Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Ian Welsh Page 2 of 402

Europe Can Have Both A Welfare State & A Warfare State

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On March 20, 2025

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I keep reading about how if Europe increases military spending they’ll have to cut welfare spending.

Let’s look at a little history: back around 1960 West Germany spent 4% of GDP on their military. They were happy to do so. They also had a very generous welfare state. So did most of Western Europe and they were spending a lot on their militaries.

“But Ian,” you exclaim, “that’s not possible. If you have a warfare state, you can’t have a welfare state!”

Here’s the rule. Pick any two of the following three:

  1. A Welfare State.
  2. A Warfare State.
  3. Low Taxes on the rich and corporations.

All it takes to have both a warfare and welfare state is 90% top marginal tax rates and various other taxes and laws designed to force corporations and the rich to invest in actual production and not in rentierism. Strangely, when Europe and the US had those tax rates, they had the best economies in their entire history.

Wonder why none of the pundits suggest going back to the successful warfare/welfare policies of the 50s and 60s?

I guess it’s a mystery.

(Oh, and why did Europe pay less than 2% of GDP on its military in recent decades? Might it have something to do with the fact that the USSR collapsed and there was no actual military threat to Europe?)

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How To Do Tariffs Right (Trump The Moron Edition)

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On March 19, 2025

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One of the ways that Trump reminds me of Bush Jr. is that you never want him to do anything you agree with, because he’ll fuck it up and discredit it. Trump’s tariffs are the platonic essence of fucking up a good idea.

Let’s run thru this:

Companies and individuals need predictability. Everyone has pointed this out, but it’s still true. You can’t lay on new production if you don’t know if the tariffs are here to stay or not.

It takes time to increase production so tariffs should come in like a lamb. Personally I’d have most tariffs increase by 1% every month or two, depending on how long a specific type of production takes to increase, until it reached my target. Companies can’t just spawn in new production, this isn’t a video game.

If you can’t produce it you shouldn’t tariff it unless you have hard currency issues. Mostly self-explanatory: tariffs are used to make domestic production economically viable. If you can never produce it tariffs don’t make sense unless you don’t have enough hard currency to import things you really need, usually capital machinery. This last part doesn’t apply to the US.

If domestic production has a better use, tariffs may be a bad idea. Right now the US is ramping up energy production to it can concentrate on AI. Putting tariffs on Canadian energy is thus stupid, since the US can’t build enough energy fast enough. Related: aluminum production is massively energy intensive. Tariffing Canadian aluminum means you need to use American energy for refining. Is that the best use of American energy right now? (I mean, a case could be made that AI is overhyped bullshit, but Trump isn’t saying that.)

Maybe you want to export goods to another country, and they’ll tariff you if you tariff them. Tariffs often need to be negotiated between countries. If everyone just tariffs everything, that’s the end of international trade. Generally the idea is “you specialize in X, we’ll specialize in Y and we’ll trade.” Comparative advantage is overstated and only works when there are no significant free capital flows, but it’s also true that no one can produce everything they need: not even China right now, or the US in 1950. So “tariffs on everything” is moronic.

Tariffs without industrial policy rarely work. If no one can afford to build up industry, or if the regulatory environment makes it hard, all the tariffs do is increase prices. Biden actually had pretty decent industrial support programs going and Trump is dismantling them. He should, instead, have left them in place while putting strategic tariffs in place to further support them.

Needless to say Trump is bad on all these issues, because he’s a tard.

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Extraordinary Rendition Comes Home To America

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On March 18, 2025

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Oh hey:

The Trump administration has transferred hundreds of immigrants to El Salvador even as a federal judge issued an order temporarily barring the deportations under an 18th century wartime declaration targeting Venezuelan gang members, officials said Sunday. Flights were in the air at the time of the ruling.

“But they’re bad people, Ian” you squeal. “They’re gang members. Bad things should happen to them because they’re bad!”

Well, maybe.

Thing is, we don’t know. The government claimed they were all gang members, but the reason countries have checks and balances, something the US once claimed to be proud of, was to be certain there aren’t miscarriages of justice. People accused of a crime are taken to court, where the truth of said allegations are determined so that somebody with power can’t just make assertions and punish people.

Due process. It’s not a panacea, bad shit still happens to innocent people, but it’s one of the safeguards.

Here’s the issue: if the government had proof that all of these people were gang members and that they could be deported illegally, why not go in front of a judge?

