Author: Ian Welsh Page 3 of 394

On December 9, 2024

Israel’s air force is destroying every air defense system, missile stockpile and air asset they know about, while the Jihadis whine that they aren’t Israel’s enemy.

By doing so Israel makes sure that it doesn’t matter who’s in charge of Syria: they can hit anything they want at any time and not only can’t Syria defend itself, they can’t even strike back. (Hezbollah can’t defend against air strikes, it can strike back so has some deterrence, but not enough.)

Turkey should just cut bait and directly conquer and annex Syria. Operating thru proxy forces has too many disadvantages and the days when borders were nearly sacrosanct are over. The US won’t like it, but so what? They can’t cut Turkey loose, it’s too important, and they’ve already pissed Russia and Iran off.

Two Lessons From the Syrian Collapse

On December 8, 2024

The first is that frozen conflicts are poison. When Russia and Hezbollah and Iran and some Syrian units were winning, rather than make an agreement for a frozen conflict, they should have pushed on. Leaving enemies in the country and the oil fields in US/Kurdish hands was foolish and fatal. Letting enemies flee to Turkey then be sent back was fatal.

The second is that either Russia or Iran should have just stationed some significant ground forces there permanently (Hezbollah is not a full state and doesn’t have the capacity.) Yes, it would be a bleeding ulcer, but the attrition would not be enough to matter. The entire advance could have been stopped by one good, properly equipped Iranian or Russian brigade with air and drone support. The Jihadis didn’t win because they were great fighters, they won because the Syrian army wouldn’t fight.

This assumes that the strategic value of Syria was sufficient: that it was worth the cost.

If Syria’s worth having, then do what it takes. Fighting on and off for thirteen years to then have the regime fall in days is ridiculous.

This argument applies to America in Afghanistan. The difference is that while Russia and Iran have important strategic interests in Syria, or did, the US never had enough in Afghanistan to justify the costs.

Broadly speaking, don’t half-ass. Do it right or don’t do it.

This applies also to Turkey. They should probably cut the bullshit and just occupy the country. Their proxies can’t stand up to Israel and will even have difficulty against the Kurds.

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

Looks Like Assad Is Done

On December 8, 2024

Seems the Syrian army just wouldn’t fight and its allies couldn’t prop it up this time, which given the speed of the advance makes sense. This is one of the most pathetic shows of bad army moral and corruption I’ve seen in my entire life. There weren’t enough troops willing and able to fight to even make a stand at the capital.

I don’t see how Hezbollah or Iran or even Russia could have saved Assad from an army this bad. The Syrians had to be able to at least slow the enemy down. Hezbollah and Russia no longer had significant numbers of ground forces in the country and couldn’t get enough there soon enough.

This is terrible for Lebanon, Palestine, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Russia likely loses its Med port and airfield (if they don’t, that will be very interesting); Hezbollah lose its land route for supplies and Iran its easy ability to reach its allies. Let this be a lesson about what happens when you allow frozen conflicts. Syria was cut off from its oil fields, that was allowed to stand, and without any real fiscal capacity the Syrian military became even weaker and more corrupt.

I hope the new conquerors of Syria are more tolerant than I expect them to be.

Israel will seize another chunk of Syria. Tanks are already attacking into Syria from the Golan Heights.

Huge victory for Turkey here. I’d like to think Turkish proxy forces would help Palestine, but Erdogan has been all talk, no action so far when it comes to Gaza. This would allow him to cut off oil supplies to Israel if he wants to though.

The Kurds are going to get it in the throat, which is what happens when you ally with Israel and the US.

No tears for Assad, mind you.

Syrian Allies Try To Hold At Homs

On December 6, 2024

So, according to Magnier, who usually knows what he’s talking about when it comes to the Middle East:

Syrian government forces are expected to: 1. Leave Al Bu Kamal, Deir-ezzour, Palmira and stop at al-Qaryateyn to protect Homs. 2. Leave Daraa and retract to the limits of Damascus rural area. That will limit the defence of a larger area to a smaller area, secure Latakia, Tartous, Damascus and Homs.

