The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Nat Wilson Turner Page 1 of 6

Information Overlord: The Fall of Jensen Huang, Whodunit?

Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

What I Released This Week

From the Let It Roll Podcast

A lot of country music this week, but it’s great stuff. I should probably have put the Ken Burns episode earlier in the decade; oh well. The R&B episode is a particular favorite because I learned a TON from RJ Smith, and Black LA in the 40s was very much at the cutting edge of culture.

From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw & the Mad Squabbles Show


We’re about 2 weeks into our annual fundraiser. We’ve raised about $9,915 out of a $14,500 goal from 80 people. This blog is free for everyone to read, and we’ve got about ten thousand visitors a month. Of those about 6K are regulars.

The simplest truth of capitalism is that you get more of what you pay for. Money sends the message and resources required to do things. In most cases your power is tiny, one of millions, but this isn’t like that because the numbers and the need (to keep the blog and Ian running) are relatively small.

So if you value this blog, if it’s worth having around to you, please consider Subscribing or Donating.


 

What I’ve Been Reading and Watching

AI Bubble

Behind Jensen Huang’s spy scandal, a shadow war for Trump’s ear on China — Washington Post
Huang’s downfall, which has the potential to mark a dramatic shift in power, was ultimately set in motion by one of the capital’s most influential China hard-liners, national security adviser and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Rubio issued a memo warning Trump about the relationship between Huang and a suspected Chinese spy, based on a report generated by the CIA, according to a person familiar with the matter. Rubio used the CIA report to write his own, recasting the agency’s reporting in his own more assertive terms, the person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe confidential intelligence.

 

AI Bubble: ‘Circular financing is over’ | Ed Zitron — The Tech Report (YouTube).

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang RESIGNS After Second Affair – AI Stocks Crashing — Eli the Computer Guy (YouTube).

  • The Hater’s Guide To Megaspeed — Ed Zitron, Where’s Your Ed At. “Up until as recently as last week, talking about NVIDIA’s illicit shipments of GPUs would have seen you branded a conspiracy theorist or a ‘doomer,’ mostly because the allegations are so severe, but also because NVIDIA’s bull run was so impressive and rapid, the idea that any meaningful part of it was the result of anything underhand simply couldn’t register with the most dented cheerleaders for the AI bubble.
    “And yet, none of this should have been a surprise. Culper’s research — which I referenced heavily in the free piece — was published in May 2026, and it formed part of the basis for its short position. And it needs to be stressed how significant this is, and how much peril Culper would find itself in if it turned out to be wrong — and, therefore, how confident it was in its findings.
    “If Culper was wrong, it didn’t open itself up to potential civil action (US defamation law sets a higher bar than in other countries, like the UK or Australia, but it still exists), but also, if you’re wrong when making a short, the losses are theoretically infinite.
    “The Wall Street Journal’s piece (that ran on Wednesday) fails to square the circle of how the largest media outlets in the world ignored the story entirely, yet the most damning part is that even in accepting that Culper might be onto something, the Journal fails to mention that 20% of NVIDIA’s Fiscal Year 2026 revenue might have come from China, nor does it make any attempts to discuss the contents of the report.”
  • Jensen’s Bizarre Adventure — Ed Zitron, Where’s Your Ed At.

Bloomberg graphic: Shanghai Shuoyao and Megaspeed computing clusters overlap

Outages

Trump 2.0 Regime

Democrats

  • The Democrats’ First Move After Their Big Win? A Giveaway to Big Oil. — The New Republic.
  • Democrats Missed Hegseth Impeachment Vote While at a Fundraiser with Defense Lobbyists — Drop Site News.
  • Why Does Chuck Schumer Have So Much Support? — @matthewstoller. “Schumer’s model of operating the Senate is very specific. He allows Senators a lot of room to legislate on their priorities, and operates as a logistical center to get them what they need to have a comfortable job. Money, staff, parking spots, whatever. But especially money for reelection. He is a very hard worker, perhaps the hardest in the Senate.
    “Where does he get that money? Good question! Ironically, he gets it from those members themselves, indirectly. If they push legislation that challenges powerful interests, he uses that as leverage to get support from those interests, and then redirects that money to get those same people reelected. The legislation tends to die, as that is often the price for the money. Schumer also offers some adjacent useful policy choices that are incrementally useful to Senators on their pet questions. So it’s a sort of odd dynamic, where Senators spend their time doing busywork in order for Schumer to generate the funds to get them reelected to keep doing busywork.”
  • The Case For Jeffries — @matthewstoller. “Dem members of Congress and base voters see Hakeem Jeffries very differently. I’ll try to make the case for Jeffries, from the perspective of members. Ironically, they like him for the same reason voters don’t, which is that he’s nice and passive. He’s NOT Pelosi.”

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Information Overlord: Can Jeffries and Schumer Dam the Blue Wave?

Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

What I Released This Week

Election night kind of overwhelmed me; I’m not used to staying up that late! Will be more productive next week.

The Democrats are the dogs who caught the car and think they’re really fast and have strong jaws when in reality voter rage at Trump’s losing war on Iran, data center madness, the ongoing genocide in Gaza virtually guaranteed the opposition party a huge win.

It appears neither the House nor the Senate will overthrow the corrupt and incompetent leadership, so I’m not especially optimistic about the future, but it’s nice to see that American voters can still throw a tantrum and get noticed, however briefly.

From me as Nate Wilcox at the Let It Roll Podcast

The From the Beginning Project is hitting a fun patch. The 1930s were a spectacular decade for dance music. A massive depression will do that, and the U.S. was culturally potent like it had never been, combining cultures and rhythms in a way that got the whole world’s attention.


It’s Ian’s annual fundraiser. This allows us to cover the changeover of hegemony from America to China, environmental collapse, internal US fascism, what a better society would look like, Gaza, AI, the coming stock market crash and various other issues. As of this writing we’ve raised about $9,460 out of a $14,500 goal, from 75 people. It’d be great if you can help out (please don’t donate if your financial situation is dire.) You can Subscribe or Donate here or contact Ian at admin-at-ianwelsh-dot-net if you need another way to donate (mail, usually. A lot of cash apps don’t work in Canada.)


From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw & the Mad Squabbles Show

Will TKO Blame Dana White for Trump’s Midterm Disaster? — The Mad Squabbles Show (YouTube), Nov. 4th.

What I’ve Been Reading and Watching

Dems

Will the Democrats Betray Us Again? — The Chris Hedges Report (YouTube).

AI Bubble

OpenAI Is Screwed — The Tech Report (YouTube).

What Are All Those Data Centers For — Inside China Business (YouTube).

WTF Just Happened to Global Markets? — Eurodollar University (YouTube).

Crypto

North Korea Robbed Binance — Patrick Boyle (YouTube).

Deep State

  • 9/11 as a Structural Deep Event — Peter Dale Scott. “Early on the day of of 9/11 Vice-President Cheney and Defense Secretrary Donald Rumsfeld, while George W. Bush was absent in Florida, implemented the elaborate rules of Continuity of Government (COG), a once once described in Congress without rebuttal as ‘a plan to suspend the American Constitution.’ It was also a plan on which the same pair, Cheney and Rumsfeld, had been working on in secret for two decades – even when both men were outsude government and heading important private corporations.
    “I wrote in 2014 that with a few notable exceptions, there has thus far been scant interest in the media and the public in the extraordinary facts that Cheney and Rumsfeld were able to
    “1. help plan successfully for constitutional modifications, when they were not in government, and
    “2. implement these same changes themselves when back in power.”

