Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Donald Trump Page 3 of 5

If Trump Wasn’t Right that DC Elites are Fuckups, Trump Wouldn’t Be President-elect

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On November 18, 2016

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There are three themes emerging since Trump won the election:

(1) His embrace of people with rather unpleasant views. That’s being covered plenty by others, so let’s concentrate on the other two.

(2) Loyalty and a disorganized transition. Some folks are beginning to understand how much loyalty matters to Trump. Many of his early appointments and advisors are easy to understand in those terms. Kushner, his son-in-law, was always there for him. Bannon was there during the nastiest of it (i.e., the tape fiasco). He didn’t back down, he didn’t cavil. He doubled down on supporting Trump. Sessions was loyal all the way through. Flynn was loyal all the way through, even when other retired generals suggested he shut it.

Ex-Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney once said, “You dances with them that brought you.” Trump is dancing with people who were loyal through the worst of it.

This is not unreasonable. He’s going to be under constant attack, and he needs people he can trust. I may not like the politics of some of these people, but they did prove they could be trusted to handle the absolute worst and not abandon Trump.

(3) All sorts of wailing about the notion that Trump and Putin talked before Trump talked to State and Defense, or how he met with Japanese PM Abe without going through State.

So?

This sort of stuff shows clearly that the usual suspects don’t get it. Trump ran as an actual outsider, despite his wealth. He said, “These people are fuckups. All the people who run the country are incompetent.”

So, people wailing that the Pentagon thinks Trump cozying up to Russia is wrong are missing the point. Trump ran on the premise that we should be friends with Russia. He proposed that people who think we should be enemies with Russia are wrong.

I agree with him, as it happens, but that’s irrelevant. He ran against the prevailing foreign policy consensus on Russia and he won.

Trump doesn’t think that State or Defense or whoever have been giving the right advice or doing the right thing. He thinks they have group-think, and this group-think’s conclusions are incorrect, and he ran against them.

Trump is doing what he said he would do. He has a mandate for being buddies with Putin. You may not like it (I do), but who gives a damn. He ran on it.

He ran on cutting DC elites out of decision-making, because they’ve run the country into the ground (yes, yes they have).

I make no claims that all of this mess isn’t partially incompetence. The team clearly did not have a good transition plan read (or much of one at all).

But hey, he fired the person who didn’t have a transition plan ready. That was Christie’s job, Christie did not do it. People are focusing on this as Kushner ousting Christie (because Christie prosecuted his father) and that’s part of it, but Kushner wouldn’t have been able to stop Trump giving him the job in the first place: He could only get rid of Christie after Christie completely screwed up the job.

There are a lot of issues about which I don’t agree with Trump, but whether you like it or not (and no, the popular vote count doesn’t change this) he’s actually running his transition in line with his campaign promises, in line with his mandate.

As for Kushner, we better hope he keeps winning his intra-Trump battles, because he’s one of the only powerful figures in the administration who doesn’t want to, say, deport Muslims.

Until people wrap their heads around why so many people (in the right places) voted for Trump, they aren’t going to be able to predict his moves or fight him properly.

Trump had a critique of how the country is run. His critique was essentially correct (I don’t agree with many of his solutions). He won on that critique, and so far he is doing what someone in his position should do: He is acting in accordance with what he said he’d do on the campaign trail.

What people are whining about, so far, are actual signs of integrity on Trump’s part. Integrity for a cause many disagree with, but integrity, nonetheless.

Like all candidates, even the best and most honest, Trump won’t fulfill all his promises. But he is acting in line with his meta-narrative: “DC is broken; those people don’t know how to run the country.”

Whether he can run the country is another matter, but it’s clear that DC elites can’t, because they’ve fucked it up for four decades, which culminated in a Trump presidency.

If Trump wasn’t right that DC elites are fuckups, Trump wouldn’t be President-elect.

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If Trump Is a Nazi

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On November 15, 2016

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Okay, Trump has appointed Bannon his chief strategist. Bannon is a straight up white supremacist. This is bad.

I am hearing screams of Nazi and fascism. I am hearing a lot of such screams.

Let’s cut to the chase. If Trump is a Nazi he will do very bad things. Let’s get specific.

Will he be as bad as a fairly standard nasty dictator: Pinochet?

  • Train dogs to rape women? Rape as a policy (more than it already is in the US, which, umm, it is.)
  • Mass graves?
  • Death squads striking at night either with government sanction or with government looking aside (this is, actually, the first thing to look for. If you start seeing it, GET OUT. GET OUT NOW.) But it happens in plenty of governments which aren’t Nazi or fascist.

Will he be worse?

