The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: How to think

Tax Increases on the Rich

are not going pass. Period. Obama is doing this so he can look like a liberal, because he knows it won’t pass. If he wanted this sort of policy, he needed to do it in his first few months.  He didn’t and he doesn’t, this is re-election positioning. If you are treating it as anything else, you are being played.

Oh, and while I approve of the “Wall Street Occupation” it isn’t going to do a damn thing unless it costs Wall Street large amounts of money.  Which would require different tactics than are being used.  Still, it’s a start.

Hard and Complicated Aren’t Synonyms

The chart above is my second favourite chart. It’s a chart of per capita health expenditures over the last forty odd years and what I want you to look at is Canada and the US. You’ll see that at one point Canada actually spent more per capita than the US, then over less than a decade our costs dived to about 2/3rds of yours and then started paralleling your costs again.

What happened in that time period is that we went to single payor universal health care. Since then our metrics have been as good, or better than the US, with the exception of waiting times for optional surgery.

Now this isn’t actually a post about healthcare, it’s about language.

Specifically I’m sick of the idea that “the US doesn’t have any simple problems.”

Actually, many of the US’s problems are simple, and health care is just one of them.

The problem is the use of simple as a synonym for easy; and hard as a synonym for complicated.

See, stopping smoking isn’t complicated. All you have to do is… not smoke. But it’s hard as dickens, which is why so many people fail to do it.

Now a lot of US problems are like this and health care is one of them. The US spends about 16% of its GDP on healthcare, clocking in at 2 trillion. Changing to a single payor universal system will slash about a third of that. Savings: about 650 billion dollars. Everyone knows this who isn’t paid not to know it – every other country in the world that has universal health care pays about a 1/3 or less than the US and when Canada switched, its costs dropped by a third.

This isn’t complicated. But it is hard. It’s hard for the same reason that quitting smoking is hard, or that losing weight is hard – that 650 billion dollars extra is something the US is addicted to. That money pays for jobs and profits at insurers, drug companies and to hospitals and to some doctors.

That’s a lot of money, and the people who are currently making a living, or a huge profit from it, don’t want to lose it. So they’ll fight tooth and nail to not end the gravy train. The 20% to 30% administrative margins in health insurance companies as opposed to the 2% to 3% margins in Medicare are money that someone is getting. The price is that 50% of bankruptcies are caused by medical costs; that 43 million Americans are unemployed and that American companies like Ford and GM have huge medical costs that companies like Toyota don’t have.

So it’s not complicated to fix US healthcare – just go to comprehensive healthcare, probably modeled after France or Germany (who do as well or better on practically every metric), and voila – no more uninsured, much fewer bankruptcies, improved competitiveness and 650 billion dollars in profit and administrative costs that could actually be used for productive enterprise. Hard, because a lot of people make a lot of money from the status quo. But not complicated.

The US has a lot of problems like this. The debt and the deficit can be fixed by simply increasing tax rates and closing loopholes. Raise marginal rates on the rich, who can definitely afford it, end preferences for unearned income (which is taxed at half or less the rate of your paycheck) and make it so that corporations and people are taxed at the highest applicable tax rate on all their income so they can’t try and hide some of it overseas and get a lower rate, and you’d be back on track.

Or – to put it even more simply, don’t spend more than you bring in. It’s simple, and the Bush administration, after the Clinton administration had put the budget back on track, simply decided to max out the credit cards to give the rich tax breaks.

Social Security – simply get rid of the cap on contributions at 100,000 and it’ll be in the black. Heck, even without doing that it’ll be decades before it can’t pay. This one isn’t even simple, it’s just “there is no problem”.

Prison Incarceration – the US has more people per capita in jail than any other nation, edging out Russia back at the turn of the century. This is largely a result of draconian anti-drug laws, yet drug consumption hasn’t gone down, indeed, quite the contrary. When you do something for 30+ years and it doesn’t work, the answer isn’t to do it harder, the answer is to stop doing it. Get rid of mandatory sentencing requirements, 3 strikes laws and stop putting people away for possession of any but the worst drugs. Legalize marijuana. Legalize most opiates. Legalize mild forms of coca so people can get their kick without crack or cocaine. The prison population will drop, drug use won’t go up significantly, and the steady assault on your civil liberties will slow down (the war on terror was just the war on drugs on crack, really.)

One could go on like this for quite a while, including in foreign policy (stop supporting authoritarian regimes because you’re scared of regimes with popular support) and economics (restructure the economy so that making things makes more money than playing securities games) and education (don’t tie school money to property taxes). The solutions in many cases are clear and they aren’t complicated. But they are hard because many people benefit from the way things are done now. But one shouldn’t confuse hard and complicated and one shouldn’t think that just because someone is mainlining pork today they have a right to mainline pork forever.