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Information Overlord: Robert Johnson at the Crossroads, America in Decline

Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

What I Released This Week

From me as Nate Wilcox at the Let It Roll Podcast
A lot of blues this week, including a brand-new episode on St. Louis Blues (and Jazz and Ragtime).

From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw & the Mad Squabbles Show


It’s Ian’s annual fundraiser. This allows us to cover the changeover of hegemony from America to China, environmental collapse, internal US fascism, what a better society would look like, Gaza, AI, the coming stock market crash and various other issues. As of this writing we’ve raised about $5,120 out of a $14,500 goal, from 58 people. It’d be great if you can help out (please don’t donate if your financial situation is dire.) You can Subscribe or Donate here or contact Ian at admin-at-ianwelsh-dot-net if you need another way to donate (mail, usually. A lot of cash apps don’t work in Canada.)


What I’ve Been Reading and Watching

Iran War

FUTURE IRAN WAR PLAN – IT’s INSANE — Daniel Davis / Deep Dive (YouTube).

Yemen War

Yemeni-built weapons shape Saudi battle, with Jon Elmer — The Electronic Intifada (YouTube).

Israel

Ukraine

John Mearsheimer: Russia Will Win The Ukraine War And Take More Territory — Glenn Diesen Clips (YouTube).

Latin America

AI Bubble

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Information Overlord: Skydance + Musk, Egypt + Saudi Arabia

Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

What I Released This Week

From me as Nate Wilcox at the Let It Roll Podcast

From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw & the Mad Squabbles Show


It’s Ian’s annual fundraiser. This allows us to cover the changeover of hegemony from America to China, environmental collapse, internal US fascism, what a better society would look like, Gaza, AI, the coming stock market crash and various other issues. As of this writing we’ve raised about $3,185 out of a $14,500 goal, from 34 people. It’d be great if you can help out (please don’t donate if your financial situation is dire.) You can Subscribe or Donate here or contact me at admin-at-ianwelsh-dot-net if you need another way to donate (mail, usually. A lot of cash apps don’t work in Canada.)


What I’ve Been Reading and Watching

Trump Regime 2.0

  • The Pentagon Buyout King — The American Prospect. “Feinberg has been doing a little of everything at the Pentagon, overseeing nearly all of the administration’s pet projects. He supervises its investment units, which, staffed with former Cerberus execs, have been buying equity in and making huge loans to companies in the military supply chain, many of them with ties to the Trump family and other well-connected private investors. One of those investment offices, which the Biden administration stood up to make low-interest loans to backstop domestic defense production, is now involved in managing the United States’ Venezuela oil deal. It recently floated issuing a $5 billion loan for AI infrastructure development, in partnership with a new bank founded by defense tech billionaire Palmer Luckey. Another one is called the Economic Defense Unit; Feinberg created it himself earlier this year and installed George Kollitides, a former aide-de-camp at Cerberus, as its head. Kollitides also leads Feinberg’s new Business Operators for National Defense consortium, which plans to ‘embed’ hundreds of defense executives in Pentagon offices.”
  • The Wall Street Veteran Trying to Solve the Pentagon’s Missile Problem — Wall Street Journal. “Trump asked Feinberg why he was still seeing media reports that the U.S. had paused attacks on Iran amid concerns about dwindling weapons stocks, given Feinberg’s job was to improve those stocks.
    “‘The president wants more. The secretary wants more. I want more,’ Feinberg recently said, explaining his approach in his first interview since taking the job last year.
    “As the U.S. expends thousands of missiles in the Iran war, Feinberg is trying to speed up the Pentagon’s ability to get new weapons. The jury is still out on whether it will work.
    “Over the past year and a half, he has attempted a sweeping overhaul of the Defense Department’s approach to weapons production, establishing a new procurement bureaucracy reporting directly to him and taking billions of dollars in government stakes in companies that supply critical materials, rocket engines and other key parts.
    “In large part, he has relied on companies and executives familiar to him from his time running the investment firm he co-founded, Cerberus Capital Management.”
  • The Moment Katie Zacharia Found Out Her Five-Day Stint as Press Secretary Was Over — Wall Street Journal.

Saudi Arabia

  • Blood without representation: Why Saudi Arabia can’t stop the Houthis — Kulna. “Why can’t Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s biggest military spenders, stop the Houthis? The answer isn’t weapons. It’s the bargain the Gulf monarchies were built on, which is now breaking, and a decade of MBS’s absolute power that left the kingdom no way out.”
  • Rave. Fight. War. — Sportspolitika. “As the U.S. orders its diplomatic staff to leave the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are relying on combat sports and raves to maintain a facade of normalcy in a time of war.”
  • Bryan Fonseca on the Saudi events still going ahead — @BryanFonsecaNY. “Everyone has been canceling their Saudi-based events — except for ones that are TKO-backed.
    “Canelo vs. Mbilli (Oct. 31) and WWE Crown Jewel (Nov. 7) still set to move forward despite the ongoing war.
    “Zuffa is reportedly planning another boxing card on Nov. 14 in Riyadh.”

Drop Site News: Saudi Arabia has canceled or postponed a string of flagship international events amid the regional war and escalating Ansarallah strikes

  • Turki Alalshikh announces the return of Riyadh Season — @Turki_alalshikh. “With the support and empowerment of His Highness the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, and His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince, sponsor of the Vision and our inspiring leader, Riyadh Season returns with diverse entertainment events and experiences, exceptional sports championships, and varied musical concerts and theatrical shows 🇸🇦♥️
    “Welcome to Riyadh Season”
  • Saudi Arabia executes a man for charges he allegedly committed at 14 — @DropSiteNews. “Saudi Arabia announced Saturday it had executed a man convicted of charges he allegedly committed at 14: befriending people who were detained or wanted by the state, according to court documents reviewed by Human Rights Watch.”

UAE

Skydance

  • Elon Musk makes $1 billion investment in Ellison’s Skydance — Semafor. “Elon Musk has invested roughly $1 billion in Skydance, according to people familiar with the matter, providing a much needed financial injection as the company looks to cut costs and bolster its stock price.
    “The deal came together at roughly the same time as equity investments from Skydance’s other investors, including board member Laurene Powell Jobs, the people said. Semafor reported in September that Paramount was considering seeking an equity injection from Musk.
    “Musk has publicly praised the Ellisons and Skydance, prompting speculation of a more expansive partnership between Musk’s lower-earth-orbit satellite network, Starlink, and Skydance.
    “‘He’s gonna have to re-engineer all of those channels, and figure out how they morph into streams themselves rather than just traditional linear,’ billionaire cable executive John Malone said Tuesday.”
  • CBS’ DraftKings Gamble — Status. “Late last week, as local stations around the country continued to prepare for Election Day, executives at CBS’ owned and operated television stations learned of an unexpected curveball from corporate management. Their election coverage, they learned, would now be sponsored by the sports gambling site DraftKings.”

Israel

Ukraine

Dem Collapse

Mehdi Hasan INTERROGATES Neera Tanden for hosting Benjamin Netanyahu — @ClippingWings.

https://x.com/ClippingWings/status/2110922837506568642

GOP Hacks

  • ICE Barbie Goon Unmasked as Creator of MAGA’s Vilest Ad — The Daily Beast. “The man behind Kristi Noem’s infamous horseback commercial at Homeland Security has been exposed as the creator of Vivek Ramaswamy’s vile new attack ad, a new report alleges.
    “The Rooster reports that The Strategy Group Company, run by Benjamin Yoho, is the creator of the ad featuring an interview with Democratic candidate Amy Acton’s estranged mother, in which she casts doubt on her daughter being a victim of horrific childhood abuse.”

