The headline number you’ll be hearing is 663,000, which is from the survey of businesses (the establishment survey). The population survey (where they call households) show’s a reduction in employment of 861,000 jobs, with 161,000 leaving the workforce, for a total increase in unemployment of 694,000 (you aren’t counted as unemployed if you’ve given up looking.)
The official unemployment rate jumped from 8.1 to 8.5%.
The only sector still adding jobs is the health sector, though not by much. Goods producing workers are being hammered, taking almost half the losses despite accounting for less than a sixth of the economy. The US continues to shed precisely those jobs it needs in order to deal with its addiction to borrowing from foreigners to buy foreign produced goods.
The establishment survey is generally considered more accurate, though the household captures losses and gains of self-employed workers.
Employment is generally considered a lagging indicator, and the general consensus at this point amongst economists is that the leading indicators are beginning to turn around. I think they’re calling it a bit early, but I expect that when the “recovery” does come it will initially be a jobless recovery, similar to those of the early 2000 and 90’s recessions. When jobs do start to be created they will not be created fast enough, or in great enough quantities to make up the job losses, and the economy will shake apart due to inflation into the next recession long before all jobs have been regained. I wouldn’t be surprised if this occurs by late 2010 or early 2011, since the actual stimulus spending is neither sufficient nor well put together.
Remember that any “recovery” won’t hit you for quite some time unless you’re attached somehow to the spigot of money that Bernanke and Geithner are spewing into the financial sector.
In the meantime I’d expect that we’re going to see quite a few more devastating months. I wouldn’t expect to see any job gains before 2010. and they won’t be very large. I would, however, expect to start seeing some inflation in parts of the economy, while deflation continues in other areas.
ballgame
Discovered your site from your Majikthise comment; glad to see you’re still around and posting, Ian. Are you still with FDL? (If this is not an appropriate topic for discussion, please feel free to spike this comment.)
Eureka Springs
As someone who gave up looking in about 2002 or has been underemployed most of the time since then (Try opening a retail business the week of 9-11)…. I suspect nobody asks about my status intentionally. Reich nailed it in a very *Ianesque* manner at TPM today.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robert_reich/2009/04/its-a-depression.php
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle
It’s one of the reasons that it will eventually get very ugly. The jobs aren’t coming back. It will be another jobless recovery. Obama said a few weeks ago(when the last report came out) that he wasn’t going to put up with many more of these type of jobs report numbers. What, exactly, will he do about it?
Ian Welsh
ballgame. I stepped down as FDL’s managing editor effective February 28th. I haven’t officially left as an author, but I’m not writing much for them, most of my writing I’m doing here and at Huffington Post. That may change at some point, not sure, kind of enjoying the “break” of just writing what I feel like when I feel like.
Calvin: he already chose not to do what was necessary about it when he had a bad stimulus plan, and then chose to spend trillions on the financial sector rather than the economy proper.