The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: 2024 American Elections Page 2 of 3

Kamala Makes Her Bones On Palestine

At the DNC:

“Israel always has the right to defend itself, and as president I will ensure that it has the means to defend itself against the horrors of attacks like October 7th which included unspeakable sexual violence.”

Lying and clear support of a genocide.

Harris is better domestically, but she’s toed the line on Israel.

Oh, and AOC has clearly chosen ambition over principle. She’s refused to call Gaza a genocide, and she was allowed to speak at the DNC.  It was explained to her, forcibly, I expect, the limits of how far having principles would get her and she’s made her choice and been rewarded for it.

Neither of these women have any real principles. If you’re willing to skate on genocide, you’ll skate on anything if you feel the need. Don’t think they wouldn’t do the same thing to Americans if it came to it.


My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

Tim Walz Is Excellent Domestically & Pro-Genocide

If I were an American, I’d be pretty happy about the guy, unless I have a problem with mass murder of foreigners.

On the good side:

  • signed a bill giving free breakfast lunch to all students;
  • 20 weeks of paid family & medical leave, for America, excellent;
  • right to repair bill;
  • free college tuition for students whose families make less than 80K;
  • banned non-competes;
  • and so on.

So, domestically, excellent. But he’s pro-Israel:

At AIPAC:

Israel is our truest and closest ally in the region, with a commitment to values of personal freedoms and liberties, surrounded by a pretty tough neighborhood.

“The values of personal freedoms of liberties” about an apartheid state is pretty rich.

To the Jewish Community Relationship Council, June 2, 2024 (aka, while the genocide was ongoing):

I see people debating something I don’t feel is debatable here. The ability of Jewish people to self-determine is foundational to everything […] and the failure to recognize the State of Israel taking away that self-determination. So it is anti-semitic, and that is a statement of fact.

If what you’re going to do with your “self determination” is commit a genocide, then you shouldn’t have self-determination. Note also the conflation of Israel with being Jewish, which if I were Jewish, I’d object to on the strongest terms, not wanting to be associated with mass murder.

Of course he’s the VP pick, Harris is healthy and he’s unlikely to matter a great deal. That said, he’s about as good as Harris was likely to pick. I’d say that the Harris/Walz ticket is better for more Americans than Trump/Vance, as long as you can get past the whole genocide thing.

Consider that damning with faint praise.


My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

Will Kamala Harris Be A Worse President Because She Doesn’t Have Children?

Here’s the case, put relatively well:

Moral superiority aside, a somewhat general rule of thumb is that if you have children AND they live in the same country, then you have a HIGHER vested interest in the wellbeing of your country.

I’ll take “wellbeing of your country” to mean wellbeing of the residents of your country, though it doesn’t have to mean that.

Now, this argument is one that’s true sometimes. But only sometimes. It also assumes that parents care about the wellbeing of their children, which isn’t always true, but we’ll assume it is for now.

Let’s run thru why it doesn’t work for powerful people, which includes most politicians, certainly anyone with a decent chance of winding up President of the United States.

It is possible to take actions which increase the wellbeing of your children, which also harm the wellbeing of your country. American politicians and oligarchs, for example, sold America’s manufacturing base to China. They become filthy rich as a result and their children will be very well taken care of even if America is in serious decline. It did, however, harm the majority of Americans. (There are thousands of other examples, feel free to add some in comments.)

Your children may live in a worse-off America, but they are better off than if you did not do that harm. (Or, at least, that is your belief.)

If you prioritize the wellbeing of a small group over a larger group it usually possible to hurt the larger group to benefit the smaller group.

In fact, there is a strong argument that people without children are far more likely to prioritize the wellbeing of the residents of their country than those with children: they don’t have to make a choice: “should I make my kids better off OR the everyone else better off?”

Even at the simplest level, of “should I spend more time with my kids OR spend more time doing my job” there is this conflict. Great men and women are often bad parents, because if working an extra hour means helping a thousand of someone else’s children, they do that even if it hurts their own kids.

There is no free lunch. You always have to prioritize.

