The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Ian Welsh Page 6 of 400

The Pacific Pallisades Fire

An area larger Manhattan has burned down. In the middle of fucking winter.

I’ve been watching the reaction, and there’s a lot of screeching about DEI and bad fire management and so on and it’s true that California’s fire management isn’t good.

Whatever.

California’s had shit water management forever, and decades of shitty fire management. What’s changing is the climate.

California was paradise because it had a mediterranean climate. That climate is shifting north. California is moving towards a new climate. Like most such changes it’s a fits and starts thing: some years its the old normal, others it’s the new normal. The old vegetation, suited for the old climate, will go, often in fire, sometimes replaced more gently.

So, when building and rebuilding all homes need to be fire proof. The right type of concrete, thick brick, old fashioned masonry, ICF bricks, steel. A fireproof roof. Fireproof windows which don’t shatter under heat. A metal door. No foliage too near the house. You may have to evacuate, but when you come home, the house will still be there. Build to protect your pipes and electrical infrastructure, as well.

This the general rule, folks. The climate is changing. You need to adapt to the new climate wherever you live. If you’re a Californian and you want the old climate, move north, because that’s where the Meditteranan climate is moving.

In addition, expect instability. More extreme weather: California had floods not long ago—your home needs to be fireproof and floodproof. You prepare for fire, flood, wind and power and water outages. If you have money, get your own power and water supplies. (There are now machines which can make water from the air, even in pretty dry places.) If you’re doing the whole food thing, it needs to be done in a climate controlled space, not outdoors, because of the instability.

We aren’t stopping climate change. All indications are that it is accelerating, and we aren’t doing shit all about it. I suspect we are now at the self-reinforcing stage anyway. To stop it we’d actually have to not just stop fueling it but work on reversal, or it will continue.

Politically that isn’t going to happen any time soon enough to matter.

The world is changing. Prepare.

(Haven’t forgotten the Europe piece.)

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Canada 101 For Would Be American Annexers

So, reading various Americans who think annexing Canada would be a good idea, it’s clear most of them know nothing about Canada. Let’s educate them. The basic principles here are “Canadians are not Americans and Canada is not just America with fewer people.”

Canada Has Universal Healthcare

If you’re American you don’t know what this really means. Let me start with myself: if I had been born in America, I’d be dead the past thirty-one years. I needed millions of dollars of healthcare in my 20s at a time when I would have had no insurance if American. Since then I’ve needed serious care twice, in both cases when I’d have no insurance as an American.

I am not alone. There are a lot of Canadians who know they’d be dead, or unable to get healthcare if they were American. So, irrespective of any resistance, American annexing Canada means a lot of people will die.

I imagine some of them will decide that if they’re going to die anyway, strapping on a vest and saying an explosive hello to unwelcome American guests would be a good way to go.

Income Numbers are Deceptive

If you’re American you probably make more money than the equivalent Canadian. Great. Now subtract all hospital and doctor costs from that. I’ve never seen a hospital bill. I walked out after 3 months and no one asked me for one red cent. Your drugs cost way more than ours do, so subtract half the cost of any drugs your taking from your income. Americans have to pay for a lot of things that people in other countries get from government or for lower cost because government allows less gouging.

Canada’s History Is Based On the Idea “We Don’t Want to Be American”

America had its revolution. The people who lost and were most bitter about it? They were called the “United Empire Loyalists” and they fled to what was then called “Upper Canada”. When our founding fathers drew up our constitution, they looked at the US Constitution and said “they made some big mistakes.” They created a very different constitution. As one example, though it’s almost never used, the Federal government has the ability to override ANY decision made by the States. (Our founders were around during your civil war. They took a lesson.)

We raced West so that America wouldn’t claim all of North America. We stretched as far as we could to establish our borders opposition to, and in a race with America.

Canada’s founding principle is “We Are Not Americans.”

Canadian Identity

Not American. That’s what we all agree on. Americans see Canadians as more polite and wimpier Americans, and think everyone wants to be American, because gosh, America is the best. Canada always compares itself to American and asks “are we doing better?” I think that’s often a bad thing, the American bar is on the ground, trying to be better than America is often choosing a very low standard. Still, that’s how it is.

Canadians don’t bluster, but we have more wilderness and rural area than America. Canadians have a lot of guns, and rural and wilderness Canadians are tough and used to roughing it. There are places in Canada where there’s no one, no one, around for fifty miles. You take care of your own problems, or you die. The idea that Canadians are wimps is based on America being a superpower and Canadians being polite. It has little basis in reality outside the major cities, and Canadians in cities aren’t any more effete than Americans in cities (and while fat, less fat than Americans.)

Canada is BIG

Canada has more land than any country but Russia. Most of that land is sparsely inhabited. But, and this is important, so pay attention at the back of the class, almost everything America would want from Canada is out in the boons: oil, minerals, timber, etc…

People say Afghanistan was made for guerilla warfare but those people never thought what it’d be like to fight an insurgency in Canada. Thousands and thousands of miles of roads, railways and pipelines. Widely spread mines and farms and oil wells. Absolutely impossible to defend against some guy with an IED.

Canadians Don’t Want to Be Americans

There won’t be a voluntary annexation. A poll found 82% of Canadians opposed to joining the US and 13% for. If there’s a violent one America will conquer the cities in a couple weeks, then spend thirty years fighting a guerilla war which makes Afghanistan look like the picnic it was because, again, it’s a big country, often very rough and everything worth having is out in the country.

Canadians often like Americans, but most of us don’t want to be Americans and those who do simply emigrate to the US. And, in truth, just as many Americans look down on Canadians, Canadians think Americans are barbarians. Understand that when Canadians were polled on who the greatest Canadian is, the number one choice was Tommy Douglas, the father of Canadian Universal Healthcare.

We aren’t nearly as nice as we like to think we are, and we have plenty of flaws. But one thing the majority of us agree on, “Thank God We’re Not Americans.”

This is perfectly natural. For our entire history and even before Confederation the number one fact of Canadian political life has been the four hundred pound gorilla on the southern border. We’ve always been aware that many Americans wanted to take over Canada or take a big chunk of it. Fifty-four fourty was the slogan. The Canadian border is at the 49th parallel, but many Americans wanted it up at 54.4. Canada is the “not America” nation.

So, once again, for the slow folks:

Canada is not America. Canadians are not embarrassed Americans. Most Canadians don’t want to be Americans and like folks pretty much everywhere, figure that our country, whatever its flaws, is better than our neighbour’s country and that being us is better than being someone else.

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Smart CEOs Suck Up To Trump

So, a very partial list of donors to Trump’s second inauguration includes:

  • Apple’s Tim Cook.
  • Ken Griffon of Citadel.
  • Amazon’s Jeff Bezos.
  • Sam Altman of OpenAI.
  • Zuckerberg of Meta/Facebook.
  • Dara Koroshawi of Uber.
  • General Motors, Ford and Toyota.

Trump imposed a lot of sanctions on China in his first term but somehow Apple avoided most of them. Not coincidentally Tim Cook supposedly talked to Trump every week. I’m sure he spent that time being Trump’s good friend and toady.

I don’t blame him for it, it was his job. Apple sold a ton of phones in China and made most of their gear in China. Trump could have (and can) tear the heart of out of Apple.

The FTC is planning to take Meta to court over anti-trust violations this year. Want to bet they change their minds?

Amazon is nothing but a giant sucking anti-trust violation.

Olds will remember that Microsoft was almost broken up by an anti-trust suit. The government was clearly winning its case in 2000, but when Bush Jr. took power, the government suddenly decided to drop the case. Saved Gates billions and billions.

Trump’s tariff plans are going to hit a lot of companies hard, but some will likely get waivers, as Apple did. Wouldn’t you pay a million dollars, or ten million, to predispose Trump to make sure you get a waiver that will save you billions?

Sure you would.

Wearing kneepads for the President and other important political figures is part of the CEO’s job. And Trump, more than most Presidents requires sycophants and courtiers around him. You make him feel good, he takes care of you.

