue: tearjerking Civil Rights anthem which remains weirdly relevant generations later).
Meanwhile, on important matters like Global Crowd Control, in an Ever-Evolving Technofascist Wet Dream: The Death Barge stays the course. Straight as a Laser, kids. From strength to strength.
The Tech and the Nasty Policies (requiring the tech for enforcement) are playing leap frog up asymptote hill while TFIC let the clock run out. Modern Politics is about brainwashing Duh Masses into thinking they really (really) want something… and then giving it to them until they beg for mercy. This all ramped up when Social Media got most of us in a headlock (like gullible horny teens).
China is the beta tester. Serfs of The West will need a bit more “tenderizing” before they perform as well as China’s obedient Serfs. Disgust with the past decade or two of “old fashioned” human-based politics will have the freshly brainwashed young Betas begging to be governed by Algorithm. They will be wanting sweet UBI with that, too. Carbon (and ebil carbon-based Boomers) will be their Emmanuel Goldstein.
From the smoldering husk of Murrkka will come a Huxwellian Phoenix of The West, with a brave new system for Justice/ Social Cohesion/ Communal Responsibility … a system suspiciously similar to something China pioneered decades before. “The West” Playing “keep up” will be the new vibe.
There will or won’t be statues (for jeering) of Bushes, Trump, Biden, Harris, Clintons, Obamas… the rogues gallery of the pre-Reconstruction who helped bring about The Glorious Reset by being so laughably corrupt (by design) that futuristic school children will sing songs (in some cool, English-nuggeted, Chinese pidgin) about them.
Some of you will think this vision absurd. Absurd it is! Inevitable, also.
TL; DR: These figureheads in the figurehead race are figureheads
*The Fuckers in Charge
Steven Augustine
(please forgive the flamboyant errata)
Oakchair
Serfs of The West will need a bit more “tenderizing” before they perform as well as China’s obedient Serfs.
——
Chinese serfs only have to look at Africa, Southern Asia or Latin America to see how their ruling class has performed.
—–
From the smoldering husk of Murrkka will come a Huxwellian Phoenix
—-
How are we not already a 1984/Brave new world dystopia?
War is peace, check
Ignorance is strength, check.
2 minutes of hate (news/social media), check
Surveillance state, check
Mass censorship, check
Controlled opposition, check
Chocolate rations increased from 30g to 20g (Food inflation was 1% last year), check
Soma drugs to pacify/stupefy the masses, check
Aesthetics over substance, check
Purple Library Guy
You shouldn’t underestimate figureheads with formal power. Someone sufficiently bloody-minded can use that formal power to do serious things. You can be the power behind the throne, but if the commander in chief of the armed forces tells soldiers to shoot you, why, you’re the dead power behind the throne.
And, so-called marginal things can be very important. Just how many gays are there in the United States, anyway? How many identity-culture kids, how many trans, how many Latino immigrants? How many women dealing with pregnancy issues? How many “enemies within”? How many people’s lives would have to be ruined before it makes a difference to the “big picture”? If one of them ends up being Steven Augustine’s or Curt Kastens’, would they still be considering it marginal?
About the only thing that bothers me about Mr. Welsh’s assessment here is that in discussing the effect on the US as a whole of these mass deportations, imprisonments and so on, he does not so much as make a nod to the idea that there would be an impact on the people involved in being deported and jailed and having their families ripped apart. Do they not get to be a piece of the picture?
Joan
I sound like a broken record but most American cities are dense enough to go off cars completely and switch to walking, biking, and transit.
Arthur
Appoint RFK, Jr.?! Please, Oakchair. I’ve already seen a few stories that Trump is tossing that crackpot under the bus. He got what he wanted from Bobby. A few extra votes from the kook brigade and now it’s bye-bye.
mago
Too much to comment on in this format, so will just say that the immigration issue is another divide and conquer fog/smog machine.
Slaughter houses and strawberry fields need cheap, disposable, voiceless and dependent labor sources.
Sheesh, you can’t even find a dishwasher or car wash attendant among the great white American unwashed.
Who’s zooming who?
Net Neutrality
Ian, I’ve been reading your writings on how to live while knowing things are going to get worse, like “The World Has Always Been a Shit Show and it’s Always Been Beautiful”. It helps me get through nights more easily.
KT Chong
Elon Musk tweeted that he had already known months in advance that Trump was going to win. He had looked at and was tipped off by X.com’s internal data and traffics, which nobody else had.
So X.com was a loss leader for him. He knew he was buying a crystal ball that could predict election outcomes. It is like he got a copy of Grays Sports Almanac from Back to the Future, and now he can predict the future. That was why he went “all in” on Trump. He was guaranteed to make a big profit.
He is smart. You guys have to give him that much.
KT Chong
I finally read a detailed summary of Project 2025… and I am NOT entirely against it. Actually, I kinda like the majority of it, maybe around 60 to 70 or even 80 percent of it.
enoughisenough
Ian: what if he doesn’t actually deport the migrants, but leaves them to rot in federal for-profit prisons (whose stocks just went up) and uses them as slaves.
Prop 6 in CA, which would have prohibited forced labor just failed.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/immigrants-in-private-prisons
Oakchair
Aldous Huxley’s idea for a 2nd dystopian novel was scrapped because it was so unbelievable, absurd, and laughable. Here were his ideas:
-People’s immune systems are so poisoned that certain food staples have to be banned.
-Crackpots are people who oppose disabling 10% of the population.
-Every morning everyone mutters “it’s all perferct” while half the population has multiple diseases such as autism, Crohn’s disease, dementia, arthritis, cancer, diabetes, Parkinson’s, MS, obesity, heart damage, allergies, etc.
-Anyone suggesting that we stop injecting heavy metals into children is sent to an insane asylum.
-The solution to suicide, depression, anxiety, ADHD and addiction is adding industrial waste to the water, and a media campaign of “just say yes to drugs”.
The real question is what are the fantastical dystopias thought up by a society where all that has been normalized?
Mark Pontin
@ Ian –
On the Trump tariffs: to be clear, Trump has said when, forex, confronted at a recent onstage Q & A with Bloomberg editor-in-chief John Micklethwaite at the Economic Club of Chicago , that he’s open to, and expects to see those tariffs act to force foreign corporations to **build their plants inside the US and employ American workers** if those corporations wish to avoid those tariffs.
Pardon if you knew this. If not, links —
00:08:45 Impact of tariffs on trade; John Deere; threatens tariffs on German carmakers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyaHbUmVll4&t=525s
Trump full interview from start —
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyaHbUmVll4&t=525s
~~~
Of course, Trump says a lot of things — anything and everything, in fact. Obvious questions that arise in my mind —
*If Chinese EV manufacturers were actually to build US-based EV plants with American employees — minimal numbers of American employees because Chinese EV plants are up to 100 percent robotics — will Trump stick to his word when Ford, the UAW, and all the other interested parties come lobbying him to stop it because the price point on those US-built Chinese EVs will still destroy US auto manufacturers?
*Do the Chinese even need to build factories and deal with the US in this way when they have the rest of the world to sell EVs to?
And so on.
Mark Pontin
A counter-argument against tariffs as a job creation planwith cited historical specifics (cherry-picked?) from the Wall Street Journal —
Why Economists Hate Trump’s Tariff Plan – WSJ
2:42 Tariffs as job creation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-eHOSq3oqI&t=162s
different clue
Lots of people are as smart as Musk or even smarter. But they weren’t born with a Silver Spoon Emerald Mine in their mouth the way Musk was. He is a clever operator and a very successful Federal Subsidy miner. With some technological knowledge. He is certainly money-smarter than Trump. He has many times the money his father left him. I wonder if Trump even has a fraction of the money his father gave him.
How many people would have to leave the TwitterX platform before it no longer gives him the data to predict the future with?
@ KT Chong,
What are the 20-40% of things in Project 2025 that you would find disagreeable and for what reason?
@Oakchair,
Here is something for a future dystopia. The price of surgical anethesia and dental novocaine and pain-management opoids is raised so high that only the millionaires and billionaires can afford it. The reason for that will be that the millionaires and billionaires have decided that the Lower Classes have gone soft, and since pain builds character, they get no anesthesia or novocaine.
Ian Welsh
Mark,
I didn’t know that. Thank you for the correction.
KT Chong
The three things that I disagree with Project 2025:
– Injecting more God and religion (specifically Christianity) into schools and the government.
