Category: Fund Raising Page 2 of 3

If you regularly read this blog you learn what you need to know before others do. Let’s run thru just a few, many are common knowledge now, but they weren’t when I wrote them.

1. That Covid was airborne. Everyone knows it now, but it was disputed by WHO when I asserted it.
2. That Covid becomes more dangerous each time you get it and that Long Covid is the thing to be scared of.
3. That schools were a primary vector for infection, long before authorities would admit it (most still don’t.)
4. That Russia would win the Ukraine war.
5. That Europe would be badly economically damaged by the Ukraine War and sanctions.
6. That China would win most from the Ukraine war, and that the US would benefit in some ways.
7. That most of inflation over the last few years was driven by pure market power jacking up prices.
8. That an age of war of revolution was soon to be upon us. (It has begun.)
9. That the IPC reports on climate change were vast understatements. (Said this long ago.)
10. That the political point of no return on climate change was reached long ago.
11. That the US would eventually lose dollar privilege due to abusing it. (Wrote the first article about that 20 years ago.)
12. That China would be the new strongest power (many years ago.)
13. That we would move to a two polar or multipolar world (everyone knows this now, but I wrote it years ago.)
14. That China would first take over manufacturing then take over the scientific lead (again, a very old prediction.)
15. For a couple decades I’ve noted that Israel was looking for a final solution for the Palestinian problem: ethnic cleansing ideally, but genocide was not out of the question.
16. Again, for a couple decades I’ve noted that the Israeli army was far weaker than it used to be in terms of competence: proven in the last month.
17. The decline of the UK would be faster and more serious than that of the EU.

And far more.

Of course I’ve gotten some important things wrong, but my hit/miss ratio is good.

A lot of what is written here isn’t predictive. I write about morals and ethics, or how to live the good life, or just lamentations of evil. There are also plenty of explainers of how things work now or have in the past, though I tend to do fewer of those than I once did.

Generally speaking, what you get by reading this site is more correct knowledge of the present and the future than any “reports” or think tanks I know of, and everyone can read for free: no multi-hundred or thousand dollar subscription gate.

That said, my work does need to be paid for because I need to eat and sleep in a warm place, and it’s paid for by people who donate or subscribe. Through their generosity, everyone is able to read. Because I have specific ethical views (rape is bad, Palestinians shouldn’t be treated like animals in a slaughtering pen) last year some saw some large donors depart for places where they could be told that clear evil is sometimes OK.

So, I’m asking my readers who can (if you would go hungry or forego health care or anything important because you give to me, don’t) to donate or subscribe (monthly subscriptions are very helpful but either is great.) You help me and you keep my writing available to everyone and I damn well appreciate it.

This years goal is $12,500. At that level I’ll write an article about the Middle Ages scholastic crisis, where the universities produces way too many people with degrees. This has some relevance to current circumstances and I’ve been eyeing writing it for years without quite committing.

But mostly, again, you are helping me and keeping my writing free and available to everyone.

Thank you, and again, if you are in financial trouble don’t give and I hope your circumstances improve (imagine a hug here. I know what poverty is like.)

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE TO IAN’S 2023 FUNDRAISER

(Afterword. If you had a subscription and think it’s still running, please check. When credit cards change, the subscription ends. I always let people know, but email messages don’t always get thru.)

We’ve raised approximately $8,400, when including the $2,300 from the emergency fundraiser earlier in 2022. That puts us past $6,500 and a summary article on the world’s position and prospects, and $1,600 from the $11,000 final goal and threshold for an article on reasons for hope. I’ll end the fundraiser sometime next week, whether we’ve achieved the goal or not.

Generally speaking, money simply tells me, like everyone, that what I do is valued and I should do more of it. As always, if you are in a position where money is short for essentials like food, housing or medical care, please don’t donate or subscribe.

But if you have some extra and you value my writing…

Donate or Subscribe To My 2022 Fundraiser

It’s been a tough year for the world and a tough year at Chez Ian (cancer, housing issues, blah.) Personally, I’m just beginning to recover from cancer treatment, though some of it will be ongoing, and sucking, for another six to twelve months. China, deciding to the right thing (Zero Covid) stupid, is now releasing some restrictions and that’s going to go badly. Russia invaded Ukraine, ground forward and will likely wind up with less than it’d like and more than the West wanted.

Europe has been the big loser in the Ukraine war, which many of us predicted, and is looking forward to a brrrrrr, and very expensive winter, hosting a few million more Ukrainian refugees and watching some of its most important industries move away, while in America they’re looking forward to receiving said industry and smiling happily about how the EU is now firmly in the US camp.

It’s been a busy and important year, and I have covered, ummm, some of it, and said some things that needed to be said.

So it’s fundraising time. I did an emergency fundraiser earlier in this year, and I’m grateful at how people helped me. About $2,300 was raised, so that’s where the fundraising total for the annual fundraiser starts, as the intention was never to raise more money, just to move it to where I needed it.

The goal this year is $11,000.

If we hit $6,500, I’ll write a big summary article on the world’s current position and outlook, and if we hit $11,000 I’ll write an article on reasons for hope for humanity’s future.

Most years I have more tiers than that, but I have articles left from last years fundraiser. They’ll get done, my word on it, and I’ll excuse myself by mumbling “ummm, cancer and radiation and so on”. I don’t want to add too much to the pile, but the articles above are the highest level summary articles I can write.

It’s also true that if you like my writing and want to see more of it, it’s donating or subscribing (like everyone I like subscriptions) that tells me “write more at the blog.”

My current plans for the blog include more articles about what can be done, along with more book reviews.

Anyway, it’s been a lousy year, but I hope it’s been a good one for you personally. As always, if your financial situation is such that you’re worried about your own necessities, please don’t give!

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE TO IAN’S 2022 FUNDRAISER

We reached all four goals, and I’m very grateful.

THANK YOU to all who donated or subscribed.

Those goals were:

1 – A longer article on the collapse of the USSR, putting everything I’m aware of together. In particular, I want to discuss the steps Gorbachev took which seem like either gross stupidity or intentional destruction. The fall of the Soviet Union was studied in great detail by the Chinese Communist Party, and has informed their actions since

2 – A summary of world system analysis as practiced mainly by Immanuel Wallerstein, with a look at what it means for the future. World system analysis takes capitalism as a world system, and looks at how it has re-ordered the entire relationship of nations, subordinating them to its needs, through about five centuries. We can see clearly that most countries today are not sovereign, but subject to the system as a whole, this is true to some extent even of the hegemonic power, the US. Wallerstein thinks this world system is played out, and we’ll look at why. (Wallerstein, like Randall Collins predicted the collapse of the USSR in advance, using his model, when almost all specialists in the USSR did not see it coming.)

3 – A longish look at the theory of revolutions: When do revolutions happen and why? This will draw on people like Randall Collins and Michael Mann. Most of what they have is based on the experience of agrarian empires, so I’ll try and extend it a bit to industrial nations, and also look at what it means for a world system to collapse. World systems prior to capitalism didn’t include the entire world (and capitalism didn’t till the mid-19th century), so we can see what happened, for example, when the Roman Empire collapsed.

4 – An essay on the effect of computer and telecom technology on humanity. Neil Postman, in Technopoly, back in the 1990s predicted it would be bad for most people, and I would argue it has or will be, but we’ll take a look at the ups and downs, the affects on economics, geopolitics, and daily life. As with writing, printing, and firearms, the early results may not be the same as those in the longer term, so we’ll try and figure out some of those.

I’m going to leave the fundraiser open until the first of January, but we’ve made all the tiers.

THANK YOU.

I am immensely grateful, especially given how hard things were this year.

The final tier, which I didn’t think we’d make, was:

An essay on the effects of computer and telecom technology on humanity. Back in the 1990s, in his book Technopoly, Neil Postman predicted it would be bad for most people. I would argue it has, or will be, but we’ll take a look at the ups and downs, the effects on economics, geopolitics, and daily life. As with the advent of writing, printing, and firearms, the early results may not be the same as those in the longer term, so we’ll try and figure out some of those.

I look forward to writing it. Postman had an interesting, analytical framework for technology use, and how it controls social options which could easily be expanded beyond technology, as well.

The problem we have today is that even when I see things that could be good (if used well), I know that our society will abuse them. For example, there’s now an experimental vaccine which blocks some opiates. Could be useful to help addicts, but of course it will be forced on some people who don’t want it, especially in prisons, and by police and some mental hospitals and doctors. This will both leave people who need pain relief in agony and put some addicts into horrible withdrawals without their consent.

That’s just who we are, it seems: We can’t be trusted with any sort of power, technological or otherwise, because we will horribly abuse it.

Is that a permanent feature of humanity, or something we can overcome?

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