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Category: Europe Page 1 of 17

Verdun Then and Now

Thirty-one years ago on my first trip overseas I visited Verdun in France. Specifically to see the battlefield of Verdun, where von Falkenhayn sought to bleed the French white. From 21 February 1916 to 18 December 1916, 9 months, 3 weeks and 6 days the Boche–the term the French used for the Germans–did exactly that. I’d written my senior’s honor thesis in history on Verdun and felt it was right to visit.

Fallen Lion of France at the Verdun Battlefield

I’m not going to go into too much detail. You can read about it in its fullness here. I only want to add a few things. First, this was the first time any general attempted a strategy of attrition. Some of what Grant did during the Wilderness and the siege of Fredricksburg is semi-attritional, but it wasn’t Grant’s spoken intent as it was the explicit aim of the Cheif of the German General Staff Erich von Falkenhayn’s. He knew he could not break through the ring of forts surrounding the Meuse Heights and the medieval city of Verdun. His aim was to take the heights and dig in and then take the strategic defensive, forcing France to regain her honor at any cost. 50 German divisions squared off against 75 French. von Falkenhayn succeeded in forcing France’s hand, certainly. In the end his strategy was a failure and he was dismissed by the Kaiser and replaced by Ludendorff and Hindenburg, who quickly established a military dictatorship over the Second Reich for the remainder of the war. Needless to say that over a million men–French and German–died fighting in the trenches along and up the heights and into the forts Douamont and Vaux trading them back several times.

Fort Douamont on the Meuse Heights

If the Miracle on the Marne was the most important battle of the 20th century–and it was we ought paraphrase Churchill and call it France’s finest hour. That being so makes the Battle of Verdun one the finest last stands in the annals of human endeavor. To a man the good, stolid French poilus stood and died in the mud, the filth, the lice, the decaying bodies and the artillery shells shattering overhead all day long, every day for almost a year.

When I visited in 1994 I walked from the city of Verdun all the way up the heights along the single supply route the French called the “voie sacrée” – the sacred way. It was ten miles there and ten miles back. A long day. I walked through trenches, both forts Douamont and Vaux and at the end of the day I walked, rather solemnly through the hallowed arches of the Ossuary, which holds the bones of over 130,000 unidentified French and German soldiers. There was no entrance fee for anything and I was free to roam just about anywhere I wished, except when I saw signs that declared, “Non! Munitions non explosées!” Unexploded ordnance, still active almost a hundred years after being fired.

Ossuary of Verdun

So this morning I watched a video made by a young French woman of the battlefield and its environs. A lot has changed. There is a new, modern museum, and to walk the grounds and see the museum cost about $20. The young woman does an admirable job of guiding the viewer through the most important parts of what I now guess is a monument park of sorts called Mémorial de Verdun Champ de bataille. She’s tactful, sincere, respectful and cognizant of the sacrifice the men made for her. She honors them in her own way. I was pleased to see their sacrifice is still remembered and revered. (As some of you may recall, I had the good fortune to befriend an American WWI veteran in the 1990s before he passed away. So, WWI is important to me, I carry the memory of one of the last American soldiers to fight in the war and I cherish that memory.) She also pays her respects to the Germans who fell during the battle (part of the site was re-dedicated in the 50’s after the Franco-German rapproachment after WWII). She even visited the graves of our doughboys who fought in the area in 1918.

In all honesty, I can’t say I would have enjoyed walking through the museum. Of course seeing the uniforms and the kit of the poilus was fascinating, but there was a rich, chilling awe of gravitas to my imagination that day as I walked through the empty echoing halls of forts Douamont and Vaux. There were no wax figures as there are now. Only a haunting silence. If I listened closely enough I could almost hear the distant echoes of incoming artillery. The shots of mausers. The cracks of the countering French Berthiers. And the loud pops and booms of French and German grenades.

Sometimes less is more.

Regardless, it was an unforgetable experience.

