If you want to demilitarize a country you can do it by treaty, or you can do it by fact. Germany was demilitarized after WWI, but it retained the ability to build a large military and eventually did so.
The Russian view is that Ukraine needs to be demilitarized, de-Nazified and made neutral, it will otherwise remain a threat to them.
The demilitarization strategy is fairly simple: kill or disable everyone who can and will fight. This has been a grinding war, but at almost every stage Russia has had air, drone and artillery supremacy. It has taken great care to disperse attacking troops and to keep its own casualties down.
Casualty ratios are a matter of great dispute, but I cannot imagine that the side with air, drone and artillery superiority is taking the most casualties. I would guess the exchange rate is between 3:1 and 6:1. Once again, we won’t know until some years after the war.
Ukraine’s population is crashing. Pre war it was 42 million, as of 2023 it was probably 28 million and there’s no way it is not even lower now.
So to a large extent Russian tactics support the goal of demilitarization. Even if Russia could do “big arrow”, why do them before the Ukrainian military is ground to dust and Ukraine is demographically exhausted? Win the war, but fail to end Ukraine’s ability and willingness to fight and there’s just going to be another war.
Which is why anything but a neutral Ukraine, genuinely neutral, or a Russian satrapy is also unacceptable. Ukraine wasn’t and isn’t part of NATO but that didn’t keep NATO from using it as a cat’s paw against Russia. If Russia wants a defanged, safe Ukraine on its border, it’s no longer just about staying out of NATO, true Austrian cold war style neutrality will be required.
And the since the neo-Nazis who are influential in the military and government, despite their small numbers, will never not be hostile to Russia, Ukraine has to be be de-Nazified. Out of the military, out of power, and either dead or in prison for a very long time.
Demographics isn’t the only thing which creates capability to fight, of course. The more of Ukraine that Russia takes, the weaker Ukraine will be in the future. What is particularly important is to take the entire coast and landlock the Ukrainian hump, but farther West Russia takes land, the less of a threat Ukraine is to the Russian heartlands.
Smaller population, worse geography, no Nazis anywhere near power, no allies to feed it weapons and help it fortify, and genuinely neutral: these are Russia’s post war goals for Ukraine.
These are maximal goals, and they require a completely defeated Ukraine, likely one that signs an uncoditional surrender. If they can be accomplished with a negotiated surrender, fine, but if Russia is wise it will fight till it gets the terms necessary to defang Ukraine and make it useless as a Western catspaw.
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Tallifer
This all sounds like a hundred good reasons for the West to fight Russia until it surrenders its imperial fantasies.
someofparts
I hope they do take the whole coastline. Hardly seems safe unless they do.
ilpalazzo
The saddest thing is Ukraine was probably one of Soviet Union’s richest republics post war with immense industrial and civil infrastructure, one of the best places to live on the planet and lost it.
bruce wilder
Things would have to evolve considerably from where we are, but an interim period where rump Ukraine is a collapsed state could tempt neighbors other than Russia to intervene and possibly slice off pieces. Hungary would like to protect ethnic Hungarians. Moldova would like to reach the sea.
Odessa, with its large Russian-speaking minority, would have to be conquered or annexed to make rump Ukraine land-locked. An alternative strategy might be to hold it hostage. Since Odessa is tied into the transportation network of western Ukraine heavily, becoming a hostage or gateway could become a point of continuing leverage.
Türkiye, which grinds Ukrainian and Russian wheat to flour and controls naval access to the Black Sea will have an opinion that Russia will have to respect.
The Ukraine War was a gamble, which Russia may well lose, yet. The multipolar world in which Powers, great and small negotiate and accommodate, is a world where Russia, too, will have to negotiate with and accommodate its neighbors. The war has confirmed several lesser Powers in hostility to Russia and that is a problem for Russia.
Revelo
Both Russia and USA are incentivized to continue war at a low boil for several more years.