  • Actual concentration camps (remember, Obama already locks up illegals in camps for long periods without meaningful trial.)

I’ve heard people say things like “false flag attacks,” but those happen under non-fascist regimes.

If you think Trump is a Nazi, I sincerely encourage you to set up markers of Nazi (or fascist)-dom, so you can track the success of your prediction.

And I sincerely suggest you make one of them the red line where you flee the goddamn country. As a friend of mine wrote the other day, his grandmother, when she fled Hitler in the 30s, was mocked by her relatives. Every single one of them died under Hitler.

I don’t think Trump is Hitler, though he’s got some damn unpleasant people in his administration.

But if he is, you’d better know when you’re going to cut and run, or, alternatively, pick up a gun.

I note, also, that if he isn’t, all the people screaming are doing everyone a great disservice, because when the real thing comes, having been falsely warned before, they won’t believe it.

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The Votes by Income Graph Does Not Prove Working Class Whites Didn’t Break for Trump

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On November 11, 2016

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So, this little graph is going around and causing people to say that it proves that working class whites did not break for Trump. It says no such thing.

The reasoning is simple. African Americans and Latinos broke hard for Clinton. Exit polls show Clinton got 88 percent of the African American vote, she received 65 percent of the Latino vote.

Poor Latinos and Blacks are a lot poorer than poor whites. That makes up the difference. Meanwhile, we know that the poorer the county, the more likely Trump was to win it, and we know he made his big break-through in the Rust Belt, where there are a lot of poor whites.

We also know Trump got approximately 72 percent vs. 23 percent of white males votes without a college degree, vs. 54 percent/39 percent for those with a college degree.

No, the white working class story, at least so far holds up and it holds up well.

The real story isn’t about working class white males, it is that Clinton lost white women, 43 percent to 53 percent. She lost who you’d expect her to lose, she didn’t win the people who were supposed to be “with her,” and won minorities by lower margins than Obama. She also lost white counties which were willing to go for Obama.

Update: This chart is particularly damning.

Shift In Voters by Income

Shift In Voters by Income

 

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Why Trump Won

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On November 9, 2016

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It’s 10:50pm, EST and, as of right now, it looks like Trump will probably win. The Senate and the House will be Republican as well. Let’s lay this out.

Trump sold hope, Clinton sold the status quo.

Trump’s motto was “Make America Great Again.” Clinton’s said “America’s Already Great.” That told anyone who wasn’t doing well that Clinton was not their candidate.

Trump made the election about what he would do, Clinton made it about her.

“Make America Great Again” vs. “I’m with her.” Clinton’s entire campaign was predicated on “I deserve this, this is about me, you should identify with me.” Trump’s campaign was about what he would do for America and Americans.

Running Against Russia Was Foolish

It isn’t the cold war any more. A majority of Americans actually want better relations with Russia, not worse.

The Recovery Never Touched a Lot of People

Clinton and Obama told those people they didn’t care about them. All this bullshit about the unemployment rate when the percentage of jobs available compared to the population never recovered, and when only one year of Obama’s reign saw general increases in income.

Trump Ran Against Iraq

Clinton did not. He won against his fellow Republicans on this issue. Hillary wasn’t just a vote for Iraq, she was the Democratic Senator who rounded up other Senators.

The Greens Did Not Make the Difference in Florida

The polling I’m showing right now has them at .7 percent. That is less than Trump’s  margin of victory. Johnson got 2.2 percent, but Libertarians seem to take evenly from Republicans and Democrats, with a slight nod to Republicans.

Third parties were not the difference. (Edited: 7:35 EST 09/11/16 to reflect Libertarian party being about an even split.)

This Has Been Coming for Years

Various people, myself included, were warning that a huge populist backlash was coming, and that in the US, it would probably be right wing. We were saying this as far back as the early 2000s. Others were warning of this in the 90s, or even the late 80s, because they saw the inequality data and knew where it was leading.

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Trump’s Logic Is Not Crazy

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On November 8, 2016

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trump-logic

Okay, so this chart has been going around (though I can’t find the original source). The problem is that people have been acting as if this chart is crazy.

Three parts are just fact:

The idea that “elections are rigged” is also true. It is more true for Republicans vs. Democrats, but it is also true that the DNC rigged the primaries against Bernie Sanders and for Clinton.

I do not believe that the system cannot be fixed democratically, but the point is at least arguable. It is also noticeable that Trump is actually trying to fix it democratically.

The problem with this chart is not that it is bollocks and lies, rather, it is that much of it is true, and that only Trump is willing to say the truth. If everyone is pretending everything is fine, and only the “crazy guy” is telling the truth, a lot of people will go with the “crazy guy.”