Losing Our Asian Allies – And Fast

Ian in his last post mentioned that our Asian allies are slipping away from us. While we pretend to strategically re-orient the Japanese are engaging in massive rearmament begun by Abe and being continued by the current government. Japan has lost confidence in the American security umbrella because of the deceit we’ve displayed in foreign relations. The Koreans? I lived in Korea. They’re simply apoplectic. Some are even at the point where they are willing to consider a loose confederation with the north, an entente of sorts so the South has the protection of the North’s nuclear umbrella and the North gains goods and services from the South.

This is simply unheard of. When I talked to one of my former students who now works in the foreign ministry and he told me this I was gobsmacked.

Ian’s correct. For 400 years the balance of payments from the rest of the world went to the Littoral seapower states. For the last 50 years the balance of payments has been reversed.  All that gold is going back home. In one generation the United States has squandered all the goodwill and wealth it received during WWI and WWII. China in the last 50 years has lifted more people out of poverty than the rest of the world did during all of recorded history. Chew on that stat for a moment.

I will be visiting China and South Korea to do a 20 year retrospective tour and a 30 year retrospective tour on the former and the latter. I don’t know what to expect, but I remember China 20 years ago and being blown away.

The USA is in deep strategic shit. For 200+ years our power has been based on our complete hegemony of this hemisphere. For 75 of the last 100 years our main strategic goal has been the prevention of one power or an alliance of powers attaining hegemonic power over the Eurasian landmass. In the last six years we’ve abandoned that VITAL national interest for what? We’ve driven Russia into the arms of China. India lost all confidence in us. Now East Asia has.

If a single power or coalition of powers dominate the Eurasian landmass our two oceans will not protect us.

It appears I might have been wrong about the Israeli-Iran pissing contest being the opening act of WWIII. Good. What it really feels like is the first Balkan War in 1912. The calculus is being made in Beijing. And Tokyo. And Seoul. And Taipei. We lack the ability to protect our allies conventionally. And no one wants nukes.

I don’t have any smart quip to conclude with except a Spanish expletive, “la puebla es jodida.”

You get the idea.

The Real Reason for French Collapse at the Outset Of WWII

I doubt one in ten of you know the importance of the Battle of the Marne? Quite simply, had the French, plus a smallish-medium but crucial contigent of soldiers from the UK, not halted the invading Germans at the Marne, the 20th century would have looked very different. Sure, von Moltke the Younger lost his nerve and pulled two corps from his right flank, and shipped them East to help fend off the Russian hordes. But, the French were glorious at the Marne, and each and every one of us owe a debt a gratitude to France for the elan and courage.

As Holger Herwig writes in The Marne, 1914, “At dawn on 6 September, 980,000 French and 100,000 British soldiers with 3,000 guns assaulted the German line of 750,000 men and 3,300 guns [across a front stretching from] Verdun and Paris.” The Miracle of the Marne had begun. By the 9th of September the Germans were in full retreat. For the next three days they were battered by and bloodied by the French and English. Most historians of World War One agree that the Miracle on the Marne was the most important battle the 20th century.

What followed were two giant armies trying to outflank each other in a race to the sea. Then, they settled down into four years of siege warfare. Now, all the European observers who came to watch our Civil War — von Molke the Elder was one of them — all took away the wrong lesson. They were more interested in the use of railroads for logistics — not unimportant. But, had they really paid attention to just how much proto-siege warfare was conducted during our Civil War, they might have anticipated trench warfare and its horrific casualties. Fredericksburg anyone?

So, we got four years of muck. And for France, in that four years, the flower of her youth perished. Cheese-eating surrender monkeys is the most common and ugly perjorative for them that I can think of at present. It refers to the French collapse in six weeks and one day in the face of the German Invasion. But no one asks the question why? There is a one word answer: Demographics.

One of every six young men in France’s Lost Generation died. Not wounded, or maimed. Dead. Add in the cost of the maimed and disfigured, the skewed ration between men and women? Twenty years later when their children had to serve the nation, they were simply unwilling to endure the sacrifices of the previous war. Not in the face of all the odious crimes of the Nazis.

So, any time I hear about cheese eating surrender monkeys, someone gets an unsolicited history lesson.