– Deploying national guards all over the country for mass deportation; that means the country would be effectively under martial law; (red states and all their local law enforcement agencies are already going to cooperate with the Trump administration on mass deportation; for blue states like California that refuse to cooperate, I would suggest bussing and sending all the migrants to flood and overwhelm those states… until they submit, or go bankrupt, or their voters finally have enough and can’t take it anymore and revolt. It has worked in New York.)
– Prohibiting Medicare from negotiating drug prices, cutting fundings for Medicaid and the Department of Veterans Affair, offering some kind of voucher program for Medicaid recipients; basically, (partially) moving Medicare and Medicaid recipients to private insurance.
So, maybe I disagree with only 10 to 20 percent of it.
A large portion of the Project 2025 deal with dismantling the Deep State, (like abolishing the Homeland Security Department and FISA/secret courts, dispersing and decentralizing government agencies;) and coming down and cracking down hard on the woke/DEI/transgender BS… that is the prat which I actually support, wholeheartedly.
I also like how they are going to make attempts to reorient the economy from “Wall Street” economy to “real” economy, (like gradually bringing back the gold-backed currency even though I think it is impossible to do at this point, but it is a good goal.)
Anyway, there is a lot of good stuff in it. Now that I’ve actually read Project 2025, (well, a detailed and neutral summary of it,) I think the mainstream media was just being hysterical and dishonest and gaslighting people when they reported it (because most people did not bother looking into it anyway.) Well, unless you support the DEI/transgenderism, then yeah… Armageddon is coming for you.
KT Chong
Project 2025 also includes parts to deal with China as the “biggest threat” to America, but I am not worried for China because IMO it is already too late for the US to stop China at this point. China has gotten too powerful, and the momentum is on China’s side.
The US had made numerous strategic mistakes, i.e., going to war with Russia, which pushed Russia to China and solidified their alliance, partnership, or whatever you want to call it; supporting Israel in the Gaza Genocide, which pushed the Global South to China; using the dollar-based system as a weapon, which has weakened the dollar and strengthened BRICS. I think the US might have destroyed its credibility and standing in the Global South and probably in the rest of the West as well… I don’t know, Europe seems to have stayed more or less subservient to the US. However, IMO the re-election of Trump will also weaken the ties and trust between the US and Europe, and provides openings for China to work on Europe. All these events have benefited China.
I do not believe there is a God, (I am agnostic,) but it seems like some higher universal forces have been moving all those pieces to favor and help China. God, the Universal, the Greater and Unknown Forces, or whatever you want to called it, it might have blessed and favored America once in the past. However, it seems the Force has already abandoned America, and now it favors China for some reasons. All those events that happened all at once or one after another, and all of them has hurt America and helped China in some way or another. Even when China or Xi made a stupid mistake, (and he has made quite a few,) the Force would miraculously made something happened to help China and neutralize that mistake.
Back in 2016 or 2017, when Trump started the trade war with China, I actually thought: “Shit, China is screwed.” Now, looking at all the things that have happened in in the past few years, it seems that the Force, the Universe or whatever has decided that China will rise.
China really has not ambition to become a global hegemon, take over the world or expands its power beyond its immediate sphere of influence; that is not our culture, and that is not how we think. The cultural attitude or belief that your side has to take over the world, convert everyone else to your side, make the whole world submit to your side… that is actually a Judeo-Christian-Islam way of thinking that forms the basis of American and Western culture: there is only one God and only one acceptable way of thinking, governing and living. My point is: China is not going to send military across the Pacific to attack the US or reach far beyond its borders or immediate sphere of influence. That is just not how Chinese culture thinks or behaves.
Anyway, I am not really worried about what Project 2025 intends to do with China: because it is no longer within US power to stop China’s rise. China is gonna rise and overtake America, and frankly there is nothing the US can do to turn the tide. China is a “threat” to the US only if you can’t accept that China would not submit to the US, become a US vassal, or adopt or convert to America’s way of life and thinking, (i.e., “democracy”.)