Meanwhile Israel is considering annexing southern Syria.

Apparently some Iraqi militias Hezbollah forces are at Homs to fight, but HTS is still strong and is very well equipped, including with plenty of drones.

Edrogan has announced that HTS forces intend to occupy Damascus and Homs, which is a clear statement that they are his proxy forces.

Most of the Syrian army has proven unwilling to fight. The troops are ill paid, the winning army was mostly disbanded, and the army troops subsisted by setting up checkpoints and extorting people who had to pass through them. The critical oil fields are under US control, so Syria’s government is poor. Hezbollah can’t send the amount of troops they sent in the past, for obvious reasons, and Russia is occupied in Ukraine and doesn’t have nearly as many “mercenary” troops to send as it used to.

(This map makes things look better than they are. The majority of the population is no longer under Syrian government control, nor is the oil.)

If Syria falls, Hezbollah is cut off from its Iranian supply chain, and Russia wants to keep its naval and air bases. As for Iraq, they have to figure that they’re next: once HTS has secured a bigger base in Syria, or taken most of it, they will turn on Iraq, as similar forces did in the past.

The situation is developing quickly, and a lot will depend on whether and/or where Syria and its allies can halt the HTS advance.

Assad has proved himself unable to do what needs to be done. His #1 need was to have a functional Syrian army and he failed at that. There may be good reasons for that, like lack of money and sectarian and tribal issues, but the bottom line is that the Syrian army’s willingness and ability to fight has so far been terrible.

If his allies do manage to save him, they should turn him into a figurehead and just the run the place themselves, it’s clear that he isn’t up to the job.

At the current time it seems the most likely outcome is Syria being partitioned between Israel and Turkey, perhaps with a rump Syrian state. But until we see if and where Syria and its allies manage to hold the line, it’s hard to say. All that being true, it’s also true that Syria in 2015 had been reduced far further than it is so far, so the situation is not, at least in principle, beyond rescue yet.

But Syria’s allies need to face the fact that the Syrian army is garbage and take over the war. If they don’t, the odds of success seem… bad.

US/China Trade War Heats Up

On December 5, 2024

So, China has put export controls on rare earths.

People think “well, we’ll just mine them ourselves” but it often isn’t that simple. Gallium is refined as part of the process of aluminum smelting, for example, and the US has no aluminum smelting industry left.

More generally speaking the world is unfolding as I predicted: it’s splitting into two trade blocs, a cold war is developing (the Syrian “uprising” is a cold war maneuver) and the US is trying cannibalize its satrapies: that’s what Trump’s tariffs on allies are about.

Since the 50s it was deliberate American policy to offshore industry to its allies, especially South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, but also to Europe and the Anglosphere to some extent. Now it wants to pull that back in. This has been especially noticeable, of late, in Germany, where heavy industry is shutting down and much of it is moving to the US.

The problem, of course, is that China’s cost structure is lower and they are pulling ahead technologically. The Chinese believe in technology in a way the West hasn’t since the 60s—it’s good to them. They want more robots, more drones and more automation. They’re not scared of automation taking jobs, they associate rapid technological advancement with prosperity.

The problem with bringing industry back to the US isn’t just cost-structure, it’s the so-called competency crisis and the sparseness of the vast numbers of small industrial suppliers. The ecosystem which supports and allows rapid re-industrialization doesn’t exist in the West any more. A simple example is that almost all of the world’s machine tools and basic electronics which are needed to do everything else are produced in China (with a small machine tool industry barely surviving in Germany.)

The West is going to have increasing problems with resources, as well. Most of the “South” would rather do business with China, for reasons we’ve discussed ad-infinitum. As the US cannibalizes its allies it will also have difficulty with trade: if Europe’s poor and everyone else would rather buy Chinese, who are you going to sell to?

Trump’s tariff plans aren’t exactly stupid, but they require real industrial policy at the same time and managing relationships with trade partners, including partners the US insists on treating as enemies, and Trump isn’t up for that, any more than Biden was.

