The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: 2020 American Primaries Page 5 of 6

Bernie Sanders vs. Elizabeth Warren

Bernie Sanders

Many supporters of either Sanders or Warren have become rather vicious to each other. The claim from the Warren supporters is that their candidate is the candidate of ideas, having put out tons of policy proposals. (Sanders has 25 last time I looked, so he’s not shy on this.) She’s younger, and it’s important to some people that she’s a woman.

But the basic thing is that Warren feels like a technocrat, and people who want a competent technocrat as President are drawn to her.

Sanders has ideas as well, and plans, but he’s different from Warren. Warren has said that she’s “capitalist to the bones” and that the problem isn’t capitalism, it is that capitalism needs rules (enforced rules.)


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Sanders is a democratic socialist. He believes that capitalism has its place, but he believes it is fundamentally flawed. He has harked back to FDR’s second bill of rights, which include rights to health, education, a home, and a good income, among others.

Matt Taibbi’s interview with Sanders makes this clear:

He goes on to elucidate probably the biggest difference between himself and Warren.

“In the words of Roosevelt,” he says, “the Republic at the beginning was built around the guarantee of political rights. But he came to believe that true individual freedom can’t exist without economic security.

Elizabeth Warren

To Sanders, capitalism isn’t a good system that we’ve managed badly, it’s a flawed system which needs to be heavily controlled. Nor does he believe that the problem with the left is a lack of ideas. It is a lack of power. The left has ideas, the left has not been able to implement those ideas for decades because the left was out of power.

So, what is required is not to just get good rules back in place. It is to completely subordinate markets to democratic control, and when they are not the best way to do something, remove them.

Leaving these domestic issues aside, Sanders is clearly superior to Warren on foreign affairs, though certainly nowhere near ideal. (Tulsi Gabbard is the only candidate who actually has good, clear, foreign policies, which oppose the US killing foreigners simply because it thinks it has the right to.)

I favor Sanders, overall. Warren or Gabbard would be fine. Foreign affairs do matter, because non-American lives matter. Even if you think they don’t, constant interference in other nations’ affairs costs the US far more than it’s worth, both politically and economically. A straight pragmatist would decide that the advantages of American hegemony, to Americans, are not worth the cost. (This is a longer article, and I’ll write it another day, as the end of hegemony does also have some costs.)

Probably an ideal ticket to me would be either Sanders/Warren, or Sanders/Gabbard. Sanders is old, and he needs a younger VP, not as a balance, but as someone who can be counted on to do much of what he would have done.

I hope, in particular, that neither Trump nor Biden becomes President.

As for the fights between Warren and Sanders followers: The differences are real, yes, but they are minor compared to the differences between either candidate and Biden. It would be good for people to remember that. It’s in the interest of no actual supporter of Sanders or Warren to make attacks on either candidate so damaging that it hurts them in the general.

I hope everyone will bear that in mind going forward.

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Biden Will Run on Fear, Trump Will Run on Hope

The reason one should run for office is to act on one’s beliefs about what a good society is.

When people, or a party (Democrats), run on whether they are electable, they aren’t actually running on anything but hatred for an incumbent.

That means that the incumbent controls, even more than normal, whether you win or lose. You can only back into power.

Right now we have the spectacle of Democrats running against their own base (as is very common, Clinton certainly did, so did Obama, but with more concealment). Obama won because Bush was really unpopular, and Clinton lost because Obama had fucked up the economy.

But if Clinton hadn’t run against her base, she probably would have won.

People are reluctant to vote for candidates with whom they disagree. Is this surprising? Is this new?

Is it, instead, crazy to think otherwise?


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Unless Biden’s support among likely Democratic voters crashes out, this is the de-facto Democratic plan. Biden voted for Iraq and is unapologetic about it, and Trump will kill him on it. He was for NAFTA and Trump will kill him on it. He was for a bunch of other policies that Trump can’t attack him on, but left-wingers won’t forget he’s been for basically ever regressive policy possible for his entire career.

