The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Canadian Economy

Sweden v. Canada: Taxation and Inequality

Ok, so Stephen Gordon in MacLeans feels compelled to weigh in on taxes, to suggest that the Nordic countries just redistribute money from the bottom 99% to each other to maintain equality and so Canada should increase its GST and give money to the poor and middle classes.

It’s true that Nordic countries redistribute a lot more than Canada does, but let’s examine what that means (these are slightly wrong as I’m taking them from different, though recent years, but they are within a percent of correct):

The Social Security tax rate in Sweden is about 30%.  This is paid by the employer, if not self-employed.  This is either a tax on the employee, if one assumes that the employer would have paid the employee this if not taxed), or it is a 30% tax on all labor costs for a corporation, and for most corporations, labor is the largest cost.

Pension insurance costs another 7%.  It’s capped, though, but since Gordon is only dealing with the bottom 99% we can ignore that.

The standard VAT rate is 25%.

70% of workers are unionized.

The top tax rate is 57%.

Corporate tax (I’ll use Gordon’s figures) is 26.3%.

Canada: Social Security (Canada or Quebec Pension) is about 10%, between employer and employee contributions.  Remember, the combined SS and Pension insurance tax in Sweden is 37% of  income.

Harmonized GST, in most provinces runs 10 to 15%.  10 to 15% less than Sweden.

Corporate tax rates, both nominal and effective, are so close there’s no difference (unless, of course, you count that employer paid SS tax, in which case Sweden’s are significantly higher.)

Unionization in Canada is about 31%.  Less than half of Sweden’s rate.

Gordon thinks that the best way to deal with income inequality below the top 1% is to increase the GST (because it does less harm to growth than corporate taxes, he claims).  Note that the GST (a VAT) is regressive, while SS taxes (if they aren’t capped) are not regressive.  So Gordon prefers a regressive tax.

What GST rate would we need to increase to, if we held everything else equal but wanted to to have total taxation, as a percentage, equal to Sweden’s?  Canada’s total tax as a percentage of GDP is 32.2%.  Sweden 47.9%. Canada would need to bring in approximately 49% more taxes to match Sweden’s rate.  VAT taxes made up, as of 2009, approximately 11.5% of Canadian tax income.  To use the GST/HST  alone to increase taxes to the Swedish rate would require approximately quadrupling the VAT taxes.  So, in Ontario, the rate would be about 60%.

That’s not happening.

Gordon’s article only deals with income inequality in the bottom 99%, but he notes that you can’t tax the top 1% to pay for transfers, they don’t actually have enough money.  I’ll just note that you don’t tax the richest (really, the top .1%) at massively progressive rates to get money from them, you tax them so they don’t have money to buy up the system, including both politicians and the market.  The US is the paradigmatic case of what happens to your political system when you allow the rich to get too rich, but the same process is happening in Canada.  (You also don’t allow a few media corporations to own almost all media, for the same reason.)

Finally, let’s just cut the bullshit. High progressive tax rates do not decrease growth.  There is no unequivocal empirical evidence that they do.  The best growth in the developed world happened in the 50s and 60s, when the developed world had much higher tax rates on both individuals and corporations.  Much, much higher rates, as in 90% on top income earners (pdf – pg. 17) in many cases, and corporate tax rates were much higher as well.

Correlation may not be causation, but causation w/o correlation is extraordinarily rare.

Corporations invest and hire more people when they have a reasonable expectation of more demand for their products and services.  If there is not enough demand, it does not matter if they have money to spend, they will not spend it.  This isn’t even economics, this is business 101.  The poorer someone is, the more they consume as a percentage of their income.  An affluent middle class, heck a working class that has disposable income, creates more demand than rich people do.

Demand alone is not enough, if there are supply bottlenecks, but the supply bottlenecks we are facing right now are not in money. Corporations have record amounts of money and are not spending it.  When individuals, whether corporations or people, won’t spend, it is the government’s JOB to take the money and spend it, and spend it in a way that will get rid of whatever supply bottlenecks exist.

They must also make sure that an actual free market exists and that no one has pricing power. It does no good to redistribute money if all that will happen is that companies with pricing power will just raise prices and take the money away, meaning no real new demand is created, and thus no new jobs and new real economic activity, whatever the nominal numbers show.

On edit: further investigation shows that almost all of the VAT is returned to low income earners.  This means the VAT functions as a luxury tax, starting about about the middle middle class.  Luxury taxes are on the best taxes, and by luxuries we mean “stuff that’s imported, and especially imported stuff ordinary people can’t afford anyway.”

Yes, Canada has Dutch Disease

Or at least, the Bank of Canada thinks so, though they’ll never call it by that name:

Nonetheless, Canada’s current account was in surplus for many years before the crisis, and is now expected to remain in deficit indefinitely.

The main reason? A currency at parity with the U.S. dollar means Canadian exports are at a disadvantage and will be for some time. Indeed, until companies do more to improve their efficiency to offset the effects of the higher loonie, they’ll remain at a competitive disadvantage. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has highlighted this point for more than a year.

No, really, the oil sector is killing non-oil jobs.  And the Conservatives are bringing in foreign guest-workers to do oil jobs.

This is how the prosperity of a country can be destroyed.

Observations on Canadian NDP leader Mulcair and the politics of class

Last weekend, the federal New Democratic Party (NDP) elected a new leader: Thomas Mulcair, an MP from Quebec, who was a minister in the provincial Liberal government there, before he resigned rather than open a park for development.

Mulcair was the front runner, and his victory was hardly a surprise.  Many NDPers thought that he would move to the center and would abandon left-wing principles in pursuit of power, and a number of key members of the prior leader’s team have left.

I had my doubts, but Mulcair has gone a long way to assuage them in just a week.  First, this, in his first day in Parliament:

Speaking to reporters afterward, he laid out his concerns for the state of the Canadian economy and accused the federal government of neglecting workers as it promotes the extraction of natural resources, mainly in Western Canada.

“That’s driven up the value of the Canadian dollar, made it more difficult to export our own goods. We’re killing our manufacturing sector,” he said. “The way the Conservatives are acting has had a devastating impact on good jobs with pensions.”

There was a lot of whining from Alberta about this statement, but it’s just a fact.  The classic Canadian economy was a mixed one, which combined resource extraction and manufacturing.  When manufacturing does well, resources generally don’t.  When resources do, manufacturing doesn’t.  In the old model this was considered a strength, since it meant that part of the economy was doing well, no matter what resource prices were.  And when one sector was up, it was meant to subsidize the other sector.

Resource booms always end.  Every single one.  The oil boom will end, the question is when.  If Canada doesn’t have a manufacturing sector left when the boom ends, we will become a basket case South American country.  And Alberta will become the new Maritimes (remember, the Maritimes was originally a resource boom area.)

Politically speaking, this is also smart, because the NDP just isn’t going to get a lot of MPS out of Alberta in specific or the Prairies in general.  If attacking the tar sands, and calling for Canada to add value to resources before shipping them out of the country costs votes there, so be it.  The battleground is not Alberta.  Alberta went all in with the Conservatives, and they have to live with that.  There’s no point in pandering to Albertans, it would take a huge shift in voting to gain many more seats.

The places in play are the Maritimes and Ontario, and it is there that the election will be won or lost.  It is Ontario which has been losing its manufacturing due to the high dollar, and the Maritimes has been treated shoddily by the Conservatives as well.  So on both politics and economics Mulcair’s stance is a good one, which appeals to the regions where the NDP can make gains and pisses of people who would never vote NDP anyway.

Then there was this, yesterday, when the Tory austerity budget was unveiled:

“The Conservatives have caused the problem by gutting the fiscal capacity of the government,” Thomas Mulcair, the newly crowned NDP leader, said Wednesday.

“Now they’re saying, oh, gee whiz, no more fiscal capacity in the government, we know what we’ll do, we’ll start cutting the services of the government.”

Oh my, pointing out the obvious.  Conservative tax cuts and reckless spending caused the defict.  But tax cuts for rich people are sacrosanct, so old folks will have to wait till 67 to retire.

And this:

“Everything indicates the Conservative budget will be synonymous with cutbacks and job losses. A few months ago, the Prime Minister promised textually, in this House, that he would not touch pensions, would not cut health transfers to the provinces, would not touch services to the population?” Mr. Mulcair said. “Will the Prime Minister live up to his word, or will he break his promise?”

And then, Harper cut pensions and cut health transfer to the provinces.

Ouch.  That had to smart.

Yeah, I’m liking Mulcair.

One of the things which has distressed me most about the West is that no one on the left has really been willing to hammer the politics of class.  Mulcair, who has also hit inequality, shows some signs of doing so.  It is conventional wisdom that tax increases won’t fly, but the polling data doesn’t support that, at least not if you want to tax the rich and make that clear.  Heck, if even Globe and Mail readers (the primary business newspaper in Canada) want tax increases and more spending, I think we can conclude that it’ll fly (yes, I’m aware of the limitations of that particular poll).  But even the upper middle and lower upper class think that the true rich should pay their share.  Coming out of Quebec, which is somewhat insulated from the political culture of the rest of North America, Mulcair seems willing to play class politics, and seems to know how to do so.

So far, so good.  And as for the budget, Prime Minister Harper isn’t going to get the cuts he wants from the public service without causing great pain.  Nor is cutting other forms of spending going to help the economy.  Harper better get down on his knees and pray to God that there isn’t a major downturn in China, because he’s betting everything on resource prices.  If they crumble, the Canadian economy will go with them.  And so will Harper’s job.

This is opposition politics 101: whatever the government does, you oppose. If Harper’s bet on the resource economy works, then the Conservatives will get another term.  If it doesn’t, the NDP needs to be seen as the party which opposed his policies.  Mulcair is positioning them for that, and doing so in a way which allow him, if he gets in power, to put in place policies which will reward the constituencies he needs to win—everyone not attached to the oil teat.

Meanwhile In Canada the Stimulus Has Already Failed

So yeah, more jobs have already been lost that the 40 billion stimulus bill was expected to create by rather optimistic estimates.  For reference for Americans, the general rule is to multiple everything by 10, so an equivalent stimulus in the States would have been 400 billion.  In other words, the Canadian stimulus was about half Obama’s stimulus.

Ouch.

Ontario in particular is in a world of hurt, because Southern Ontario, Canada’s manufacturing heartland, has been in recession for years.  First it was because of the high Canadian dollar, then it was because of the Big 3 auto companies woes, but either way it’s turning into an industrial wasteland.  The Harper government has no real idea what to do about it (hint: small motors are good for micro generation, lads.  Get on it.)  Nor has the Ontario government been all that useful, though to be fair they don’t have 40 billion to throw at ths solution (about 20 billion of which should have gone to Ontario, since Ontario is taking about half the job losses.)

The US isn’t losing jobs at quite the same rate, but the fate of the American stimulus bill will be essentially identical, since just like the Canadian one it’s too small and put together very badly, because neither Harper nor Obama believe in liberal economic policies in any significant fashion.

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