Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Europe Page 9 of 16

The Bitter Harvest of Failure: France’s Far Right Takes the Lead in Regional Elections

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On December 6, 2015

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Thirty percent to 29 percent for the Republican/UDI coalition, with the socialists (who aren’t actually socialists), coming in at 22 percent.

Key grafs:

Many political analysts stressed the impact of the Paris terror attacks could have on voters’ opinions. They contributed to raise the popularity of the three main parties, but the far right has also especially benefitted.

Another factor was the fact that the social democrat government of Francois Hollande has been losing more and more support among the population for failing to solve the issue of high unemployment rates while implementing measures of economic austerity (i.e. restrictions on public spendings). (sic)

There is nothing worse for the left than “center left” parties who follow right wing policies like austerity.

As I, and others, have warned repeatedly, if other groups cannot solve the very real problems exaggerated by austerity, voters will eventually hand power over to real radicals with a mandate to do “whatever it takes,” and I do mean “whatever.”

The radicals may be to the left or the right, but every time someone like Hollande takes power as “left” and then wimps out on actually fixing things, it discredits the left.

The fascist right will continue to rise as the center, right, and center-left all hue to neo-liberal orthodoxy, which got us into this mess and cannot get us out of it.

And so, the men and women on horseback are coming. In America we have Trump, in France they have LePen, and there will be many others.

A government which continually fails the people will be replaced, one way or another.

We live in a pre-revolutionary and pre-war world and the risks are ratcheting up every year. It is this that those of us who fought the ideological wars of the early 2000s were trying to avoid. We wanted changes made that would not require vast war and revolution, because we knew, and still know, the river of blood from which such change is born.

We had our chance. We failed, as those who came before us failed. Aye, and those before them.

And so the world will convulse in blood and terror. The old regimes are not yet dead, but they are bleeding out, and as they do so, they continue to loot and fornicate, pretending all is well enough.

And why not? Those who made this world are the richest rich the world has ever known. To them, this is the best of times.

They will reap as they have sown, but those who failed to stop them, or rather, their children, will reap an even more bitter harvest.

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The Reason for the Paris Attacks

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On November 14, 2015

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So, 128 dead so far, and over 200 injured in multiple attacks across Paris. ISIS has claimed responsibility, though nothing in their communique shows any knowledge not in the news, so it may or may not be them.

In a sense it doesn’t matter who it is. The task of any group which seeks minority support is to “heighten contradictions,” as the old Marxists used to say. You commit atrocities precisely because you want backlash against an identifiable minority. The more they are oppressed, the more they will turn to you, the less they will inform, and so on.

“Terrorists” and western Governments have become co-dependent. Many in the West want further excuses for internal repression (which is usually justified as just being against a despised minority, then spreads), and for more war.

Hollande has used language which indicates he may be about to invoke NATO Article 5. If so, he would presumably want significant Western military action where ISIS is—Iraq and Syria.

This is a potential disaster, given the Russian presence, and given that the Russian presence, in part, was to forestall a NATO “no fly zone.” With public opinion inflamed, the West may tell Russia to “step aside, or else.” What if Russia doesn’t?

Even if Russia does withdraw, welcome to another quagmire, ending in a failed state. (Yes, Syria is a failed state now, mostly, but if you think Western intervention will fix that you haven’t been paying attention.)

Let us hope sanity reigns. And let us remember that attacks of this magnitude are reasonably common in Iraq, Syria, and other failed states. To be sure, it is a tragedy. It is no more of a tragedy, nor less a tragedy, than a similar attack in Baghdad.

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Eurocrat Coup in Portugal

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On October 23, 2015

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Oh. My. God.

Portuguese FlagPortugal has entered dangerous political waters. For the first time since the creation of Europe’s monetary union, a member state has taken the explicit step of forbidding eurosceptic parties from taking office on the grounds of national interest.

Anibal Cavaco Silva, Portugal’s constitutional president, has refused to appoint a Left-wing coalition government even though it secured an absolute majority in the Portuguese parliament and won a mandate to smash the austerity regime bequeathed by the EU-IMF Troika.

Those who make peaceful change impossible…. well, you know the rest.

I am incredulous.

It’s now quite clear that the European Union is anti-democratic to its core. It needs to be radically changed or abandoned. It was already very difficult to be simultaneously pro-democracy and pro-EU, given the “Euro treaties cannot be changed by elections” stance of the Eurocrats (and given how far out of their way they went to make sure that the treaties were not subject to referenda), but this is beyond the pale.

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The Human Crop of War

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On September 14, 2015

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There is little question that absent the Iraq war there would be no Syrian refugee crisis.  The line draws direct between the two.

Germany, today, is closing its borders to refugees after earning the world’s praise (for a change) for its compassionate acceptance of those who needed its shelter, and those whom it certainly can afford to shelter. As the richest European state, Germany can take more refugees, feed and house them and even find work for them.

Ethically, the countries who should be taking most of the Syrian refugees are those responsible for Iraq and who have directly fueled the flames of the Syrian conflict: Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, America, Britain and so on.

There is a deadly price for posturing that leads to war: be clear, Assad, however bad he was was not as bad as the Syrian civil war.  To be sure, there is often a case for ending the reign of tyrants, but one does need to check the price tag.

And, along with checking the price, one might want to to check the motivation. Wrong ends generally feed back to into wrong means: it is not credible, given their own records on human rights, that most of those who are trying to overthrow Assad actually are acting out of good motives.

This is power politics, not humanitarian action.

There is little more to say about this.  We could take care of the refugees if we wanted to, we have the resources, this is not in question.  In question is if we want to.  In a western world whose baseline policy is austerity—who do not even want to care for their own citizens, the answer tends to be no.

Jeremy Corbyn, who suggests (to mainstream laughter) that the solution to the Syrian crisis is not to bomb Syria more, is the beginning of the repudiation of the nonsense that doing more of what didn’t work in the past is the solution.  Let us hope he is Britain’s next Prime Minister, and the beginning of a wave of repudiation of the austerity and war.

Until then the weak will suffer what they must, and powerful will do as they will.  And then whine about the results of their actions.

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Tsipras: “Now that I Have Unconditionally Surrendered, I Promise to Lead the Fight.”

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On July 24, 2015

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Yeah, ok:

As far as my own code of values is concerned, the presence of the Left in the government is not in order to seek high office. It is the stronghold of the interests of our people! A stronghold for the protection of those who have been wronged! A stronghold for the large class fights against vested interests within the country!

As far as I am concerned, I have no intention of abandoning this stronghold. We will not become cowards, nor will we ignore our responsibilities, nor will we become apologists for lost fights. Because the only lost fights are those which never took place!

The fights lying ahead will be given with the same fighting spirit, the same faith in our strength, the same dignity and they will be fights which will be won.”

The same lack of planning and willingness to fold when faced by strong opposition? The same ability to create a worse situation than would have existed if you’d just accepted the first deal on the table?

Not just contemptible but delusional, and Greeks who are anti-austerity and still support him are fools. (Of course, given the pollsters got the results of referendum wrong by 20 percent, who’s to say that 60 percent of Greeks do still support Tsipras?  More likely he’s got the support of a little more than the 40 percent who voted Yes.)

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When Will Greek Looting and Austerity End?

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On July 15, 2015

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Back in 2010 a friend predicted it would end when Greeks stormed parliament and beat or hung members of parliament.

It seems that, while that may or may not be literally the case, in general terms it is one of three possible end states. Since there are always enough MPs willing to sign any deal, no matter how bad, because they personally do not suffer the consequences of said deals, bringing the consequences home will be necessary.

The second possibility is the Schauble plan. It is odd that Schauble, though extraordinarily punitive, is willing to offer a pretty good deal for Grexit. He’s worked hard for it, and maybe he’ll be able to force it through yet. So far he has been stymied primarily by the fact that the Greeks will accept any deal, no matter how bad. You can imagine Schauble thinking:

“I want the Greeks out, so I’ll offer bad deals, surely they’ll leave.”

“Hmmm, that didn’t work, I’ll offer a worse deal!”

“No!?  A terrible deal, then?”

“Ah, ha, finally, a NO vote in the referendum.”  (Rubs hands together with glee.)

“Now, an apocalyptically catastrophic deal on one hand, countered with a reasonably generous plan for support if they leave!”

“No? No!?”

So, Schauble, having realized that Greece will not leave no matter how terrible the deal inflicted on them, must now convince not Greeks, but other key European decision makers.

The third possibility is that a truly radical government takes over in Greece: Likely Fascists or Communists. Someone who actually says what they mean about austerity and will do whatever it takes to end it.

Remember, Hitler did turn the German economy around. Mussolini turned around the Italian one.

One can hope it will be a slightly nicer set of people, but we are definitely in a period where the “decent” people mostly don’t have the necessary courage to stand up for anything that matters; certainly not the courage to actually face down neo-liberalism.

This isn’t a joke post, though I wish it was. I want everyone to remember the rule of prosperity and rights.

You have exactly and only the rights and prosperity which are useful to your lords and masters or those you are able to secure from them with force or the credible threat of force.

Any rights or prosperity you have beyond that will always be taken away from you.

Always.

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Syriza Wins in Greece: What It Must Do

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On July 13, 2015

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(Given the way Greek financial negotiations have played out, I think my first take is timely/relevant, and have restored it to the top. Originally published in January. -Ian)

It would have been better if they won last time, Greece is pretty fully looted now. But Greeks thought they were Europeans, and didn’t realize the contempt that French and Germans had for them, nor how willing they were to kill and impoverish large numbers of them.

There is a great deal of hand-wringing in conventional circles over the Syriza win. They are worried about the Greeks exiting the Euro (Grexit) and defaulting on their debt.

Greece should do both of these things, or something close to it. (Rolling the debt over into 100 year bonds at 1 percent, for example.) Greek debt is at a level which is effectively impossible to pay off and has been made much, much worse by all the “aid packages” and “bailouts” given by their “fellow” Europeans. (a.k.a., they should have defaulted years ago.)

As for the Euro, Greece can’t print it, and Greece will need to print money.

I worry that Syriza is serious about negotiating on the debt. There is essentially no chance the Troika (well, really, Germany) will give them acceptable terms on a write-down. Negotiations should be intended only to go on long enough to demonstrate that a good deal is not possible. While they are ongoing, the Greeks should be preparing for Grexit and repatriating all the resources they can. Since Greek debt is under foreign law, debt vultures will go to the courts to seize all foreign Greek assets once Greece does default or restructure its debt.

Greece needs to recognize that it will effectively be a financial pariah, unable to access Western money markets. It will have almost no hard currency, and no ability to buy goods which require hard currency.

This is a huge problem for Greece because it has neither oil nor the ability to feed itself. Syriza MUST have a plan to deal with both these problems. Neither is insurmountable.

For oil, Greece will simply have to make a deal with Russia, Venezuela and/or Iran. Greece will be a pariah state just like them, and they have oil. What does Greece have to offer? Well, sub voce, access to Greece. Greece will be out of the Euro, but it will still have borders with Europe. Once whatever you want into Europe is in Greece, it’s easy enough to get it into Europe. And anything those countries want from Europe, the Greeks can obtain and ship to them. Grey market, baby, and grey market finance, as well.

In terms of food, a deal must be made with a food surplus nation. I would suggest Argentina, which has plenty of food. (This is incorrect, Greece can feed itself, Greeks will just have to eat less imported foods.-Ian)

Remember that Greece has one of the largest merchant marines in the world. It has that to trade, and it has access to Europe to trade.

In addition, currency controls must be put on immediately and the borders must be secured against those trying to move goods out of the country (a.k.a., Greece’s useless rich).

Given that all this will cause Greece to be completely loathed in Washington, London, Berlin, and Paris, they may also wish to consider seizing much of whatever means of production remain in the country. If they want a reason, simply use the Lagarde list of Greek oligarchs who haven’t paid their taxes, and seize their back taxes—with plenty of interest.

The media is playing this as an anti-austerity vote, and it is. But voting anti-austerity for a country like Greece, which can’t feed itself, has no oil, and doesn’t have a lot of industry, is one thing, not being austere is another. If the Greeks want a decent life again, they will have to take on some of the most powerful nations in the world and at least fight to a draw.

Many nations are in the same boat as Greece: Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Argentina. Greece needs to make the necessary alliances with such countries and it needs to align with the rising Chinese block.

Doing this requires a psychological step that many Greeks may be unwilling to take: A recognition that their interests do not lie with Europe and an understanding that Europeans are willing to see them impoverished, homeless and dead. Greeks who are living in the past and think the EU is about prosperity for everyone in the EU need to learn otherwise.

If the Greeks are unwilling to be coldly pragmatic and give up their illusions about who they are, what their fellow Europeans are willing to do to them, and what their actual assets are, then Syriza will fail, and Greece will continue on their path of impoverishment.

I wish the Greeks all the best.

(26/01/15 – There is some dispute over whether the Greeks can leave the Euro and not the EU.  See this paper for a discussion — pp 26-29.)

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Yet Another Deal

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On July 13, 2015

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So, Tsirpas has agreed on a deal. It includes 50 billion in collateral to be managed by a fund controlled by Juncker.

We’ll see if the Greek parliament will pass it.

I have yet to see a single indication that Syriza ever made the necessary moves to allow for an orderly Grexit, though the EU has. They went into this fight relying on the good will of, yes, their enemies. (That they did not realize they were negotiating with their enemies was their first mistake.)

This is yet another step necessary for the end of the neo-liberal era. A tragedy, cruel beyond any justification, but that’s rather the point. Westerners, not just the rest of the world, need to understand who they are ruled by, and that no one is immune to their cruelty.

The EU’s leaders, however, have most likely done what is in their personal self-interest. They are either the people who inflicted austerity, or the politicians who accepted it. Under no circumstances could it be shown that there was another choice with better outcomes. If so, they would be fools or criminals, having inflicted unnecessary pain.

I am particularly amused by the Finnish government’s ferocity towards Greece, since Finland, now that Nokia is dying and lumber prices are down, needs to devalue its currency. Being in the Euro, it cannot, and must instead suffer.

In time, everything the Finns value about their country’s social network will be sacrificed to stay in the Euro.

I don’t believe in people getting what they “deserve,” because we’d all be fools to want that. So let’s just say that the Gods enjoy using our most fervent desires to destroy us.

I’ll keep covering Greece as necessary, but the topic is beginning to become tedious. Horrible people doing horrible things to incompetent fools who refuse to resist, but simply lie there taking kick after kick to the nads while saying, “But we love you, we want to be one of you, do anything to us, so we can prove our devotion.”

I no longer have much preference for how this turns out. It is clear that, while Grexit would be preferable in principle, Tsipras and Syriza could not so much as manage a lemonade stand, let alone handle something as difficult as leaving the Euro under hostile fire and then rebuilding prosperity with Europe opposing them every step.

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