Our benefactor writes:
States must reconcile their data on Thursdays and Fridays, when we typically get our highest numbers. NY is now down to 12 percent of the total new cases. They started out at over 50 percent. The rest of the country can stop blaming NY.
At the current doubling rate, we will be at 140,000 deaths by the end of May. Positively genocidal.
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We’ve crossed 70,000 deaths. The spate of re-openings will likely lead to an increase of new cases and deaths over the next month. This is forecast by US leadership, even as they proceed. Those of us in sane states should proceed with extreme caution.I ran the numbers on the states to compare consecutive seven-day averages using the color coding similar to the linked map. Two more states, PA and MI, have moved into the decreasing categories (light and dark teal) just in the last two days. Don’t believe Arkansas’ numbers for a minute. They are one of the most retrograde states in the US, and it would not be surprising if they were cooking their numbers. Four more states, LA, OR, AL, and CA have moved into the worsening categories (light and dark brown), CA significantly.
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So, multiple states are moving to reopen, despite not having crushed their curves.
In about two weeks after reopening, the effects will show up as new cases, and in about four weeks, as deaths.
As I suggested April 21st, this means that states which have dealt, or are dealing, with Covid responsibly will have to move to border controls, limiting access to those from states which have chosen to simply let people die. I expect this will mean using state police and calling up the National Guard.
There is simply no way the current policy mix in the US allows for sub 200K deaths this year, and half a million by fall is likely. It is not possible to reopen before crushing the curve, and, once you’ve reopened, you need sufficient testing, tracking, and quarantine, which the US does not have.
Other countries should close or keep closed their borders against US visitors, as well.
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The pandemic has left a lot of children at home when they would usually be at school, with their parents having to care for them all day.
My parents were alcoholics who loved to argue. Being stuck at home with them would have been hell. But I remember many other children’s parents can think of nothing better, where I imagine it would have been the greatest thing ever.
This is probably the longest stretch of time you will spend with your school age children in their entire lives–and children don’t tend to remember much of the pre-school years.
How they remember this period is likely to define their entire childhood relationship with you. You can view it as a trial and an imposition, as I see so many parents doing, or you can view it as something great; a chance you otherwise wouldn’t have to be with them and to enjoy each other’s company.
I gently suggest you do the latter.
Caring for kids can be a drag and frustrating, I get that, but emphasizing the good parts to yourself will make this period far better for you and for them, and will create a future relationship you treasure.
You don’t want them looking back at when when they spent the most time with you and hating the memory or knowing that you didn’t like being with them. You do want them to remember it as awesome.
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Our benefactor writes:
As in past weeks, Sunday numbers are down. Some interesting new data in the NY Times from a study of seven states, indicating that deaths since the start of the pandemic are actually 50 percent higher than the norm when compared to what is accounted for by coronavirus deaths. See, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html. The seven states include New York, which has already restated its counts and is much closer to the expected number. So…not only are actual cases being severely under-counted, but deaths are being under-counted, too.There are other implications, here, too, referenced in the article. Not all increases in deaths are directly attributable to coronavirus, but may be impacted by the social response. People don’t go to the hospital as readily for chest pain and end up dying at home from a heart attack. Fewer accidents on the road or even in the street might mean the death rate is even higher. In some horrific way, this appears to be strategic, not in a planned, conspiratorial way, but simply to minimize the danger, and to reduce government accountability for failures to act. No other states that we know of have restated deaths to account for the spike in death rates.
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Numbers are slowly declining, but the re-openings that are happening are foolish and premature.
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A little delayed, but here it is.
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Our benefactor writes:
Well, we crossed the symbolic threshold of 60,000 deaths before May 1. I’m not sure why it is symbolic, other than that earlier predictions were 60,000 deaths by the end of August. People are beginning to realize that this is an enduring pandemic and preparing themselves for the long haul. It’s going to be a huge challenge for the world. From what I understand, this is not quickly dissipating.
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