Making bankruptcy impossible for students, by the way, is also one of those policies.

So Biden will probably win the nomination, thanks to The Onion making him into “Uncle Joe,” (an act for which they should be ashamed) and Democratic party members actually being centrists, but the left-wing voters needed to, like, actually win an election are likely to not come out. The only thing motivating them will be fear of Trump.

That means that Biden will run on fear, and Trump will (again) run on hope.

That’s not a good campaign to run, and it means that Trump determines Biden’s fate; Trump is in the driver’s seat. He has to fuck up for Biden to win.

He might, for sure. But perhaps hoping for our enemies to fuck up and having no positive plan beyond “I’m not my enemy” isn’t a good way to campaign, or govern.

(And Biden will be a disaster as President. Terrible economic policies and terrible foreign policy. A complete clusterfuck.)

Oh well.

Why Uncle Joe Biden Is Leading Polls

I’m finding the Biden run amusing, after a fashion, because of Joe’s absolute refusal to pander. He was right on NAFTA, doesn’t regret three strike laws, thinks the bankruptcy bill was great, is taking money from lobbyists (and started his campaign at a lobbyist run party), and so on.

And he’s way ahead in the polls. Oh, his lead is exaggerated because the polls are under-representing younger voters, who will actually come out for Sanders in higher than normal percentages. They’re also not including Independents who will vote in Democratic primaries and who broke for Sanders last time.

But they’re still accurate in the sense that a plurality of Democrats (and in a 1 v. 1 scenario, surely a majority) approve of Joe.

When Biden declared, most pundits were whinging on and about his record, which is terrible.

I wrote about the persona of “Uncle Joe” because that’s what matters to his electability. Joe is a meme, and in the meme he looks great. Your friendly, wonderful Uncle who’s maybe a bit handsy, but doesn’t mean anything by it. That’s Joe.

Moreover, most Democrats thought that the Obama/Biden administration did a good job. They’re, in my opinion, delusional (unless they’re in the top four percent or so), but that doesn’t matter, it’s what they believe. To them Obama was a good–even great–President.

And Joe was part of that. In fact, the most common Biden meme is some version of him and Obama having a great time (the Onion bears a huge responsibility for this, and if he wins they will have a great deal of responsibility for the disastrous policies which ensue (or his loss to Trump.)

So people think “Joe is a great guy” AND “Joe was integral to Obama’s Presidency, which I loved.”

Yeah…

Joe isn’t unbeatable, I suspect, but he starts out with some massive advantages. Sanders (or perhaps Warren, if she genuinely moves ahead of Sanders, which she has not yet, for the same reasons the polls overstate Biden’s support), will outperform the polls significantly.

But he’s still the odds-on favorite.

Because he’s “Uncle Joe” and because too many Democrats think Obama was the next coming of FDR, rather than the bought-and-paid-for servant of the banker class, and merciless murderer (he massively ramped up drone attacks, chose to destroy Libya, and supported the Saudi’s genocidal war on Yemen).

This is definitely the stupidest timeline: Trump and now a candidate who may be elected based on a persona created by memes, while his actual record is largely ignored.


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Biden Declares: He’s Not Your Uncle Joe

So, Biden’s in the primary. Plenty of other people are chewing up his record, which is terrible, so I’ll pass on that. Just remember that he’s the representative for fucking over poor people and minorities.

I want to address something else: Uncle Joe.

See, the thing is that Joe seems like a great friend, and an even better family guy. I believe that’s true, I’ve seen Biden and this comes across as genuine. Minus being overly handsy, Biden just has a really friendly vibe to him.

He’d be a great friend, and a better father or uncle.

But he’s not your father or uncle (well, unless he is, which is not my expected blog demo) and he never will be.

People have weird relationships with politicians. I remember back in 2000, the poll that showed people wanted to have a drink with Bush, and not with Gore.

Great, except “drinking buddy” isn’t your relationship with the President or anyone important enough to be nominee for president.

Don’t have fantasy relationships with politicians.

