Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: health care Page 12 of 35

American and Sending Your Children Back To School In September? Bad Idea

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On August 3, 2020

74 Comments

OK, full argument incoming, but for the folks who only read the first paragraph: if you’re American outside of a very few Northeastern states and  can avoid sending your children back to school without going to jail, you probably shouldn’t.

Recently, in a 3 day summer overnight camp, 44% of attendees got Covid-19. They didn’t do everything perfectly: staff wore masks, students didn’t, and they didn’t leave doors and windows open to ventilate cabins.

The attack rate was 44% in just 3 days. Forty-four percent got the virus.

Now schools aren’t as bad as overnight camps. However, we can assume that mask compliance will be less than perfect, especially with younger children. Seven or so hours a day are spent inside, with bad ventilation.

And children will be there for months, day after day.

Now, the US Covid map for today, August 3rd, at 1 AM.

If you send your kids back to school in most of these states (there will not be a turnaround by September), there is very good chance they will get it. It may not kill them, though it may give them problems for the rest of their lives, but they will bring it home. You, not being young, then stand a good chance of getting it and dying. If you don’t die, there is reason to believe many people suffer permanent health issues from it, even if they live.

Then, of course, there are cases like this.

Grandparents? Prime death chance.

This isn’t just about killing kids, it’s about killing parents, teachers and grandparents.

This is either sheerest insanity (if you think elites are completely clueless) or a deliberate measure meant to kill hundreds of thousands more Americans.

Anyway, I know there are laws, and you should look into them. But I’d think twice before sending my kids back to school under these circumstances. Maybe you’ll dodge the bullet, but you may not, and a lot of people won’t.

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The Weirdness of “Coronavirus” Hacking

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On July 22, 2020

22 Comments

We now have two cases of the US claiming that hackers have gone after US Coronavirus vaccine data — first the Russians, then the Chinese.

The Chinese hacking claim is packaged up with a slew of other allegations, mostly about hacking “intellectual property,” which is to say ideas. The US has spent much of the last 50 years making IP laws last longer and more strenuous. Ideas, which is what IP laws cover, are not diminished if more than one person uses them. They aren’t like lawnmowers. I can’t use my lawnmower while you are using it, but I can use my idea of the printing press while you are using my idea of the printing press.

When the United States was the rising power, it routinely violated IP law, primarily British and German IP law. Now that it is the falling power, it seeks to extract as much as it can from its IP.

Perhaps the problem is that IP law isn’t old enough? If the Chinese could charge everyone using gunpowder and printing presses, a lot of nonsense might get sorted out quickly.

But fundamentally, this is a matter of power: An old power wanting to extract fees and rent from a new power. There is no great moral argument here, because, no, it isn’t about artists and authors or inventors, this is about big companies and big countries and the way IP law is set up clearly strangles innovation rather than encouraging it.

The idea of Covid-19 vaccine hacking is particularly ludicrous and insane. Any vaccine for an epidemic must belong to all of humanity. There is no public interest case of any significance in silo-ing vaccine data. Perhaps some US companies want to “win” the vaccine race and then charge as much as possible for a vaccine.

That’s monstrous and stupid on public welfare terms. Vaccines need to be had by virtually everyone, and thus need to be cheap and easily available.

Every country’s hackers should hack all vaccine info if the idea is that some country or company can own vaccine info and profit from it.

The larger truth is simple: The US has draconian IP laws which it has used its muscle to force other countries to take on, generally against their interests. Some of those countries do hack IP. This is to be expected. Making a huge deal out of it is a move in great power politics, where important forces in the US (with the UK now joining) want to divide the world into two power blocs and have a new cold war.

But even if in a 1950s style cold war of “Freedom” vs. “Equality,” there is no argument from principle for not sharing a vaccine or vaccine data.

Imagine the horror of everyone being vaccinated.

What a tragedy.

It’s all very silly, as we know that the people who will pay the most for any vaccine, if any country chooses to gouge, will be Americans.

Americans don’t need to worry about China or Russia. They need to worry about their own politicians and corporate leaders.

Those are the people primarily responsible for killing and impoverishing Americans.

Anyone who thinks otherwise is either part of the killing for money, or a fool.

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America’s Elites Live by the Rule of Power (Covid Version)

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On July 7, 2020

22 Comments

There’s no question that the US response to Covid-19 has been awful.

So, is it just that American elites are incompetent?

Well, as of the end of April:

The total amount of wealth controlled by US billionaires’ swelled by more than $565 billion since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis.

So, why would America’s richest want to handle Covid well? Small businesses being closed is an advantage to billionaires, who control the large businesses that keep going and take over market share.

And while we don’t have figures for the top three percent or so, I’m willing to bet they are doing better as well. Plus they get to work from home and have everything delivered to their doorstep while stocking their industrial fridges with ice-cream. It’s hard for them. Honest.

Now, there’s a core point here that is important: If you are American, you cannot count on your leadership, of any variety, to look after you. You cannot even count on them to be neutral. If there is a way for them to benefit, including benefit to the people who own them (most politicians are owned in the US, and if you do not believe this you are pathetically naive), they will hurt or impoverish or kill you.

Little matters to your elites except the well-being of themselves and their close associates. To the extent they have an ideology, their ideology tells them it is right for the strong to take from the weak, and that everything they have they deserve, while those who lose deserve to lose. This is true of Republicans, but it is as true of most Democrats. Oh, they’ll give a little bit of pity money, but they won’t stop the processes in place that destroy lives and kill people. Indeed, they speed those processes on–as Pelosi and Biden have throughout their career.

When you are making your planning you must take this into account. Power companies won’t clear brush or replace infrastructure they know will lead to massive wildfires (PGE in California) because they have executive bonuses to pay. Executives of pharma companies will raise prices on life saving drugs they didn’t even research like insulin. Developers and landlords will hold properties off the market to keep prices up, and will force long term tenants out so they can raise rents.

There is little of consequence that people with power in America will not do to those without power.

The rule of power, as composed by Thucydides twenty-five hundred years ago, is as follows:

The Powerful Do As They Will: The Weak Suffer As They Must

Most social progress can be defined as creating norms and institutions which reduce that truth. American elites have spent the last 40 years returning it to dominance, with a plurality to bare majority of American voters complicit. Fools in the middle class thought that helped both them and the rich would keep helping them. But what helped them 5% a year helped the rich 20% a year, and soon the rich took off, decided they didn’t need the middle class (they can do the same work for less) and started liquidating them. During OK times, a percentage point every couple years: during crises, far more.

(Trump’s numbers actually show the middle class more than the poor drove his rise, because they were scared and went with someone who sounded different. Though some poor did the same. But Trump is VERY late stage in this process.)

If you are to survive this era, let along prosper, you must understand this in your bones: emotionally. America’s elites, business and political and ideological (media), are your enemies, committed to eating the poor and middle class (who get eaten all the time, metaphorically. “Eat the rich” is an aspirational goal, not a reality.) When you make your personal life plans, understand this. You must be useful to the rich to prosper and the second they do not need you, they will discard you. This goes even for many elite lackeys (see what has happened to media jobs, and they were on their knees fellating their masters even as the axe fell.)

If you wish to oppose the rich you must also understand this. There is no making peace with this elite, they may occasionally throw you a bone to disperse you, but their overall ethos will not change. Nothing short of replacing them with an entirely new ruling class and structure will work. If you have not done so, if you have not destroyed the rules that run this particular America and world; if you have not replaced the actual people, then you have not won the war, you have just been given some scraps to placate you and make you stand down whatever alliance you have built.

It’s you, or it’s the rich and their lackeys. It is that simple.

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The Coming Homelessness and Hunger Apocalypse in America

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On July 6, 2020

22 Comments

So, in June 30 percent of Americans couldn’t make their rent. July 25th, federal eviction protection ends. There may be another check, but another $1,200 (or even $2k) isn’t going to cut it, just as people couldn’t pay rent event with the $600 unemployment benefit top-up.

Covid now has more active cases than the previous peak. Less people are dying, because the new victims are mostly young (and due to the lag) but even non-fatal cases of Covid are nasty and can leave the victim with symptoms for months (or longer, we don’t know yet). Indeed, evidence is coming back that cases with no symptoms still do damage.

Even if there is an extension of eviction protection and some new checks, that will only push the problem back. People can’t make rent, and aren’t going to be able to. Because there are so many people competing for jobs (which are bouncing back somewhat), they have no wage leverage.

So, expect a huge wave of evictions, homelessness, and hunger. Food banks will be overwhelmed, people will go hungry.

Your lords and masters have decided that if you aren’t useful to them (aren’t employed, can’t make rent) that you don’t deserve anything, including life. This has been the case for a long time, it’s just that, in the middle of a pandemic, they see a lot of you as useless eaters towards whom they have no responsibility.

Besides, why should they care? Billionaires have actually gained wealth during the pandemic. Covid isn’t much of a problem for the rich, it’s mostly an opportunity.

Be aware, in your personal life, that this is coming down the stream. It is not going to be stopped. If there is an extension of the moratorium and a bit more benefits AND the economy continues to reopen (already being reversed in some states) then that might mitigate the homelessness somewhat, but will result in more deaths and long-term health problems from Covid.

This is going to lead to more, not less, riots. You should be ready for that, and for the possibility of civil disorder causing infrastructure and logistics problems. Stock up, have plans to shelter in place, and also to leave. Keep your head down. Make sure you are on good terms with your neighbours, friends, and so on. When shit really goes bad, the people who do okay are those other people care about.

I really hope I’m wrong about this, but the numbers on this are staggering. Assume that even five percent of Americans lost their housing over two months, that would be almost 17 million people. Each doubling is another 17 million. A ten percent loss is 34 million.

If anything like that happens, I cannot see how it does not turn into mass hunger and civil disorder.

Be prepared.

And if you are one of those who will be homeless, my genuine and true sympathy.

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As The Next Wave Of Covid Hits

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On June 22, 2020

66 Comments

And so, what has happened is that the (mostly) blue states which got hit hard at the start got Covid-19 numbers down (in a fumbling, incompetent and delayed fashion which cost tens of thousands of lives.) Meanwhile other states reopened early or never properly closed and a new wave is hitting.

On April 21st I wrote:

So, right now we have five states in the US that never bothered to self-isolate.

We have the Governor of Georgia announcing he will allow gyms, barbers, and fitness clubs, among others, to reopen on the 24th.

We have the Governor of Florida reopening Florida’s beaches. Good thing Florida doesn’t have a lot of old people!

There are astroturf protests asking for an end to isolation. “Let us die, let us die, let us DIE!” (Also, let us kill others.)

Then on May 11th:

So, the numbers seem to be in decline, and there will be removal of restrictions, and then the numbers will start increasing again in two to six weeks. Because infection rates will be moving off a larger base, they will create a second wave where people start dropping like flies–much larger than the first wave.

Well, that’s where we are now. Enjoy. Multiple states, including Florida (always obviously going to be a problem) have increasing numbers and no sign they intend to reimpose social distancing, let alone track and trace and mandatory mask use.

This is going to go on and on and on, made worse by the fact that the Federal Reserve and Congress have chosen to bail out the rich and give peanuts to everyone else. Riots and protests will continue, because why not? People don’t have enough money, are going to lose their housing, the jobs to go back to don’t exist. Provocations which before were barely tolerable now set off firestorms.

The rich don’t care: they were scared at first, because a lot of them got infected in the first wave. Rich people have a lot of social contacts and travel a lot, BUT now that they know there’s a problem, they can self-isolate and protect themselves, and if they do get sick they receive the best care. Most poor people can’t self-isolate: they live in group housing, their jobs are often physical and usually put them around other people.

So there’s little incentive for Covid-19 to be handled properly: the rich are fine and pretty much safe, they just have to stay home a lot, in their big houses and multi-bedroom condominiums. They’re fine financially. What happens to other Americans is of little concern to them, so why not make them go back to work?

Something like a quarter to a third of small businesses are likely to be destroyed by this crisis. Whatever’s worth buying will be bought up for cents on the dollar by the rich, and they’ll consolidate further control over US real-estate.

Crises are good if you have cash money, and the rich are salivating. Let this drag out, let them take further advantage.

So, the second wave is starting.

If those states which did, in their fumbling and laggardly way, manage to reduce numbers want to keep those numbers down, they will need to find a way to close their borders to all non-essential visitors from out of state. That’s probably unconstitutional, but do it anyway to buy time while it winds thru the courts.

As for everyone else, just know that the second wave is here: it’s a second wave in states other than the ones that were hit hardest the first time BUT it will mean that no states will be able to actually eliminate Covid, because there will be out of state people constantly re-spreading the disease.

It’s going to be a long hot summer and autumn won’t be any better.

Understand that this is a chosen fiasco. All that was required was reasonable subsidies, a moratorium on rent, mortgage and other loan payments, track and trace, mandatory masks and shelter in place orders.

Once your lords and masters realized they were mostly safe, they stopped caring about the crisis. Some states dealt with it acceptably, but on a national level, this is a totally forseeable, and thus essentially planned clusterfuck.

Sorry if you lost or lose people you care about. Or even people you don’t know, but since you aren’t a sociopath, think shouldn’t die.

It’s you, or your elites. Until you remove them from power, by whatever means necessary, they will kill you and let you die whenever it is convenient to them, or just inconvenient to keep you around. (You may have thought it was only brown foreigners like Iraqis they were willing to kill hundreds of thousands of. Wrong.)

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June 5th US Covid Data (Final!)

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On June 7, 2020

7 Comments

As the country reopens, our benefactor has other work to occupy them, so this will be the last Covid-19 data post. Of course, I’ll keep a weather eye on Covid in the US and write if anything significant happens, including a change in trend.

The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

June 3rd and 4th US Covid Data

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On June 5, 2020

16 Comments

Our benefactor writes:

This is called the Memorial Day effect at the moment. The NYTimes, in my morning news feed, refers to the holding of new cases at about 20k on average as a good thing because of increased testing, an assertion that is not made in the actual referenced article. To quote, ” But the actual trend may be more encouraging. The number of tests being conducted has been rising rapidly in recent weeks — which means more virus cases are being uncovered than otherwise would have been.” This is the article.

My secondary source, The Guardian, was using Johns Hopkins data, but they seem to have ceased updating for more than 24 hours. I’ve switched to Johns Hopkins source data. Their data does not include U.S. territories, so it’s cleaner anyway. We’ve had lengthy power outages in the Philly region due to storms.

The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

June 2nd US Covid Stats

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On June 3, 2020

14 Comments

Our benefactor writes:

Even with the suspension of testing in many locations, COVID-19 persists. Maybe the thinking is that we could just ignore it, and it would go away. It’s nice to see many protesters fully masked.

You’ll notice that the charts haven’t declined that much. With relaxation on restrictions, there’s no reason to believe they will, though I suppose testing less may give the illusion they have.

The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

 

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