The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Ian Welsh Page 6 of 410

Fixing Education In The Age of “AI” Is Simple, But Hard

As has been noted, AI is being used to cheat. A lot:

Lee said he doesn’t know a single student at the school who isn’t using AI to cheat. To be clear, Lee doesn’t think this is a bad thing. “I think we are years — or months, probably — away from a world where nobody thinks using AI for homework is considered cheating,” he said.

Clio, the Muse of History

Clio, the Muse of History

He’s stupid. But that’s OK, because he’s young. What studies are showing is that people who use AI too much get stupider.

The study surveyed 666 participants across various demographics to assess the impact of AI tools on critical thinking skills. Key findings included:

  • Cognitive Offloading: Frequent AI users were more likely to offload mental tasks, relying on the technology for problem-solving and decision-making rather than engaging in independent critical thinking.
  • Skill Erosion: Over time, participants who relied heavily on AI tools demonstrated reduced ability to critically evaluate information or develop nuanced conclusions.
  • Generational Gaps: Younger participants exhibited greater dependence on AI tools compared to older groups, raising concerns about the long-term implications for professional expertise and judgment.

The researchers warned that while AI can streamline workflows and enhance productivity, excessive dependence risks creating “knowledge gaps” where users lose the capacity to verify or challenge the outputs generated by these tools.

Meanwhile, AI is hallucinating more and more:

Reasoning models, considered the “newest and most powerful technologies” from the likes of OpenAI, Google and the Chinese start-up DeepSeek, are “generating more errors, not fewer.” The models’ math skills have “notably improved,” but their “handle on facts has gotten shakier.” It is “not entirely clear why.”

If you can’t do the work without AI, you can’t check the AI. You don’t know when it’s hallucinating, and you don’t know when what it’s doing isn’t the best or most appropriate way to do the work. And if you’re totally reliant on AI, well, what do you bring to the table?

Students using AI to cheat are, well, cheating themselves:

It isn’t as if cheating is new. But now, as one student put it, “the ceiling has been blown off.” Who could resist a tool that makes every assignment easier with seemingly no consequences? After spending the better part of the past two years grading AI-generated papers, Troy Jollimore, a poet, philosopher, and Cal State Chico ethics professor, has concerns. “Massive numbers of students are going to emerge from university with degrees, and into the workforce, who are essentially illiterate,” he said. “Both in the literal sense and in the sense of being historically illiterate and having no knowledge of their own culture, much less anyone else’s.” That future may arrive sooner than expected when you consider what a short window college really is. Already, roughly half of all undergrads have never experienced college without easy access to generative AI. “We’re talking about an entire generation of learning perhaps significantly undermined here,” said Green, the Santa Clara tech ethicist. “It’s short-circuiting the learning process, and it’s happening fast.”

This isn’t complicated to fix. Instead of having essays and unsupervised out of class assignments, instructors are going to have to evaluate knowledge and skills by:

  • Oral tests. Ask them questions, one on one, and see if they can answer and how good their answers are.
  • In class, supervised exams and assignments. No AI aid, proctors there to make sure of it, and can you do it without help.

The idea that essays and take-home assignments are the way to evaluate students wasn’t handed down from on high, and hasn’t always been the way students’ knowledge was judged.

Now, of course, this is extra work for instructors and the students will whine, but who cares? Those who graduate from such programs (which will also teach how to use AI, not everything has to be done without it), will be more skilled and capable.

Students are always willing to cheat themselves by cheating and not actually learning the material. This is a new way of cheating, but there are old methods which will stop it cold, IF instructors will do the work, and if they can give up the idea, in particular, that essays and at-home assignments are a good way to evaluate work. (They never were, entirely, there was an entire industry for writing other people’s essays, which I assume AI has pretty much killed.)

AI is here, it requires changes to adapt. That’s all. And unless things change, it isn’t going to replace all workers or any such nonsense: the hallucination problem is serious, and researchers have no idea how to fix it and right now there is no US company which is making money on AI, every single query, even from paying clients, is costing more to run than it returns.

IF AI delivered reliable results and thus really could replace all workers. If it could fully automate knowledge work, well, companies might be willing to pay a lot more for it. But as it stands right now, I don’t see the maximalist position happening. And my sense is that this particular model of AI, a blend of statistical compression and reasoning cannot be made to be reliable, period. A new model is needed.

