The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Sean Paul Kelley Page 1 of 2

'89-'93 BA History, Houston
'95-'07 Morgan Stanley, Associate Vice President
'99-'02 MS International Relations and Economic Development, Saint Mary's University
'07-'13 International Software Sales Manager, Singapore
'13-'16 MA, History, Thesis on Ancient Silk Road City of Merv, UTSA
Kelley lives in San Antonio, Texas.

What is Woke? Depends on Who You Are Asking

Simple question for you, what is woke?

To liberals woke equates with the advencement of and/or equality of people of color.

To the vast majority of conservatives–but not all–woke is a dogwhistle, hell, it’s probably a straight out whistle about the transgender ‘agenda.’

Although the media will probably never report how much influence all the transgender scaremongering had over the election–I imagine it had a material impact.

The entire transgeder issue is the ultimate in idenity politics failure.

Georgia Is Forging A Unique Path In The Post-Soviet Space

Earlier today I responded to a comment asking if Armenia and Georgia are next after the Ukraine.

I wrote: “Armenia has long been a Russian client state. They will remain one for the foreseeable future. Georgia is divided. When Georgia attacked Russian positions in South Ossetia in 2008 both Russian forces in and around South Ossetia and jointly with Abkhazian forces, Russia occupied Zugdidi, Gori, Poti and Senaki and the Abkhaz captured the Kodori Gorge. Through these actions Russia effectively split Georgia into three parts and there will be no Georgian admission into NATO. In fact, my buddy Mamuka who lives in Tbilisi, Georgia told me earlier this year, “we just have to make our peace with our giant neighbor to the north, like Mexico has made its peace with the USA.” He’s not wrong.”

Artin DerSimonian echoes, albeit much more eloquently and with more convincing evidence and arguments, exactly what I said: “While Georgia has condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine at international fora and has provided humanitarian aid to Kyiv, Tbilisi has also reopened direct flights with Russia, refused to adopt European sanctions (though generally restricting sanctions-busting trade) or supply arms to Ukraine, and increased its bilateral trade turnover. While some have been understanding of Georgia’s uniquely challenging position amid the war in Ukraine, others have been less forgiving and more circumspect of the underlying motivations of the ruling party’s actions.”

You can read his full article here. It is an outstanding piece of analysis, reminiscent of the arguments I had with Georgians when I visited the country in 2003. It was as clear as a window pane that Georgia must inevitably find an accomodation with its giant neighbor to the North, just as Mexico has done with the United States. Right or wrong, a giant neighbor next door is an ugly reality that must be faced honestly.

As DerSimonian writes, “If that initial strategy falls short of achieving our desired outcomes, then our next step ought to be adjusting our existing policies to fit the realities that develop beyond our borders without unnecessarily alienating those whom we seek to influence.”

It’s wonderful to see at least one nation in the post-Soviet space acting with some strategic and diplomatic maturity. That it is the Georgians is even better. I hope they prosper and solve their dreadful seperatist issues.

 

‘Extraordinary’ Corruption at RTX (formerly Raytheon)

A few weeks ago a friend of mine from Nicaragua visited. One aspect of American culture he admired was our lack of corruption.

“Oh dear, Marlon,” I replied. “We are a deeply corrupt nation. The difference between our two nations is that in Nicaragua you have both ‘corruption of the poor,’ such as bribes to police officers, bribes to health inspectors, home inspectors, low level bureaucrats and the like and ‘corruption of the rich’ which is usually institutionalized, a part of the legislative process, includes the corrupt purchase of large scale national rents collection, and is unambiguously unethical. Everyone, in Nicaragua, wets their beak, whereas only the rich and powerful in America participate.”

Today Responsible Statecraft offers up the epitome of American corruption:

“RTX (formerly Raytheon) has agreed to pay nearly $1 billion in fines, which is one of the highest figures ever for corruption in the arms sector. To incur these fines, RTX participated in price gouging on Pentagon contracts, bribing officials in Qatar, and sharing sensitive information with China.”

Price gouging? Of course. Bribery in Qatar? No surprise. But sharing sensitive information with China meets my definition of treason. Plus, a billion dollars in fines is much more than the cost of doing business. That’s a penalty that hurts the bottom line.

What makes me sickest is that this is a company that profits off of patriotism, and the demonization of foreign groups, like civilians in Yemen, Gaza and the Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia has rebuilt its defense industry to serve the Russian national interest, not corporate titans. If, heaven forbid, we get into an all out war, and cannot “win” (loosely defined) within six weeks, we’re toast. Our defense industry is simply not tooled up for that kind of capacity and we’ve undergone far too much de-industrialization to keep up with our peer competitors manufacturing capacity. That’s a sobering thought.

A Rare Balanced Update On The Russo-Ukrainian War

As one commenter noted, “Never thought I’d live in a world where I would be hyped for the Austrian army dropping a new video.”

You can watch it here, as I do not know how to embed it in Word Press.

By the way, if you want to understand Putin, you read Dostoevsky, Notes from the Underground, not Mein Kampf to suggest otherwise is an abdication of being intelligent.

Nota bene: Crime and Punishment is the best novel ever written. Just saying.

Nota bene duo: the Ukrainian drone attack at 5:05 on the Russian soldiers is terrifying.

Short Take: Reforming NATO

1. How many of you think the Atlantic Alliance (NATO) needs reformation in some way?

2. How many of you think it is just fine the way it is?

3. How many of you think it should just be abolished?

If you could please limit your answer in the comments to 1, 2 or 3 I would be very appreciative. There will be a long post for a full discussion of the issue soon. I want to get a sense of how everyone is thinking on this issue before I complete to essay.

The Deep State Is Scared

Say whatever you want about Trump, and I will agree. Got that? Okay, good.

But, when I saw that Dick Cheney–the fastigium of the Deep State–endorse Kamala Harris I was speechless.

I had wondered for a long time if Liz Cheney was Dick’s cat’s-paw, but now I’m just gobsmacked. The Deep State is truly scared of a Trump 2.0 and they have clearly mobilized every asset they have to make sure our managed reality stays properly managed. At least, managed according to Deep State preferences.

The media may spin this as some sort of last ditch attempt for the GOP to save itself from a populist monster, but that is clamjamfry of the worst kind. Twaddle. Horseapples. This is the Deep State in action and it hasn’t got a damn thing to do with the GOP.

And after Harris confirmed that Uncle Joe’s foreign policy will remain unchanged last night I’m convinced. Sure, she’ll be allowed to manage a few pet projects on the margins, but do not expect any adults to attend to her foreign policy.

I don’t necessarily dislike managed reality. I’ve seen direct reality and experienced a bit of it myself and it ain’t all its cracked up to be. I’d just like better managers.

PS–I’ve been very busy lately and have not forgotten to complete my Russia series. But writing a post on nuclear policy and the potential of nuclear war is distasteful to say the least. I appreciate your patience.

Short Take: Why We Have a Second Amendment in the USA

In the two hundred years before the American Civil War there were more than 250 slave revolts involving more than 50 slaves. Most involved between 50-150, but some we much larger.

So, Sean Paul, what does this have to do with the Second Amendment Right to Bear Arms?

Everything to do with slavery, and nothing to do with holding our government accountable. Seriously, do you honestly think a couple thousand Texans with AR-15s could out fight an armored brigade? GTFOH.

The Second Amendment was specifically designed so that white slave holders had enough firepower–not pitchforks–to put down any serious slave rebellion. Look what they did to Gabriel Prosser in 1800?  Bet you never heard of him, have ya?

Here is another fun fact: I have one BA, one MS, and an MA for good measure, and no teacher or professor in any of my classes ever discussed slave revolts in the United States. Yes, François-Dominique Toussaint Louverture was lionized. But he was Haitian revolting against the French. I have 20 years of primary, secondary and tertiary education and no one, not even once, ever mentioned a slave revolt in the United States. They talked about how well slaves were treated–which is balderdash–but never mentioned slave revolts. Maybe that’s because I was mostly educated in Texas, a kind of sort of part of the South, but really just home to a bunch of loudmouth assholes and dipshits who think they are better than everyone else in the United States because Texas was its own country for nine years. What’s that joke about bullshit and Texans? Texas begged to be let into the Union every chance it got.

Last but not least, the stench of slavery lingers on in the institution of the Senate in general, which is first and foremost the most undemocratic insitution in the United States, and in particular the filibuster, which to this day is used the vast majority of the time by Southern Senators to derail any real progress in the United States.

So, now you know.

Short Take: Symposium on the Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion

Over at Responsible Statecraft there is a symposium on the Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion and what it means down the road. I read all the entries and there is a general consensus that in the long run the incursion is more likely than not a strategic mistake. And then every single one of the commenters (except one) adds their “but” to the conversation. Obviosuly, I tend to see the world as John Mearsheimer does, but found the symposium a useful tool to gauge the thoughts of International Relations scholars across the spectrum. As I said, there is a general consensus. Give it a read, it’ll only cost you 15 minutes, tops.

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