Uprisings

Psychopathology

  • You Can’t Know Everything — Unpopular Front. “Here’s what I think is going on with Elizabeth Holmes: She has an extremely severe form of the defense mechanism that Melanie Klein called splitting—dividing self and world into unambiguous ‘good’ or ‘bad.’ She cannot admit that she has any bad qualities: any aggression, any selfishness, any tendency to deceive others, or even any of the more positive forms of aggressiveness like ambition. On her account, her motivations are all benevolent, idealistic, and noble. She even says she never lies! Now, I believe a consciously deceptive person would admit that they, like everyone else, lie casually from time to time to avoid hurting others or to get out of inconvenient situations, but they avoid lying in serious issues or have a strong ethical aversion to lying. A total denial of lying immediately raises red flags: It is not an effective strategy for building trust. Usually, hearing something like that is a sign of someone being a little bit crazy. She cannot face or integrate that aggressive part of herself. Most mature adults with healthy psyches can admit to themselves and others that they have some less than stellar qualities—that they can be selfish or even destructive at times—although they balance that behavior out with nice qualities, for example, the capacity for love and kindness, and the ability to make amends when they do wrong.”

Conspiraversy

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Information Overlord: West Asia War Overwhelms Political and Business Coverage

Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency
What I Wrote This Week

From me as Nate Wilcox at the Let It Roll Podcast

From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw & the Mad Squabbles Show

Dana White: Eddie Hearn is WEAK — The Mad Squabbles Show (YouTube), 15 Oct.

Saudis play a big game of CHICKEN with Canelo Alvarez as Houthis drone Riyadh — The Mad Squabbles Show (YouTube), 12 Oct.

What I’ve Been Reading and Watching

Trump 2.0 Regime

  • Trump’s furious phone call over missing $5.6m: Alina Habba accuses MAGA loyalist Richard Grenell in feud over her billionaire husband’s money — Daily Mail.
  • Nasty email fight between 2 top Trump appointees spills into the open — Politico. Zampolli is the Epstein associate who brought Melania Trump to the US. “2 top Trump officials, Deputy Secretary of State Chris Landau and special envoy Paolo Zampolli, have been embroiled in a monthslong fight that include leak accusations and ‘bizarre’ defamation threats — in emails that include many other colleagues.
    “The emails, which I obtained, show Zampolli and Landau disagreeing over chains of command as Landau admonishes Zampolli to stick to his remit on cultural issues — but devolve into bitter arguments and unproven allegations.
    “I am hereby ordering you–once again–to immediately stop all work on ANY issues not directly tied to cultural diplomacy, including every one of the issues you mentioned in your recent emails,’ Landau wrote to Zampolli, a personal friend of Trump’s, in one email from Nov. 2025.
    “In one email to Zampolli, he said that working on issues outside the scope of his authority ‘and in contravention of my express directives, may expose you to disciplinary action, dismissal, and legal liability.’ Landau wrote that he was ‘committed to a path of insubordination.
    “In two in-depth telephone interviews with me, one of which lasted more than 45 minutes, Zampolli continued his criticism of Landau, saying that he ‘has been attacking me from Day 1’ and ‘everything I did, he tried to destroy it. … Definitely, he has a problem with me.”
  • Trump ally removed from role after report of State Department feud — CNN.
  • He Crafted a Crypto Law for Trump—as His Company Got Millions From a Crypto Giant — Wall Street Journal. “Money from Tether flowed to Nxum while Bo Hines worked in the White House on landmark stablecoin legislation. Once the law passed, Tether hired him as its U.S. chief.”

AI Bubble

  • AI Cockroaches Scurry Out from Under Nvidia, the Most Valuable Company in the World — Big by Matt Stoller. “…the best way to understand where the scammers are isn’t to look at a particular industry sector, but to follow the scammers from industry to industry. As a contact put it, ‘This is like the SPAC craze of 2021. Whatever the hot thing of the day is, that is what the grifters will gravitate to. Shell companies did reverse takeovers with Chinese firms, the biotech bubble, shale, and others. Stock promoters will promote.’ In other words, the same people just move from scam to scam, since unethical stock promotion itself is their business.”
  • Companies rushed in on AI. Now some are pulling back — The Guardian. “Employers are navigating a flood of errors and low-quality work that are sapping employee time, raising privacy and security risks and pushing up costs. Now, some businesses that started off fast and furious on AI are pumping the brakes, implementing restrictions where experimentation was once encouraged, bringing back experienced workers and upping training efforts.
    “C-suite leaders say when it comes to AI, there’s a sense that ‘we’re driving the truck and building it at the same time, and that’s a problem,’ said Johnny C Taylor Jr, president and CEO of the Society for Human Resource Management. ‘If we could all rewind … we would have introduced [this] in a more thoughtful, slow way.
    “Despite billions of dollars that firms around the globe have invested in AI over the past few years, major returns remain to be seen: 90% of executives say AI efforts have yet to translate to productivity gains at their companies, according to an Atlanta Federal Reserve working paper. And an Ernst & Young survey published last month found that 36% of senior AI executives at companies with at least $1bn in annual revenue reported an AI incident that led to issues including data loss, financial damage, brand damage or operational disruptions.”

Silicon Valley Crazies

  • A Billionaire Has A Psychotic Religious Break With Reality — Ian Welsh. “Now it’s possible that Thiel is just running an op–that he doesn’t believe any of this and is simply trying to whip up religious folks, especially Evangelicals (a religion that is reversal of much of what Jesus preached) against policies he hates. Being kind, perhaps he genuinely thinks that the world is in danger of world government and it will be achieved thru fear.
    “But I think it’s more likely he’s had a religious psychotic break, confusing his own desires and prejudices with religious teachings.”

Dystopia

  • The Endgame of Surveillance And Autonomous Robots Approaches — Ian Welsh. “…governments and any big corp that cares enough will know exactly where you go, and where you’ve been. They can alter footage to embarrass you or frame you for a crime. They can fairly easily listen in to what you say, even when you’re not using the phone.
    “Then we have autonomous armed robots. The armed robot dogs are already here, same with armed flying drones. The great problem for elites is always the issue of enforcer reliability. This is why Saudi Arabia is getting its ass kicked on the ground, because they deliberately crippled their troops to reduce the possibility of a coup.
    “Now, add in AI, which elites hope will allow them to replace technical workers: the problem with using all this tech is that you still have the enforcer issue: but if the autonomous robots can be maintained and built by AI, well, that problem is lessened. (Some people will still be necessary, but far less.)
    “This enables a full panopticon on daily life, especially for people who use ‘smart’ home devices, which are notorious for the data they send home. They’ll know who you are, what you’re doing, who you associate with, how much money you have, what you spend it on, etc, etc… Then they’ve got their robots to take you out, or they can frame you by altering the video that they have of you to show you committing a crime.”
  • Who Gets Paid: ClipIt and Israel’s $55.5 Million American Campaign — @leahfiles. “So many of you asked me to look into ClipIt, the company paying people by the view to post political clips. I did, and it connects to Israel’s $55.5 million American campaign, Trump’s former campaign manager, Turning Point and the operatives working for the Speaker of the House.
    “A few highlights are below, and the full article with receipts is up on Substack now (link in bio, and it’s free).
    “(1) The man who runs ClipIt goes by ‘Matt Servius’ online and has never been publicly named. Wyoming and Latvian records point to Matīss Tabūns, a 23-year-old in Talsi, Latvia, who formed ClipIt’s American company on May 28, 2025, with a one-dollar stake.
    “(2) Fourteen days later, on June 11, Brad Parscale formed Clock Tower X. It went on to register as Israel’s foreign agent.
    “(3) ClipIt’s own records label a campaign ‘Political’ for December 14 to 21, the week of AmericaFest. In those same days, Clock Tower X took in $6 million from Israel.
    “(4) ClipIt’s campaigns kept Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson out of their clips. Israel’s campaign websites attacked both of them by name.
    “(5) Israel’s campaign made its own clip titled ‘Charlie Kirk,’ and its contract appears written to collect repost rights to content made by outside influencers.
    “(6) Everyone keeps asking who paid. ClipIt paid its clippers from a $20 million crypto wallet that traces back to Stripe’s stablecoin system, and one clipper thanked the boss for his ‘Political Payout of December.’ That means an American company has the name of whoever ordered the political payouts, and that record can be subpoenaed.
    “(7) ClipIt rewrote its terms the day before The Atlantic’s story ran. Then it changed its founding year and blocked visitors from the United States.
    “(8) Israel’s campaign sent $4.4 million for ‘media placement’ to a firm run by Mike Shields. His other firm has been paid $2.98 million by Speaker Mike Johnson’s campaign.
    “(9) Parscale’s Israel firm uses the same Ohio office suite as his company’s White House contract.
    “(10) Turning Point denies working with ClipIt. But, it has paid Jake Hoffman’s firms millions a year, and Hoffman ran Turning Point’s 2020 teen troll farm. The attack operation on X reeks of Jake Hoffman’s troll famrs”

The Leah Files: Who gets paid

Oil Prices

  • Why did China just save the world economy? — Arnaud Bertrand. “This is one of the biggest geopolitical mysteries of the year: why did China just save the world economy?
    “Because, make no mistake, it absolutely did. Analysts are pretty much unanimous on this: had China not dramatically – and I mean dramatically – reduced its imports of oil this year, the price of crude oil would have gone through the roof and dragged the global economy down with it.”

Gulf Money

  • Evaluating the PIF’s Financial Performance and New Strategic Direction — Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “In its new strategy, the Saudi Public Investment Fund seems to focus more on investment returns and less on asset growth. How this will work in practice is less clear, including what it means for the future of existing projects, such as Neom.
    “After more than doubling between 2021 and 2024, the PIF’s assets under management declined by 1% in 2025, from $916 billion to $906 billion. Further, the rate of return on assets under management was -4.4% (author estimate), largely due to the poor performance of the Saudi equity market. The negative return was not fully offset by new investments or incoming asset transfers. Most of the growth in assets under management in recent years has come from the government’s transfer of 16% of Aramco’s equity (valued at around $320 billion) to the PIF.
    “The rate of return on the PIF’s assets under management has been negative in three of the past five years. The average return over this period is estimated at 4.7% per year and was mostly accounted for by a 25% return in 2021. Over the same five-year period, global equity markets have risen by over 10% per year on average, and Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global and Alaska’s Permanent Fund Corporation, which both manage diversified global portfolios, have returned around 9% per year. To put this difference in returns in perspective, if the PIF’s rate of return had been the same as the Norway fund over the past five years, its assets under management could have been $110 billion higher by the end of 2025.”

Contributions to Growth in PIF Assets Under Management, end-2020 to end-2025

Latin America

  • Whistleblower Exposes Meta, Bolsonaro, and Cerimedo Election Meddling Partnership — Pan American Dispatch. “On August 18, Fernando Cerimedo was arrested in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, for hiring hitmen to assassinate his ex-partner, Nadia Beller, who was pregnant at the time, after she threatened to go public about his large-scale illegal bot farm operations to throw elections for far-right candidates across Latin America. Still recovering from the multiple gunshot wounds she miraculously survived, she gave an interview this week on the Ventana al Mundo program on Mexico’s public television network, Channel 14. During the interview, she explained how Cerimedo and a member of the Bolsonaro family, who is assumed to be Flavio’s brother Eduardo, met with Meta officials to plot interference in Brazil’s presidential elections. She also said Cerimedo’s largest bot farms are still operating, and that his group is planning to interfere in the Claudia Sheinbaum administration in Mexico.”

What I Watched

Ori Goldberg Tribute Part 2 w/ a Special Introduction by J.G. Michael — Parallax Views (YouTube). Outspoken Anti-Zionist Israelis Are a Rare Breed, RIP to a Real One

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Texas Senate Race Features Fictions About Talarico vs. Plentiful Paxton Scandals

The Texas GOP used to be really, really good at ruining Democratic candidates. Today’s GOP? Not so much.

This year’s Texas Senate race continues to astonish and amaze.

The Democrats have nominated State Representative James Talarico, a slightly less smarmy, not-gay Pete Buttigieg-type who has managed to offend virtually no one despite battling and beating the noxious Jasmine Crockett in a racially charged primary.

For their part, the Republicans nominated the once-impeached, often-indicted Attorney General Ken Paxton after a $130 million primary.

You have to give Texas Republicans some credit; almost 1.3 million of them voted against Paxton in the first round of the primary. Unfortunately for the GOP, only a little more than 500K of them showed up for the runoff, and Paxton’s hardcore MAGA supporters came out in force, nearly matching their opening round numbers, crushing the incumbent US Senator 63.8% to 36.2%.

Even with Paxton’s extremely checkered past featuring everything from accusations of stock fraud to multiple sex scandals and a tabloid-friendly “Biblical divorce,” Paxton might have cruised to victory had it not been for Donald Trump’s war of choice against Iran and the ensuing rise in gasoline prices around Labor Day.

Or maybe it was the $40M in ads Talarico and his allies ran between the May runoff and the GOP’s September convention vs less than $27 million by Paxton-aligned groups. Not long after, a desperate GOP poured over $122 million into ads in September, but that doesn’t seem to have mattered much.

Perhaps it’s because the modern Texas GOP doesn’t know what it’s doing.

For comparison, let’s review the résumé of one Karl Rove. Though commonly derided as a RINO (Republican In Name Only) today, Rove was the most feared and most successful political operative of his era.

Not only did he propel the utterly mediocre George W. Bush to two Texas gubernatorial terms and two terms as POTUS, but Rove also ratfucked an entire generation of Texas Democrats.

Karl Rove, King of the Ratfuckers

Rove systematically targeted the most talented young Democrats — with a special eye for Hispanics — and took them out with career-ruining capers that ensured the once-dominant party would go down and stay down for decades.

Here’s a quick and dirty run-through of his résumé:

I was directly involved in the 60 Minutes caper, having helped break the story that Ben Barnes, the Vietnam-era Speaker of the Texas House and later Lt. Governor, had admitted to helping George W. Bush get into the Texas National Guard. We thought that the 60 Minutes story would be a critical blow against Bush in his re-election campaign, and instead the story somehow became a tale of a forged version of a real document that right-wing bloggers instantly caught, supposedly by catching an on-screen glance that revealed a font face that didn’t exist at the time of the document’s creation.

60 Minutes thought it had carefully vetted the story and established that the document was true, but they never thought to check and see if the copy of the document they had was a forgery. Turns out that Bush’s people had had extensive access to his National Guard records in the 1990s and presumably left many such Easter eggs behind.

Point being, the guy was dangerous and a master of narrative manipulation who would stop at nothing to win elections and destroy his political opponents.

Now let’s compare and contrast with today’s GOP.

