Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: 2016 Primaries Page 3 of 5

Clinton and Trump Win

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On February 20, 2016

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Donald TrumpMargin is about 4 percent for Hillary. Trump’s victory is crushing.

Sanders won the majority of Hispanics, but African Americans broke hard for Clinton.

It seems unlikely that Sanders will win South Carolina, given the make-up of its primary voters.

Much of this depends upon whether Bernie’s momentum in the polls continues. African Americans are an important constituency, but if he can extend his numbers with Hispanics and women, he’ll be in good shape.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)

As for Trump, I don’t see a scenario that doesn’t involve his health, where he isn’t the Republican presidential candidate.

If he runs against Clinton, a lot of Sanders working class voters are going to vote for him, not Clinton, but his bashing of minorities may cost him the election. Unlike mainstream pundits, I am not 100 percent certain of that: After all, mainstream pundits also said there was no way Trump could win a primary.

(Update: I wasn’t going to comment on Jeb dropping out since he’s been such a non-factor, but I think it’s worth noting that he did speak out against Trump’s demonization of Hispanics and his anti-Muslim ban. That said, the fact that Trump said George Bush Jr. lied the US into Iraq and still won this primary is revealing.)

Can Clinton Win Using Super-Delegates?

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On February 20, 2016

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Hilary Clinton Secretary of State Portrait

Hilary Clinton Secretary of State Portrait

Democratic party super-delegates are unelected officials, Congressmembers, and DNC members.

They are overwhelmingly in favor of Clinton. There are 712 of them, 2,382 delegates are required to win.

Super-delegates were put in place exactly and precisely to stop a candidate like Sanders, who has little to no institutional support. (Remember, Obama did have plenty of insider support.)

Debbie Wasserman Schultz, head of the DNC, said “Superdelegates exist really to make sure that party leaders and elected officials don’t have to be in a position where they are running against grass-roots activists.”

So, if Sanders wins the majority of elected primary delegates, but Clinton has enough super-delegate support to win, will she do it?

Of course.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)

I have no doubt that Clinton would. She has wanted to be President for so long, and has run her campaign as a coronation. She feels entitled to it, and seems genuinely convinced that she would be a better President–and that people who vote for Sanders are fools.

So the real question is whether superdelegates pledged to Clinton would actually vote for her if it meant overturning the Democratic will of the party.

To do so would be disastrous. I suspect it would cost Clinton and Democrats the election. I’m not American, but if I were, I certainly would not vote for Clinton in such a situation. I think most of the young people who are strongly for Clinton wouldn’t either.

The effects would ripple forwards in time, as well, proving to youngsters that the game is rigged, and that Democrats can’t be trusted.

So many party insiders owe Clinton everything. Those who don’t are mostly aligned with Obama, who has appeared to back Clinton so far. Loyalty means a great deal to these people, it is the liquid coin of insider party politics.

I suspect they would not be so foolish as to throw the primary to Clinton, but it’s not inconceivable. I imagine the plan would be to use Scalia’s empty Supreme Court as blackmail. The Court has always been their go-to “you-have-no-choice but-to-vote-for-us-even-though-we-suck” issue.

I’d guess that super-delegates won’t be an issue in the end. They’ll go where the elected delegates are, or the issue will be made moot by Clinton winning or Bernie crushing her.

But there’s a huge landmine here, and it’s one that could damage the Democratic party for decades.

It’s also ethically despicable, in my opinion, but then that phrase describes everything about Schultz and other insiders who feel they run a political party for their own benefit, and not that of the country.

First National Poll Shows Bernie Up Over Clinton

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On February 19, 2016

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Sanders-021507-18335- 0004

Sanders-021507-18335- 0004

Fourty-seven to fourty-four. Within the margin of error, but given the very well established trend, I’m inclined to believe it.

Clinton went down fighting against Obama (which I admired), and I’m sure she’ll go down fighting against Bernie, but at this point, absent some shocking news, I think she’s done.

I really don’t understand Clinton’s campaign. She seemed to feel so entitled to people’s votes that she didn’t even bother to pander and lie. No you can’t have a $15 minimum wage, universal health care, free tuition, Glass-Steagall, or most other things.

I’m glad she told the truth, mind you, but it’s still strange to see someone so blind to political realities.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)

Clinton has run almost entirely on her biography, on being “capable,” without seeming to understand that her biography includes a lot of actions that primary voters might find objectionable.

She has assumed that women would vote for her, in effect, because she is a woman, and that minorities would stay massively in her column.

Right now only African Americans are holding steady for her; the numbers on virtually every other group are breaking for Bernie.

This is going to get super-ugly, because Clinton can’t win based on who she is, or on her platform, so she’s going to have to fling every piece of mud she can find and hope that something sticks.

She can’t even run on being more electable, because polls are increasingly showing Bernie does better against Cruz or Trump. He even does better than her in a three-way competition with Bloomberg.

This is going to be the most interesting election season of my life. I suppose it already is. Get out the popcorn, and roast your weenies. We may be roasting on fires in the antechamber of Hell, depending on who wins, but at least it’s fascinating.

