So, many people have noticed there’s been a lot of inflation. Timber is up about three times. There is an international chip shortage (thank you Crypto). The price of everyday goods has risen significantly.
First: No, this isn’t a precursor to hyperinflation in core countries.
Second: Yes, higher inflation is here to stay, beyond what can be concealed by statistical tricks like hedonics. (Assuming the Fed doesn’t hammer the economy into the ground, which I don’t think they will.)
The temporary effect is pandemic driven. A lot of capacity was shuttered during the pandemic, and it will take time for it to ramp up. Once it’s back up, prices will stabilize.
The permanent effect is driven by increased consolidation. A lot of small and medium businesses went out of business during the pandemic, and they aren’t all coming back. They were replaced by larger businesses. Those larger businesses (who, for example, bought up a lot of rental housing) will use their market power to raise prices and they will keep raising prices as long as they have little effective competition (a.k.a., as long as they are oligopolies). In industries like rental properties, they will keep properties off the market to increase prices, because capital is cheap and they can afford to do so.
Right now, this is being mitigated by pandemic government spending, like the additional $300/week for UI benefits. It is also being mitigated, on the low end, by the fact that a decent chunk of the bottom-end died. (Line cooks had the highest pandemic fatality rate of any job class.)
Remember that what matters is not what inflation is, but whether your wages are rising faster than your expenses. If companies are forced to raise wages more than they raise prices, you are better off.
This is why Republican governors removing UI benefits are hurting people. They’ll still get price inflation, without wage inflation, leading to people who are, overall, worse off.
The test here is if Biden, through his fiscal package, can pour money to the poor fast enough to keep the labor market tight. If he does, people’s wages will rise because businesses will have to raise wages to get workers.
If Biden pulls this off, he gets re-elected. He might even win the 2022 midterms. If he doesn’t, he becomes a lame duck President in 2022.
So, if anyone from the administration or Democrats in Congress are reading this, remember: Re-election and keeping power requires flooding poor people with money and good paying jobs like the jobs refitting buildings in the stimulus. Do that, and wage inflation will out-pace price inflation; people will feel great, and you and Biden will soar to re-election and do so with a larger majority which will allow you to do even more — win more seats and create a semi-permanent majority.
It really is that simple and that hard.
For readers, there is still a boom coming, there will be a period where the market is tight (there is already, as I predicted). Get your vaccines, and if you need a job, get one while the getting is good. Consider trading up: See if you can get a better paying job than the one you have right now.
There is no guarantee Biden and Congress won’t fuck this up and let this turn into price inflation higher than wage inflation, so make while the making is good.
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