As for only Trump being able to fix it, well, he’s the guy running, who can win, who acknowledges these problems, isn’t he?

The only bits with which I don’t agree, other than getting Trump to “fix it,” are the “crack down on Muslims, deport millions.” BUT here’s the zinger: The US has already deported millions and cracked down on Muslims. Mosques and prominent and non-prominent Muslims are under constant surveillance, and millions of Hispanics were, in fact deported by both Bush and Obama. (Obama deported more, including per year.)

As for the wall—it’s just an extension of what has already been done in places. There are already hundreds of miles of wall.

This logic isn’t crazy at all, it’s more true than Clinton’s meta-message, and it doesn’t suggest doing anything that doesn’t make sense (after a fashion) or isn’t already being done, even if I don’t agree with all of it.

People who think this logic is damning need to get their heads out of their asses.

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Transcript of Peter Thiel’s Speech On Trump

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On November 1, 2016

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This isn’t a crazy speech.

To the people who are used to influencing our choice of leaders, to the wealthy people who give money and the commentators who give reasons why, it all seems like a bad dream. Donors don’t want to find out how and why we got here. They just want to move on. Come November 9th, they hope everyone else will go back to business as usual.

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Some Comments on the US Elections and that Which Is and Isn’t Said

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On October 12, 2016

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Donald TrumpSo, Trump said some very nasty things about women, which were caught on tape and released to the public.

There’s no question that Trump is a vile misogynist, and he has multiple outstanding sexual assault allegations against him.

It is also true, as Trump says, that Bill Clinton is a piece of work when it comes to women (no, spare me) and that Hillary has attacked those who accused him.

But what is more interesting to me is that a norm has been violated. Male politicians regularly molest women.

Please, don’t act surprised, everyone in the business knows this and so does anyyone outside it who wants to know. (Younger men get molested a lot too, the position of “page” is a dangerous job.)

But, as Marcy Wheeler has pointed out, this doesn’t usually get brought up. In the ’90s, Clinton got hit with it, and then it was mostly swept under the rug.

Now, someone has opened it up again.

This is what Trump has been, in his blustering way, warning about: Those who attack him on this issue will be attacked in turn. Especially Republicans, as he and his team view them as traitors–always worse than the “officially” avowed enemy.

Usually I despise having a “conversation,” but this is a conversation I welcome. Let’s get into it. Let’s talk about all those who are groping, molesting, assaulting, and out-and-out raping.

I do think it is worth pointing out that the Iraq war caused more rapes and assaults than anything Trump has ever done. Libya too. Oh, and “super-predator” legislation increasing the prison population would have caused a lot of rapes also.

It is worth looking at what people actually do. When someone is potentially in a position of power, it’s worth it to ask how many people they have, through their actions, hurt. This is a rounding error predicting the harm they might do. I know this is an intensely alienated way for most people to think, but being unable to think in those terms causes great suffering.

That said, one can certainly make the argument that Trump will be a worse President than Clinton (on some scale of awfulness). Remember, it isn’t necessary to pretend that Hillary is a good person for whom to vote, with the worst enemy being Iran, and the first priority being to overthrow Assad. One needs only to say either she’s the lesser evil or that fuck it, they’re both bad, and you’ll be voting in your own interest.

Finally, I note that, contrary to what you may have read, the Wikileaks releases from the DNC and Podesta are entirely accurate. In a normal election, they would be dominating the news-cycle. Clinton is a corporate shill and a warmonger who has caused immense suffering in her life.

These are not good people. Do not identify with either, nor with their courtiers. Those close to them have sold their souls for power, or its illusion. You would be selling something precious and receiving nothing close to that in return.

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It’s Clinton’s Election to Lose