Russia is incentivized for reasons you listed, plus others. Attrit (=liquidate, exterminate) fanatics along existing line of contact. Destroy Ukraine’s industrial potential, so that all weapons and other supplies must be imported and transported at great expense to distant line of contact, thus facilitating attrition process. Break will of older or poorly educated Ukrainians, who are forced stay in Ukraine, by several more years of suffering without electricity. Push young and well educated EU oriented Ukrainians, with their deluded fantasies of €2000+/month salaries in Ukraine in the near future due to EU membership that will never happen, to migrate to and permanently settle in EU. Wait for EU to weaken economically and tire of spending money supporting Ukraine. Wait for USA to get tangled up in a war with Iran or China or both, this unable to spare resources on Ukraine.
USA is incentivized because long war will keep both Russia and EUoccupied and weak, so that neither can compete with USA for exploitation of Africa and South America. USA can then focus on competing strictly with China. War also helps USA in its efforts to poach German industries which depend on cheap energy, and to poach top EU, Ukrainian and Russian engineers/scientists.
Final result will likely be partition of Ukraine that people have been talking about since 1991, which would have avoided this war.
Western Ukraine (everything west of Zhytomyr/Vinnytsia oblasts, or roughly west of line drawn due south fromMinsk) becomes new state called Galicia, which is joins EU as Polish controlled puppet regime (though one small slice of west Ukraine will likely go to Slovakia/Hungary, another slice to Moldova/Romania). Note that Poland has unsettled business with west Ukraine because of 1943 Volyn massacre, when Ukrainians killed 60000-120000 ethnic polish women and children with clubs and farm implements and threw the bodies into a lake to rot, where the skeletons remain to this day because Ukraine refuses to allow Poland to recover them. So don’t expect this Polish puppet regime to show much patience for Ukrainian fanaticism.
Rest of Ukraine not currently claimed by Russia will be a puppet regime of Russia. This piece can never be allowed into EU because its huge agricultural power would destroy all EU competitors. This piece includes half of former industrial Ukraine (other half is in Donbas, which Russia currently claims), but industry will mostly be destroyed by time war ends. Much of former population will be scattered to Western Ukraine, Kyiv or Odessa, EU, or Russia. Most of those who remain outside Kyiv and Odessa will be old, uneducated and/or disabled. Russia will likely not rebuild rump Ukraine, so viable parts will be Kyiv and Odessa plus whatever towns are necessary for supporting agriculture. Formerly great industrial cities of Zaporozhia, Krivvy Rog, Dniper, Kharkiv, Krememchuk, etc will be left to collapse into ruins. Ukraine will be more desperately poor in nominal GDP than ever, but not so bad in real terms. In particular, there will be plenty of cheap land for those interested in agriculture.
Rump Ukraine will likely repudiate its debts and confiscate property owned by EU/USA corporations, which is another reason to prolong war, because realization of these losses will cause stock market disturbances. Best kick this can down the road.
EU and USA also don’t want to unfreeze $300 billion of frozen Russian assets, because Russia would then spend that money buying things in EU and USA to reduce Russian inflation while causing EU/USA inflation. Another reason to prolong war and kick this can down the road.
USA also wants to use Ukraine continue testing new weapons, so as be better prepared for Iran and China. Another reason to continue war.
Trump has made big unrealistic promises to end in 24 hours. Easiest way to unwalk those promises is demand full audit of Ukrainian spending, then get furious when Zelensky/Ermak refuse to cooperate, blame Biden for corruption, walk away in disgust. Quick end of war would require partition described above, which would force acknowledgement of Russian victory and NATO defeat. Much better for Trump is slow-boil kick-the-can-down-the-road option.
Nate Wilcox
Typo: “Ukraine’s population is crashing. Pre war it was 42 million, as of 2023 it was probably 28 million and there’s no way it is even lower now.” should be “Ukraine’s population is crashing. Pre war it was 42 million, as of 2023 it was probably 28 million and there’s no way it is *NOT* even lower now.”
Feral Finster
“Tallifer
This all sounds like a hundred good reasons for the West to fight Russia until it surrenders its imperial fantasies.”
Go sign up, then, tough guy. Ukraine is desperate for warm live bodies of any kind.
Anyway, it remains to be seen whether the West will charge into WWIII. Starmer certainly is anticipating this, presumably to show his American Master once and for all who is the most loyalest little bitch.