The Talarico Ohio Hospitalization Farce

The TL;DR version: James Talarico caught the flu and was off the campaign trail for 9 days. While he was away, a cast of online nitwits spawned a rumor out of whole cloth that he was in an Ohio mental hospital, and multiple big-time right-wingers, including Laura Loomer, Stephen Miller, the Paxton campaign, Elon Musk, and Paxton himself, amplified the tale.

This account did some interesting forensics on how the calumny spread online:

The masterminds are getting some richly deserved attention:

Jacqueline Sweet has some juicy allegations about Nick Sortor. Transphobic journalist Jesse Singal has quite a bit of dirt on the woman on the lower right who goes by @TickleTexts

The caper is being linked directly to the Paxton campaign.

Karl Rove, they ain’t.

But the kerfuffle seems to have unleashed a whole torrent of no good, very bad press about Paxton, all of which has the nasty trait of being fact-based.

Paxton’s Remarkable News Cycle

I’m just going to bullet point the headlines, because the dude is drowning in scandal:

He’s also closely tied to his peers at the top of the GOP ticket:

All I can say is, if Texas voters send this rancid scumbag to the US Senate, we deserve what we get.

Polling Shows Something Very Unusual

But the latest ReconMR/Siena poll has one particularly encouraging bit of news. It shows Talarico up 48% to 44% for Paxton, with Talarico down a point since September. But the cross-tabs showed something very interesting:

Dem: Talarico 92-2
Republicans: Paxton 87-7
Indies: Talarico 60-30

White: Paxton 49-45
Black: Talarico 67-19
Hispanic: Talarico 50-41

Austin region: Talarico 74-21
DFW: Talarico 49-41
Houston: Talarico 46-44
Rural: Paxton 55-37
San Antonio/South: Talarico 56-39

As former Texas Tribune editor Evan Smith pointed out, no Democrat running statewide has cracked 25% among rural voters in six straight elections.

Information Overlord: It’s Ari Emanuel’s World and We Just Watch Skydance In It

Nat Wilson Turner Information Overlord: Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

What I Released This Week

From me as Nate Wilcox at the Let It Roll Podcast

From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw & the Mad Squabbles Show

UFC Boss Brags About Backstabbing Vince McMahon — The Mad Squabbles Show (YouTube), 7 Oct.

What I’ve Been Reading and Watching

AI Bubble

  • A.I. Groups Are Spending Millions to Influence the Midterms — New York Times. “A New York Times analysis of federal campaign finance data shows that the political groups aligned with the two leading A.I. developers, OpenAI and Anthropic, have quietly but decisively intervened in key 2026 races, spending on campaign advertising and outreach to voters to the tune of $55.7 million.
    “So far, the spending has been concentrated almost entirely in the primaries. The two groups have spent $52.6 million on safe seats — those that are unlikely to change party hands but that often feature intense intraparty contests. The big A.I. players have also spent more heavily for Democrats than Republicans. They have boosted candidates who align with their agendas, helped defeat those they see as hostile to it and ingratiated themselves with front-runners who are likely to be in positions of power in the next Congress to make decisions critical to their bottom lines.
    “But with voters quickly souring on their industry — including demanding that lawmakers do more to regulate A.I. and halt or mitigate the proliferation of data centers — they have taken pains to obscure their involvement. With few exceptions, they have intervened without ever explicitly mentioning A.I. or data centers in the TV and digital ads they have purchased.”
  • The Empty Brain — Aeon. Your brain does not process information, retrieve knowledge or store memories. In short: your brain is not a computer.
  • Timnit Gebru Believes There Is No ‘Existential Threat’ From AI — Wired. One of AI’s fiercest critics believes the doom talk is about founders making money, not saving humanity.
  • Are Big Tech bonds crowding out the US Treasury? — Financial Times.

  • The AI Cloud Oligopoly — Michael Burry. “I have recently considered that the tech giants, but for Apple, are spending as if their lives depended on it when their lives clearly do not.
    “Monopolies almost by definition need not spend wildly as if their lives depended on it.
    “This deserved no small further contemplation, although rather quickly it dawned on me that they expect this just to be another monopoly rent they collect, that they collectively have the expectation the government will tolerate their oligopoly on AI.
    “Nay, will tolerate and fear it.
    “So the evil gambit is to create and to allow this AI to grow on their machines, where they will threaten to control both economic and political forces greater than humanity has ever seen, overwhelming any politician’s, or politicians’, might.
    “Why are OpenAI and Anthropic and Oracle also spending so much? Surely they are not monopolies?!?
    “No, but they intend to be part of the oligopoly. None can imagine breaking the dominance of a Microsoft, Amazon, Google, or Meta within each silo.
    “However, there is clearly an opportunity to join in that dominance under cover of a new paradigm. The power and riches expected by these companies are evidently so great that even Larry Ellison was seduced to bet his company on it.
    “This brings new meaning to technocracy, and whether such is what we face. What is really scary is that other than the grab for market power, all this spending does not have a defined goal or economic end-point. As such, the consequences are likely unknowable to all. Yet they do it anyway.
    “The governments most interested in this technology seem to be the autocratic ones and the United States. A good set-up for a lot of drama, if not terror.”

Ellison Empire

  • Looking at the Ugly Side of the Paramount-Skydance Merger…And How I’d Fix It — The Entertainment Strategy Guy. “More than one person sent me a note speculating that the big problem with Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros. Discovery is the “Warner Bros.” portion of the deal. In fact, that’s a take I read a lot about Warner Bros., ever since they caught Netflix’s, and then Paramount-Skydance’s, eye. In short, multiple companies (Time, AOL, AT&T, Discovery) have bought and then regretted buying Warner Bros.
    “if you want to add a traditional Hollywood studio to your portfolio (be it a magazine publisher, internet service provider, cellular phone company, linear cable bundle or rival movie studio), you have to convince the owners to sell.
    “And that usually means overpaying. The opposing executive team has to want to sell, and then they have to clear it with their shareholders. Overpaying accomplishes this. (This is a variant of the winner’s curse in auctions.)
    “So that’s the price of the deal. And usually it shows up on balance sheets as…
    “Debt.
    “Indeed, the history of Warner Bros. buyers is folks taking on wayyyyyy too much debt to buy the company. Servicing that debt cripples the new combined enterprise. And they can’t invest in new opportunities. And often they make bad decisions to help pay off that debt. Eventually, this impacts the stock price, so they sell. Then the cycle with Warner Bros. starts again!”
  • What David Ellison’s Latest Moves Say About How He’ll Lead Now — Wall Street Journal.
  • A High-Stakes Gambit Clinched Paramount’s Warner Deal — Wall Street Journal.
    • Ellison waged a concerted behind-the-scenes campaign, people familiar with the matter said.He crisscrossed the country courting politicians, hired well-connected operatives and lobbyists to work regulators and lawmakers, cultivated allies among Republicans and Democrats and, in a pivotal move, even threatened to move his empire out of California.California Gov. Gavin Newsom publicly called on the two sides to settle the matter, and privately encouraged the attorney general to go to the table. Ellison met with Newsom on more than one occasion, the people familiar with the matter said.
      …
      Next, Ellison had to get the deal through regulators here and abroad.That task fell primarily to chief legal officer Makan Delrahim, one of Ellison’s first hires after acquiring Paramount. Ellison set up a war room on the Paramount lot where he, Delrahim and one or two other executives would meet daily to map out strategy and measure progress, said one of the people familiar with the matter.A former Trump administration antitrust chief, Delrahim was intimately familiar with Warner. As head of the Justice Department’s antitrust division, he led the government’s ultimately unsuccessful effort to block AT&T’s acquisition of what was then called Time Warner, in 2018.

