Actuaries are probably the world’s foremost experts on risk. The Institute & Faculty of Actuaries has weighed in on the likely effects of climate change (pdf):
They expect this between 2050 and 2070, but it appears to be based on reaching over 2 degrees increase. I’d personally expect it sooner. Whatever the case, 2 billion deaths is one of the more extreme numbers I’ve seen from a mainstream source. (I personally expect at least half of the world’s population to die.)
By 2070 to 2090 they expect as much as a 50% loss of GDP.
The global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090, unless immediate policy action on risks posed by the climate crisis is taken. Populations are already impacted by food system shocks, water insecurity, heat stress and infectious diseases. If unchecked, mass mortality, mass displacement, severe economic contraction and conflict become more likely.
I think the simplest and most important quote is this one:
Our society and economy fundamentally depend on the Earth system which provides essentials such as food, water, energy and raw materials.
A lot of people seem to miss that the economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment. Mother nature has the final say on everything.
As long as we’re banging on about climate change, this lovely little chart shows the effects on precipitation of climate change. (Hotter air means more water in the air, and thus more rain and snow.) In other words, expect more floods, mudslides and so on. Notice that the slope appears to be accelerating.
Remember, realism is not pessimism.
Joan
I live in a cold place (-34C/-30F today). The winter of 2022-23 was my first one after moving, and the city hit their all-time record for snowfall.
I was confused, thinking surely they’d hit records of all-time *little* snowfall with climate change. But the locals seemed to believe they got that much snow (4m/12ft) because it was actually super warm compared to their normal winters. Usually snow was an autumn & spring event, not winter. By the time winter sets in, it gets so cold it stops snowing.