Seems the Syrian army just wouldn’t fight and its allies couldn’t prop it up this time, which given the speed of the advance makes sense. This is one of the most pathetic shows of bad army moral and corruption I’ve seen in my entire life. There weren’t enough troops willing and able to fight to even make a stand at the capital.
I don’t see how Hezbollah or Iran or even Russia could have saved Assad from an army this bad. The Syrians had to be able to at least slow the enemy down. Hezbollah and Russia no longer had significant numbers of ground forces in the country and couldn’t get enough there soon enough.
This is terrible for Lebanon, Palestine, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Russia likely loses its Med port and airfield (if they don’t, that will be very interesting); Hezbollah lose its land route for supplies and Iran its easy ability to reach its allies. Let this be a lesson about what happens when you allow frozen conflicts. Syria was cut off from its oil fields, that was allowed to stand, and without any real fiscal capacity the Syrian military became even weaker and more corrupt.
I hope the new conquerors of Syria are more tolerant than I expect them to be.
Israel will seize another chunk of Syria. Tanks are already attacking into Syria from the Golan Heights.
Huge victory for Turkey here. I’d like to think Turkish proxy forces would help Palestine, but Erdogan has been all talk, no action so far when it comes to Gaza. This would allow him to cut off oil supplies to Israel if he wants to though.
The Kurds are going to get it in the throat, which is what happens when you ally with Israel and the US.
No tears for Assad, mind you.
Soredemos
The collapse was so sudden I’m wondering how much was prearranged, at least by some parties, if not necessarily by Syria and Assad themselves. Was Russia caught flat footed and unable to assist and prevent the collapse, or was the collapse accelerated because Russia shifted its loyalties behind the scenes and gave up on Assad?
They did launch airstrikes, but perhaps that was for show, or maybe they changed their minds after starting. Only time will help to clear things up. We’ll have to see if they keep operating the port, negotiating with the new regime to keep it open. That would perhaps offer a clue to if there was backroom dealing to abandon Assad.
Regardless of any possible geostrategic games being played, nothing short of a tragedy for the people of Syria.
And possibly the most duplicitous media display I can recall. Worse even than with Ukraine and Nazis. Literal Al-Qaeda are being portrayed as either having always been moderate rebels (that phrase), or reformed and their terrorist days merely a ‘phase’. Will the media cover it when the new regime settles in and starts setting policies of headchopping religious minorities and repressing women? I doubt it. It’ll be everything the Taliban does but probably five times worse, but we won’t hear much about it if ‘liberated Syria’ is the narrative DC wants to push.
Syria is fucked, Gaza is fully solidified in being genocided, Lebanon fighting will probably start up again before long, Iraq is seemingly useless in general. Iran tried being clever through use of proxies and gradual escalation. They should have just gone for the throat early (I’m not sure what such a move looks like, but in Syria, finish Idlib for a start).
KT Chong
More migrant crises for Europe.
someofparts
Much more than a migrant crisis KTC, a gruesome step backward for all of us.
That realignment into a new cold war configuration that Ian speaks of continues, but I guess the border lines between the blocks are going to be different now.
When it comes to being liars the Turks don’t have to take a back seat to Americans. When I think of the hours of footage in those historical dramas portraying themselves as brave and noble it makes me want to gag. In reality it seems that wealthy Turkish elites will lick Satan’s jockstrap for a few shekels. A pox on that rat-faced Erdogan and his repulsive pal Bibi.
Poul
Soredemos, it’s not unusual. If one side just want to run away it’s over quickly. Like the fall of Mosul 800-1200 IS fighters vs 30000-60000 Iraqi army and police. IS won.
The interesting bit will be if HTS goes for Lebanon or they have become a National Syrian Salafist movement only. Israel could also try to eliminate Hezbollah as a fighting force for good with a new invasion. Or a partnership between the two.
Given Hezbollah has taken Israeli cease-fire violations with little responds they must have been hit harder by the cell-phone terror attacks than we have thought until now.
KT Chong
The strategy and execution have actually been brilliant:
Step 1: Took out the leadership of Hezbollah with remote explosives in pagers and then walkie-talkies. Cut off the head. Then, replace and infiltrate Hezbollah leadership with Israeli assets and plants.
Step 2: Took out Syria when Hezbollah is weakened and unable to effectively and quickly respond.
Step 3: Then, circle back to Lebanon that is now cut off from Iran. Finish off Hezbollah.
Step 4: Next, Iran is going down too.
China has stayed awfully quiet… I think the birthplace of Sun Tzu might have figured out the strategy and calculated Syria, Lebanon and Iran are all gone and lost causes.
KT Chong
Holy crap, Europe is gonna be flooded with refugees from Syria, Lebanon AND Iran. Yikes.
Oakchair
There is the cliche in movies/books where the protagonist has the antagonist down and then runs away without ending it. Low and behold the antagonist gets up regroups and attacks again.
The lesson is the same as Russia not finishing Ukraine in 2014, Syria et al not finishing Al-Qaeda, and Iran et al half-assing the war with Israel.