So, make the students actually do the work, and actually learn, whether they want to or not.

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Turns Out You Can’t Make A Deal With Trump (University and Law Firm Edition)


The NYTimes writes:

Columbia University, for example, agreed to concessions that included imposing new oversight over its Middle Eastern studies department and creating a security force empowered to make arrests. But that was not enough to restore the more than $400 million in grants that the Trump administration had canceled, or to prevent the administration from making even more demands.

Law firms like Paul Weiss, which thought they had escaped punishment by agreeing to do pro bono work for uncontroversial causes, discovered that Mr. Trump saw their agreements as a blank check for them to do his bidding.
As my colleagues have reported, the law firms discovered that they had agreed to deals that “did little to insulate them from his whims.” One expert at Yale Law School said the “administration seems to think that they have subjected these firms to indentured servitude.”

As I wrote April 11th:

Trump operates on two simple rules:

  • For me to win, someone else has to lose; and,
  • If someone capitulates to my demands, I can still get more.

If you give in to Trump, he will be back.

Trump’s been going after both Big Law and the Ivies, and so far most, though not all, have given in. Four major “white shoe” law firms have offered 340 million in pro bono work for Trump’s causes and promised not to oppose him.

All of them are idiots. Trump is a bully and a blackmailer. You can never “pay off” a blackmailer. They will always come back to the well for more.

And these are some of the most important, powerful and “smart” people in America. They’re morons. Much as I despise Harvard, they at least had the balls to stand and fight. It’s not out of any great principles or anything, they’re still pro-genocide scum, they just aren’t willing to give up their power.

Everyone’s getting this now. Finally. Domestically and externally. Even Japan is threatening Trump with selling Treasuries and standing with China in demanding an end to all tariffs before further negotiations.

On April 17th, I wrote:

I think the odds of significant elite opposition are high. They don’t want to, but Trump has backed them into a corner. It’s fight or exit the elites.

This is going to be a nasty fight. Trump’s weaponization of the immigration system and presidential orders, especially dubious presidential control over spending means he has powerful weapons, including the threat of deporting citizens to prison camps for life.

The fight is developing and the New York Times is the mouthpiece for elite opposition. Trump’s polls are shit, he’s failed to get a peace between Ukraine and Russia and the full tariff effects will start smashing Americans into the dirt in about a month.

Meanwhile Trump’s allies, like the tech bro faction, are not doing well. Tesla is doomed and most of the rest are betting vast sums on AI, which loses money with every single query, even from paying customers and where hallucination rates are increasing, not decreasing. Meanwhile China is working on new types of semiconductors and will soon be independent of Western semiconductor tech, just as ASML’s CEO warned.

Trump is a living embodiment of the “Peter Principle” that people rise to their level of incompetence. He’s going to be more unpopular than any President since Hoover and he’s taking US hegemony, and likely even prosperity, with him.

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

Yes, If You’re American There Will Be Serious Shortages Starting In About A Month

Effective tariffs are over 100% on most goods coming in from China. Everything from medicine to toys to machine and electrical parts will start running out soon. If your air conditioner or fridge breaks, the parts necessary to it may not be available. America doesn’t make these parts, and it’s endless. For example, magnets used in appliances.

So, yes, if stock up if you can.

No way of knowing how long this will go on for, and it’s worth noting that some factories in China have just shut down, period. You’d think they’d move production to other countries and some are trying, but since Trump has declared his retard trade war with entire world, and since he’s completely fickle (he just put a 100% tariff on films, claiming national security, which isn’t even allowed for films, but who knows) decision makers are reluctant to re-shore to other countries. Trump might have another one of his distempered starts and tariff them.

Anyway, even after the trade war ends, which I suspect it will, prices will be higher and supply for some products will be thin, but unless you’re an insider in a particular industry it’s hard to say which ones. Setting up production in the US takes time, sometimes years, and, again, because Trump is so fickle, hardly anyone is willing to invest. Ironically if Trump believably said “it’s going to be 100% on everyone forever”, that would in some ways be better than the current situation, since at least people could make decisions and invest.

