to storm Mubarak’s mansion. It’s him, or them and he’s made it clear that he’d rather it was them. And if the protests fail, a lot of them, including the women, are going to spend a lot of time being tortured.
to storm Mubarak’s mansion. It’s him, or them and he’s made it clear that he’d rather it was them. And if the protests fail, a lot of them, including the women, are going to spend a lot of time being tortured.
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Tom Hickey
I suspect that the people get it. The revolutionaries — yes this is a revolt — have to make the army choose between a corrupt government and the people. The people are betting that the army will choose them over the corrupt government and an aged dictator whose son has already fled the country.
But it is not a sure thing by any means. I suspect that Mubarak strengthened the spine of the people be appointing the head of the intelligence services to the office of PM. That sends a signal that there will be a terrible crackdown if the revolt fails. I don’t think there is any going back. Now it seems to rest with the army.
anon2525
If he isn’t ousted, then he will choose his successor, whether it is his son or somebody else. That is why he is playing for time.
anon2525
And when will the u.s. media give WikiLeaks some credit for providing some of the spark?
SNL parody of Assange has him saying in December: “The leaks did not inspire revolution, as I had hoped….”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFAxIH_H4PI
Celsius 233
testing
Celsius 233
by Ian Welsh
to storm Mubarak’s mansion. It’s him, or them and he’s made it clear that he’d rather it was them. And if the protests fail, a lot of them, including the women, are going to spend a lot of time being tortured.
============================================
Spot on and at least some are very aware of what losing this revolt will cost them.
This is why I’ve been saying, “We’ll see…”
This is far from over; not all the players are in yet. One way or the other, I think this public revolt will be over by Monday at the latest.
It does seem to hinge on which way the army will go.
I think the U.S. is probably done for as a major influence in the M.E. and possibly S. Asia as well.
lambert strether
It might be simpler if Mubarak suffered a terrible boating accident while taking a well-deserved vacation at Sharm El Sheikh.
* * *
Seriously, I can’t imagine they haven’t considered that. If they aren’t, there are probably sound reasons for it.
lambert strether
In a way, the protesters, exactly by being leaderless and yet making a single simple demand (“Leave!”) have thrown the steering wheel out of the car in this big game of chicken. There is nobody for Mubarak to negotiate with! I think (hope, would pray if I could) that if the Tienanman solution were going to happen, it would already happened.
What El Baradei should do is hire a helicopter, fill it with food, medicine, and a couple of Port-o-Sans, land in the square, and refuse to leave. That might do it. He’d need a satellite phone that wasn’t jammable, of course.
lambert strether
Oh, and Global Guerillas agrees on storming the palace. Dunno. It’s way the heck out in the burbs.
Ian Welsh
Don’t matter. It has to be done. Time is no longer favoring the protestors, they need to force the issue. If the military doesn’t intervene, storming the palace wins it for them, and if the military is going to intervene they’re sunk anyway. If the security services can hold them off, they must be made to do so in a very bloody fashion, again forcing the military to make a decision.
Not pretty, but then revolutions often aren’t and once you start against someone like Mubarak you have to be willing to go all the way, unless you want a future of thumbscrews.
Just sitting in the square won’t be enough. If El Baradei wants to lead, he should call for a march on the palace and lead it himself if he can avoid custody.
They should also see if they can bring in the construction workers and the heavy machinery. Cats are essentially tanks.
Celsius 233
lambert strether
Ian Welsh
Yup, yup, and yup!
Times running out for the Egyptians; act now or die!
David Kowalski
Yahoo is reporting that the military intervened on the side of the protesters, sweeping the thugs out of the square. The prime Minister of all people is lamenting that things went too far. Who exactly is backing Mubarak at this point? Part of the police, some form of secret police by the looks of it. A relative handful of supporters in a country of 80 million. Inertia. The Israelis. Commodity speculators and the IMF.
Can someone loosen the dead hand of the IMF and their Freidmanite policies for looting countries large and small, poor and semi-rich?
Morocco Bama
Can someone loosen the dead hand of the IMF and their Freidmanite policies for looting countries large and small, poor and semi-rich?
Sure we could, but it would require all of us, throughout the world, to stand up and say this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_qgVn-Op7Q
Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Algeria can’t do this alone. This can’t be done by proxy with us cheering them on in front of our computer screens.
Let’s shut these son of a bitches out and down once and for all. And not just shut them down and out, but bring them all to Justice via a People’s Court. We have the prisons, let’s replace the petty drug users and small time dealers who comprise the majority of our prison population with the real criminals. Screw the corrupt judicial system. It doesn’t administer Justice. If Justice goes to the highest bidder, it’s not Justice, and Laws are rendered irrelevant at best, and an insult at worst.
Plus, I love Faye Dunaway….I always have…. and I’m as mad as hell that she didn’t marry me.
Morocco Bama
The World Maggot Forum is meeting in Davos, shortly. That’s as good a place as any to start.
alyosha
..I suspect that Mubarak strengthened the spine of the people be appointing the head of the intelligence services to the office of PM. That sends a signal that there will be a terrible crackdown if the revolt fails.
Maybe, but one of the points of appointing Suleiman (the security chief) was to demonstrate that Mubarek’s son will not succeed Mubarak. Everyone one feared a Mubarek dynasty, and this appointment defuses that fear, and is a bit of a concession to the opposition. I’ve heard that it was actually Mubarek’s wife who was more interested in seeing Jamal, his son succeed, than Mubarek himself. And the son demonstrated to the public that he has no concept of real reform, his colors are known.
It is up to the army to decide Mubarek’s fate, and a provocation like rushing the palace is a way to force the army’s hand.
lambert strether
Analyst on AJ: March to palace means they’re strung out over two kilometers and leave their base in the square (where media coverage is, too). Now, you can argue, “the people will come to their aid along the way,” so its OK, still it’s a big decision (that we can safely leave to them).
Also, Suleiman’s interview seems to indicate: (a) an ancien-regime-level of disconnect, and (b) splits in the elite. If the end game is splitting the army horizontally (say), is a march on the palace the best way to do that? I’m not sure. I think also there’s another wild card, which is what’s happening in other cities, and as a result how thinly spread the army and the security forces are.
This reminds me of what, back in my software development days, I would call “an overly dynamic situation.”
Bottom line for me is that what we need to do is watch and learn (and support as we can) but that advice from us isn’t really appropriate….
lambert strether
Here is the single best post I’ve read on the security services, and it’s chilling. The news hook is Tienanman Square, but read all the way to the end for the analysis of jobs at good wages in the security services.
Formerly T-Bear
Not only are the super rich not like normal people, they are vastly misunderstood too.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12352177
So put aside your jealousy, WEF @ Davos is required participation, like it or not.
Notorious P.A.T.
I think Ian’s right. But where is Mubarak? I read that he fled the city.
Petro
@Formally T-Bear
That really hurt. Normally, I thank people for links, but, ah, I don’t know…
Seriously, I don’t watch the teevee and seeing tripe like that going out for general consumption… well, like I said, painful.
Paraphrase: “We need them like they need us.” Oy!