The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Development Economics

The Credit Addicts Dilemma: Why the US is hemorrhaging good manufacturing jobs

Manufacturing employment from 39

Manufacturing employment from 39

Fun graph, eh?

This is your manufacturing economy on globalization.  Bear in mind that these numbers are absolute numbers, they don’t reflect the fact that the US population has grown significantly.

According to Mike Lux:

a high level Obama administration economic adviser is quoted as saying that America’s export future resides in exporting “consulting and legal services, software, movies, and medicine.”

Whistling past the graveyard would be the kind way to characterize that statement.  Typical Summers/Geithner “brilliance” might be the less kind way of putting it.

US manufacturing was never going to stay as high as it was, relative to the size of the population, after World War II.  The majority of the world’s manufacturing capacity had just been bombed into rubble, after all.  A relative decline was always to be expected.

An absolute decline, however, is quite another matter, so let’s do a 30 second seminar on international trade and development.

No country other than a city state has ever industrialized except behind trade barriers.  None.  There are no exceptions.  Mercantalism is how states industrialize.  The trade barriers can be classic tariffs (like the US used), they can be direct subsidies, they can be through interest rate policy or  they can be through making your currency cheaper than it otherwise would be.

For good chunks of the 2000’s, the Chinese government spent about 10% of their entire GDP keeping the Yuan undervalued.  Other countries, like Japan and Korea also worked hard to keep their currencies undervalued (or the US dollar propped up, depending on how you want to look at it.)  This made their goods more competitive than they would have been otherwise and the direct result was the loss of US manufacturing jobs.  (One might also point out that this doesn’t qualify under any definition as “free” trade).

This isn’t the entire picture, just dropping the dollar won’t fix the problem, because if that happens, the US gets creamed on resource costs (read: OIL).  This means the US is in a policy bind.  Drop the dollar and get slaughtered by resource prices.  Keep the dollar high, and lose jobs.

This isn’t just a policy bind, it’s co-dependency, in the worst sense, like when a drug dealer needs a customer’s cash and the customer needs his fix.  Americans got something in exchange for this: they got cheap consumer goods, and funding for their overspending.  At some points during the 00’s the American savings rate was negative!

In exchange manufacturing and other jobs were moved directly overseas.  Off-shoring went to China, outsourcing (of legal, administrative, call center and whatnot) went to India, Canada and Ireland (because they all have large numbers of English speakers).

Breaking this policy bind is simple enough: first you have to break US dependence on oil, then you can tell the countries which are selling you drugs (which you desperately want and need, don’t blame them for your addiction to cheap credit and consumer goods) where to go.  Then you go through a very unpleasant withdrawal period, which as any ex-addict can tell you, is hell on earth.

But the status quo isn’t so hot either, is it?

Want your manufacturing jobs back?  Get off oil, then you can get off easy foreign credit and cheap consumer goods.  Then you can have them back.  And maybe once they’re back we’ll be able to buy an appliance which isn’t so lousy that it’s expected to wear out in 5 years max and be thrown to the curb.

One can dream.

How Owning Genetic Materials Drives Farmers Into Bankruptcy and Suicide

A fascinating interview with Vandana Shiva by Lohan discusses how companies like Monsanto, through their ownership of agricultural seeds, drove Indian farmers into bankruptcy and caused mass suicides. In a decade, about 200,000 farmers have commited suicide in India.  Why?

“In 1998, the World Bank’s structural-adjustment policies forced India to open up its seed sector to global corporations like Cargill, Monsanto and Syngenta,” Shiva wrote. “The global corporations changed the input economy overnight. Farm-saved seeds were replaced by corporate seeds, which need fertilizers and pesticides and cannot be saved. …

When Monsanto’s Bt cotton was introduced, the seed costs jumped from 7 rupees per kilo to 17,000 rupees per kilo. Our survey shows a thirteenfold increase in pesticide use in cotton in Vidharbha. Meantime, the $4 billion subsidy given to U.S. agribusiness for cotton has led to dumping and depression of international prices.

Squeezed between high costs and negative incomes, farmers commit suicide when their land is being appropriated by the money lenders who are the agents of the agrichemical and seed corporations. The suicides are thus a direct result of industrial globalized agriculture and corporate monopoly on seeds.

Rising prices for inputs, lower prices for the crops.  Simple enough, really.

The first suicide that we studied took place in Warrangal in Andhra Pradesh in 1997. This region is a rain-fed dry region and used to grow dry land crops such as millets, pigeon pea etc. In 1997, the seed corporations converted the region from biodiverse agriculture to monocultures of cotton hybrid. The farmers were not told they would need irrigation. They were not told that they would need fertilizers and pesticides. They were not told they could not save the seeds. The cotton seeds were sold as “White Gold,” with a false promise that farmers would become millionaires. Instead, the farmers landed in severe unpayable debt. This is how the suicides began.

Likewise these crops require a lot more water and that has led to a severe drawdown of aquifers.

VS: India is a land of varied climates, from rainforests to deserts. Seventy percent of Indian farming is rain-fed (dependent on rain not irrigation). Introducing inappropriate crops and cropping patterns has aggravated the water crisis and precipitated more frequent crop failure. Ecological agriculture needs 10 times less water than chemical farming. Green Revolution varieties, hybrids and GM crops are all bred for irrigation. On the one hand, this puts pressure on farmers in low-rainfall zones to drill tube wells, which fail — on the other hand, it leads to more frequent crop failure.

To summarize: first world subsidies on agriculture lead to first world prices that are artificially low, which leads to dumping, which reduces the price of the crops.  Something Shiva doesn’t mention is that each time a third world country moves to cash crops, that too depresses the prices as there just aren’t that many cash crops.  Having to buy seeds every year, having to buy pesticides and fertilizers and having to irrigate all increase the cost of farming significantly, and also cause drawdown of aquifers.  Once those aquifers are gone (and they are being drawn down faster than the water is being replaced) the areas in question won’t be able to grow any meaningful crops at all.

Patenting life forms is inherently problematic.  At the current time the law is that if a genetically modified seed drifts onto your land, and interbreeds with your crops, the company that owned the seed now owns all of your seeds, which you must destroy if it insists.  So once GMO seeds are introduced into an area, it becomes difficult to impossible for farmers not to use them.

The destruction of biodiversity in crops, which started with the Green Revolution, has alikewise moved into turbo-seed which have to be bought every year, which are genetically engineered, don’t change.  Monoculture crops are very vulnerable to disease and pests, but worse than that as older species are lost, we lose their genetic heritage, which could have much of value.  They may have medicinal uses we don’t know about, may have genetic features that make them resistant to specific pests or disease, or better for certain environmental conditions, and so on.  Once they’re gone, they’re gone for good.

In any case, the world needs less monoculture agriculture and more ecological agriculture.  Not just because it is more sustainable and the world is on track to create massive dust bowls in the US, China and India due to overuse of water, but because grain based diets are inherently less healthy than more varied vegetable diets.  A huge amount of the current pandemic of degenerative diseases in the 1st world, which is at its worst in the US, can be laid at the feet of the the Standard American Diet (SAD), which consists of far too much sugar, starch, grains and corn based foods denatured of natural nutrients.  This diet has contributed heavily to an epidemic of obesity, diabetes, heart disease and cancer.  Likewise, what was once known as “adult onset diabetes” is now common in childhood, and obesity.

The real cause of the first world’s crisis in health care costs is that people are just sicker than they used to be, not just when they get old, but at every stage of their life.  And that is largely a reflection of how we now eat, combined with lack of regular exercise.  As nations famed for their good health adopt a more American diet (like the French) the incidence of obesity and chronic degenerative disease immediately rises.

It is thus in the first world’s interests to stop with the heavy subsidization of grain and corn, to allow third world nations to protect their farm economies from foreign competition and to move, themselves, to an agriculture which produces more highly nutrient dense vegetables and less grains and corn.  This will pay back, in the long run, with lower healthcare costs and a healthier, more producitve population.

And as a side benefit, there will be a lot less farmer suicides.

Page 5 of 5

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén