If this is true, the drone shot down by Israel was from Hezbollah.
Drones are cheap. They are just big radio controlled planes. They cost nothing compared to a jet fighter, and the technology is not hard. Islamic Jihad claims they might have one (who knows). Hezbollah is sophisticated, they built their own telecom network, for example, and tapped into Israeli soldiers cell-phones in the last war. They won the e-lint battle in that war.
Drones will spread, they are a poor man’s air force. They suck compared to jets, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise, but they are cheap, easy to make and easy to operate. This is only the beginning.
(MFI has up a commentary worth reading, as well.)
markfromireland
It may have been from the Hizb who have a record of successfully penetrating Israeli airspace during the latest Israeli invasion of Lebanon using drones. The original report (Arabic Language) from al-Mayadeen is here here what’s interesting is how long it took the Israelis to detect it and then to intercept it. Al-Mayadeen quotes Ehud Barak as saying that he was instituting an enquiry into why the Israeli radar systems failed to detect it in time.
You’re right that drones are a poor man’s weapon. But then so is a car bomb or a roadside bomb powerful enough to wreck a tank killing the occupants or a katyusha come to that. An effective weapon is one that is only as accurate and as deadly as it needs to be.
My hunch (and it’s only a hunch) is that it was unarmed and that it was indeed from the Hizb who used it both to garner intelligence and to fire a warning shot. Nasrallah has repeatedly said the next war they would conduct operations inside Israel itself. He has a habit of making his promises come true.
mfi
markfromireland
Small correction. The person saying that a commission of enquiry into why the Israeli radars failed was being set up was an Israeli army spokesman not Ehud Barak.
The relevant paragraph is here:
وكان وزير الدفاع الإسرائيلي إيهود باراك أكد أن إسرائيل “تنظر بخطورة إلى محاولة إنتهاك مجالها الجوي”، مشيداً بعملية إسقاط الطائرة واصفاً إياها بـ”الناجحة” علماً “أن الرادارات الإسرائيلية المنتشرة على حدود قطاع غزة فشلت في توجيه الطائرات إلى إسقاط الطائرة إلا بعد مرور وقت طويل، مما أتاح لها إختراق الأجواء والوصول إلى مسافات بعيدة في العمق الإسرائيلي” بحسب ناطق باسم الجيش الإسرائيلي قال “إنه تم تشكيل لجنة تحقيق لمعرفة أسباب فشل الرادارات”.
mfi
Formerly T-Bear
Al Jazeera reported this last night:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/10/201210616345574876.html
some salt required.
steeleweed
Re: detection:
Radar is useful for detecting incoming at altitude but is really is possible to ‘fly under the radar’. My hunch is that this was a probe of IDF’s ability to detect/destroy. In a combat situation, a flood of cheap drones could overwhelm defenses simply by sheer numbers. Imagine 1000 drones, each pre-programmed for a target and once homed in, operating independently from GPS or external control so that Electronic CounterMeasures would be ineffective…
DWBartoo
Yes, Ian, drones are NOT weapons of the powerful … and they now have the full blessing and “support” of the USA in their use, when ever, where ever, and on whom ever their “owners” might wish to use them.
Soon enough, they will be all the rage, ubiquitous, “affordable” … If Henry Ford’s “T” model put a portion of the world on wheels, then let it be understood that drones bring mayhem into everyone’s home, up-close and VERY impersonally.
War-at-a-“distance” is, now, within everyone’s “grasp”.
Brave new world, old dead people … and anyone could be “next”.
DW
Morocco Bama
.
There are so many uses for these wonderfully efficient and effective devices. They’re coming up with new functions for them every day. Here’s the latest. Don’t let a little thing like a Disaster get you down. Drones to the rescue.
OpenRelief gives drones a humanitarian purpose.
A campaign slogan for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
A Drone In Every Pot
From chickens to drones…we’ve come a long way, and yet, we haven’t moved an inch.
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Formerly T-Bear
Another source reporting yesterday as well:
http://mondoweiss.net/2012/10/israeli-air-force-shoots-down-unidentified-drone-over-negev.html
Some of the comments are worth noting as the site does extensive reporting of the region.