      One of Delrahim’s first moves was to tap Jon Leibowitz, who chaired the Federal Trade Commission under President Barack Obama, as an outside antitrust adviser.

      Getting approval from the Justice Department came with relative ease, as did approvals from the European Union, United Kingdom, China and other regions.

      But a hurdle emerged when California’s Bonta, joined by 11 other states, including New York, Connecticut and Colorado, sued to block the merger on antitrust grounds. The states alleged the deal would illegally consolidate markets including those for theatrical films and basic cable channels.
      …
      Meanwhile, Ellison and his team began making their case to Newsom and warned that Paramount would pack up and move to another state if the deal was blocked. The company spoke to officials in Tennessee about a potential move, The Wall Street Journal reported.

      While Bonta categorized those threats as bluster and blackmail, people close to Ellison said they were genuine. That message was conveyed to Newsom, the people familiar with the matter said.

      In early August, Ellison tapped former California Assembly Speaker and Democratic power broker Fabian Núñez to help build political support for the deal in Sacramento.

      Núñez, founder of the consulting firm Actum, met frequently with Bonta’s office in an effort to broker peace. Ellison also enlisted Democratic former California Sen. Barbara Boxer and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to help, both of whom are partners with Actum, people familiar with the matter said.

  • Ari Emanuel Tours His Book and Hollywood Yawns: ‘No One Gave a F—k’ — The Wrap.
    Hollywood didn’t bother to show up. A few rows up front were reserved for Emanuel’s friends and VIPs which consisted of some family members, his close pal, director Pete Berg, and some agents, according to one person who sat nearby. The green room had a small selection of friends, no more than 20, circulating afterward. The audience was made up of “civilians,” as one person put it, rather than the insider VIPs that Emanuel, as one of Hollywood’s most powerful players, should command.Just as well, though, because apparently Emanuel was really boring. He did not hold forth on the accumulated wisdom of his 40 years in the industry: building an agency, taking over a legacy rival, buying companies like the UFC and WWE for billions of dollars, pushing hard into live sports and going public and then private again.Instead, he fell back on his grievances with his previous longtime partner Patrick Whitesell, who he swears he will never talk to again; complained about Jeffrey Katzenberg and President Joe Biden; and parried Swisher’s probing about his friendship with Elon Musk. By all accounts, it didn’t land with an audience that wasn’t interested in these personal scores.
  • Paramount Stock CRUSHED After Merger with Warner Discovery Closes — Big by Matt Stoller.
    The transition is not promising. Consider the two things that David Ellison did after buying Warner Discovery. He organized mass layoffs, and he gave himself and his entire executive team a big raise. Specifically, Ellison awarded himself a $150 million bonus upon closing the purchase, even though he doesn’t need the money, and has accomplished absolutely nothing except saddling two historic movie studios with $80 billion in debt.His legal consigliere, Makan Delrahim, received $25 million, and his operating officer Andrew Brandon-Gordon got $38 million. To do the layoffs, he hired Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz, and paid him $46.5 million. That’s all on top of the massive $550 million payout to former Warner CEO David Zaslav, which was negotiated as part of the deal.Amid that backdrop of endless zeros for executives, the layoffs will be significant, and Kreiz and Ellison sent a memo on the “difficult decisions” ahead. That’s a crushing blow to morale, since it says very explicitly, “we’re not all in it together.” Every employee at Skydance has essentially been told to act like a mercenary and to extract as much as he or she can while he or she can.

UAE

  • Khaldoon Al Mubarak is the man trying to pull City back from brink of football oblivion — The Telegraph. The Telegram fluffs Khaldoon. “It was November last year and City had just been beaten 2-0 at home by Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League after Guardiola, as needlessly as inexplicably, made 10 changes to the team.
    “Al Mubarak was furious and expressed as much privately to Ferran Soriano, the City chief executive. “I can’t speak to him [Guardiola],” he said. “Honestly, I didn’t speak to him yesterday and didn’t message him and I can’t speak to him today I’m so angry. He’s put a mix in this that’s so unnecessary.”
    “But it was what Al Mubarak said next that cut to the heart of how one of the most powerful, influential and recognisable non-royals in Abu Dhabi likes to conduct himself.
    ““Let’s let this pass then we’ll talk about it in the right way with a constructive approach,” he said.
    “Perhaps it should be little surprise that a skilled business leader and government policymaker who has played crucial roles in brokering nuclear non-proliferation deals and long straddled the worlds of global finance and international diplomacy was not going to let his heart rule his head and overreact.
    “After all, you do not become the planet’s longest-serving head of a sovereign wealth fund and a key strategist by being a hot head prone to wading in with both feet when something irks you, even in a sport as emotive as football.”
  • A Soccer Cheating Scandal Has Ballooned Into a Geopolitical Problem for Britain — Wall Street Journal. The UK finds that selling your most beloved cultural institution to an amoral family fiefdom comes with strings. “The acquisition of Manchester City by an Abu Dhabi royal was always much more than a billionaire buying himself a shiny foreign toy.
    “From the very start, the project was the tip of a soft-power campaign to entrench the tiny Emirate deep in the British economy.
    “Now, 18 years later, it has emerged that the club was at the heart of the largest cheating scheme in English soccer history. And as City, which denies any wrongdoing, awaits an unprecedented penalty for financial doping, the scandal has rippled all the way to new Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
    “The predicament is especially awkward for Burnham, who built much of his political appeal on his everyman soccer-fan image, but now finds himself caught between a major investor in the U.K. economy and defending the integrity of the Premier League, Britain’s most popular cultural export since the Beatles.
    ““This does need to be done carefully without everybody jumping in and providing their conclusions,” said Burnham, who in his previous job as mayor of Manchester lobbied against punishing his beloved Everton for similar, smaller-scale infractions.
    “The U.K. has spent much of the past decade wooing the U.A.E. to invest in the country in an attempt to kick-start its slow-growing economy. A Sovereign Investment Partnership between the two counties, announced in 2021, initially targeting £10 billion over five years, has already seen nearly £30 billion committed across more than 50 direct investments.”
  • The chairman of scandal-hit Man City has worked with Trump and Macron as part of the UAE elite — AP. The UAE connects Trump, the Ellisons, Ari Emanuel’s TKO empire, and the UK in a web of corrupt dealings. “Khaldoon Al Mubarak, chairman of the scandal-plagued Manchester City soccer club, sat with Donald Trump in Davos this year, signing on to the U.S. president’s Board of Peace on behalf of the United Arab Emirates government.
    “He was with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Palace of Versailles in June at a signing ceremony for a business summit.
    “Al Mubarak, 50, also is a UAE special envoy to China, and welcomed Xi Jinping to the club when the Chinese leader visited England in 2015.
    “Why the head of an English soccer club — albeit one of the wealthiest, most successful and now highly controversial — should be a key player at such political events is easily explained.
    “Al Mubarak, the public face of the 2023 Champions League winner now embroiled in one of soccer’s biggest scandals, is a member of the ruling elite in Abu Dhabi — part of the United Arab Emirates — and the head of a $385 billion sovereign wealth fund.”

UK PM Andy Burnham on Man City — @BBCSport. “‘I haven’t downplayed the seriousness of the findings.’
“Andy Burnham has addressed concerns that he devalued the verdict against Man City after the club were found guilty of Premier League financial rule breaches.”

