The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Democratic Party Page 4 of 7

Stating the Obvious: Obama wants to gut social security

Let me state the obvious, which we all know, one more time.

Obama intends to gut social security.  Republicans failed, it requires Democrats.  If Obama did not intend to gut social security he would not have set up the SS comission with the members it has.

Nancy Pelosi is onside with this (or she wouldn’t have forcefully scheduled a vote for the lame duck session.)

The Democrats most of us supported in 08 intend to gut Social Security.

Betrayal: the most bitter sauce.

But why shouldn’t they betray us?  No matter what they do, most folks say “well, the Republicans are worse”.  All it requires is that Democrats beat ordinary people with canes instead of chains.

They’re not the suckers.

Netroots Schizo

I had a good time in Vegas, so I didn’t spend a huge amount of time at NN, but I did spend enough time to take in the mood, and it was schizophrenic.  About half the people there are some combination of angry, disappointed and bitter with Democrats in general and Obama in particular.  This group sees him as not a heck of a lot better than George Bush, and in fact the Democrat who extended some of Bush’s worst policies, especially in  civil liberties.  This includes a lot of feminists (angry at what they see as betrayals on abortion), many Hispanics angry at the continued harsh enforcement of immigration laws, gays who feel Obama has betrayed clear promises on gay rights, anti-war activists saddened by escalation in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and a mishmash of folks who think health care reform was a dog’s breakfast and that the general way the economy and financial reform has been handled is a disgrace.

Then there are the folks who would characterize themselves, in general, as hard nosed pragmatists and “realists”. These range from the “Obama is the greatest liberal president since FDR” types, who think that the Obama is just wonderful and those progressives and liberals who don’t agree are simply delusional to those who feel that a lot of what he’s done has been watered down pap in general but that it’s certainly better than nothing and that those who are disappointed are unrealistic idealists who simply don’t understand the constraints Obama and Congressional Democrats are working under.

As regular readers know, I tend to the first camp, but I’m not going to go into why, I simply want to note that this divide is very real.  It’s occasioning a lot of anger on both sides.  The first sees the second as tribalistic sellouts, willing to excuse horrible things they would never excuse in Republicans so long as they are committed by Democrats and lacking an understanding of just how bad Democratic policy has been.  These are folks who tend to sneer at the “wins” as either illusionary or so underwhelming as to be a parody of the lesser evil argument.  (Reminding one inevitably of the t-shirts which say “Why Vote for the lesser evil. Cthulhu 2008.”)  To many of these folks the other side are, crudely put, sell-outs.

The second side is angry at what they parody as fairy tale thinking and deeply unrealistic.  “Obama couldn’t fix everything, but he’s better than the Republicans will be if they get back in power” is their mantra, ranging from “really, he’s wonderful and you’re insane for thinking otherwise” to “well, yes he sucks but he sucks less than what the Republicans will do when they get in power.”  Either way, they see the attacks from what they consider the “purists” as deeply damaging.  Democrats may or may not be a ton better than Republicans, but either way, they are better, and there is a moral case to be made for sucking it up one more time and working hard to elect, as the old progressive battle cry runs, “better Democrats”.  This is a two party state, with those parties having an unbreakable oligopoly on power.  Dissing Democrats just helps the even worse party win, at which point they will do even worse things.  So get over your problems, whether they are with economic policy or Obama’s continued shredding of fundamental civil liberties like Habeas Corpus, jump back into the trenches with your bowie knife or bayonet and fight for Democrats, not against them because by constantly bad mouthing Dems all you do is make it more likely that Republicans will win, and if they win, well, that will be baaaaddddd.  Very, very baaaaaddddd.

To put it crudely and unfairly to both sides, it’s the sell-outs without principles against the purists without realism.  And many of them do put it that way.  The netroots are split, in a very real way.  Life was easy when we could all agree that Bush was the worst American president in over a hundred years and all turn our guns on Republicans with the occasional shot at what we considered apostate Democrats like Lieberman.  The in-your-face discovery that people not much better ideologically than Lieberman run the Democratic party and determine its policies has split the tribe and turned brother against brother.  It’s not all-out war, not even close, but there is a disdain, bitterness and contempt between the two sides which is very real, and very dangerous.

This isn’t the Netroots of years past, it’s a Netroots torn by the question of what it means to be pragmatic: get what you can versus get what some feel the country actually needs or what they feel they were promised.  It is a Netroots torn by the question of bedrock values: of what is non-negotiable, and what isn’t non-negotiable.

It is, fundamentally, a Netroots which is learning that it isn’t one big happy family, that it does have internal disagreements which are serious and which can’t be papered over.

What that means in the short run is simply that the enthusiasm and support which has been there in the past for Democrats is no longer as strong as it was before.  2010 will see a lot of the Netroots at best tepidly pro-Democratic.  “Well, they are very slightly the lesser evil, so yeah, vote for them I guess”.  In the long-run, we’ll see.  It could be that a new consensus will coalesce, especially if Republicans win in 2010 and 2012.  It could be that this is the new normal.  Or it could be that the splits will continue to widen and become even more bitter, till the tribal identity is completely destroyed.

But last week, in Vegas, I found a Netroots that is more divided than I’ve ever seen it in its short existence.  I think, contrary to what the “realists” might say that this isn’t entirely bad. It is a real split, over real issues, and thrashing it out is worth the pain, because until we do, we won’t know what it really means to be a modern Netroots liberal or progressive: what our bedrock values are, and what we’re fighting for.

Democrats Face 200 million Republican War Chest Without the Strong Allies They Should Have

It seems, that in the wake of the Supreme Court decision in Citizens United, which allowed uncontrolled corporate money into elections, that (surprise!) Republicans have a huge warchest from outside actors like the Chamber of Commerce:

On the left hand side of the chart is a list of ten Republican aligned institutions, ranging from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to the Family Research Council. Next to it is a column listing the amount of money each group has pledged to spend by Election Day. A third column on the right details what those groups actually spent in 2008 on federal elections.

The number at the bottom delivers the key message. If their pledges are fulfilled, these ten groups will unleash more than $200 million in election-focused spending — roughly $37 million more than every single independent group spent on the 2008 presidential campaign combined. This time around, almost every single penny will be going to Republican candidates or causes.

So, how did this happen?

First, Democrats didn’t make an all out effort to torpedo either Roberts, or more reasonably, Alito.  With both on the Supreme Court, decisions like Citizens United were inevitable.

Second, when given a historic opportunity to break the power of the rich and corporations by not bailing them out, Democrats bailed them out.  They did not make shareholders get wiped out (as they deserved, they took the profits from housing bubble fraud, after all) and they did not let the bondholders take their losses.  Be very clear, this was never about saving the economy, the trillions of dollars used to bail out these corporations could have been loaned directly to consumers and businesses which needed loans.  In fact, at this point, it is entirely likely that bailouts made things worse, not better.

Third, Democrats did not push hard for the Employee Free Choice Act, an act which would have made union organizing much easier.  Union members vote for Democrats at much higher rates than non Union members (in particular, white male union members are pro-Democrat while as a group white males who aren’t union members vote Republican).  Unions not only provide financial resources for Democrats, they put feet on the ground for Democrats. Where unions are strong, Democrats tend to win. Where unions aren’t strong, Democrats tend to lose.

Fourth, Democrats abandoned their constituencies economically in order to bail out the financial sector.  They seem to have thought the financial sector would be loyal.  Of course, it isn’t, it will give money to whoever it thinks can win and from whom it’ll get the best deal.  Meanwhile unmarried women, Hispanics, African Americans and Youth, all core Demoratic groups, have high unemployment rates.  That means they are not motivated to vote or volunteer, they cannot give as much money as they could if they were doing well.  The money spent on bailing out banks and the rich, could have been used for a proper stimulus and proper loans which would have helped these groups.