Synoia
That’s very doubtful. Jets are expensive to build, expensive to operate – they drink fuel, generally have a large radar cross section, and emit a lot of heat.
As interceptors they have no peer. For many tasks they are too fast and have too limited endurance.
Morocco Bama
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Drones are to Occupations what Jets are to Invasions. Occupations take the majority of the time, therefore Drones will rule most of the day. Warfare’s changing, so too is the equipment. Pretty soon it won’t be Where Have All The Cowboys Gone, but instead Where Have All The Jet Fighter Pilots Gone. Video Game Geeks are the Heroes of the future.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPR108kwNo4
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Stormcrow
Yes, they’ll spread, like wildfire.
This is just the beginning of a technical arms race. Right now, I think it’s probable closest relative was the arms race in manned aircraft between 1914 and 1990.
And you know who won THAT arms race.
So don’t expect drone airforces to last long in the hands of entities which don’t have the organic capacity to push the limits of their physical technology (speed, weapons load, maneuverability, armor, range, etc) and their information technology (capacity of the onboard computer(s), programming, onboard encryption, encryption of signals to/from ground, etc).
And of course, they’ll need the ability to roll out what they’ve discovered to what, by that time, will be fleets of hundreds of thousands of unmanned military drone aircraft.
Lisa Simeone
Love it, MB. Am going to steal it.
Morocco Bama
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Go ahead, Lisa, it’s yours. It’s all ours. My stuff is your stuff is our stuff is as free as the air that we breath….and even that won’t be free for long.
.
Celsius 233
Drones are not weapons of the powerful
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hmm, that statement gives me pause; namely, it’s a weapon of both. A country like America put’s it out there as a cheap (relatively) way to kill people.
A country like Syria, Iran, or Pakistan may find it a viable way for revenge or intimidation.
Generally we get back the thing we put out; so, this doesn’t bode well, yes?
Lisa Simeone
Celsius, think of it as poetic justice.
Everythings Jake
Is it a sign that I’ve grown too cynical that my immediate reaction was false flag operation used to justify a strike against Iran?
Petro
No – it’s a sign that you’re not quite yet where you need to be, that you asked the question.
😉
Celsius 233
Nice article over at Tom Dispatch which seems taylor made for this thread;
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175602/tomgram%3A_engelhardt%2C_disaster_on_autopilot/?utm_source=TomDispatch&utm_campaign=b1b9b39c69-TD_Engelhardt10_9_2012&utm_medium=email#more
jo6pac
The worlds sheeple are head to this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIM1DsGoXbY
How sad for the future citizens of the little blus sphere hurling through space. Greed the bottom line.
John Puma
“Hezbollah says it sent Iranian-built drone over Israel”
http://tinyurl.com/9eq5hb3
Celsius 233
Curiouser and curiouser; this over at RT;
Downed Hezbollah drone may have relayed intel on secret IDF sites
http://rt.com/news/hezbollah-drone-israel-secrets-403/
Phoenician in a time of Romans
So don’t expect drone airforces to last long in the hands of entities which don’t have the organic capacity to push the limits of their physical technology (speed, weapons load, maneuverability, armor, range, etc) and their information technology (capacity of the onboard computer(s), programming, onboard encryption, encryption of signals to/from ground, etc).
Why?
I mean, an armed force is goal-driven – the point is to develop the capability to impose your will on a potential enemy, even if this is just to inflict an unacceptable hurt on a far superior force.
It doesn’t matter if drones are not the flashiest or best around as long as they get the job done and “the job” can be very limited. Unlike jets, drones aren’t going to be dogfighting, or trying to protect a vulnerable pilot, or expecting to come back. So what if they’re slower or carry less than their technological rivals as long as they can fulfill the task they were designed to do?
Consider – a mortar is an old, untechnologically sophisticated weapon – which is still used in modern armies. Even in the best armies, it’s not cutting edge, and as far as I know, the M120 doesn’t have a computer strapped to it. But it’s still there because it provides cheap, mobile indirect artillery organic to small infantry units – it does its job and doesn’t need to be flash.