Trump Says He Would Put a 35 Percent Tax on Goods from Mexico

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On February 13, 2016

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That would be illegal under NAFTA, and long odds under the WTO. Certainly under TPP, if it’s in force then.

Someone should straight up ask Trump if he’s willing to leave those treaties.

If he is, and the Dem candidate is not, he will win the election.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year.  If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)

Once more, Trump is a nativist populist. If he wasn’t so racist and for torture, I’d be pushing him hard. As it is, he’s beyond the pale, but a lot of working and middle class folks aren’t going to give a damn.

Bernie Sanders is now even with Clinton in Reuters Tracking Poll

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On February 13, 2016

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44.6 for Hillary. 44.3 for Bernie. Statistical dead heat.

More interesting is that a month ago Sanders was at 30.7% vs. Clinton’s 50.3%.

Internals show men do more go for Bernie.  Under 30s go massively for Bernie, women are only slightly for Clinton.  Blacks are -20 for Bernie, so that’s a major challenge for him.

But this is why Clinton’s campaign is lashing out.  Bernie is now officially a threat

I agree with Pachacutec that Bernie looks stronger in a general than Clinton.  The more people hear of his message, the more they like it, and Clinton has high fixed negatives.

Trump vs. Sanders. Socialist v. Nativist Populist,  looks likely.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year.  If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)

Henry Kissinger Is a War Criminal, Hillary Clinton Is a War Criminal

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On February 12, 2016

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Of course they admire each other and are friends.

And I’m not just referring to Clinton’s vote for Iraq, I’m referring to her involvement in Libya and Syria.

As for Kissinger, in addition to his genocide in Cambodia and Laos, amongst his other crimes is Kissinger’s support for Pinochet in Chile.

I want to remind you of something about Pinochet’s Chile.

Not only did Pinochet have rape rooms, his security forces used trained dogs to rape women and implanted rats in their orifices.

Hillary Clinton and Henry Kissinger both belong in the dock at a war crimes trial.

I believe in humane treatment of prisoners, however. Since they are friends, they can be cellmates.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)

Update: I want to say one more thing about this. That Clinton thinks this is acceptable, that it is not shameful to embrace Kissinger, shows just how little not just Clinton, but American elites, think of human rights and war crimes. Clinton simply can’t imagine why people are so upset over Kissinger, all the victims somehow don’t register with her

Now, it is possible that Kissinger is a great thinker one must listen to, despite him being an abominable human, but in such cases one doesn’t publicly embrace him.

Sanders and Trump Win in New Hampshire

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On February 9, 2016

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Donald TrumpNo surprise, the polls were leaning strongly to both of them.

Things get interesting from here for Sanders, but Trump will be moving to strength. New Hampshire is prosperous and has done well since the financial crisis; that’s not true in most of the upcoming states.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)

I think Trump will be the Republican nominee. On the Democratic side, the Clinton campaign is beginning to panic and lash out. Bernie’s national numbers keep trending up. The question is mostly whether they’re trending up fast enough to allow him to win.

Trump’s nasty endorsement of torture puts him even further beyond the pale than he was before, but he continues to be to the left of Clinton on most domestic policy.

Update: Exit polls show Bernie taking 49 percent of non-white voters. 85 percent of voters under 30. 55 percent of women. I suspect he’s the next Democratic nominee.

Trump Is Viable in a General Election and Has Left-flanked Hilary

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On February 7, 2016

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Donald TrumpHe’s a nativist populist.

Yesterday, during the debate he said that he wanted something even better than the single payer that Sanders is offering. Then he said that people are dying on the street (from poverty) and that he’d make that stop.

If Trump is the general election candidate, he left-flanks Hilary on economics. It is not even close. He wants bilateral trade deals (if you are anti-“free trade,” you want this too.) He does not want to diminish Medicare and SS. He wants universal health care.

His policy platform is pitched to appeal to the working class. They don’t like immigrants, and under the current economic regime, that makes sense: They are competing for the same jobs, and there aren’t enough jobs. I favor immigration, but you have to have an economy set up to deal with it.  Right now the US does not.

Trump’s got a minority problem. They aren’t going to vote for him.

But he has the ability to mobilize huge swathes of the white working, lower and middle classes.

He’s also less of a hawk than Clinton on foreign affairs.

A lot of people think he can’t win the primary, and he can’t win the general. I’m really not sure. He has the potential to be a real phenomenon. He parses as an outsider. He feels like a “conservative,” but his actual economic policies are left-wing and populist.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year.  If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)

He gets past, then, as many Americans desire to vote for the conservative. He will peel off a chunk of people who would usually vote Democratic for economic policy reasons. He is more credible on SS and Medicare than Clinton, which will appeal to the olds.

Steal Bernie’s free college plank (or offer something close to it), and he could clean up amongst youngsters as well.

Nothing’s guaranteed, but…

And, for the record, I think he’s more palatable than Cruz, the other front-runner. It isn’t like either of them are good candidates from my point-of-view, but Cruz is saying even crazier things than Trump, without any of the good stuff, and appears far, far more severe.

Both, are, of course, scum. Trump fell over himself to talk about how he’d torture yesterday, and I’ll have no truck with such.

But amongst evils, he’s not the worst, and that’s what American elections are about.

Pick yer poison.

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