Fifth, Democrats let ACORN be destroyed.  ACORN was framed, but Democrats threw it under the bus.  ACORN was a community organization which did huge voter drives which registered voters who were overwhelmingly likely to vote Democratic.  Again, a key liberal organization was simply abandoned.

Democrats made a play for corporate money and in so doing, they sold out constituencies which were actually loyal to them, and could actually be counted on.  Wall Street will never be reliably loyal to Democrats, neither will the very rich.  At best they will play Democrats and Republicans off against each other, but realistically, they prefer Republicans whenever Republicans can win.

You reap what you sow.  Sell out the interests of your core supporters, and they can’t help you as much as they could if you helped them.  When will Democratic politicians learn this lesson?

Democrats should have much stronger allies in 2010. But they preferred to play footsie with Wall Street and abandon their own constituencies.

How’s that Mid Term Looking ?

Some fairly depressing news for Dems (via Digby):

Hart and McInturff then looked at the change among the most-interested voters from the same survey in 2008. Although 2010 is a “down-shifting” election, from a high-turnout presidential year to a lower-turnout midterm year, one group was more interested in November than it was in 2008: those who had voted for Republican John McCain for president. And the groups that showed the largest decline in interest? Those who voted for Barack Obama — liberals, African-Americans, self-described Democrats, moderates, those living in either the Northeast or West, and younger voters 18 to 34 years of age. These are the “Holy Mackerel” numbers…

And yes, I fucking told everyone so. (Notice that that post was left to die, because back then serious people knew that the Republicans were dead for a generation so it wasn’t worthy of front page space.)

Why are people so stupid?

During a base election year the smart thing to do is to demotivate the base.  Really. Honest.

Assuming, of course, your main goal is to restore the rich’s wealth, push corporate profits to record highs and to continue war as usual.  And you really don’t care that much what happens in elections, because you personally will be taken care of by the wealthy whose interests you served.

So maybe it’s not Obama and Dems who are stupid.

Massive Small Business Insurance Rate Hikes In California

Twelve to twenty three percent increases are common, with increases as high as 76%. Needless to say, these increases are unsupportable by many businesses, who will drop coverage as a result.

Ok, excuse me, but is anyone surprised?  Democrats had a chance to do real  health care reform, and they balked, kludging together a mess which was guaranteed not to work.

Those of us with an actual track record of, y’know, getting policy consequences right, warned that Health Care Reform was an ineffective mess which wouldn’t control costs, but too many people wanted to be fooled, wanted to “hope”.

Hope’s all very nice, but it’s not a bloody plan, or a bloody policy, nor does it constitute good analysis.

The Lack of Netroots Enthusiasm for Progressive Candidates in Primaries

An acquaintance noted that compared to prior years, Netroots progressives have not gotten behind progressive challengers in primaries this year with any enthusiasm.

All I can say is that while various individuals may sound like good candidates, unfortunately, the netroots is depressed overall about the utility of primaries and elections, and that part which isn’t depressed is busy pushing Obama’s initiatives and defending Obama, not pushing candidates the Obama machine isn’t behind.

This is unfair to the good candidates, no doubt, but it is understandable.  Also, for most of a year, everyone’s energy was completely sucked into the never-ending health care debate, and many progressives regarded how it ended up as a demoralizing defeat, a defeat made worse by the fact that it was a betrayal from what many thought was “our own side”.

There’s a massive trust issue.  Many readers have a hard time believing in candidates any more, especially after the way so many “progressive heroes” have repeatedly caved in the last year.

Again, that’s probably unfair, but when even Dennis Kucinich can’t be counted on to stand up and vote the way he said he would, against a bill that he himself says is bad, and when every person who said “no public option means a vote against”, caved, well, sorry, there’s an enthusiasm gap on our side.

Betrayal has consequences. New candidates may not have betrayed anyone, but the people whose footsteps they’re following in did.

