I’ve noticed something interesting. Every time I write about what might be done to stop the Israeli genocide, actions which would require serious fighting, people say “well I understand whey they don’t want to do that because Israel will bomb the hell out of them.”
And that’s true (though not as true when it comes to Iran, which has plenty of effective AD.)
The issue here is that there’s a genocide going on. My estimate for casualties is over half a million, and other people are starting to make the same estimates. For the past two months Israel has basically let no food into Northern Gaza. The number at the end will probably be over a million dead.
So you’re either willing to do what it takes to stop it, or you aren’t. Both Hezbollah and Iran pulled their punches and let Israel set the tempo of engagement, choosing when and where to fight, instead of engaging it when Hamas still had a viable fighting force. Iran had the missile capacity to wreck Israel’s air defense and air bases. Instead they let their proxies fight alone, and that went very badly for them.
With the fall of Syria, well, it’s no longer possible to stop the genocide. Senior Iranian leadership told their juniors they were going to intervene, then didn’t.
At least half a million people are going to die because no one was willing to do what it took to stop it.
It’s unfair this was on Iran and Hezbollah. It’s an amazing indictment of every great power in the world, and the local Arab states that none of them did anything meaningful to stop a genocide and that many helped the genocide along.
As for Iran, they themselves have pointed out that one has to resist America and Israel wherever they attack, because the plan is to end up taking out Iran. Khameini, if he hasn’t already, needs to get his head out of his ass and build nukes. And if Russia and China want to keep Iran as part of their great alliance, they need to take action.
As for Hezbollah, well, they’re cut off from land resupply from Iran. Israel and America will get to them. Playing everything cautiously did not work.
America is falling, there is no question about that. But Empire’s rarely go quiet into the night. The Age of War and Revolution continues.
Daniil Adamov
I think the simplest explanation is that none of the leaderships involved consider what is happening to the Palestinians to be their top priority, as you evidently do. Maybe they care, but less than about their own or their people’s safety. Maybe they don’t give a damn. Either way, the outcome is the same, and I can’t say I am surprised about that much.
Speaking of genocides, the Holocaust wasn’t very important to the Allies during WW2 either, even when reports of it started filtering in. The plight of the Jews was not the top priority for anyone (except perhaps for Hitler, but in a different way), and that was not surprising either.
I respect your attempts to understand the world as it is, but I notice that you frequently seem to write with the assumption that helping the Palestinians is the main objective for everyone opposed or claiming to be opposed to Israel, by default. I am not sure that this is helpful for the stated goal, any more than analysing China’s economic policy with the a priori assumption that it is based on opposition to capitalism.
someofparts
Being able to do something, or not, applies to all of us. Laith Marouf made that point. Any of us in major north American cities could take action against local companies that contribute to the problem. Lockheed is in my town. I should be down there with bolt cutters and jackhammers trashing their runways. I don’t because I don’t have the skills or the connections to pull off such a thing. Taking action would mean being willing to be a martyr, jailed or worse for the rest of my days. I am too cowardly to do that.
All of us have those options and all of us have our reasons for staying in place and being cautious. I watched Syriana again yesterday. It reminded me that we most certainly killed Assad’s oldest son. There is a reason his youngest is safely in Russia. How does anyone stand up to people who can and will murder your family if you resist them?
Wow – this is off topic but I just heard it from Doug Macgregor on Judge Napolitano’s show – Russia has announced that any of their citizens currently in the US should leave the country. I was only kidding about getting out of this city but maybe I should take the matter more seriously. Congratulations on not being a US resident Ian.
Ian Welsh
Oh, it’s clear that stopping the genocide isn’t their top priority, except maybe for the Houthis. But not saving Syria is going to bite Iran and Hezbollah hard and letting Israel win is a mistake.
The problem is “half assing”. If you don’t want to help the Palestinians, don’t, and make peace with the Israelis. Iran’s policies have been very anti-Israel, but it won’t back it up when push comes to shove.
I also think that they stood a good chance of stopping the genocide and defeating Israel, but to do so they had to go “all in.”
Again, a mistake. Kiss their asses or be their enemies. Choose.
A large part of why we live in Hell is that enough of us won’t take the hits to do the right things.