You tell him he’s wearing the Emperor’s “New Clothes” and that doesn’t end well for you. You steal the limelight from him too often (like Bannon did and Musk seems to be) and that may end badly for you.

Musk, by the way, is in particular trouble. Though most people haven’t caught on yet, Tesla, which is the vast majority of his wealth in terms of over-inflated stock, is in huge trouble. Chinese EV firms produce better cars for half the price. Even domestic firms like GM are now producing cars which are, arguably, better and given how slow Tesla’s model cycle is, it won’t be arguable for much longer. Musk needs government protection and aid, like the 100% tariffs Biden put on Chinese cars. He should be very careful not to irritate Trump and be eager to get down, not just on his knees, but on his belly,. All it would take is Trump providing a waiver for BYD and Musk would be lucky to be worth a hundred billion let alone be the richest man in the world.

Of course if you run a small or medium business, you aren’t going to have a personal relationship with Trump and are a lot less likely to get a business-saving waiver or a rule made especially to help your company. That’s America under imperial Presidency rule.

In the meantime, the kneepads are on, the CEOs are kneeling and Trump’s enjoying himself. Welcome to the second Trump Presidency.

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Canadian PM Trudeau’s Resignation is Perfectly Normal

He ruled for about the normal time for Canadian Prime Ministers. This, from Taibbi, is well-written nonsense:

Canadian Prime Minister and feminist heartthrob Justin Trudeau resigned this morning. His departure completes an unprecedented popularity cliff dive, dropping from 65% to an incredible 16% approval rating over the course of a nine-year reign that men will chuckle over, from now through the end of time. Centuries from now, fathers will sit sons on their knees and tell The Fall of Trudeau as a cautionary tale.

Trudeau had about nine years:

  • Harper had 9 years;
  • Martin had 3;
  • Chretien had 10;
  • Campbell had less than one, but was an unelected caretaker PM; and,
  • Mulroney had 9.

American red-pill nonsense is just that. Trudeau was was a gifted politician who was bad at policy. He resigned because his own caucus wanted him gone, as they think they’re more likely to keep their seats without him.

The Liberals won’t win the next election, the standard pattern in Canadian politics is for the Liberals and Conservatives to alternate. Barring some huge surprise, the Conservatives will rule next. But how much of a majority they have will depend a lot on who the next Liberal leader is.

This is a nothing-burger. Yes, Trudeau could have been a better Prime Minister. He mishandled Covid in the same way as almost every other western leader; let in way too many immigrants, and inflation, especially in rent and food hurt him just like it did every other neo-liberal government of the era.

I despise Trudeau. He’s an empty neoliberal suit coasting on being le dauphin. (Son of Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada’s greatest Prime Ministers.) But he was a gifted politician, and his fall is bog standard for Canadian post-war Prime Ministers. It is entirely normal and has nothing to do with red-pills, cucks, soy, pick-up artists, feminism or any other culture nonsense. All of that is just noise, he may have been attacked on the cultural politics of the day, but he lost because people became worse off under his rule and because his time was, essentially, up. Even a very good Prime Minister finds it hard to hold on for more than two terms in Canadian politics.

He’s not an extraordinary cautionary tale and no one except historians will remember him in fifty years, let alone centuries from now.

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Tracking the Signs of Decline in America

If you want to be a decent analyst, let alone a forecaster, you need to know how to find real information. A lot of official statistics are either useless (inflation, unemployment numbers) or misleading.

Russia, with assists from Iran and North Korea and China (in non military goods, though often useful for making military goods) is out producing NATO in war material. If you just look at the GDP of NATO vs. Russia/China/Iran/NK you’d predict that couldn’t happen and you’d be wrong and like a lot of people you’d think Ukraine might or would win the war.

Most people go on and on about how the US still has a bigger economy than China, but China has way more industry and leads in about 80% of technological fields even as the US can barely build ships, is losing its steel industry and is only creative in biotech and infotech. These same people will tell you how well the US economy is doing. China’s shifting its house building to primarily government. Meanwhile:

Eighteen percent last year.

Since 2020 billionaire wealth has doubled.

GDP tells you how much activity in your country is conducted thru money, as opposed to unpaid labor. That tells you much economic activity you can easily tax. That’s all it tells you.

It doesn’t tell you how well off your people are. It doesn’t tell you how healthy they are. It doesn’t tell you (directly) how many tanks you can build, or planes or missiles. It doesn’t tell you if you can feed your population if foreign shipments are disrupted. It doesn’t tell you how many of them have homes and how many of those homes are good. it doesn’t tell you how many people do or don’t have healthcare. It doesn’t tell you how advanced you are technologically. It doesn’t tell you if your flagship airplane company can’t design and build good planes any more.

It also doesn’t tell you that America is doing better than Europe and its other allies because US economic policy is set up to cannibalize their industry. When Germany loses energy-intensive firms, a lot of them move production to the US. Burning down America’s allies to slow America’s decline isn’t a sign of strength.

America’s in decline because its entire political-economy is set up not to be productive or to spread wealth around, but to funnel money to the rich without them having to produce much of anything. China’s stock-market trades sideways, like America’s did in the 50s and 60s. Americans make money on housing and stocks without having to do a thing. Private Equity makes money by buying companies with debt, loading the companies up with that debt and then driving them into bankruptcy, destroying real productive economic activity in exchange for dollars in a declining country.

Real power comes from real production, technology, a healthy and loyal population, and the ability to turn all of that into military power when necessary. America’s military, for years now, has been unable to meet recruiting goals. Its enemies are ahead on missiles and drone, catching up on airplanes and outproducing it massively in ships.

China’s rising. Russia’s rising. America and its allies are in serious decline.

THE END

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Happy New Years

I hope you had a good year and that next year is good for you. It’ll be a bad year for the world, but that doesn’t mean it has to be for individuals.

I’ll probably hold off on the promised “what can Europe do” post till next week.

Feel free to use as an open thread.

Well That Was Hell: 2024 In Review

The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

Not the best of all years. Annus Horriblus.

Gaza: Genocide continues and seems likely to be successful. I’d guess the actual casualties are somewhere north of 700K at this point, they sure aren’t anywhere close to the official numbers.  Never again meant nothing.

Hezbollah: Held the Israelis off on the ground, but were devastated by Mossad assassinations and terrorism (the cell phone attack) plus a bombing campaign against civilians they were unwilling to endure. Some signs the war may start up again after the 60 day ceasefire, but without air defense, I don’t think they have it in them to tough it out. Could be wrong.

Syria: I don’t know anyone who expected the Syrian army to collapse the way it did. Israel’s occupied an area about 4X that of Gaza and destroyed most of the Syrian army’s stockpiles, plane and air defenses. Syria’s pretty much defenseless. Some signs of a guerilla war starting against the new “government”. Meanwhile Turkey and its proxies are hammering the Kurds.

Iran: the leadership has proved extremely cautious, though the youngs in the Revolutionary Guard are not and when Khamenei dies, there may be a change in policy. Proved that Israel can’t stop their missile attacks, but unwilling to use them except under extreme provocation and pressure from the youngs. Lost their Syrian ally and Hezbollah has taken hard hits, while the population has lost faith in the system. Not a good year for them.

Russia: continues to grind forward in Ukraine. Economy is doing very well, thanks and they’re now arguably the 4th largest economy in the world, having overtaken Germany. Solid alliance with China. Pretty good year, actually.

Ukraine War: Russia’s winning and all signs are that the Ukrainian army is running out of manpower. Assuming Putin doesn’t accept a peace deal (he shouldn’t, unless Trump offers a better deal than Trump’s likely to offer) I expect the Ukrainian army to collapse in 2025 and the war to go big arrow. Most likely the war will end in a humiliating surrender, perhaps even an unconditional one.