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On July 22, 2016

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President-George-W.-Bush-Mission-Accomplished“He denounced “15 years of wars in the Middle East” — a rebuke of President George W. Bush — and pledged to help union members, coal miners and other low-wage Americans,” this traditionally Democrat-sounding politician continued, “These are the forgotten men and women of our country. People who work hard but no longer have a voice.”
the-new-yorker-who-is-donald-trumpIn another forum Donald Trump spoke, a bit incoherently, of the position where the United States foots 75 percent of NATO bills: “If we cannot be properly reimbursed for the tremendous cost of our military protecting other countries, and in many cases the countries I’m talking about are extremely rich. Then . . . I would be absolutely prepared to tell those countries, “Congratulations, you will be defending yourself.”
In NatSec think tanks all over the Beltway, heads were exploding. A national correspondent for The Atlantic said, “Trump is creating conditions for the dissolution of NATO, the demise of Europe, and rampant nuclear proliferation.” This from the scribe who claimed POTUS didn’t have the power to close GITMO. Poor Goldberg, always at the tail end of the main issue because he’s too busy brown-nosing to win the race.
I’ve said it before (and I think Trump’s on to it as well), NATO’s usefulness is analogous to that of the Concert of Europe in late 19th century. What began as a Triple Alliance between Great Britain, NATO has been creating the conditions for its own demise for about 25 years now. As I have repeatedly said on multiple occasions: The more nations adopt into the mutual defense alliance, the more the power of said alliance is diluted. It becomes a club that everyone has to be a member of, a sort of stepping stone into the ultimate club, the EU. Although at present the desire to join the EU is at question.
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The interviewer then brings up the question of non-monetary value, i.e., good will, with large monetary outlays. Trump is having none of this nasty, pocketed, traded, lost, reheated old chestnut that Think Tankers love to trot out: “We’re spending money, and if you’re talking about trade, we’re losing a tremendous amount of money, according to many stats, $800 billion a year on trade. So we are spending a fortune on [our] military in order to lose $800 billion.” I’ve got ocean-side property in New Mexico, folks, anyone interested?
undated-new-f-35c-marylandBut really, who is this Republican nominee? Where did he come from? Sure, he’s quite the bigot and sexist. But what male senator or Representative in Washington DC isn’t? Look at their legislation. The only thing they care more about than getting their hands into women’s pants via abortion legislation, is getting into people’s pocketbooks with new fees. Unimaginable new fees. Fees with names a woman with an advanced forensic accounting degree couldn’t decipher.
Why, someone has to be asking, the fetish with fees?
Easy: They raise revenue but don’t count as taxes.
Suckers. American taxpayers are flat-out suckers.
But this nominee has problems: His use of grotesque race-baiting, his lack of care for the tragedies faced daily in America when innocent brown and black people die at the hands of white cops who never see any form of punishment. Worse, departments across the country are hiring men and women eager to enforce compliance over their fellow citizens with predictably tragic results. Then there is the stomach-turning use of violence at political rallies. It’s not the violence, per se, that churns the gut. It’s the “Brown Shirt” techniques that are utilized, to be frank, that reek of outright fascism. Are the trains running on time? Oh, wait. . .
Does Donlad’ “Flannel-Moth-Larvae-Head” Trump’s message machine have anything to say about these issues? No, because he’s banking on the silence resonating with a group of voters people see every day but rarely take notice of. People like the following group:
Do they see the man or woman who got the raw deal like the plumber in Wisconsin who took out one too many 25 percent APR credit cards intent on paying for Junior’s cracked front tooth? He, too, had a cracked tooth when he was young and never fixed it. He was too poor. He also always felt it held him back from promotions, getting the right girl, the list was long. He was determined that his son have a better chance, even if he was leaving university soon with upwards of $50,000 in debt with a degree from a mid-level state school in English.
indexHow about the voter down Texas-way who had one hundred acres of land within the city limits of a moderately-sized city in the Texas Hill Country and lost it to imminent domain for letting it lay fallow after racking up so many citations for claiming it to be agricultural land with no farm animals. It wasn’t his fault a group of local hoodlums kept killing the animals he put on the land so as to keep it in good standing with the law. It’s also the voter I sneer at because he or she can’t or won’t move past the slogans; and yet at the same time, is a howling hypocrite, taking advantage of every government program available, going around the neighborhood or attending neighborhood meetings (yes, I’ve been to a few) “hoping to make some converts.”
chicago-is-facing-financial-calamity--and-rahm-emanuel-may-not-be-able-to-save-itFinally, there is the voter who understands every government he or she falls under, be it local, toll road, water district, school district, state or federal, is taking, taking, taking. As a result s/he’s pissed. If only I could just make them see how the Ultimate One-Percenter has swindled them, letting local government gut public service by selling off a crown jewel of revenue to a private company (conveniently owned by friends) to solve a short term budget hole. The company then trebles rates, pockets the rainy day fund set up for emergency maintenance, and now has a 1-800-telephone tree giving the customer nothing but bullshit excuses. If you don’t believe me, take a look at Chicago’s parking system. A cash-cow’s cash-cow!
151119_DX_Hillary-Myths.jpg.CROP.promo-mediumlargeNo, I won’t vote for him, because, while I doubt he’s as malevolent as Cruz or malignant as someone like Dick Cheney, he’s letting demons out of our collective closet that are best left in said closet. But, beware and be forewarned if you are a Democrat; especially if you’re certain Hillary is going to steam roll this guy.
You’ll have only yourself to blame if Trump wins.
Why?
It’s her election to lose.

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