'89-'93 BA History, Houston
'95-'07 Morgan Stanley, Associate Vice President
'99-'02 MS International Relations and Economic Development, Saint Mary's University
'07-'13 International Software Sales Manager, Singapore
'13-'16 MA, History, Thesis on Ancient Silk Road City of Merv, UTSA
Kelley lives in San Antonio, Texas.
Question: I’ve been presented an opportunity to go back to several places in China I visited in the past–namely Beijing, Xi’an, Yangshou and Shanghai. Probably three weeks.
I will also spend a week in South Korea with old friends, where I lived in 1993-94.
Is this a trip you, the readers of Ian’s site, would be interested in?
Putin recently said,“I agree in principle to a cease-fire.”
That’s a brilliant PR and propaganda coup. It also has a very pragmatic, realistic purpose. He said this, damn well knowing Zhelensky and the Ukrainians and the Brits and the US have so many hurdles to get through until they can achieve a cease-fire that what Putin has ultimately done is give the Russian army carte blanche to continue capturing key territory for as long as it takes for the West to get its act together or the Ukrainian army collapses, whichever comes first. My money is on a mid-summer collapse.
Nota bene: Putin is making Trump look like a piker in just about every encounter, except, he lets Trump keep his ‘face.’ Putin is puting on a master class.
Simple question for you, what is woke?
To liberals woke equates with the advencement of and/or equality of people of color.
To the vast majority of conservatives–but not all–woke is a dogwhistle, hell, it’s probably a straight out whistle about the transgender ‘agenda.’
Although the media will probably never report how much influence all the transgender scaremongering had over the election–I imagine it had a material impact.
The entire transgeder issue is the ultimate in idenity politics failure.
Earlier today I responded to a comment asking if Armenia and Georgia are next after the Ukraine.
I wrote: “Armenia has long been a Russian client state. They will remain one for the foreseeable future. Georgia is divided. When Georgia attacked Russian positions in South Ossetia in 2008 both Russian forces in and around South Ossetia and jointly with Abkhazian forces, Russia occupied Zugdidi, Gori, Poti and Senaki and the Abkhaz captured the Kodori Gorge. Through these actions Russia effectively split Georgia into three parts and there will be no Georgian admission into NATO. In fact, my buddy Mamuka who lives in Tbilisi, Georgia told me earlier this year, “we just have to make our peace with our giant neighbor to the north, like Mexico has made its peace with the USA.” He’s not wrong.”
Artin DerSimonian echoes, albeit much more eloquently and with more convincing evidence and arguments, exactly what I said: “While Georgia has condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine at international fora and has provided humanitarian aid to Kyiv, Tbilisi has also reopened direct flights with Russia, refused to adopt European sanctions (though generally restricting sanctions-busting trade) or supply arms to Ukraine, and increased its bilateral trade turnover. While some have been understanding of Georgia’s uniquely challenging position amid the war in Ukraine, others have been less forgiving and more circumspect of the underlying motivations of the ruling party’s actions.”
You can read his full article here. It is an outstanding piece of analysis, reminiscent of the arguments I had with Georgians when I visited the country in 2003. It was as clear as a window pane that Georgia must inevitably find an accomodation with its giant neighbor to the North, just as Mexico has done with the United States. Right or wrong, a giant neighbor next door is an ugly reality that must be faced honestly.
As DerSimonian writes, “If that initial strategy falls short of achieving our desired outcomes, then our next step ought to be adjusting our existing policies to fit the realities that develop beyond our borders without unnecessarily alienating those whom we seek to influence.”
It’s wonderful to see at least one nation in the post-Soviet space acting with some strategic and diplomatic maturity. That it is the Georgians is even better. I hope they prosper and solve their dreadful seperatist issues.
A few weeks ago a friend of mine from Nicaragua visited. One aspect of American culture he admired was our lack of corruption.
“Oh dear, Marlon,” I replied. “We are a deeply corrupt nation. The difference between our two nations is that in Nicaragua you have both ‘corruption of the poor,’ such as bribes to police officers, bribes to health inspectors, home inspectors, low level bureaucrats and the like and ‘corruption of the rich’ which is usually institutionalized, a part of the legislative process, includes the corrupt purchase of large scale national rents collection, and is unambiguously unethical. Everyone, in Nicaragua, wets their beak, whereas only the rich and powerful in America participate.”
Today Responsible Statecraft offers up the epitome of American corruption:
“RTX (formerly Raytheon) has agreed to pay nearly $1 billion in fines, which is one of the highest figures ever for corruption in the arms sector. To incur these fines, RTX participated in price gouging on Pentagon contracts, bribing officials in Qatar, and sharing sensitive information with China.”
Price gouging? Of course. Bribery in Qatar? No surprise. But sharing sensitive information with China meets my definition of treason. Plus, a billion dollars in fines is much more than the cost of doing business. That’s a penalty that hurts the bottom line.
What makes me sickest is that this is a company that profits off of patriotism, and the demonization of foreign groups, like civilians in Yemen, Gaza and the Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russia has rebuilt its defense industry to serve the Russian national interest, not corporate titans. If, heaven forbid, we get into an all out war, and cannot “win” (loosely defined) within six weeks, we’re toast. Our defense industry is simply not tooled up for that kind of capacity and we’ve undergone far too much de-industrialization to keep up with our peer competitors manufacturing capacity. That’s a sobering thought.
As one commenter noted, “Never thought I’d live in a world where I would be hyped for the Austrian army dropping a new video.”
You can watch it here, as I do not know how to embed it in Word Press.
By the way, if you want to understand Putin, you read Dostoevsky, Notes from the Underground, not Mein Kampf to suggest otherwise is an abdication of being intelligent.
Nota bene: Crime and Punishment is the best novel ever written. Just saying.
Nota bene duo: the Ukrainian drone attack at 5:05 on the Russian soldiers is terrifying.
1. How many of you think the Atlantic Alliance (NATO) needs reformation in some way?
2. How many of you think it is just fine the way it is?
3. How many of you think it should just be abolished?
If you could please limit your answer in the comments to 1, 2 or 3 I would be very appreciative. There will be a long post for a full discussion of the issue soon. I want to get a sense of how everyone is thinking on this issue before I complete to essay.
Say whatever you want about Trump, and I will agree. Got that? Okay, good.
But, when I saw that Dick Cheney–the fastigium of the Deep State–endorse Kamala Harris I was speechless.
I had wondered for a long time if Liz Cheney was Dick’s cat’s-paw, but now I’m just gobsmacked. The Deep State is truly scared of a Trump 2.0 and they have clearly mobilized every asset they have to make sure our managed reality stays properly managed. At least, managed according to Deep State preferences.
The media may spin this as some sort of last ditch attempt for the GOP to save itself from a populist monster, but that is clamjamfry of the worst kind. Twaddle. Horseapples. This is the Deep State in action and it hasn’t got a damn thing to do with the GOP.
And after Harris confirmed that Uncle Joe’s foreign policy will remain unchanged last night I’m convinced. Sure, she’ll be allowed to manage a few pet projects on the margins, but do not expect any adults to attend to her foreign policy.
I don’t necessarily dislike managed reality. I’ve seen direct reality and experienced a bit of it myself and it ain’t all its cracked up to be. I’d just like better managers.
PS–I’ve been very busy lately and have not forgotten to complete my Russia series. But writing a post on nuclear policy and the potential of nuclear war is distasteful to say the least. I appreciate your patience.
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