(One also shouldn’t confuse logistically complicated with conceptually complicated.  We live in a society which is very very good at logistics.  Walmart, FedEx, UPS, the US military and many other organizations are logistical wizzes.)

When I look at America what I see isn’t a nation with problems it can’t solve, instead what I see is a nation with problems it won’t solve and what I see is a lot of people to whom the status quo is really good (including most Congresscritters) who try and sell Americans that there’s nothing they can do.

Politics is about fixing problems. Anyone who tells you that simple problems are complicated and can’t be solved, but only managed, needs to be kicked out of office. Because the one thing I’ll tell you is this – problems you don’t actually try to fix, don’t get fixed. Losing weight is hard, but if you never try, you’ll never succeed.

Cutting health insurance companies and drug companies off the gravy train will be hard. But if you don’t do it, you’ll never have good universal healthcare.

Your choice really. America has everything it needs, still, to choose life and a renewal of the American dream. But I wonder if it will, or can. Every great nation has its period in the sun come to an end, and in almost every case, it’s internal rot that brings them down. America has renewed itself in the past, does it have the guts and the integrity left to renew itself one more time?

(This is a re-post of a post originally published May 14, 2007. Some minor changes have been made.)

The monopoly of violence and simple solutions to supposedly insoluble problems

One of the interesting things happening in Britain is the formation of ad-hoc groups for neighbourhood defense.  People have noticed that the police can’t defend them, and have decided to defend themselves.

This it is not a good thing for the State, which is why the police are strongly against it.  This is potentially the beginning of the breakdown of the monopoly of state violence, and the beginning of the creation of militias.  Normally, of course, I’d be aghast at the creation of militias.  They lead to nasty sectarian strife, etc… and if they take off, that’s exactly what will happen.

But what they also are is a crack in the social contract between state and citizens, an acknowledgement that the State can’t defend its own ordinary people.  And as you walk down this path, citizens start questioning their support for the State, period — whether in taxes, or in obedience to the State’s law.

Normally, again, this is a bad thing.  Heck it’s a bad thing here, but just as with the riots it is a natural reaction to the current situation.  When the State doesn’t do its job properly, whether that’s running the economy for everyone’s benefit, not just a few; or whether that’s maintaining the basic monopoly of violence (which includes basic social welfare so that the designated losers of the system don’t resort to uncontrollable violence), people start opting out.

States which don’t perform their basic functions become failed states.  There are a lot of ways to get there, but one of them is to allow the highest inequality in the developed world to exist in your capital (sound familiar?).  Those people lash out, you can’t repress them effectively anymore, others step up to do what should be your job.

Those who say there is no solution are, as usual, full of it.  There is a solution, and it is obvious.  Britain had plenty of money for the Iraq War, had and has plenty of money for Banker salaries and a housing bubble.  A chunk of that money could have easily made sure this didn’t happen, but the choice was made to have rich bankers and bomb Muslims: those were Britain’s priorities.

But if you wanted to fix it, first you clamp down hard (you now have no choice, because you didn’t care about these people), then you offer them a future.  You basically give everyone who wants a job, a job, put ex (or current) sergeants and corporals in charge, move any non-married men and women out of the city, and put them to work fixing and building things. There are always roads and buildings to be repaired, ditches to be dug, farmers who need help and so on.   You hire out of work tradesmen, and they teach them skills.  You pay them decently, you feed them, you house them, you give them skills.  After 4 or 5 years, you start putting them back into the private work force, and you subsidize their first job.

This isn’t rocket science, it is dead obvious.  Yes, it is expensive, but it is less expensive than the Iraq War or bankers bonuses.  And it is a hundred times more humane, and will prevent further occurrences while improving race relations, your economy, your tax base and you workforce.

When people say there are no simple solutions they are, in the current context, almost always full of shit.  What they mean is that there are no simple solutions which are socially acceptable either to the governing class or to society as a whole.

The bloody obviousness of most good predictions

Back when I was in university, one day I found myself in a first year sociology class with a 150 odd other students.  The Prof, a wonderful teacher who went by Dr. Anderson, and to whose door I once tacked a list of 15 intellectual disagreements, asked the class a simple question.

“How many of you treat men and women exactly the same?  Put up your hands if you do.”

Everyone’s hands went up.  Everyone except mine, that is.

She then asked how many people didn’t treat men and women the same.

I put up my hand.

I spent the next 15 minutes being villified by my classmates, called sexist and even a homophobe (I’ve never figured out how we got to homophobia.)  I was livid, and by the end of it incredulous.

After the class I talked to her.  First I asked if she believed that all my classmates treated men and women the same.  She scoffed at the idea.  Then I asked “are they stupid, or are they all liars?”

She declined to speculate.

It’s a question which has consumed me since.  Are people who are unable to see the blindingly obvious stupid or are they liars?  Of course, there are more possible answers, and the simplest is just that people can make themselves believe whatever they want, and that belief is often real.  Sometimes it isn’t, sometimes they’re liars, which we normally call being a hypocrite.

And the smarter someone is the easier it is to convince themselves of whatever they want to believe.  Being really smart means always being able to come up with a reason why you’re right.

Most of my analytical and predictive successes have been of the “this is bloody obvious” variety.  A commenter said the other day that predicting that Dems would take losses in 2010 was an obvious prediction, but in early 2009 most of the rest of the progressive blogosphere was busy telling themselves and everyone else that the Republicans were such a disaster that at worst losses would be mild and Dems might even make gains.

Likewise, the housing bubble was obvious way out.  All you had to do was look at a chart.  It didn’t take being a genius economist (which I’m not).  It didn’t take fancy math.  All it took was the ability to say “hey, that looks exactly like a bubble, and all bubbles burst”.  All you had to do was listen for the fools saying “it’s different this time”.

It’s almost never different this time.  Human nature does not change.  Things which didn’t work in the past are unlikely to work now.  Incompetent people, which is to say people with a track record of screwing up, are not likely to suddenly become competent.  And if you can’t imagine what it’s like to be someone you despise, you can’t predict what they’ll do.

Most of my predictions are pretty close to “virtually everyone comes to regret trying to occupy Afghanistan” or “if Obama fucks up the economy and pisses off the base, and he’s going to do both because he just fucked up the stimulus on both ideological and practical axes, Democrats won’t do well in 2010”.  And most of my analysis is of the order of “people treat men and women differently.”

The sad thing is, apparently the vast majority of pundits can’t figure out either of these things.  Or if they can, they’re too compromised, and too chicken-hearted, to dare say them.

Analysis isn’t complicated.  It’s not even hard.

Well, it’s not hard as long as you don’t give a fuck if, like every mainstream pundit who opposed the Iraq war due to either realizing there were no WMD or because they knew it would turn into a clusterfuck, you’re ok with losing your job or being demoted, while those who get it wrong are promoted and rewarded.

As long as you don’t mind, like my younger self, being told you’re a bad person for saying the truth that others don’t want to hear.

Perhaps the strange thing is that anyone is fool enough to even try.  Perhaps my classmates were the wise ones and I the fool.

Obsession: Geniuses, Generalists and Specialists

Genius isn’t the same thing as intelligence, there are plenty of intelligent mediocrities. The highest IQ on record (and yes, IQ is not everything, but it measures something important as well) is that of Vos Savant (Marilyn Jarvik). To the best of my knowledge she has no significant body of work in any field, nor any great accomplishments. Yet she is, unquestionably, so much smarter than someone like Napoleon that there is no comparison. Indeed even most composers and theoretical scientists have IQs that pale in comparison.

Intelligence is one factor in genius, and it is generally necessary to be highly intelligent to be a genius. But it is not sufficient. Instead, genius is about obsession. It takes, on average, about 10 years of dedicated study to master a field. This has nothing to do with formal education – some people learn at school, just as many great geniuses have not. The time can be reduced by high intelligence, but not as much as one might think.

Operating at the highest levels is about integrative complexity, and what Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi has called Flow. Flow is the state where you are operating at the edge of your ability – where your mind can just barely handle whatever you are doing (or rather, thinking) at the moment. In such a state the outside world fades out, time stretches or contracts so that hours pass as instants, and thought and action become the same thing.

There are many ways to achieve flow – meditation is one way of systemizing flow so that you can achieve it at will, and so are many of the techniques that are considered to lead to enlightenment in many traditions. However for most people flow occurs when their abilities are precisely matched to the challenge they are facing.

Which brings us to integrative complexity. Integrative complexity is simply a measure of how much information you can hold in your head at one given time. The ability to hold a complicated argument in your head all at one time, with all its caveats and arguments, is an example of integrative complexity. Historical psychologists measure integrative complexity by reading the speeches and writing of historical figures and noting the number of clauses and caveats routinely used. Figures can move up and down the scale – for example, revolutionaries need to speak with low integrative complexity while revolutionaries, but successful rulers need high integrative complexity to actually run the state. A good case in point is Castro. During his time as a revolutionary his integrative complexity was very low, but once he was in power it rose significantly. Revolutionaries unable to make the shift up tend not to last once the revolution is won (Trotsky, as compared to Lenin, for example.)

Thinking or performing in any field is a skill. All skills operate in essentially the same way. When you first perform a skill you have to use your raw processing power (which, even for a genius, is very small). You have to think about what you’re doing. As you practice with the skill things you once had to think about become automatic and you are able to use those components automatically, while adding in other components. As such your ability to think or perform moves up the scale. In the physical arts an example would be learning a basic stance in martial arts – until you learn that stance, you can’t add a kick or an evasion, or even a movement within a stance. Once you add it, you can add a specific movement. Over time those movements become part of one thing or become an easily used language, and you can shift easily from one to another. This is the style of learning used in traditional Japanese arts, where, for example, an archery student might spend months doing nothing by draw his bow, never ever shooting an arrow, or where a traditional butcher would spend months practicing his grip, then months making only a few different cuts, on a specific type of meat. By the end of the process the archer always pulls the string correctly (and even this is made up of multiple parts, including breathing) and the butcher never holds a knife incorrectly, nor uses an incorrect knife.

But even if not formalized, this is how you get better at pretty much everything – you take the small and learn to do it automatically, and then you lump it into the big. In intellectual traditions part of this occurs when you learn specialized language. When I say “Externalization of costs in the food industry is health pollution” I’m saying something that would take a few essays to explain properly to people who haven’t internalized a particular understanding of economics and ecology.

A genius moves up the chain of integrative complexity quickly, but more than that a genius is addicted to a particular form or forms of flow. Operating at peak, in flow, is something everyone enjoys, but most people aren’t very good at obtaining peak. The problem is that the goalposts keep moving – as you get better at something, a performance that took everything out of you, and threw you into flow, will no longer do so. You have to step up, and make it harder, and risk failure, in order to do so. (The other method of obtaining something approaching peak is to reduce capacity. This is one of the things that alcohol and many other drugs do.)

And so, to the outsider, genius often looks like obsession. Operating at peak literally puts you in a place where your entire concentration is dedicated to what you’re doing. It can be profoundly alienating to the people around you.

The life cycle of genius varies between disciplines. Roughly speaking there are two different types of intelligence. There is liquid intelligence, which is raw processing power. This is your sheer ability to operate, and it is highest in the young. Fields that operate in pure symbology, such as math and physics, reward this very highly. The greatest mathematicians generally make their great discoveries in their twenties, and there is a saying that if you aren’t a great mathematician by 30, you never will be.

At the other end is crystallized intelligence. This is how much skill you’ve made automatic, or knowledge you’ve internalized as discussed above. Fields such as history, for example, value this sort of information highly. No matter how smart you are, it’s hard to know enough to make a significant contribution to such a field young.

Which leads to another important point. You can’t look it up! No, you can’t. If you don’t know it, if you haven’t internalized it, you can’t make connections between it and something else, you can’t work with it. The old saying that “the more I know, the more I know I don’t know” speaks to this. Most people have no idea of their profound ignorance. You can’t work with what you don’t know, and you can’t look up what you don’t know you don’t know. Genius – creative accomplishment, is about making new combinations with your skills and knowledge. Knowledge in a book, which isn’t in your head or your hands, can’t be used in that process.

Once you have all that knowledge, once you have all those skills, you have to do something with it. And while I’m not a genius, I’m here to tell you that creative work is a mystery even to those who do it. You put everything together, you stir it up, you think about it a lot and then half the time you give up and sometime later it comes to you in a flash – the pieces whirl around in your head, click and fit together and in that instant you see it. After you see it, you have to grind out the consequences of what you’ve seen, and you have to put it in language that other people can understand (invariably highly frustrating), but it’s that moment of insight, which Hambly once called “the cold clear ecstasy of intellectual discovery” which is the final, and ultimate payoff for all the years of constant refinement of skill and knowledge.

Hambly said something else which is entirely appropriate to the subject: “Love something for itself and it will give itself to you.” You can’t do all of this out of duty. Sometimes there are hard slogs, true, but ultimately no one is a creative genius who doesn’t, well enjoy isn’t quite the right word, but obsess in probably is, their chosen work.

There are other things that could be said, but we’ll leave it at that for now, except to note that I am not a genius (except in the strict and bogus sense that I have a high enough intelligence to qualify for the book definition used in some circles.) As Heinlein once noted about himself, I am smart enough to stand on the border of genius, to understand, but not to, mostly, do. Instead I am a generalist. I move from field to field, and I pick up the 20% of the knowledge of the field that is required to understand 80% of its applications, and then I move on to the next field. The late Oldman, whom some of you may remember, was a genius, one of the very few I’ve been lucky enough to meet, and he himself recognized the difference.

Most of my friends are generalists or specialists. A good specialist is someone who is a borderline genius and who makes the choice to dedicate himself to a field. A generalist is the same person who cannot give up the bright sparkly objects in other fields to concentrate on just one and work on that last 80% of the knowledge that separates the real specialist from the knowledgeable generalist. For concrete modern day examples – DeLong is a good specialist and Krugman is a genius and that is no insult to DeLong at all.

(Originally published at BopNews, also published at FDL).

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