I am unsure how to fix this.  It seems virtually no one in DC on the Progressive side can be trusted to stand up to heavy pressure (or perhaps to mean what they say, not sure which it was).  Don’t know why, but it is the case.

And, sadly, it has consequences for good people.

Some folks are trying to fix this by saying “look at all the good things Obama and this Congress have done” or “really, the Health Care bill is still better than nothing”, but the hard core progressives, who are a significant chunk the people who give, who volunteer and who are willing to be massively enthusiastic, well, they aren’t buying it.  They were promised better on any number of issues (bank reform, healthcare, gay rights, abortion, etc…) and having been repeatedly betrayed (as they see it, and I agree) they find it hard to care.

So, honestly, if people want the progressive money and enthusiasm machine revved back up, I suggest they find a way to get some high profile wins, or they go down really visibly swinging on some issue in a way that doesn’t look like Kabuki.

A pity, as I say, but there it is.  Failure to come through on promises made makes people not trust future promises, even by new candidates.

Some might say that this is rational, others might say that it constitutes giving up and as such is the wrong thing to do.

But if progressive candidates—if progressive politicians in DC or who want to go to DC, want money and volunteer time and enthusiasm it’s really up to them to do something which makes netroots progressives believe in them again.

Taxing the Poor to Bail out the Rich

Value Added Tax (VAT) version:

When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Charlie Rose last October that a value-added tax was “on the table” as a possible way to solve the nation’s fiscal woes, the remark didn’t generate much interest. But as recent budget figures have put the depth of America’s problem into black and white, and with former Federal Reserve Chairman and White House adviser Paul Volcker nearly seconding Pelosi’s view recently, the idea of a VAT — already in use in nearly 160 countries — is gaining traction.

Trillions were spent bailout bankers, and every dollar spent fixing the mess since then is also effectively caused by the failure’s of the rich.

A VAT isn’t necessarily evil, but until progressive taxation is restored, capital gains are taxed at the same level as ordinary income, corporations are forced to pay taxes on their actual profits (rather than making billions and paying no taxes) and a financial transactions tax is implemented, why is another regressive tax (one that hits the poor instead of the rich) even being considered?

Oh, yeah, because this government exists to do unpopular things Republicans want to do while allowing Republicans to vote against them, as with HCR, essentially a 1994 Republican plan.

With Democrats like these, who needs Republicans?

Obama flexes his muscle

And Kucinich caves and agrees to vote on HCR.  Kucinich’s email is a piece of work:

I know I have to make a decision, not on the bill as I would like to see it, but the bill as it is. My criticisms of the legislation have been well reported. I do not retract them. I incorporate them in this statement. They still stand as legitimate and cautionary. I still have doubts about the bill. I do not think it is a first step toward anything I have supported in the past. This is not the bill I wanted to support, even as I continue efforts until the last minute to modify the bill.

Basically, he seems to have gotten nothing for his vote. Nothing.  And he can’t even find a good reason to vote for it.

Obama is proving, again, that he is very good at arm bending.  What I am hearing is that threats are being made to cut off all Democratic party support for many Reps who vote against the bill.  Some blue dogs will be allowed to vote against, but progressives as a group, and even some conservative Dems are expected to bite the bullet, vote for the bill, and suck up the consequences.

This is the moment when Obama flexes his muscle, proves he has control of the party, and that he will use that control against those who stand in his way.  It’s what he has to do, and progressives should take note, because this sort of hardball politics is what they’ll have to do if they ever get in power.

This is the second time Obama has really bent arms.  The first time was the bailout bill, before he was even president, which would not have passed without his intervention, an intervention which I have been told was extremely heavy handed.

It’s a pity that Obama is only good at strong arming Democrats, prefers to strong-arm progressives instead of conservative democrats, strong arms for conservative bills which are giveaways to corporate interests and appears completely incapable of playing any sort of hardball with Republicans, but this is the President that Democrats wanted.

(Full text of Kucinich’s letter after the jump)

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