There are only two possible reasons:

  1. They don’t have proof for all of the people, and still want to deport them; or,
  2. They want to set the precedent that they can deport whoever they want just based on an accusation, without the judiciary having any say.

If you’re OK with either of these things, you are an evil piece of human garbage and stupid on top of that. Such people remind me of Red Staters who voted Trump, knowing about DOGE, then were surprised when Musk and Trump took their jobs and Trump decided to destroy American farmers with tariffs and by taking away their immigrant labor base.

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.”

H.L. Mencken

Every right taken from other people will eventually be taken from you. Extraordinary renditions were against non-Americans outside of America, right, so they didn’t matter. When Obama drone killed an American citizen, well  he was a terrorist and he wasn’t in America, so that was OK, right? The people being extradited now are gang members, and not Americans, so it doesn’t matter to you, does it? I mean, we don’t actually know that none of them are Americans are that all are gang members, but you’re a good person, so just like those Trump voters fired by Musk, you’ll be OK.

Right?

Oh, and the Gaza genocide has started up, with confirmation that Trump OK’d it. And that’s just Arabs, right, so it has nothing to do with you and they have it coming or something because they dared fight back, and that’s terrorism when weak people do it.

Right?

Elites who have learned they can get away with genocide would never genocide you.

Right?

As an aside, there is no possible half decent world where America does not lose all its power. Ideally a break up, so that it can never again be even a great power.

May it happen soon.

As for Europe, I’ve written about how they could fix things and reindustrialize, but on a moral basis, it’s hard to think that would be a good thing for the rest of the world, with a few exceptions like Ireland. (Ireland, of course, was the first victim of English colonialism. White niggers.)

My guess is that Europe’s leaders don’t have what it takes to turn Europe around though.

Oh well. *Sound of massive cheers from every country they colonized and enslaved and now lecture on human rights.*

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Every Administration Since Obama Has Been Bombing Yemen, Yet…

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On March 17, 2025

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Something similar could be said about almost all Western policies except those which make the rich richer. “Is the policy working? No. Are we going to continue? Yes.”

Here’s the thing, AnsarAllah is the only nation in the world taking military action to try and stop the Israeli genocide of Palestinians. During the ceasefire, they stopped attacking ships trading with Israel. When Israel cut off all food and aid, they gave Israel four days warning: restore the aid or we start the attacks again.

Then they did, and then Trump figured that he’d start bombing Yemen again, which won’t do a damn thing except kill a few more people. The Yemenis genuinely don’t give a fuck, they’ve been bombed to hell and back again for the better part of two decades. Unless someone wants to invade and occupy the country, which would take troops in the six figures, I’d guess, there isn’t a damn thing military force will accomplish.

It is tiresome to keep saying this, but Israel, with the full support of many countries, including Britain, Germany and most importantly America (and my own nation, Canada, not that our help amounts to anything) is committing red letter genocide. There is no question about this, it is not “complicated” and there is no possibility of being a moral person, or even not a complete fucking waste of human skin, if you support genocide.

As for Yemen and AnsarAllah, they appear to be the only nation in the world which is fully moral in this respect, and the only nation in the world fully living up to the requirement for nations to actively try and stop genocide. There isn’t much that they can do, given their geography (though they’ve said that if other nations are willing to let their troops thru, they’ll send them, and I believe them) but what they can do, they are doing.

The Biden administration tried to bribe them. They offered full removal of sanctions, recognition of AnsarAllah and lots of money. Yemen refused.

I’m not even close to AnsarAllah ideologically, but I am reluctantly forced to say that I admire them and Yemen more than any other country in the world for the uncompromising refusal to look the other way and do nothing when there is something they can do.

As for the West, with a few exceptions like Ireland and Spain, we have proved ourselves irredeemably evil, not so much because we refuse to act against Israel, but because we actively help this genocide along. We have no moral figleafs left, we are revealed to the world for the monsters we are.

Perhaps China has done nothing, but at least they aren’t sending Israel weapons, and they have the bare decency to deplore the genocide. We can’t even manage that, but instead are arresting those who dare stand up and even say “genocide is bad.”

Pathetic.

Let us hope there is no just God. If there is, let us tremble for our nations.