A politician is someone with power, and your relationship with one is as someone they can either help or fuck up, whom they don’t care about personally.

What matters is not how they act towards friends and family, but how they act towards people they don’t care about.

How they’re going to act towards you.

Biden has a clear record. If he doesn’t know you, and you aren’t rich, he doesn’t care about you. If you’re poor, owe money, or a cop ever thinks you might have done something wrong, he wants you hurt, badly.

That’s his record.

If you’re rich, of course, Biden’s a good candidate if the only people you care about are you and your rich friends.

But Biden capability of being a great friend and family member doesn’t apply to you unless you are actually his friend or family member.

What’s his (or any other politician’s) record toward people like you?


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Why Buttigieg Beats Harris and Beto to Be the DNC’s Champion

A lot of the candidates are running to the left in one way or the other, but the party itself is uneasy about that. Party insiders, (which 538 mislabels “activists”), dislike Harris most. Many people thought it would be Beto; charismatic, but policy- and conviction-empty.

But the best centrist candidate is like Obama: Comes from a minority, is charismatic, is not in any way actually left-wing, and is empty enough for people to project their hopes onto. Beto makes three of four; Harris has the problem that she has a terrible record as a prosecutor–i.e. she’s not empty enough for people to project their hopes onto.

Only Buttigiegg checks all four boxes: minority (gay), charismatic, not left-wing and empty enough for people to see what they want in him.

To defeat actual left-wingers the best play is to find someone with a non-white male identity, who wants to win badly and has no radical bones or record at all.

Hail, Buttigiegg, saviour, and soon-to-be favoured son of the DNC.


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If Non Sanders Democratic Nominees Can’t Convince Voters To Vote For Them Isn’t That Bad?

 

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 In 2008 15% of Clinton primary voters for McCain. They united under the term PUMAs (Party Unity, My Ass.)

Because people seem to have no memory, the nastiness of the 2008 primary has been forgotten. At one point Clinton was pilloried for supposedly suggesting that Obama should be assassinated, for example. (No, she didn’t say anything close to that.)

Anyway, in 2016, 12% of Sanders primary voters voted for Trump, which is, well, less than the 15% of PUMAs voting for McCain.

Now there’s a poll showing that 26% of voters considering Bernie might not vote Democrat if Bernie isn’t the nominee.

This is apparently a bad thing, according to the screeching.

Except, of course, it isn’t.

What it indicates is that Sanders is able to motivate people who wouldn’t necessarily vote Democrat otherwise. In the 2016 primaries the pattern was that, in fact, Sanders tended to win Independents, and Clinton won Democrats.

And all polling showed that Sanders, had he been the nominee, would outperform Clinton against Trump.

Makes sense, doesn’t it, if he’s able to convince non Democrats to vote for him?

On an ethical level, no one owes the Democrats or Republicans or any candidate their vote automatically.

Represent their interests, convince them you do so.

EARN their vote. If non-Bernie candidates can’t do that, perhaps they shouldn’t be the nominee?


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Joe Biden’s Touching Problem

So, Biden has someone accusing him of inappropriate touching.

Biden, as a perusal of news photos will show, has always been very, errr, touchy, with women.

Though he hasn’t said he’ll run for President in 2020, Biden is regularly included in the polling and generally runs just slightly ahead of Sanders, with the two of them well ahead of the other contenders. (Polling at this time is largely a matter of name recognition.)

This isn’t a problem which will go away. If Biden runs, more and more women will make these accusations, because Biden has been free with his hands. It may well be that he meant nothing offensive by it, but the fact is that he does it.

How much this matters is unclear. Trump did far worse things, we have tape, and it didn’t matter.

On the other hand Biden is running as a Democrat, not a Republican.

I suspect the wisest course of action for Biden would be not to run. But he’s reportedly upset he didn’t run last time, after seeing Clinton lose.

If he does run, however, this will be a persistent, open sore throughout his campaign, and probably into his Presidency.


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Are Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Harbingers of the Turning of the Tide

Ilhan Omar

The two most media-savvy new House members from the last election were undoubtedly Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC). AOC has single-handedly made the Green New Deal a topic of discussion, and Omar has broken the Washington consensus that one can’t say bad things about Israel without being destroyed by the Israeli lobby as an anti-semite.

Along the way, they’ve also shifted–or started shifting–the Overton window on topics like Reagan being a racist (AOC) and on Obama being a mass murderer (Omar).

They’re a bit less radical than they seem: Omar, for example, is for the two-state solution in Palestine, but compared to what was allowed to be said previously, what was allowed to be supported previously, they are radical.

Meanwhile, the Democratic presidential field has as its norm support for Medicare for All, breaking up the big tech monopolies, and so on.

What it’s possible to talk about and espouse has changed.

On the other side of the ledger, the simple fact is that most of the new Democratic house members who were elected in 2018 are “moderates” and they have also received, overall, better committee assignments than the left-wingers.

Nancy Pelosi, who’s in charge of House Democrats, openly mocked the idea of the Green New Deal.

The Democratic Party establishment is still run by moderates; and those moderates still respect the right and despise the left.

Nor have Omar and AOCs’ voting records been as radical as their rhetoric.

So, are they, and the Presidential candidates, the harbingers of the turning of the tide?

Yes. But not that it will definitely be as left-wing as we might like. There is a demographic turn that is certain. Pelosi and other baby boomers are old. This is the end for them. They have another four to eight years at most, and then most of them will be replaced. The Millenials (who are no longer young) are coming of political age. Unlike GenX, which was not numerous enough to replace the Boomers wholesale, they will be the new majority in politics.

How radical they will be remains to be seen. The trends are optimistic, but Millenials have an authoritarian streak as well as a radical one. Certainly we can expect them to take climate change, for example, more seriously: They will have to live with the results, while the Boomers always knew they’d be dead before it really mattered.

We will know by the end of 2024 approximately how this is going to play out. That’s when the demographic edge will simply require that Millenials take over.

That’s not long from now. To put into perspective, it’s only three house elections away.

If the future is to be better, we will, in the old and tired blogosphere saw, need better democrats than the ones we are electing now. AOC and Omar are outliers, even among their own generation, within Congress.

I’m actually somewhat optimistic. I think that as the Overton window turns, and given just how much pain both the young and the old are in America (with soaring suicide rates, drug addiction, and declining life spans among key constituencies) that there’s a good chance of positive change.

There remains a strong chance of negative change as well. In 2010, I stated that the next President after Obama would be a right-wing populist or authoritarian. It was obvious, because Obama was fucking up and had decided to favor the rich and screw the middle class and poor.

When people are in pain they will choose the disruptive alternative. In 2016, that disruptive alternative was Trump (if Sanders had been the Presidential candidate for the Democrats, I agree with the polling that says he would have won, as he was also disruptive and, unlike Trump, not clearly a cruel lunatic).

So we have cycles: The Democrats get their chance. The Republicans get their chance.

When one of them actually succeeds and makes enough Americans clearly better off in ways that Americans can feel, they’ll lock down politics for the next 30 years or so, in the same way that FDR did and that Reagan and Thatcher did.

If they fail, they will simply pass the ball to the other party.

So far Democrats have been satisfied–more than satisfied–with just passing the ball back and forth. They liked Republicans, basically agreed with neoliberalism and wealth concentration (why not, Democratic leaders personally benefited), and didn’t want to upset the status quo.

AOC, and in particular Omar, are not okay with the status quo. Neither are most of the serious Democratic candidates for President.

If these candidates actually go on to govern in ways change the status quo in a way that is win for a clear voting majority of Americans (and non-voters can become voters), then they will succeed at turning the tide. If they don’t, they won’t.

What individuals do often does matter. It goes against the grain of our society with its “wisdom of crowds” consensus to admit this. A few individuals, chosen by large numbers of people, will likely decide if the US has a turn for another Golden (or more likely, Silver) Age, or not.

Choose wisely.


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