Both The UK and Germany Are Going to Go Full Anti-Democratic or Full Trumpian

So, Starmer continues his massive austerity program, just kissed Trump’s ass with a terrible trade deal, and:

Meanwhile, in Germany:

Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz has been confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor. His grand coalition is off to a rocky start — and its call on Germans to swallow austerity is sure to make things worse…

… Merz’s cabinet completely sidelined the more socially conscious “Christian-social” wing of his party. New SPD head Lars Klingbeil initially promised a complete turnaround, a “generational change” for the party after the failures under previous chancellor Olaf Scholz. No one from the left wing of the SPD is represented in government…

What they’re going to try is some military Kenesianism. It won’t work.

So, the AfD, Germany’s right wing Trumpist style party will either wind up in charge soon, or it will be banned or lawfared into the ground.

Centrists spent generations crushing the left. Starmer purged Labour almost entirely of the left after he became leader. But a lot of ordinary people want centrists out. Since the left is usually not viable, they go right, and by right I mean damn near Nazi.

Anyway Merz is a ‘tard, the last gasp of the centrists: “give the rich even more money. More! More! More! Hurt ordinary people to pay for it!” Then come the fucking Nazis. Or, if they refuse to let them win, democracy effectively dies, and violent resistance will begin.

Absolute morons, so blinded by neoliberal ideology and greed that they refuse to ever really help ordinary people, with predictable results. I only hope that when the right does get in power, instead of lining up the trans, gays and socialists first they say hello to people like Merz and Starmer and they get to reap as they have sowed.

Oh, and those people supporting parties like the AfD and Reform who aren’t rich fascists? You’re idiots. Fools. Poltroons. Morons. They will betray you and hurt you, just as Trump has done to the majority of his supporters. Go left, or be destroyed. Your choice and most of you are making the wrong one.

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. – Mencken

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Aeschylus Was As Right 2,540 Years Ago As He Is Right Today

2,540 year ago Aeschylus said,”in war truth is the first causualty.” Even though this might be true it should not preclude us from making every attempt possible at uncovering and showing others the truth. I believe in the truth as much as I believe it is capable to be objective. Anyone who says that an “objective journalist is a myth,” is a liar with an agenda. Do we all have biases? You bet. It is in the recognition of said biases and overcoming them is how the truth emerges.

That said, the best, most balanced site concerning operational, strategic and tactical reporting on the Russo-Ukrainian Warcan be found at the Austrian Military Academy.

These two are the most recent, here and the Ukrainian Purgatory, here. Both are in flawless, if somewhat accented, English.

Perhaps we can claw back a bit of truth from the great Greek dramatists hell.

LePen Being Banned From Running For President Is Not Lawfare

I should note that this was NOT my original assumption. I assumed this was like Georgescu, or Khan in Pakistan or the arrest of Istanbul’s Mayor: politically motivated bullshit, designed to make sure a popular politician can’t run and either disproportionate or a stitch-up.

It’s true that LePen is leading the polls and would probably be the the next President, yes, but as best I can tell it’s also true that she’s guilty of misusing public funds and that the court case and the sentence are not politically motivated.

The sentence is:

4 years prison (2 years suspended, 2 years at home under electronic monitoring), a €100,000 fine, and most devastatingly, 5 years of ineligibility for public office with immediate execution.

The best summary I’ve found is this one by Arnaud Bertrand. But I’ll summarize the salient points:

  1. The case started in 2015, and it was dragged out so long by LePen’s own lawyers who filed every delaying motion they could think of, the timing is not a government plot.
  2. Parties, including LePen’s, were using EU parliamentary assistant funds to pay for party matters. LePen is not the only one to do this, but she did much more of it than the other French party, the MoDems (Macron’s party): 2.9 million vs. 204,000, plus did it longer and the MoDems stopped before being forced to while LaPen kept doing it until she couldn’t. The MoDem’s punishment was minor, LePen’s is savage, but this appears to me to reflect the seriousness of what each did.
  3. There really isn’t any question that the RN and LePen are guilty. They are.
  4. Being forbidden from running is part of the law: if found guilty, you can’t run for office. However the court could have delayed that until after appeals.