It could be argued that each one to various degrees lacked the capacity to defeat their enemies, but I don’t know if that argument would hold much water.
It is revealing though how the groups the Western media call Evil (Russia, Syria, Iran) are the ones who resemble good guys in movies who annoyingly refuse to actually fight the bad guys because fighting is immoral.
“If you’re not careful the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed and loving the people who are doing the oppressing.” —-Malcolm X
Which domestic people have the oligarch controlled media made you hate so much you that you won’t listen to them or bother to take their issue seriously?
Carborundum
A couple of comments:
1) I don’t think we should necessarily be modelling a Syrian unitary state in predicting what is going to happen – I strongly suspect that what we’re going to see is continued partition. To that end, I could potentially see the US and Israel seeking to establish some sort of zone of control in Western Syria to buffer the Golan via proxies. I would also not be at all surprised to see the Russians continue to hold Tartus (I suspect the AFB is less valuable to them in the absence of the Assad regime) – this is a valuable chip for any power structure holding it, which will be offshore balancing like a mofo. I think this similarly makes continued external support for the Kurds more rather than less likely as the external parties seek to bound Turkey and maintain a valuable diplomatic chip.
2) The IDF incursion is being described as occupation of the buffer zone, with some “additional areas”. (I would guess up at the Northern end, where the current UNDOF boundary results in some quite unfavourable terrain configurations.) Moving significantly beyond the buffer zone boundary doesn’t get one a lot beyond distance, given that the dominant terrain feature for a fair distance (a small ridgeline) is behind current Israeli positions. I’d be very surprised if they haven’t also moved to take Quneitra proper, given that the UNDOF base on the Israeli side is immediately to the West and there is reporting that UNDOF OPs are getting lit up.
3) I’m curious how this development is thought to improve Turkey’s ability to blockade Israel’s crude imports.
4) I shall weep hot bitter tears for Iran and Russia. I’m sure Bashar has enough billions salted away that none of us should feel bad for him at all.
Daniel Lynch
Agree with everything Ian said, but will add that people are not going to fight for a cause unless they have something to believe in, and apparently few Syrians believed in Syria, with its basketcase economy, corrupt government (not that there are any non-corrupt governments in the ME), and religious and ethnic divisions. There was no moral cause to fight for, no economic cause to fight for, and no strong national identity to fight for (lots of people like to diss nationalism but let this be a lesson in what can happen when there is no strong national identity. People are going to identify with SOMETHING — nation, class, religion, clan, or ethnic group . Choose carefully).
Sure, the NATO-backed jihadists will probably be worse than Assad, especially for non-Sunnis, but lesser-evil-ism is not something people are willing to die for.
I don’t think this is a loss for Russia. If anything, Syria was sort of a liability for Russia, just as U.S. foreign bases are a liability for the U.S., if we are honest. Foreign meddling requires resources that might be better used at home. Why would Russia want to immerse itself in a religious war halfway around the globe?
Revelo
I’m not so sure Kurds will suffer. Iran and Russia both understand that the Kurds have long been in a difficult situation and so had to look fir allies wherever they could find them. Kurds are not like Georgia, which had no good reason for allying with USA.
The question is whether Kurds will betray Iran and Russia in the future, assuming Iran and Russia help them now. Unlikely, because if Kurds are allowed to fight for Kurdistan carved from Iraq, Syria and Türkiye, that Kurdistan will be very dependent on Iran and Russia forever. Carving out such a Kurdistan is strongly in Iran’s and Russia’s interests. Türkiye piece hr Kurdistan can wait, if Iran and Russia don’t want conflict with Türkiye immediately.
Revelo
As for why Syria fell so fast, it’s same story as Iraq. CIA has an excellent reputation in that part of the world for carrying through with promised bribes and bribing is easier than ever thanks to bitcoin.
mago
Water boils suddenly, but it sits on the fire for some time first. This happened bang bang bang, but the perps obviously had it planned for a while.
Interesting that the media accounts I’ve read so far are portraying this as a win for Syria and the region. Wtf?
I’m with someofparts.
marku52
Started off with a massive strategic mistake by HIzB. With no air defense, Lebanon was bombed into HizB submission. Israel didn’t’ win, but HizB lost. And with no more HIzB missiles into Israel, the time was right to launch the Syrian offensive, which had to have been planned for months. another strategic mistake, a massive intel failure.
And apparently Syria was rotting from within. Their army melted away. There is talk at Moon , Johnson, and Martyanov that Russia had been urging Assad to make negotiations with the more moderate opponents, but he refused. And so the end was written. “We can’t do your fighting for you.”
With no land bridge for arms, HizB is done. And so the Palestinian people as a race will be erased from this earth. This is a massive win for the Empire.
different clue
No, the Palestinian people as a race will not be erased from this earth. They may be denied national statehood for centuries to come, but they will establish a Diaspora capable of lasting thousands of years, just like the Jews have.
And maybe 2,000 years from now, when nobody expects it, they may found and launch a Palestionist Movement of their very own.