Update:

The U.S. Navy has used more missiles for air defense since combat operations in the Red Sea began in October 2023 than the service used in all the years since Operation Desert Storm in the 1990s…

… the Navy will need years to replenish its supply of missiles…

…The Navy also revealed in January that it had fired 160 rounds from ships’ five-inch main guns as part of combat operations in the Red Sea. Those main gun rounds have been used to destroy Houthi drones, Clark said.

“They have been using guns to shoot down drones lately,” Clark said.

Not only are the 5-inch rounds less expensive than missiles, but the Houthi drones often fly too low or too close to the ship to be hit with missiles, Clark said.

“What often happens is these really small drones get close enough to where the missile can’t really engage in time, because the missile has a minimum range, also,” Clark said.

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Open Thread

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On March 15, 2025

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Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

The End of Empire: The Anger, Glee and Despair Tango

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On March 14, 2025

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“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”

This statement is—wrong-ish.

For decades various people have been predicting what is happening now: the end of the American empire, the late Imperial wars, the despair and poverty of late-imperial rentier capitalism, and the rise of China.

Indeed a lot of people (your host included) were screaming about this 30 years ago. I read my first book on the way that America was turning to Gilded Age plus inequality in 1986. Everyone who wasn’t stupid, bought or ideologically captured could see what neoliberalism would lead to. From the late 90s we yelled about sending the West’s industry to the West, but hey, it was the “End of History” and capitalism and democracy had won and it didn’t matter where industry was because “comparative advantage” was, and still is, completely misunderstood, as were the constituents of state power.

So—it’s all happening now, along with massive wildfires from climate change and it seems like for decades nothing happened, but really, it was all happening: without deliberate policy choices, these weeks wouldn’t be possible.

The key to making accurate predictions is simply asking “what must happen if the current course continues, and will the course continue.” In 2009, when Obama decided he’d rather have a couple mansions and Hollywood friends than be the next FDR, and massively increase fracking to top it off, it became clear that the course would continue and all this became inevitable. Realistically, the rise of China was locked in when they were allowed to join the WTO and climate change was locked in when Reagan tore down the solar panels on the White House roof.

So it’s been a very easy time to make accurate long term predictions, much as Keynes, upon seeing the post-WWI peace deal was able to predict WWII and the end of the British Empire. It still had to play out, but everyone with sense knew it was inevitable.

Most of the time I’m sanguine about all this, but every once in a while despair and anger at all the harm which was so easily predicted and which could have been avoided wells up. Other times it’s glee: the fall of the American Empire will occasion a lot of horrid events, but unless you’re American or perhaps European, it’s hard to be sad, especially as we witness genocide in both Gaza and Syria, and witness huge homeless camps.

I was sent this video to watch, and it’s so typical of America these days:

Kind of hard to feel sorrow at the end of an Empire which treats even its own citizens this way. Meanwhile China deliberately crashed its own over-inflated housing market when the CCP noticed that too many people couldn’t afford their own homes any more, and is moving to mostly state-built housing. Tell me more about how awful “Communism” is. Nor are they shipping Israel arms and supporting genocide. (No, the Ughuirs are not being genocided, though they are discriminated against.)

If you’re feeling similar emotions, well, that’s understandable and no big deal. Just remember, the world is always and has always been shit for a lot of people, all that’s changing is who, and in a couple decades, how many. But there’s still delicious food, beautiful scenery, and love is just as sweet. All the good still exists, and your sorrow and pain does not help other people, and hurts you.

Live, enjoy, and perhaps allow yourself some happiness at the good amidst all the evil.

 

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The End Of The American Brain Drain

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On March 13, 2025

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This admission of abject surrender and powerlessness from Colombia University is something I appreciate. Some actual honesty:

America’s in the middle of another of spasmodic crackdown on the free speech like McCarythism or the Red Scare. In this case so that Israel can commit genocide because a controlling number of American elites are scared of Israel, in many cases most likely because Israel has proof they’re baby-fuckers. (Can you say “Epstein”?)

The slightly less depraved ones are just scared of AIPAC funding their opponents. Others genuinely love the idea of mass murder, and probably have screenshots of dead Palestinians and Israeli soldiers wearing Palestinian women’s underwear saved for times when their palms get sweaty and they started breathing fast.

But, let’s bring this back to the more usual themes of this blog. There’s another interesting news story: it seems there’s a bill proposed to ban all Chinese students from studying in America.

Sweeeeet.

You know one of the main reasons why the US took the tech lead so decisively before and after World War II? A massive influx of European scientists and intelligentista, many Jewish, but plenty not. The smartest people in the world disproportionately wanted to live in America.

This continued for generations: you’d be some other nation, you’d train up smart people, educate them, and the ungrateful fucks would go to the US to finish their education, then stay in America. Endlessly frustrating for everyone but America.

So, of course, current American elites, scratching under their armpits, hooting about foreigners, grunting out “Uhmerika, grate” have decided to add to their broad attack on research, brains, intelligence, universities, teachers and books by banning even more smart people coming from other countries.

They will glare at you and tell you it’s “so them Chinese fellers can’t learn our secrets.”

Weird thing, last survey I saw had the Chinese leading in 89% of tech fields, up from 80% and there are more top Chinese AI researchers working in America than American AI researchers.

So, if you go to America you can’t say “mass murder is bad”, and no one can protect you from the government’s thugs if you do, but, fortunately for some, soon you won’t be able to study in the US, so hey, it’ll be a moot point if you’re lucky enough to be Chinese.

American universities are only massively dependent on foreign students and Americans, scared of catastrophic, life long student loan debt increasingly don’t want to to go to university, so I’m sure this won’t hurt America at all. Who needs scientists, engineers, professors, intellectuals, and all them fancy folks who think they’re better than MAGA chuds? I hear some of them academic types say evil worlds like sexism and racism and nasty phrases like settler colonialism, CIS, justice, fairness, genocide and so on.

Yup. Ban ’em or make ’em terrified. Don’t give academics any freedom, they think bad thoughts about how killing brown people might be wrong or that women might be worth something when they aren’t cooking or spreading their legs. They might say “abortion isn’t always evil” or suggest that God isn’t real or something.

Anyway, I’m pleased to notice that America is 110% (as an American manager or coach would say) dedicated to driving itself into the dirt and ensuring China buries it there.

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Trump Is the Best President of My Life Unless You’re American

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On March 12, 2025

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The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

Every day, I become more grateful for the election of Donald Trump. All praise. Millions and millions of people have worked to destroy the American empire, and all of them failed. Donald is succeeding, speeding the process by about a decade, I’d guess.

Likewise, I and many others have hated the neoliberal trade order for decades — since the late 80s, in my case. It was designed to destroy countries’ sovereignty, making it impossible to truly regulate investors, to run industrial policy, or even, in rich nations, to keep wages up. As a Canadian, ever since the FTA Canadian manufacturing has proceeded on a slow death march, till instead of selling the US more good than the US sells us, as was historically been the norm, we buy more goods from the US than vice-versa. (The trade surplus is due to energy.)

Meanwhile, Trump is essentially forcing the Europeans to take charge of their own destiny and stop doing what America says. This should have happened decades ago, and EU elites failure to man-up has cost Europe’s countries dearly. It’s quite likely neither NATO nor the EU itself will survive; both excellent outcomes. NATO should have been disbanded when the USSR fell. American troops may leave Europe, or at least there should be a further draw-down — also excellent. As for the EU, it has been an engine of stagnation and de-industrialization, especially since the introduction of the Euro.

The end of the American Empire, and the end of the “no industrial policy, no sovereignty” free trade order, and possibly the end of NATO and the American occupation of Europe.

Oh, the process will suck, and it will hurt. But for the first time since the US imposed its terrible neoliberal trade order on the world, there is at least a chance for most countries to be able to properly manage their own economic affairs.

Unfortunately for Americans, Trump is doing this in the stupidest and most harmful way possible — for America. It needs to be done, sure, but simultaneously pissing off almost every trade partner in the world and speeding up the end of the dollar’s hegemony in such a chaotic way is not going to go well for America or Americans. As the primary beneficiaries of the previous order (other than the Chinese, who suckered the Americans using their greed), the end of the order is going to be ugly, and because America now has no friends except maybe the lickspittle Brits, there’s going to be little cushion for the America’s fall to real economic status.

So, all hail Trump. He’s an idiot, a monster and is doing plenty of terrible things. But he’s ending the American century sooner and more decisively than anyone could really have expected. There’s still the risk of war, to be sure. But if we can avoid that, well, Trump will go down as a very important President and his reign will have made a better world possible.

Sometimes what the world needs is a colossal fuckup in charge to bring the end of an order.

 

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