So the questions are:

  1. Is the sentence disproportionate to what was done to the MoDems. (No, I’d say.)
  2. Is the timing based on LePen now being the front runner. (No.)
  3. Should the court have held off on banning LePen from running until the appeal?

Again, I’d say no. There’s no question she’s guilty. If it was a case where there was some doubt, then holding off would make sense. The intent of the law is clear: if you have misappropriated funds, you shouldn’t be in office. This seems like a reasonable law: we don’t want politicians who misuse public money in office. The appeal won’t change the fact she’s guilty, and if guilty, she shouldn’t be allowed to be President.

This is unfortunate but the law is reasonable, there’s no case that she’s innocent and she did do something wrong and didn’t stop until forced to.

This isn’t Lawfare. This is justice, and the system working the way it should (except the case took too long) to enforce a law which is entirely reasonable, and not un-just. The higher penalty compared to the MoDems is also reasonable, because it is proportionate to the different actions of different defendants.

It’s easy to be cynical right now, to assume that law enforcement and justice is always corrupt, because it so often is. But on the rare occasions where it is reasonable and just, we should admit it and celebrate.

LePen is guilty, and she shouldn’t be allowed to be President of France and the court was right to rule both things, and was following a law which is actually reasonable and just.

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Europe Can Have Both A Welfare State & A Warfare State

I keep reading about how if Europe increases military spending they’ll have to cut welfare spending.

Let’s look at a little history: back around 1960 West Germany spent 4% of GDP on their military. They were happy to do so. They also had a very generous welfare state. So did most of Western Europe and they were spending a lot on their militaries.

“But Ian,” you exclaim, “that’s not possible. If you have a warfare state, you can’t have a welfare state!”

Here’s the rule. Pick any two of the following three:

  1. A Welfare State.
  2. A Warfare State.
  3. Low Taxes on the rich and corporations.

All it takes to have both a warfare and welfare state is 90% top marginal tax rates and various other taxes and laws designed to force corporations and the rich to invest in actual production and not in rentierism. Strangely, when Europe and the US had those tax rates, they had the best economies in their entire history.

Wonder why none of the pundits suggest going back to the successful warfare/welfare policies of the 50s and 60s?

I guess it’s a mystery.

(Oh, and why did Europe pay less than 2% of GDP on its military in recent decades? Might it have something to do with the fact that the USSR collapsed and there was no actual military threat to Europe?)

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Romania Bans Georgescu From Running Permanently

I earlier wrote that the West’s elites were too tentative in their approach to lawfare, using Trump (where I’m right) and Georgescu as examples. With Goergescu they had initially just annulled an election, but let him run again.

Seems I was wrong about Georgescu. Using charges of Russian influence after “finding” weapons and cash and whatnot in his network. I’m—skeptical, at best, this looks like a stitch up to me, but I can’t rule out that the evidence isn’t planted.

So Romania has now banned Georgescu from running at all.

But here’s the thing, take a look at the polling:

The runaway leader. By far. So they’ve banned the most popular choice from running.

It’s hard to say this isn’t anti-democratic. If I were Romanian I’d feel fully justified in starting or joining a revolution in response and as a foreigner, I rather hope that’s what happens, because if it doesn’t, then this sort of election interference will spread in the West. “Vote for anyone you want, as long as the candidate is someone current incumbent can stand.” It’s not hard to imagine this being used against the left as well as the right: a populist left-winger like Corbyn, for example. (Remember there were threats that if Corbyn won the military would launch a coup.) Melenchon’s left wing might face the same fate if it it wins the Presidential election.

So far I haven’t seen the EU condemn this, and I rather assume it’s done with Brussel’s approval. A bad omen for change in Europe. And if change can’t be peaceful, at some point it will be violent.

The neoliberals have ruled for too long, and are too full of themselves to believe that anyone else even has a right to rule. The old post-war order disagreed with Thatcher and Reagan and their heirs, and had ruled for about the same amount of time, but they allowed the transfer of power to a new ideology.

Democracy requires this: if you can’t choose something radically different at the ballot box, then you don’t really have elections.

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