Europe: Industrial collapse, especially in Germany. Germany and France are now ungovernable by either the center-right or left. France is being kicked out of Africa. China is buying fewer and fewer German cars and European goods. America is cannibalizing European industry thanks to lower energy costs. Without a massive turnaround in policy Europe is headed for a massive decline. Wouldn’t expect EU collapse in 2025, but 2026 is possible.

America: Continues its slow decline. Cannibalizing its allies industry to try to sustain itself. Largely unable to create new tech outside of the information sector. Costs are insane, the rabble are getting uppity and Trump is likely to pursue policies better for oligarchs than ordinary people. Loss in Ukraine will be a huge hit to American prestige and power.

Massive eighteen percent increase in homelessness, even as billionaires have doubled their wealth since 2020.

Yemen: The only truly moral nation in the world, as the only one going all out to try and stop a genocide. I don’t like their ideology much, but when they’re the only people standing up, so what?

Anglosphere (Canada, Britain, Australia): experimented with massive immigration and its skyrocked housing and rent and caused massive political instability. Labour and the Canadian Liberals will lose their next elections, but the people who will replace them are Trump-style tards and decline will continue even as looting of the public sector intensifies.

China: Slowing growth but still doing fine, thanks. Massive investment in industry, has taken the lead in about 80% of tech fields, including electric vehicles and drones. Pumping out naval vessels like there’s no tomorrow and has over a 1,000 ICBMs now. Moving up the semiconductor chain far faster than almost anyone (except me) predicted. Eating America and Europe’s lunch in the developing world, since they offer cheaper goods, development and loans without the hypocritcal lectures about human rights.

Generally speaking the decline of the American empire, the rise of a new cold war, the end of neoliberal globalization and the age of revolution and war are all on track as I predicted years ago. Climate change is accelerating, we’re ignoring it and morons are worried about population decline while humanity is in vast population overshoot. This isn’t the worst year of your life, it’s the best year of the rest of your life in geopolitical, economic and ecological terms.

Annus Horribulus will return next year.

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The MAGA Civil War Over H1-B Visas

Is like watching a cage match between the two worst people in the world.

In this corner, the screw the peons billionaires.

In the other corner, the racist anti-immigrant nativists!

Personally I’m cheering for the racist anti-immigrants.

Vivek Ramaswany delightfully opinined that the problem is that American culture doesn’t produce people willing to work hard enough and celebrates prom queens and jocks over math olympiads. (American engineers aren’t keen on 12 hour work days.)

Funny thing, I’m in my 50s so I remember when prom queens and jocks really were worshipped and nerds were beaten up: and back then the US still led the world in engineering. And the 50s, the pinnacle of American power, were not noted for love of nerds. There’s some truth to what Vivek says, but culture isn’t why America has fallen behind. Instead America deliberately offshored its industry to China and China has maintained a cost advantage.

H1-B visas obviously take jobs from Americans. Yes, companies must say they doesn’t, but they do. H1B workers can’t leave their employers unless they have another lined up immediately, so they do what they’re told or go home. As such, they obviously have reduced bargaining power compared to natives or landed immigrants. This drives down wages for natives, “if you won’t do it, we’ll get an immigrant to, and they’ll take the wage we’re offering.”

The left-wing argument against guest workers, and H1B visas are just tech guest workers, is that if we genuinely need workers, then they should be over here either as landed immigrants or on a visa which allows them to quit and have some reasonable time to find another employer. A class of workers with reduced rights will obviously be preferred by management and will reduce the bargaining power of native workers.

Indians, who get most of these tech visas, aren’t culturally superior workers. They’re desperate workers, and desperate workers are good workers, for bosses.

Trump, of course, came down on Musk’s side. Billionaire solidarity is real and Trump has used H1B visa workers often in his own business.

Trump’s in his second term. MAGA got him elected, but the only reason he might care what they want any more is concern for mid-terms. Other than that, they don’t matter.

If they do want to win, the way is to emphasize that Musk and Vivek are in charge, they’re the real Presidents, and that he’s just their “cuck”, to use the modern term.

Trump doesn’t care about anybody but himself, but he has plenty of ego. Use it.

In the meantime, I’m going to enjoy the cage match.

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