So America will decline, but will decline less fast than its allies, and the world will split into two competing blocs. Only this time the “Western” bloc will be the weaker, less technologically advanced one.

Yes, Denial Of Care Improves Profits For Health Insurers

On December 5, 2024

Insurance companies generally have a loss ratio: a percentage of income from insurance policies they must pay out. In health insurance this percentage varies: it’s lower for individual plans, and higher for group plans. Most commonly it’s 80%.

If they pay out less, in many cases they have to return the difference to policy owners. (Not always though. Often with Medicaid, for example, this isn’t the case.)

This doesn’t mean that they have no reason to deny care, however. They want their health care costs as close to that bottom number as possible without going past it. If they spend, say, 83% rather than 80%, that will cost them billions. Denial of care is meant to get the margin as close to to loss ratio as possible.

This also means that the best way to increase gross profits (not the percentage, but gross) is to sell as much insurance as possible. Eighty percent of a 2X is more than 80% of X.

So the incentives align such that the best way to make money is to sell as much as possible, then deny the necessary amount of care to get as close to the loss ratio as possible.

It should not need to be pointed out that Americans, as a group, are a very sick people: lots of obesity and chronic illness and in this age of Covid, long Covid and the rise of illness caused by post-Covid, more and more denial of care will be required to hit numbers.

Insurance company profit ratios hardly move in percentage terms. But making more money is still better, and the more money they make in gross terms the larger executive salaries, bonuses and stock options can be.

Health Insurance CEO Assassinated

On December 4, 2024

Brian Thompson, CEO of United Healthcare. Apparently there had been threats, and those threats were related to denial of care. Even the Feds thought he was denying too much care (which takes some work, since denying care is the industry profit model.)

He had been chief executive since 2021, during a time in which the parent company and his division were rattled by federal investigations, even as it enjoyed profitable growth. The division has been criticized by congressional lawmakers and federal regulators who accused it of systematically denying authorization for health care procedures and treatments.

There doesn’t seem to be much sympathy, and indeed there is much satisfaction and even glee, among commenters.

I have been expecting, but not seeing, a wave of assassinations of important people in the US and the West for some time. I still think it will happen, it’s just taking longer than I thought.

The bottom line is that people like Thompson get rich by hurting other people. That’s what they do. Billionaires, executives and politicians all make their living plus a lot by taking from people weaker than them. Grocery chains raising prices faster than their costs’ insurance companies denying care to spike profits; banks creating fake documents to foreclose homes; private equity buying profitable businesses, larding them up with debt and then shutting them down.

Politicians making laws to benefit the rich, cutting their taxes, giving them huge subsidies and cutting programs for the poor and middle class. Politicians letting people be homeless and stealing their possessions when they raid homeless camps.

And so on. Entire books have been written about this and been non-exhaustive.

Powerful people get rich by killing, impoverishing and hurting people weaker than them and it’s very odd that more of those people, or their families or friends don’t return the favor with prejudice.

Thompson’s assassination will cause more execs and CEOs to bodyguard up, but that doesn’t matter much. Modern IEDs and drones are very very effective and getting cheaper all the time, though civilian drones are extremely restricted in the US, which has lead to China being the world leader.

I suspect they’re restricted in part to make assassinations harder. Guns are nice, drones are better.

Chinese leaders make the lives of most Chinese much better, not worse, so they aren’t scared of assassination.

Anyway, if you want an economy which works for everyone you can’t ask nicely, powerful Westerners only respond to fear. So if there are more assassinations, if it becomes a “thing”, well that might turn out very well for the majority. (Or it might not, but when the status quo is unbearable, people often lash out.)

This is just an observation of how things work, of course. One should never ever assassinate someone just because they are killing and impoverishing lots of people and would happily kill and or impoverish your friends and family or you because they need a fifth luxury home, third private jet and a second mega-yacht.

That would be very anti-capitalistic and un-American and letting the rich kill and impoverish you is what America is all about. You should be honored to die or live on the street or scream in agony as your health care is denied so some executive can increase profits by .01% and get a bigger bonus.

Die for the American way. Live homeless for freedom!

Update: