Sigh.
It’s not over until it’s over, but something needs to change fast if it isn’t to be Trump v. Clinton.
I know polls show Clinton beating Trump, and demographics are a powerful thing, but I think Trump’s campaign is almost tailor-made to defeat an elitist associated with practically every economic and political failure of the past 30 years.
We shall see.
So, the protestors who stopped Trump’s Chicago rally were mostly Bernie supporters.
The wishy-right like Mitt Romney, and the neo-Liberal right (Clinton) are worthless against someone like Trump because they represent the status quo, which has been discredited.
And because they won’t actually fight.
I don’t know if Trump will win the election, but I do know that if he doesn’t, he’s only the first to try. As the US economy gets worse and worse for ordinary people, which it will under Hillary Clinton (she is neo-liberal to the core), the followers available will soar and those available to status quo pols will dwindle.
But they will keep increasing–for candidates like Bernie as well.
Only someone who has a platform and personae which is a radical break from politics as usual can compete for these clusters of supporters. And yes, there is some overlap, but it is not complete (are unhappy Latinos going to vote for Trump?).
When I was a boy, in 1970s Vancouver, I told my father “I don’t see much racism.”
My father, a child of the Great Depression said, “Wait till times get bad. You’ll see plenty.”
I see plenty. Most countries are going to have to choose between someone like Trump or someone like Bernie; and that choice will keep being presented till they make the fateful choice.
Once it is made, in many cases, there will be no going back.
You can have your hate and change; or you can have your change with someone like Sanders or Corbyn, who at least makes a real try to help most people.
So far Britain is failing this test. Let’s see how the US goes.
And, again, if you get Clinton, all you’ve done is push back the day of reckoning, and made it worse.
This WILL happen. It is close to inevitable now, because our elites cannot and will not either create a fair economy which works for enough people; nor can they manage climate change.
This only a hair from social physics at this point.
You were warned. And warned. And warned. You were offered people like Dean and Edwards and so on. You refused to take the road away from hell.
Now reap what was sowed.
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Most of Detroit hasn’t reported in and Detroit leans heavily Clinton. Even so, this is amazing; polls were showing Bernie down 20 percent to Clinton.
I’m assuming this is based on trade. “Free” trade has destroyed Michigan.
As for Trump, well, no surprise.
Update: Note that a win here only keeps Bernie in the running. He needs to start defeating Clinton by significant margins in order to win. Still, I couldn’t see how Bernie could win if he couldn’t win a state like Michigan, which is almost tailor-made for his message, so this is good news. A couple polls off by 20 percent in his favor in big states and Bernie could still pull it out.
Second Update: Looks like a win for Bernie in Michigan, but note that Clinton won Mississippi with 86 percent. In other words, she won the most delegates today. Bernie MUST start knocking some out of the park soon.
African Americans voted 30 percent for Sanders–that’s his best showing yet.
19- 30-year olds showed up as much as retirees. Can’t remember the last time that happened.
This sort of thing is why feminists keep losing effective abortion access.
And by “this sort of thing” I mean preferring the “identity” candidate over the one whose policies are actually good for the group in question.
“She is one of us, so she must be better for us.”
No.
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Are they trying to convince people to vote for him?
So, yes, a letter signed by NeoCons talking about what a disaster Trump would be.
I mean, it’s grand that they are against torture now, and I prefer the stance that demonizing Muslims is bad, ‘kay, but these are the the people who lied the US into the Iraq war and caused the rise of ISIL (among other things).
Donald Trump calls the Iraq War a lie-fueled fiasco, admires Vladimir Putin and says he would be a “neutral” arbiter between Israel and the Palestinians.
So—cooling the conflicts between the US and Russia, acknowledging the truth about Iraq, and not taking Israel’s side.
Trump mixes up ideological certainties for elites. He’s not consistent with any elite consensus, he’s all over the place. Boot Muslims out, but be neutral between Israel and Palestinians?
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This is nativism. America is for Americans, and Americans aren’t Muslim. The constitution may disagree, but nativist sentiment agrees.
The Neocons bewail Trump saying he’d charge Japan for protection (which I disagree with), and while that’s inconsistent with elite ideology, it is consistent with nativism. Japan’s problems with its neighbours, including North Korea, are not America’s problems. Why should America protect them, or anyone else, if America isn’t receiving anything for it?
(As Japan, I’d negotiate based on use of the Okinawa base, and so on. Japan actually gives the US a lot already.)
Trump is not inconsistent. He is a populist nativist, and his policies track that pretty well. Because he is right-wing, he wants lower taxes on “good rich” (but not hedge funds), but populism has always been able to be both right- and left-wing.
The other populist in the race is Sanders. Note that while Sanders believes in a road to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and certainly wouldn’t be kicking large numbers out, Sanders voted against the 2007 immigration bill because it would have expanded guest-workers by 200K.
Current Americans, citizens or not, come first for Sanders. He’s not a nativist, but he is a populist.
Hilary won Super Tuesday in 2008.
Bernie’s best states are still to come. The worst sign is the loss of Massachusetts, but the race is not over yet.
I know this will be an unpopular opinion, but I’ve always felt that Warren was overrated, and I feel that her refusal to endorse a candidate vindicates that view. She may have stayed viable with Clinton as a result, but she will get only scraps on financial reform from Clinton.
The constant refusal of people and groups (like unions endorsing Clinton) to get behind and work for candidates who would actually act on their behalf is one of the reasons that one can often only shrug at what is happening in America. Clearly, based on actions, not words, this is what too many Americans want.
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Feel free to use this as a thread to discuss the results. Remember that Sanders polls best in blue states, not red states. Trump will extend his lead, but by how much matters, because if he doesn’t wind up with a majority of delegates, the other candidates may well band against him to choose someone else.
Update: The non-super-delegate delegate count after Super Tuesday is 543 for Clinton, and 349 for Sanders. On the Republican side Trump has 285, Cruz 161, Rubio 87, Kasich 25, and Carson 8.
Not precisely a surprise, or anything. Barring an airplane accident, or some such, he’s the nominee.
Most polls show him winning against Clinton (and losing against Sanders).
Get used to the idea of President Trump, it is your very possible future. If he improves the economy (quite possible, politicians and central bankers have refused to do all the obvious things to improve it), he could be your President for quite some time.
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