Note also that even if the trade war ended tomorrow, the pipeline has been disrupted and there’s at least a two month gap to overcome.

So, rocky road ahead if you’re American. Stock up, strap in, and pray.

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

Environmental Collapse, Not Just Climate Change

When I talk about the environment I usually say “Climate change & Environmental Degradation.” It’s important to understand that while these two reinforce each other, they aren’t the same thing.

A UK-wide decline in bug splats recorded on car number plates indicates an “alarming” fall in the number of flying insects, UK scientists said in a survey published yesterday.

The 2024 Bugs Matter report revealed the numbers of flying insects found stuck to vehicle number plates had dropped by nearly 63 per cent since 2021.

This study from Germany in 2017 found a:

More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas

And there were decreases in the 1900s as well. Bug biodiversity and biomass is WAY down. Here’s a lovely chart from 2019.

We’re seeing this sort of crash, in both biodiversity and biomass for all sorts of species, not just bugs. Problem is that our food production and a pile of environmental processes related to water and atmosphere renewal are dependent on animals and plants. There’s massive loss of plankton, mammals, reptiles, bacteria in our soil and so on.

This stuff isn’t independent of climate change, but even without any climate change there’d still be plenty of it. The loss of wild areas, plus tons of pollution and the side effects of extraction and energy generation are largely to blame.

Collapse of this “web of life” or “food web” is a huge danger to us, as well as being a monstrous crime against other forms of life.

So don’t think “climate change is it”. It isn’t, and it may not even be as important as loss of biodiversity.

 

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Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

UR-Values Of The Right, Center and Left

The left looks at people who are hurting and immediately asks “how can we help them?”

The center looks at hurting people and says “can insiders profit from this?”

The right looks at people who are hurting and says “how can we hurt them more?”

There’s some overlaps between the right and center on this, but the right’s ur-Value is cruelty to the weak and outsiders. If they can make money hurting people, that’s great. The center just wants money. Lots of it. That’s their ur-value. If making money helps or hurts someone, OK.

The left’s ur-value is kindness. They see someone hurting, and they want to help.

The center has a modicum of shame. Being around people who are hurting, like homeless people, bothers their conscience a little bit, so they want them removed from their sight.

The right wants suffering people removed because they see them as losers who deserve what’s happening to them, and weak people deserve to suffer. Hell, make them suffer more till they get their act together.

This is the political spectrum in the West right now. There was a time when the center wanted to help people, from about FDR 76 or so, but those centrists no longer have any significant power. But the center pretends they want to help, and because they at least pretend, they feel entitled to support and votes from the left, even though most of their policies hurt people.

In some ways, the right, with their lack of pretense, is more admirable. They’re monsters and they don’t pretend otherwise, except when it comes to unborn children, whom they immediately abandon once born.

Given that the left has no significant power in most Western states, everything has gotten worse for everyone but the rich and the enforcer class for about three generations now. Until centrists either become humane again, probably out of self-interest, or the left takes power, the downward trend will continue.

 

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

 

Britain Is Toast, Period

Long term readers will know that I’ve been negative on Britain for a long time. Corbyn was their last chance to turn things around, but Corbyn lacked the necessary ruthlessness to win, and was destroyed by absolutely bullshit allegations of anti-semitism. Starmer became Labour leader after him, on promises of left wing policies which even a child should have disbelieved, and ruthlessly purged Labour of all left wingers.

Conservatives ran stupid governments with horrid policies which led to inflation and continued de-industrialization, and Starmer backed into power.  His policies are worse than the Conservatives, with draconian cuts to social welfare policies like child support, heat for old people, and wheelchairs for cripples. The last British steel plant is shutting down, and the next party to rule Britain (as I also predicted) seems likely to be Reform:

It showed that if a General Election were held tomorrow, 25% of UK voters would choose Reform, 24% chose Labour and 21% would vote for the Tories.

The party topped a Find Out Now Westminster poll last week, with Farage’s party on 26% of the vote – outstripping the Tories (on 23%) and pushing Labour into third place (on 22%).

While this is even or only a slight lead, Labour’s policies, which include selling a big chunk of the UK to Blackrock, will continue to be extremely damaging and unpopular, so I expect Reform to continue its rise.

Reform’s policies, should it come into government, will be absolutely disastrous, Trump/DOGE style shoot yourself in the foot, then realized there’s still plenty left to blow away.

Meanwhile Wales. Wales, which has been under English rule for over 700 years now pols in the 30s for support for independence. Scottish support is in the high 40s, sometimes spiking over 50, with support for going concentrated among the youngest Scots. Northern Ireland is around 40% for joining Ireland.

Again, as things become worse, I expect these numbers to increase. In twenty years, I don’t expect there to be a United Kingdom (the union of Scotland and England.)

There’s no easy recovery from what has happened to the UK as there’s no prospect of a government which will seriously try to re-industrialize. As China continues its rise, and as the US dollar loses its hegemonic status, the City of London financial center will continue to weaken and, well, the UK will have less and less the world wants, which is bad since the UK can’t even feed itself, and has limited natural resources, especially if Scotland leaves.

It’s over. The English had a good run from 1500 to 2000 or so, but all nations face periods of decline and poverty. Britain’s will soon be upon them, and given how authoritarian England is becoming, it won’t even have a lot of freedom to offer. If you’re British, and can, get out. Now.

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

Canada’s Future & The New Carney Government

Mark Carney

Carney has won a minority government. He will have to govern with the support of the NDP. The NDP was slaughtered in this election, and there were a few ridings where people strategically voting for the Liberals actually led to the Conservatives winning. Iit’s worth pointing out that the Conservatives increased their seat count, which is why Poilievre is sticking around as leader, despite losing the election and his own seat. (A loyal MP will stand down and let him run in a by-election in a safe riding.)

The NDP lost their official party status in this election and their vote percentage was cut in about half by strategic voting. They need to bargain hard with Carney in exchange for support and be willing to walk away. The most important thing, for them and Canada, is to change the voting system. Proportional would be ideal, but it’s unlikely the Liberals would go for it. They would probably go for ranked ballots, assuming, probably correctly, that they’ll be the most common second choice.

But it would also benefit the NDP and make it less likely for radical conservatives of the current variety to get into power.

If I were the NDP, I’d go to the wall for this. There’s likely to be more polarized elections in the future, because the Conservatives remain a Trumpist style party and a lot of natural NDP voters will keep going Liberal to try and block them. If they want to get back up to near 20% of the vote, this is necessary.

Now as to Canada’s future: it’s going to depend on whether Carney can actually deliver. If he can make Canadians better off and win another election, Poilievre is toast and Trump style conservatism will be discredited in Canada. If he doesn’t deliver: if effective wages don’t rise and if rent and housing prices don’t go down, then Poilievre or his successor’s Conservative party WILL win the next election, just based on disgruntled voters.

Carney’s talked a fair bit of sense: doubling building housing, pivoting to new trade partners and creating vertically integrated industries within Canada. If he can pull it off, he’ll go down as one of Canada’s greatest Prime Ministers. But, at the end of the day, Carney is a neoliberal, and his impulse to always cut taxes on the rich and so on is going to hold him back.

He also needs a full term to pull it off. A lot of pain is coming down the pike and the next couple years will be ugly.

And that means he needs to keep the NDP happy. If they stop supporting him before he turns things around (assuming he can) he’s toast, and the Conservatives are in. So the NDP may as well force him to do some other things: pharmacare and universal dental, probably.

It’s going to be an interesting few years for everyone. Carney was right when he said:

America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. But these are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, that will never ever happen...

Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over. The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that well not perfect has helped deliver prosperity for a country for decades, is over. 

But it’s also our new reality.

We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons. We have to look out for ourselves and above all we have to take care of each other.

The old system is over. Carney’s problem is that he doesn’t see that for a ton of Canadians the old system hasn’t been delivering for a long time.

Every country in the world will have to adapt to the new economic landscape. Some will succeed, others like Britain, will fail. It remains to be seen if Canada is one which adapts well. What is certain is that if Poilievre gets in, he will usher in a new era even worse than the old neoliberal one. He will be prostrate before the US, will slash the civil service, healthcare and so on and will turbocharge the oligarchy.

So Carney’s it. He wouldn’t have been my first choice, but if he doesn’t pull it off, no one will.

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

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