Israel

  • Nothing has changed, and everything is changing — Alon Mizrahi. “…since October 7, I avoided Israel as much as I could. And it hadn’t felt like my place and my home for a while before that. This didn’t begin on October 7. Nothing began on October 7. But since October 7,
    “as I had a very early realization that this was a fateful event and life was not going to return to normal. And even more than that, and I shared this a couple of times, I had a very strong feeling that this was the beginning of the end of Israel
    “and I needed to be somewhere else and I want my family to be somewhere else. And I did that. To make a long story short, I spent some time in Israel this year and also very recently. And this gave me a chance to look at Israel, to see Israeli society, to hear Israelis, to look at Israeli media.
    “It’s not the same when you’re in and when you’re out. It’s not the same. It feels different. And since I really love to observe people and societies, this is one of my favorite things in the world to do, really. I took the opportunity to look and see. Not that I was expecting any surprises.
    “I mean, this is Israel. After all, I grew up in it. I know it so well. It’s a society. It’s a… It is a political creation that doesn’t change. The discourse, the narratives, the beliefs, the talking points, everything is on endless repeat. Nothing ever changes and this is really a very clear sign of a manufactured identity.
    “If you always say the same things and think the same things and react the same way and repeat the same talking points, no matter what happens in reality, it means that your very sense of self and reality and where you come from is false. Because in real life, you react differently to different things.”

Trump Regime

  • The Speech That Gets You Banned From America — Ken Klippenstein. “Secretary of State Marco Rubio has formally decided to bar some on the political “left” from visiting America, according to a diplomatic cable he sent to embassies this week.
    “When I obtained a copy of the internal cable banning those in vaguely “aligned groups” of “far-left terrorists,” I couldn’t help but laugh at the timing. The next day, Rubio was in Greece where, with the Acropolis behind him, he celebrated “free debate and public discussion, the contest of mind with mind.””
  • ‘Honey Please’: Kimberly Guilfoyle Pushed Donor to Wire $100,000 to Her Amex Account — Wall Street Journal.

Democrats

  • Democrats Have a Bill Maher Problem — The Nation. “Establishment Democrats obsessing over Hasan Piker’s every move seem to have no issue talking to Maher, despite his decades of open bigotry.”

Yemen

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Jasmine Crockett and the Dick Cheney Wing of the Dem Party Have All Got to Go

Jasmine Crockett Offered Lobbying Services on Her Campaign-Funded Website – While in Office

I saw the above over the weekend and, while I can’t say I was shocked exactly, I was nonplussed for just a second at the appalling gaucheness of this latest new low from the ought-to-be-disgraced soon-to-be-former-US-Rep from Dallas.

I was not impressed by Rep. Crockett from the first time she came to my attention, using slurs to mock Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s disability — and I have loathed Abbott for decades — and trashing Marjorie Taylor Greene’s appearance.

I noticed immediately that Crockett’s knack for getting attention online and from the MSM didn’t correlate with legislative accomplishment or progressive positions.

Most important for me was the contrast with MTG, who sacrificed her political career in opposition to Israel’s genocide in Gaza, where Crockett offered nothing but hairsplitting and excuses on the most important moral crisis of our era.

I’ve been trying to warn people about Crockett since July 2025 and really ramped it up last December, when she took the bait from the GOP Senate Campaign Committee (which had been featuring her in push polls for months) and entered the primary for the US Senate race.

The campaign was a total shitshow, centered on divisive identity politics, some of which she blundered into with stupid comments about Latino Trump voters and some of which she leaned into hard, all of which was divisive nonsense that couldn’t have been better calculated to play into Republican hands.

She didn’t even bother to hire a campaign manager, a tip-off that serving the people of Texas in the US Senate wasn’t her top priority.

Her top priority appeared to be accusing her critics of racism and sexism.

Crockett made no secret of her cynicism, openly calling the race a no-hoper and saying, “If you think it’s a losing cause, then who cares? But at least you could say we tried something new and we learned something from this experience.”

Her primary campaign in general was a fiasco, as one former Texas State House colleague told Politico:

“People who don’t understand politics will be upset because Jasmine was their hero,” said Texas state Rep. Jolanda Jones, a Democrat. “But for people who understand politics, [Crockett] literally had no ground game.”

She added: “This L is on her.”

Crockett also played it real cute about whether or not she supported Israel, but made no secret of being funded by crypto and data center interests.

Thankfully, she lost that primary to James Talarico, who seems headed to the Senate, but not before doing her damnedest to turn it into a brutal, divisive, race-based, identity politics shitfest.

She topped it off by giving Talarico the most tepid of endorsements and then refusing to campaign for him. She managed to leave him off her list of endorsed candidates last week before grudgingly saying she “endorsed ALL Democrats and yes that includes James Talarico”

She did find time to travel the country campaigning on behalf of AIPAC-backed candidates in multiple primaries, most egregiously for Wesley Bell against Cori Bush in Missouri, although she still played it cute and insisted, “but I didn’t endorse him.”

While she was busy not endorsing or campaigning for Talarico, she found time to celebrate convicted domestic violencer Chris Brown and apparently get publicly hammered in the process.

This will be my last post about Jasmine Crockett. She’s irrelevant, embarrassing, and not worth the time.

But what does matter is the internal conflict between two wings of the Democratic Party.

Progressives Battle Neo-Cons for the Future of the Democratic Party

I would put Crockett in the category of shiny object or attractive nuisance whose all-style, no-substance drew MSM attention like flies to honey, but the creeps at The Bulwark are a much more serious threat.

David Sirota has been blasting the neo-cons and their cowbird move to take over the Democratic Party at The Lever:

The trending conversations online have revolved around The Bulwark, a multimillion-dollar media juggernaut run by a crew of former GOP operatives and pundits — one of whom was the Mini Me to Corporate America’s Dr. Evil, some of whom cheered on the kleptocratic Bush administration and helped lie the country into the Iraq War, and many of whom participated in creating the backlash conditions for the Trump presidency they now purport to despise.

The Bulwark has made a mint off an audience of liberals who either forget their entire world every 15 minutes and/or simply do not care about all the damage these one-time Republicans previously created, as long as they are now — momentarily — against their erstwhile party.

But after the outlet participated in the GOP-aiding ruse of using its megaphone to try to focus the 2026 election discourse on Twitch streamer Hasan Piker, some are finally starting to ask an important set of questions: What exactly do these former Republicans want? And are they really the purported experts at winning elections that they claim to be?

…

The Bulwark wants a neoconservative takeover of the Democratic Party, after Trump successfully (and dishonestly) cast himself as an anti-neocon and threw them out of the GOP.

That’s not really speculation; they all but said it on the eve of the 2024 election.

Watch the clip. After The Bulwark’s founder Sarah Longwell excitedly cheers on then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ saber-rattling, her colleague Jonathan Last does a Dr. Evil mug to the camera and says, “Did the neocons just take over the Democratic Party?” — which elicits a hearty guffaw, before Longwell scoffs at Harris occasionally offering some economically populist rhetoric.

“Boo,” said Longwell, who, years later, said she preferred former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) over New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

After The Bulwark’s Longwell fired back, Sirota hammered home his case that it was the influence of neocons that cost Kamala Harris the 2024 election:

In the process, founder Sarah Longwell is now trying to rewrite the entire history of the 2024 election, pretending that neocons’ success in influencing the Democrats’ strategy in that contest had no real impact on the outcome — when in fact data suggest it helped deliver the presidency to Donald Trump.

“My problem with the DSA types who are after us is not their political ideology or their opinions,” said Longwell, amid the social media uproar over my essay at The Lever. “Their analysis doesn’t make any sense. There’s not a single piece of empirical data that the Liz Cheney stuff mattered (in 2024).”

This is false, according to empirical data released by Data For Progress just after the election. As Newsweek reported at the time:

The poll found that more independent voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania said they were ‘less enthusiastic’ to vote for Harris after she campaigned alongside Cheney…

In Pennsylvania, only 21 percent of independents said Harris campaigning with Cheney made them more enthusiastic to vote for Harris, while 28 percent said Cheney made them “less enthusiastic to vote for Harris.

In Michigan, 23 percent of independents said campaigning with Cheney made them more enthusiastic to vote for Harris, while 30 percent said they were less excited to vote for her after she rallied with Cheney.

Those net losses among independents matter in key swing states decided by very narrow margins.

Longwell, of course, has a motive in trying to now revise history and memory-hole the Harris-Cheney disaster that she helped forge: Longwell appeared on stage with Harris and Cheney at a key end-of-campaign event in Pennsylvania, where the Harris-Cheney alliance was alienating independent voters. The Bulwark celebrated and monetized that Harris-Cheney alliance, even as it damaged Democrats.

Tom Morello, guitarist for Rage Against the Machine, spoke for those who refused to vote for Harris because of her role in the Gaza genocide:

“I saw how the corporate Democrat sausage is made. It is worse than you think. And there is a righteous fury at the corporate-controlled, money-controlled electoral system we have that is absolutely illegitimate. And people cannot choke down voting for a candidate, I understand it, cannot choke down voting for a candidate that’s responsible for what happened in Gaza. And they just, they can’t do it.”

Criticism of Morello took the form of “crude identity politics” that immediately backfired:

Image

Luke Thomas tweeted in support of Morello and Sirota:

This is what the Tom Morello critics can’t seem to grasp. The idea is not that Trump isn’t an insane threat. And sure, generic Dem is better than anything MAGA. But unless Dems aggressively govern to directly address urgent society-wide problems, we are guaranteeing future calamity. I’m begging these people to think beyond stage one. Dems committed to more incrementalism rather than trying to pass M4A will spell our doom. You’re not fighting fascism holding the line on vote blue no matter who. You’re facilitating it.

I’m going to close this post out with an episode of The Left Hook featuring Sirota making the same arguments against the unholy alliance of identity politics hucksters, the Democratic Party establishment, and neocon “Never Trumpers” to cut progressives off at the knees in 2028 and where this will ultimately lead:

Key quotes regarding the Democrats throwing in the towel on opposition to the Ellison Hasbara Empire’s acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery:

Wajahat Ali: The old guard that has ensconced itself in the anus of the oligarchy, the people who have feathered their nest, the people who are corporate consultants,

the Democratic leaders who realize there’s a surging tide of young voters who want to replace them. And they’re like, no, you have to drag this power from my cold, dead hands. And they’re willing to sabotage the left. Progressives, the popular base of the party to stay in power. So we’ve given you some examples of Gavin Newsom.

My fear is this, is if we let this type of Democrat win in 2028, my fear, Dave, is they’re not going to change. They’re being paid by all the same people. You know that AI and crypto, the bubble’s going to burst. They’re going to get bailed out.

They’re not going to institute the reforms that people need because they’re paid by the same people who have effed everything up. So what we’re going to get is milquetoast reform. They’re going to be better than Republicans. They’re not going to have ice-killing citizens, okay? But structurally, when it comes to the economic engine that is raping people, that engine will just get a few cosmetic tweaks, but it’ll keep running for the oligarchy. And then in 2032, we’re going to have a Nazi economic populist Republican president.

David Sirota: Yeah, I mean, the way I put it is… Re-electing or electing another Democratic establishment type like Gavin Newsom is a delivery system for an even worse Donald Trump. It is a delivery system for even more authoritarianism. That you’re just going to run the whole cycle back that has been run from that 2008 to 2016.

It cannot be said enough. That if the Democrats regain power and do not deliver in a real way, in a way that we have not seen in our whole lifetimes, if they do not do that, the Democratic Party will serve in history as a delivery system for something that is worse than Donald Trump.

And everyone needs to be focused on this. This is honestly… I don’t care what issue, particular issue, is the issue that you tune into, climate change, AI, the economy, whatever it is. The point is, the central fear that should be on your mind is that a milquetoast not serious about delivering Democratic Party is a delivery system for the kind of authoritarianism That’s worse than Trump and that we have not really experienced here in this country in our lifetime. I’m going to borrow that. I like it. It keeps me up at night. Honestly, when I think about the future for my children, I am thinking, and I’m not trying to be overdramatic here, but you have these moments that create Future political eras. And I do think we’re in one of those moments that is going to actually create a new political era. Well, I should say it’s either going to make the current political era even worse, or we’re going to create an actually new political era. And the prospect of making things 10 times worse than this current era, where we just keep going in an authoritarian direction… Everything in history tells us that we should deeply fear that.

…

Wajahat Ali: “My fear is this, is if we let [Establishment/Corporate] Democrat win in 2028 they’re not gonna change…So what we’re gonna get is milquetoast reform,they’ll be better than Republicans, but structurally, when it comes to the economic engine that is r*ping people, that engine will just get a few cosmetic tweaks, and then in 2032 we’re gonna have a Nazi economic populist Republican president.”

I’ve been blackpilled on the Democrats for years, but hope is the thing with feathers, and I keep getting sucked in when I see people I used to consider hopelessly centrist, like Ali move to the left and openly call out the Dem establishment.

And I keep hoping maybe I can wake up some of the “Vote Blue No Matter Who” types in my circle.

I’ve been blackpilled on the Democrats for years, but hope is the thing with feathers, and I keep getting sucked in when I see people I used to consider hopelessly centrist, like Ali move to the left and openly call out the Dem establishment.

And I keep hoping maybe I can wake up some of the “Vote Blue No Matter Who” types in my circle.

But then I watched Wajahat Ali guest on Briahna Joy Gray’s Bad Faith.

Key quote:

Briahna Joy Gray: My goal is not to help the Democrats.

It once was. It once was. I once was the national press secretary for Bernie Sanders, who was running as the Democratic candidate for United States of America. And for me, all of the inconsistencies and hypocrisies that you are articulating now were evident in the way that the Democratic Party and the establishment media handled the Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign.

And in that campaign, which ended with the rise of the COVID pandemic, a massive job loss and concurrently massive 15 million people thrown off their health insurance. In that environment, seeing how little interest the Democratic Party had in backing a Medicare for All proposal that would have helped to save millions of Americans during a time of immense crisis when the public health implications demanded it.

Not to mention the choice to set all of these very popular COVID era policies to expire in a way that ultimately damned Joe Biden in many kind of easily articulable ways, including student debt, the student debt pause ending just before the 2024 election. During the Biden administration, there was an effort to strip the $15 minimum wage, the one promise Biden had made to Bernie when Bernie conceded out of the must-pass COVID relief bill. When I saw the bifurcation to build back better so they could kill all the public interest funding, when I saw the elected squad members’ unwillingness to use their leverage that they had because the margins in the House were so narrow to secure… Real wins for the left the way the Tea Party was willing to do two years later.

All of that to me made it clear the Democratic Party in my view is not a party that can be redeemed or reformed. So I cannot join you I’m saying that my efforts are to improve the Democratic Party because the Democratic Party has proven to me that it is not willing to be reformed or improved.

I don’t have an answer for Gray.

She’s right but I keep rooting for the slightly more progressive Democrats and pointlessly arguing with friends and family in the “Vote Blue” camp because I just can’t help myself.

Whatcha gonna do?

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