Harris will be a terrible President, I’m confident of that. But it has nothing to do with whether or not she has kids and, in fact, if she intended to do the right things for ordinary Americans, the fact that she didn’t have children would be a significant plus.

Most cultures have a family worship disease: the idea that you should always put your family first.

NO.

If you are willing to put your family first when doing so means that large numbers of people will suffer, you’re a monster. In fact, one of the necessities of having power over large numbers of people has to be that you don’t put your family first IF doing so will result in harm to others.

If you reach a point where it’s your family or a large number of others, and you can’t choose the “others” then you should step down and give the job to someone who can take care of the others.

Only those without power can, ethically, prioritize their own family without being monsters.

That this has to be explained to people is another sign of our inability to reason clearly about moral and ethical issues.


My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

The Absurdity of “Trump Is Worse” Arguments Aimed At American Palestinians

Every time one mentions that Biden has committed genocide, someone says “But Trump will be worse!”

Well, here’s your answer:

If you don’t get this something is wrong with your ability to put yourself in other people’s shoes.

And yes. it is on Biden and Democrats:

“All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the airplanes and bombs, it’s all from the US. The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability. … Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period.”

Also, the idea of “holding them accountable after they’re elected” is almost entirely bullshit. It rarely works. Pre-election is your point of maximum leverage, not after. Especially if a politician is in power, make them do something for you before you vote for them.

But, basically, “Democrats killed your family, but Trump will be as bad or worse” isn’t going to convince people whose families Biden killed to vote Democratic.

If you think it will, something is wrong with you.


My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

Joe’s Out And The Election Is No Longer In The Bag For Trump

So, an attempted Presidential assassination, and now Biden has stepped down as nominee.

My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.

Primary pressure seems to have been funneled thru Nancy Pelosi.

The most important thing is that the election is no longer in the bag for Trump. There was no way, minus a deus ex machina that Trump would lose against Biden, but it’s not so sure with another candidate.

Those who would never vote for Biden, mostly because of genocide, are now in play if the nominee can keep from bowing too deep to AIPAC and Netanyahu. After all, Trump spends all his time talking about how he’d have done more to genocide than even Biden did. And Biden not stepping down is helping with this: the nominee can pretend they’re less of a psychopathic mass murderer than Biden or Trump without having to actually walk the walk.

In general this is an opportunity for the nominee to run populist and gut Trump’s appeal.

Odds are the candidate will be Kamala Harris, especially as she can draw on the fund raising already done for Trump/Harris and no one else can, but we’ll see if a viable alternative arises. Drama in the nomination process would keep attention on Democrats and off Trump.

Kamala is a bad candidate, but so is Trump. He was a very unpopular president, and looks good only compared to Biden, who was even more unpopular.

No predictions as to who wins, but the election is back in play.


My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

How Much Does Genocide In Gaza Effect The US Presidential Election?

I’ve been saying it mattered a lot for quite some time, but, finally, some numbers:

Foreign policy debates rarely determine U.S. presidential elections, although polling suggests that 2024 might be an exception. Nationwide, nearly 4 in 10 voters (38 percent) say they are less likely to vote for President Biden because of his handling of the war in Gaza, according to a July 2024 Century Foundation/Morning Consult poll of 1,834 registered U.S. voters. Many core constituencies—including independents, swing state likely voters, and Democratic Party activists—are angry at Biden’s unqualified support for the Israeli assault on Gaza.

The issue isn’t that people who hate genocide will vote Trump, he’s pro-genocide as well. Instead it’s that they will stay home or vote third party and that if they do hold their nose and vote Democratic, they’re less likely to donate or, more importantly, to volunteer.

In a close election, and Biden’s best case is a close election, that matters.

To put it simply, Biden decided that mass-murdering Palestinians in service to AIPAC and Zionism was more important than being re-elected, and in affect that all the things he claims to care about which might help Americans are less important than helping Israel commit genocide.

That’s a choice, just like his choice to run again even though he’s clearly in serious decline and obviously can’t act as President for another four years.