I know there have been a lot of negative news on China in the US that keep sayings, “China is collapsing!” “Chinese economy is imploding!” “China is done!” They were just propaganda to gaslight and mislead people. All those narratives were the same sort of gaslighting and lies that Russia is losing in Ukraine and falling apart, that there is a genocide in Xinjiang in China but no genocide in Gaza, that the US economy was doing great, there were no retail crime waves or migrants crisis in America, that migrant gangs are not terrorizing Americans or seizing apartments, and Biden was not senile and still capable of serving another term, that Kamala was ahead in the polls.
They were all gaslighting and lies, but the media keeps telling us: reject the evidence of your eyes and ears because they are fake news… BELIEVE WHAT WE TELL YOU! If the media has been lying about Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, the crime waves, smash-and-grabs, migrant crisis, migrant gangs, and Biden and Kamala… then what makes you think the same media has not been gaslighting and lying to you about China, Xinjiang or Tibet as well?
If you have been to China recently and seen the situation in China for yourself: just how far China is ahead in terms of infrastructure, advancement and technology everywhere, how all the cities and streets and shopping malls — yes, they still exist in China and are thriving — all the places were bustling with people and businesses, how almost everyone had bought something and carried shopping bags in their hands, (i.e., they had money to spend;) and people were actually friendly and happy… then you would realize: the China narratives in America does NOT match up with the reality on the ground in China.
Oh, and if you has a chance to go to China, be sure to visit Xinjiang and Tibet as well. The CPC actually encourages and wants foreign tourist to visit Xinjiang and Tibet and see the situations for themselves. Which is why the US State Department has been talking about banning and penalizing Americans for visiting Xinjiang or Tibet, because it just undermines their propaganda.
Actually, you do not even have to go to China for yourselves. You just have to go to YouTube and look for videos and travelogs that have been posted by American and Western tourists who have been to China recently. All those YouTubers had a reality shock when they realized the gap between what the Western media has been telling them… and what they actually saw on the ground in China. IMO, it is just a matter of time before the US government orders YouTube to take down all those videos because they undermine US narratives and propaganda on China.
KT Chong
FYI:
I live in a relatively safe community, and even I have witnessed a smash-and-grab, and fairly recently, earlier this year, in a Walmart of all places.
I live in a mixed Asian enclave community, (about 80 percent Asians and 20 percent Hispanics.) This community is fairly insulated from the outside world. We do not even see a lot of White people here; (usually they come here on weekends and for the restaurants.) As far as Asian enclave goes, this is a very interesting one: we have Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Vietnamese and different Asian ethnicities living together in the same neighborhoods. Typically, different Asian ethnicity live in their own little enclave and away from other Asian ethnicity: Chinese live in Chinatown, Koreans in Koreatown, Japanese in Little Toyko, Vietnamese in Little Saigon, etc.
Here, you go out to a street or shopping complex. Let say you can see an Asian store that has big business sign in Chinese (and English, of course;) the next store beside it has its sign… in Korean. Then, the next sign down is in Japanese. So you can do grocery shopping and buy Chinese century eggs, Korean kimchee, and Japanese miso paste and natto beans in one go. All the major Asian-ethnic big chain stores are here. Then, of course, we can shop for American stuff in the local Walmart and Costco. The best thing here is, of course, all the different Asian-ethnic restaurants in one places.
So, this is an Asian enclave community that is insulated from the “mainstream” outside world, and we only have to deal with other Asians who are similar to us. I like it here this way.
I was saying about the smash-and-grab that I recently saw in our local Walmart. Well, those burglars, let just say, they stood out because they clearly did NOT live or belong in our neighborhood. As those criminals were pushing their carts full of stolen goods out of the Walmart, everyone else (like, Asians, Chinese, Koreans, etc.) was just standing there and watched, either in amusement (in my case) or shock (how most of the women acted,) and were were recording the incident on our phones, (which I did.) The last time we had that many outsiders and this much excitement in our community was when Black Lives Matter protestors marched through our streets (uninvited and unwelcomed because a lot of them did not wear a mask) during the COVID lockdown five years ago.
There is clearly a crime wave. Democrats have seriously mismanaged the country, and the media has been hiding and not reporting/under-reporting them, and gaslighting and lying to people about it. Even if you have not experienced it personally, I am sure you have seen the videos on YouTube. I live in a very safe, insulated neighborhood, so I imagine it has been even worse in other places.
KT Chong
By the way, that is the smash-and-grab I have encountered in Walmart. It was NOT reported in any mainstream news or major news channels. There were probably a lot more that have happened in our neighborhoods, but I just do not know about it because I was not there to witness them and the news did not report them.
Steven Augustine
@oakchair
“How are we not already a 1984/Brave new world dystopia?”
We are in the Fan Fic now… and it’s surprisingly well-written.
@Mago
I think you and I know that Der Bumble Trump LOVES the economic benefits (to him and fellow Robber Barons) of hiring Third World expats (laugh). Especially as someone with assets in the hospitality industry. He also has no problem pretending that the opposite is true. I think Der Bumble Trump would replace everyAmerica-born Serf with a hardworking Mexican with the snap of a finger if he could. He’s forced to play the long game. TFIC try to avoid jumping the shark whenever they can. First they gaslight a greenlight out of the dimwitted giant if at all possible, rather than wake the big dumb creature up…
…that is the MAJOR reverse-psychology gambit TFIC always use on the hapless Serfs: pretend to be against a policy or practise, egg the Serfs on into demanding said “taboo” be normalized… and then let the Serfs feel “empowered” and celebrate when they green light another self-sabotaging new norm. (I guess only illegal invasions are too lucrative and timing-sensitive to use this time-intense trick on; invasions they just DO and try to bring along as much public opinion as they can milk with war films and “the news”…)
That’s how TFIC handled the whole “drugs” thing; isn’t it obvious that the Feudal Lords much prefer to have their young male cattle zonked or pacified on drugs (when they’re not being sent off to the McMilitary)?
Ditto “abortions”: the Feudal Lords MUCH prefer dead Serf fetuses (ZPG is one of their pet projects)… and so on… why are Duh Masses so easy to hoodwink? Even better: Duh Masses will beg for and get the “right” to opt for suicide, as a response to a broken leg or depression, too (THE INALIENABLE RIGHT TO CHOOSE MY DEATH ON MY OWN SCHEDULE! t-shirts available soon).
I used the same reverse psychology tricks, very effectively, on our toddler… but my nurturing, and protective, actions were and are grounded in Love. Not so regarding our unequal relationship with TFIC (in which Duh Masses are as infantilized as a nation-sized kindergarten would be).
I would laugh most heartily if I were in a safe location on another planet.
marku52
Trump dropped a very sound X clip where he lists taking apart the censorship industrial complex on day one. Its a very complete and detailed list. Including banning government intrusion into legal speech from any level, recognizing FISA courts are rubber stamps, and removing officials who have interfered with speech.
It was a great list. I guess in 38 days we’ll find out whether he meant it.
different clue
So much to read, so little time . . .
It would be worth my time to read Project 2025 because it will be the go-to policy grab-bag for the next several years at least. But the only way I can read it is if I stop reading other things long enough to get it read.
Choices, choices . . .
I “have heard” that one of the things Project 2025 calls for is to defund and abolish the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency and the National Weather Service. The 2025ers would like to privatise the profitizable parts of it and abolish the rest. A main reason for that is to stop all their talk about “global warming” and to stop them from gathering and assembling data about it. Talk about “global warming” is bad for business, and if no information is gathered about it, no information can be spread about it, and business won’t be disturbed by having heard a discouraging word.
Combined with pro-gas, pro-coal and pro-oil policies called for elsewhere and maybe in “2025” too ( without reading it I don’t know for sure), carbon skyflooding and runaway global warming will be so locked in as to be irreversible everywhere and for everyone, including for China too. Unless the ChinaGov decides to launch its own geo-engineering program for “covering” the stratosphere with a sunlight-reflective sulfate particles.
Steven Augustine
“Trump dropped a very sound X clip”
Yes and this implies to me that my suspicion, that Der Bumble Trump will be JFK’d, before these promised changes are instituted (in actuality or as a ruse) is not unlikely: we already have this summer’s foreshadowing, right? A) this gives them their first FPOTUSOC and B) provides the trigger for the Civil War they appear to be scheduling. As a chess move it strikes me as irresistible.
Maybe I’m wrong *so thoroughly* that, instead, Der Bumble Trump will bring back the Swinging ’60s with a shockingly anti-Orwellian regime and a flourishing of Radically Liberatory Values … but I kinda doubt it. Before he willingly took on the role of half-of-an-Emmanuel-Goldstein, DBT was clearly one of Their boys, getting his necessary blackmail pix shot, in the backrooms and dungeons of Studio 54, like all the rest. People very rarely go from “Right” to “Left”… it’s always the other way around, as we know (and even then, as with the Clintons or Arianna HuffPo, it’s usually a ruse).
Dan Kelly
Trump taps pro-Israel stalwart to be next US envoy to UN
‘President-elect, Donald Trump, announced Monday that he has selected staunchly pro-Israel Representative, Elise Stefanik, to be the US’s next envoy to the UN, Anadolu Agency reports.
“I am honoured to nominate Chairwoman, Elise Stefanik, to serve in my Cabinet as US Ambassador to the United Nations. Elise is an incredibly strong, tough and smart America First fighter,” Trump said in a statement, according to multiple reports.
CNN reported Sunday that Trump offered Stefanik the job.
The lawmaker from upstate New York is the fourth-highest ranking Republican in the House of Representatives where she chairs the Republican Conference. A graduate of Harvard University, Stefanik has been a rising star among Trump’s allies after refashioning herself from a moderate Republican to a MAGA stalwart.
Stefanik has long been a vocal critic of the UN, where she is slated to set up shop after Trump assumes office on 20 January, 2025, and has accused the international body of anti-Semitism for its criticism of Israel’s war on the besieged Gaza Strip.
Just last week, Stefanik called for the US to defund the UN’s Palestine refugee agency after Israel’s parliament passed a pair of laws strictly curtailing UNRWA’s ability to function in Israel. She accused the Agency, which provides vital services to millions of Palestinian refugees displaced across the Middle East, of being “Hamas-infiltrated”.
Stefanik has also staunchly criticised the UN’s opposition to Israel’s illegal settlements in the West Bank, using Israel’s moniker “Judea and Samaria” to refer to the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
“I am demanding Joe Biden show strength on the world stage and clearly condemn the blatant anti-Israel bias in the United Nations,” she said in a February 2023 statement as the UN Security Council was preparing to vote on a resolution condemning Israel’s settlements.
“Joe Biden must not abandon our ally and shamefully cave to the UN’s agenda. I am proud to always stand with our ally, Israel, and call on the Biden Administration do the same,” she added.’
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241111-trump-taps-pro-israel-stalwart-to-be-next-us-envoy-to-un/
Dan Kelly
“Let’s Assume Trump Is Serious About Some Policies, What Are The Effects?”
I believe Trump is very serious about taking out Iran and essentially finishng the Oded Yinon plan.
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Chris Hedges: You’re talking about ground forces going in?
Col Wilkerson: That’s the only way you rid a country of its nuclear arsenal.
Chris Hedges: That’s true, but where will they go in from, Iraq?
Col Wilkerson: We are illegally – both according to international law and our own domestic law – we are illegally present in Syria right now and we are there protecting oil going to Israel.
Chris Hedges: Which Trump said – and which got him in a lot of trouble – but it was an honest statement.
Col Wilkerson: Yep. And we would go through Syria without battin’ an eye.
https://youtu.be/br_xcGgoXio?t=1743
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ISIS steps up attacks to ‘destabilize’ Syria, Russian envoy warns
https://thecradle.co/articles/isis-steps-up-attacks-to-destabilize-syria-russian-envoy-warns
Israel’s military is building along UN-patrolled demilitarized zone in Syria, satellite images show
https://archive.is/cBccI
‘Brian Hook, a former state department official and Iran hawk who led the US “maximum pressure” campaign during Trump’s first term, is expected to receive a top national security job in his second term.
In an interview with CNN, Hook noted that Trump has pledged to “isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken them economically” to prevent it from supporting the Axis of Resistance.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have all worked with Iran to resist Israel’s ongoing genocide of Palestinians in Gaza.
“It’s going to be maximum pressure 2.0,” said Robert McNally, a former US energy official.
With China being Iran’s largest oil purchaser, McNally told the WSJ that Trump may pressure Iran by imposing US bans on Chinese ports that receive Iranian oil.
Helima Croft, the chief commodities strategist at Canadian broker RBC Capital Markets, told the WSJ that Trump’s senior advisors have expressed strong support for an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear and energy facilities.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has advocated attacking the Islamic Repubic’s nuclear facilities for many years, is a strong supporter of Trump.
Mick Mulroy, a top Pentagon official for the West Asia region in Trump’s first term, stated that the president-elect may nevertheless be willing to strike a new deal with Iran, but only “if it’s his deal.”
‘Brian Hook, a former state department official and Iran hawk who led the US “maximum pressure” campaign during Trump’s first term, is expected to receive a top national security job in his second term.
In an interview with CNN, Hook noted that Trump has pledged to “isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken them economically” to prevent it from supporting the Axis of Resistance.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have all worked with Iran to resist Israel’s ongoing genocide of Palestinians in Gaza.
“It’s going to be maximum pressure 2.0,” said Robert McNally, a former US energy official.
With China being Iran’s largest oil purchaser, McNally told the WSJ that Trump may pressure Iran by imposing US bans on Chinese ports that receive Iranian oil.
Helima Croft, the chief commodities strategist at Canadian broker RBC Capital Markets, told the WSJ that Trump’s senior advisors have expressed strong support for an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear and energy facilities.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has advocated attacking the Islamic Repubic’s nuclear facilities for many years, is a strong supporter of Trump.
Mick Mulroy, a top Pentagon official for the West Asia region in Trump’s first term, stated that the president-elect may nevertheless be willing to strike a new deal with Iran, but only “if it’s his deal.”
https://thecradle.co/articles/trump-looking-to-drastically-throttle-irans-oil-sales-report
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Energy Strategist and Former CIA Analyst Helima Croft *01 Says Always Check Your Assumptions
https://paw.princeton.edu/article/energy-strategist-and-former-cia-analyst-helima-croft-01-says-always-check-your-assumptions
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Jared Kushner Returns to Trump’s Inner Circle as Key Figures Shape the Next Administration
https://tjvnews.com/2024/11/jared-kushner-returns-to-trumps-inner-circle-as-key-figures-shape-the-next-administration/
Dan kelly
‘Some of President-elect Donald Trump’s key advisers are backing Scott Bessent, who runs macro hedge fund Key Square Group, as the best choice to serve as Treasury secretary.
Bessent, who met with Trump on Friday, said he told the president-elect that “the dollar loves you and we keep increasing the after-tax return on US assets, and it’s going to keep going.”
“Long-term interest rates are coming down even with this growth shock,” Bessent said in an interview Monday with Fox Business. “The tax cuts, the deregulation, energy dominance, interest rates are actually going down, and the dollar is still going up.”
Trump’s Wall Street allies are urging him to appoint someone with deep finance industry knowledge to serve as Treasury secretary, advice that the president-elect’s team has indicated he’ll follow, according to people familiar with the process. A wide swath of tax breaks expire next year, giving Trump the opportunity to broadly shape fiscal policy as he did with his 2017 tax cuts.’
https://archive.is/Wm0eh
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Bessent
High finance, hedge funds, donations to both parties over the years in the same vein as Blackrock’s Fink who said it doesn’t matter who wins for prez because we (the financiers) will win regardless.
Meanwhile:
‘78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, a 6% increase from the previous year. In other words, more than three-quarters of Americans struggle to save or invest after paying for their monthly expenses.
Similarly, a 2023 Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerning—reported that their income doesn’t even cover their standard expenses (29%).’
https://archive.is/0G3Tx
different clue
They say that ” personnel is policy” and that is somewhat true at times. Trump has suggested Stefanik as his choice for our UN Ambassador, and she is already making a name for herself, winning friends and influencing people overseas.
Here is an interesting item from the MurderedByWords subreddit, titled ” Absolute bangers being dropped.” It shows Stefanik’s understanding of our China Policy going forward, and a Chinese High-Guy’s response. Here is the link.
https://www.reddit.com/r/MurderedByWords/comments/1gptmcy/absolute_bangers_being_dropped/
different clue
Here is a little WorkReform subreddit post by Nina Turner saying in her words what Ian Welsh has written about regarding what the “left” should do with power if they get themselves elected to it.
Only Turner has referrenced what the DemParty refuses to do with power when elected to it, which explains why the DemParty satisfies ever fewer people.
https://www.reddit.com/r/WorkReform/comments/1gqclr7/when_elected_its_often_best_to_actually_govern/