And the cases and deaths just keep piling up.


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And the cases and deaths just keep piling up.


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Our benefactor writes:
My prediction is that we will have three million cases and 200 thousand deaths by late July or early August, with occasional spikes and local hot spots. It will become the new normal and will continue through the fall. There may be a spike, but not because of most of the big cities. NOLA has opened restaurants at 25 percent capacity, but that is a really tough arrangement. Most conventions and conferences will be and have already been cancelled through the end of the year. Las Vegas will remain at 25 percent capacity into 2021. This is the new 25 percent economy and a recipe for more unrest.


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There is a slight worsening in the rate of new cases. Given the fact that Covid-19 takes time to kill, that will not show yet in the data.


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And, we have officially passed 100K deaths in the 50 states.


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Our benefactor writes
Lots of headlines that we have reached 100,000 cases. Not if you don’t include Guam, Virgin Islands, and American Samoa. Our announcement will be tomorrow. It’s an awful milestone. I expected the mortality rate to start dropping dramatically, given the increases in testing, but that’s not yet happening.


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Our benefactor notes that the US should hit 100K deaths on Thursday or Friday.


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Our benefactor writes:
There’s been quite a drop in the number of deaths, likely due to the holiday weekend. Lots of big states (e.g. TX, KS, NE, KY) not reporting any deaths. They give health officials time off, too.


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Our benefactor notes that the seven day average is still going up. We’ll see if it continues. Remember that many states are essentially allowing uncontrolled spread. States that are serious about controlling this are going to have to put in border controls.


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