Biden has chosen to lose the election, and anyone who blames anyone but Biden for his loss is full of it.


My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

Hard To Care About the Attempted Assassination Of Trump

Disputed if this picture is real, but it doesn’t matter, it’ll be the iconic picture.

Obviously it makes him more likely to be elected. Obviously you can’t call someone Hitler and a fascist and a threat to everything good without an increased chance for violence. If he is Hitler reborn, after all, killing him would be the right thing to do.

Blame will be apportioned, whether rightly or wrongly, and it increases the chance and amount of violence and repression down the line when and if Trump becomes President.

I don’t, personally, care much except as regards the consequences. I wouldn’t care if Trump or Biden was killed, not for them, anyway. They’re both mass murderers and Trump has spent the last nine months going on about how much he supports the Gaza genocide.

That said, I wouldn’t kill either myself or advise anyone to assassinate them, as it is counter-productive and pointless. Both of them are symptoms, not causes, and if Trump had been killed whoever replaced him would have been as bad or worse and likely won on a sympathy/vengeance surge.

America’s problems aren’t about any individual. If only it were so.

(Also, I don’t see why everyone’s so worked up. As Trump once said about a school shooting, “get over it.” This is the country the right and neoliberals wanted: all these weapons available + an economic and political pressure cooker. What did you think would happen?)


IanWelsh.net is supported by readers. Please subscribe or donate, and please share articles. The more you help, the more I can write.

Let’s Talk About Joe Biden

The debate made it clear that Biden is in serious decline. Remember that it’s not just about now, it’s about four years from now. The media has turned on him hard, and so have many in the Democratic party.

My first takeaway from the debate was that Biden if Democrats were honest and honorable, they would have already forced him to step down, using the 25th amendment. Being President is a hard job, and he’s not up to it. The Vice-President exists for a reason.

My second is that a constitutional amendment is needed to prevent anyone over, say, sixty-nine, from running for President.

The third is to ask, who’s been running America? I had thought it was no longer Biden, but what we’re hearing is that it is Biden, and that he’s erratic and angry and doesn’t understand much of what he’s doing. Biden has done some good things as President, mostly thru some good appointments, but when age related decline starts, it often moves fast.

As for what’s going to happen—I have no idea. I don’t much like Harris, among other things when she was a DA she deliberately put people she knew were innocent in prison. But she’s not senile, and Democrats are panicking. If Biden won’t go peacefully, they should twenty-five him, get Kamala a good running mate & pray a lot.

The other option being floated is a “speed primary”, get it done in four to five weeks, but that seems problematic.

Either way, getting rid of GenocideJoe and having a candidate who can distance themselves would be the smart political move. I imagine Trump will still win, but it might not be a complete disaster.

America’s in serious decline and this clusterfuck is just a symptom of the elite’s inability to govern effectively. This problem should have been dealt with before it blew up, but everyone was pretending there was no problem, despite dozens of clips of Biden’s decline making the rounds. The strategy was denial, denial, denial. “The Emperor’s clothes are the most beautiful in the world!”

But Biden himself played the part of the kid “The Emperor has no clothes” and the feeding frenzy has begun. There will be more leaks and bad press, the knives are out for him, because other Democrats think he’s going to take them with him. Just as bad for Biden, Obama, who made Joe President last time by arranging for him to win the primary, seems to have abandoned him. Not sure if the Clinton machine is still onside: Hilary is stupid and might be, if Bill’s making the decisions, they will jump ship

If nothing else, it will be quite the show.

Edit: Harris’s numbers are now trending better than Biden’s.

Addendum 2: One thing about Harris is that she’s less pro-Israeli. To win, Democrats need Muslims. Trump is hardcore pro-Israel. If Kamala became president and pushed back against Netanyahu in some way that matters, she’d get a lot on the left and among Muslims. Heck, if she’s good enough, I’d endorse her (not that my endorsement matters). Always go with the person who isn’t pro-genocide. (I recognize she’ll probably bow to the pro-Israeli lobby.)

Your support makes it possible for me to write, if you like my writing and want more, please SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

Page 2 of 3

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén