Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Israel and/or Palestine Page 2 of 10

America’s Responsibility For The Gaza Genocide

By

On August 21, 2024

Comments

Let’s keep it simple. From retired IDF geneneral Yitzhak Brick:

“All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the airplanes and bombs, it’s all from the U.S. The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability. … Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period.”

Note the source here is a pro-Israeli one. Brick goes on to say:

Brick went on to explain that President Joe Biden’s demand that Israel permit “humanitarian aid” to enter Gaza means that he is demanding that Israel keep Hamas fully supplied with food, water and fuel.

His demand that Israel minimize Palestinian civilian casualties endangers IDF soldiers and renders the expansion of the ground offensive into central and southern Gaza, where the bulk of Hamas’s force is now located, almost impossible to carry out

So Brick isn’t putting responsibility on the US because he’s against the war or the atrocities. He’s all in.

The genocide is not possible without America’s support. That makes Biden and any politician who isn’t willing to stop sending Israel weapons and ammunition 100% a participant. If I supply the gun without which a murder cannot happen, knowing that it will be used for murder, I am directly responsible for the murder.

If Harris is not willing to cut off the supply of weapons and ammunition, she is not against the genocide, no matter how much she bewails the deaths.

And not just the deaths. It has become undeniable that Israel is systematically torturing and raping Palestinians, most of whom are non-combatants.

Palestine is the moral litmus test of the day, just as Iraq and South African apartheid were in their day. Eventually everyone will either pretend they were against it, or mea-culpa “how could I have known?”

But just as with Iraq, everyone who wanted to know, knew.

You’re either against genocide, rape and torture or you aren’t and there are no excuses which make any of it acceptable.

My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

The End Of Presumptive Anti-Semitism

By

On August 16, 2024

Comments

Let’s start with something very simple: Israel is committing a genocide is Palestine, and the Israeli state was founded by terrorists and has always been based on ethnic cleansing.

After World War II there was a huge backlash against anti-semitism: prejudice against Jews, because we had seen it end in Germany’s gas chambers. The Zionists used that in their project to take another people’s land for their own: to stand against a Jewish country after the Holocaust seemed wrong.

But this is a case of kindergarten ethics: two wrongs not making a right. The Zionists (not the Jews, the Zionists) stole another people’s land and did so violently.

Then, especially from the 67 on, they engaged in vicious apartheid, and continued to steal the land and homes of Palestinians.

May story of Palestine

After the first Intifada they started routinely killing Palestinians, along with other atrocious behaviour.

I have stated and firmly believe that the current death toll from the Gaza war is in the hundreds of thousands. You can check out the methodology here. They are certainly nowhere near as low as the official death count of something over 40K.

This is the result of deliberate starvation; attacks on hospitals till there is only one left slightly operating; cutting off medicine and water; herding refugees into high density camps then attacking them; shutting off water, and policies intended to lead to plague. All of these policies are entirely deliberate and done with knowledge of their certain effect.

Now let’s talk about anti-semitism v.s. anti-Zionism.

One is ethnic hatred: “Jews are evil.” The other opposes a political movement, “there should be a Jewish apartheid State on land taken from other people.”

Zionism started with ethnic cleansing and has moved on to genocide. To not be anti-Zionist is to be, at best, a moral imbecile and more commonly is a depraved political stance. That stance starts at “I’m OK with genocide” and ends with “I support genocide.”

The next issue is that accusations of anti-semitism have been weaponized. I lost my patience when they were used to take out Corbyn, who was in no way anti-semitic and if there were a Holocaust would be one of the people willing to die to try and stop it. We’ve seen how every protest against the Gazan genocide has been labelled anti-semitic.

So ordinary, moral people, have stopped having a default belief in accusations of anti-semitism because the vast majority of such accusations are now attempts, in effect, to use the Holocaust and people’s repugnance at what led to it to justify ethnic cleansing and another genocide.

Further if there is a rise of anti-semitism in the world, it can be laid 99% percent at the feet of Israel, Zionism and those who cover for the Gaza genocide. When a country wrapping itself in the fig-leaf of “we’re the Jewish nation” undeniably commits a genocide then accuses those who protest of hating Jews and Judaism, some people will fail to make the Zionist/Jewish distinction. “They say they’re Jews, and that Judaism permits this, so  Judaism is bad,” such people will think.

The greatest enemy Jews and Judaism have and the greatest creator of anti-semitism in the world is Israel. And anyone and any nation supporting them is helping create more anti-semitism.

All ideologies aren’t bad, though all can go bad, but Zionism was born with ill will: it was always the project to steal the land and homes of another people.

To Sum Up

Zionism is an ideology which starts with ethnic cleansing as its base. Evil.

Judaism is a religion, which, like almost all religions, can be used to justify evil, but is pointed more towards the good. Hillel’s “Whatever is hateful and distasteful to you, do not do to your fellow man” would have prevented this entire sickening mess, and is far more representative of Judaism than the Zionist perversion.

Jews are an ethnic religious group (there are lots of secular Jews), who are no more intrinsically evil or good than any other group.

Anti-semitism is bad, like all racism.

Anti-Zionism is good, like all opposition to ethnic cleansing and genocide.

My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

Israel’s Economy Is Collapsing & Other Good News

By

On August 13, 2024

Comments

Sometimes there is good news:

Over 46,000 businesses have gone bankrupt, tourism has stopped, Israel’s credit rating was lowered, Israeli bonds are sold at the prices of almost “junk bonds” levels, and the foreign investments that have already dropped by 60% in the first quarter of 2023 (as a result of the policies of Israel’s far-right government before October 7) show no prospects of recovery. The majority of the money invested in Israeli investment funds was diverted to investments abroad because Israelis do not want their own pension funds and insurance funds or their own savings to be tied to the fate of the State of Israel.

What this means is that Israeli is surviving on American charity. Not only is it impossible for Israel to wage war without American supplies, it is impossible for the Israeli economy to avoid collapse without American aid.

Meanwhile, about 40% of settlers who evacuated the north under Hezbollah attacks are likely to not return after the war.

Russia, it appears, now has advisors on the ground in Yemen. If they were intending to give Ansar Allah weapons, this would be the first step. American weapons have been used to sink Russian ships, and Putin has warned that if America supplies weapons and helps with the firing and targeting of those weapons against Russia, Russia will return the favor.

Sinking some American ships would be revenge served cold and I wonder if one of the reasons that Iran and its allies are taking their time with a retaliation attack for the assassinations is because of coordination with Russia.

My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

Palestinian Deaths In the Gaza Conflict Are Probably Close To Half A Million

By

On July 26, 2024

Comments

It’s time to cut thru the crap on Gaza death tolls. Here’s a graph of official deaths:

You’ll notice that over time the curve is flattening. Now you might be stupid enough to dunk your eyes in Dettol for fun, and thus think “oh, I’m sure the rate of killing has decreased significantly”, but given that Israel is systematically funneling Palestinians into “humanitarian zones” which it then bombs the hell out of once there’s a good density, that seems unlikely.

There is also the fact that the Palestinian authorities which count deaths are not as effective as they were at the beginning of the genocide.

Psychologically one suspects Hamas does not want to admit how high the death toll is either.

So let’s eyeball that chart and extend the original line before the flattening. We’ll be conservative, and say it should be around sixty thousand.

Now, the Lancet came out with a study on what the actual death toll might be. Let’s look at their methodology.

Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence. Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases. The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed health-care infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water, and shelter; the population’s inability to flee to safe places; and the loss of funding to UNRWA, one of the very few humanitarian organisations still active in the Gaza Strip.

In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death

to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2 375 259, this would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip. A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28 000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58 260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85 750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.

So, the normal number of indirect deaths is three to fifteen times and the Lancet chose four. But Israel has restricted food and medical aid and systematically destroyed hospitals. Multiple countries cut off funding to the primary aide agency, UNWRA, and most Gazans can’t flee: there’s no way out of Gaza.

That is to say that the indirect death multiplier is almost certainly higher than average in Gaza. So let’s assume just slightly higher than average: an eight times multiplier.

Now do the math 8*60,000=480,000.

A reasonable estimate of the death toll in Gaza is thus 480,000 people. Almost half a million and about seventeen percent of the pre-war population.

Whatever the death toll is it will be closer to half a million than to forty thousand.

My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

What Is Israel’s Goal In the Gaza War?

By

On June 7, 2024

Comments

I think it’s worth emphasizing that based on actions—priority targeting of hospitals, health workers, journalists and civilians;  and cutting off food and water while not accepting ceasefires agreements which would have returned the hostages, that the Israel’s goal is genocide.

There are no significant signs that they are defeating Hamas, and their actions, as opposed to their words, don’t indicate that was ever the intention. Certainly rescuing the hostages isn’t an important goal.

I think Israel would accept ethnic cleansing if they could find someone to take the Palestinians, but since they can’t, mass murder is the goal.

This is consistent with Israel’s history: it’s a colonial settler project where the goals has always been to remove Palestinians and occupy their land and, if not ruined, even their homes.

The WHO estimated that up to a million Gazans were at risk of death due to famine by next month. The longer the war and the blockade goes on, the more will die.

Back in 2006 I wrote that Israel only had two options for its future:

  1. Accept Palestinians as citizens and create a single, secular, state; or,
  2. Genocide or ethnic cleanse the Palestinians.

And so it has come to be.

You get what you support. If you like my writing, please SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

The Real Test Of The Gaza War Will Be The Israeli Invasion Of Southern Lebanon

By

On June 6, 2024

Comments

Israel’s been talking smack about invading Lebanon to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River for some time. (The southern-most river on the map.)

Lebanon has been wrecking havoc in Northern Israel with missiles and drones and Israel has been able to do very little to stop them. Although Hezbollah usually hits military targets recently an attack caused a wildfire and the attacks, even before the wildfire, had caused most of the settlers in the northern region to flee, for example:

Settlers residing in Kiryat Shmona are now at 3k, down from 24k before Hezbollah started operations WSJ cites the settlement’s mayor: 40% don’t intend to return & they are among the settlement’s richest.

(Ian – AKA: those with other options aren’t returning.)

General consensus seems to be the attack is most likely in August or September.

Israel has completely lost deterrence against Hezbollah. Their air strikes don’t make Hezbollah stop and if they go to full air war, Hezbollah will go to full missile war. The only way to reduce the strikes is to control enough of Lebanon so that the shorter range weapons can’t reach Israel.

It’s unclear if Israel will actually invade, but there’s a strong argument they have no choice.

According to an analyst who’s been fairly good thru the war, it seems likely the total number combat soldiers will be about eighteen thousand, twice as much as the 2006 invasion.

About half of them will be reserve soldiers.

In 2006, the last time Israel invaded Lebanon, Hezbollah won. If I were a betting man I’d give 3:1 that Hezbollah wins. The Israeli army has not covered itself in glory in Gaza and Hezbollah’s troops are battle-hardened veterans of the long Syrian civil war, plus are heavily dug in with tunnel networks and bunkers.

No doubt America will provide some assistance, but unlike a Hezbollah ground invasion scenario, it’s unlikely the US will commit troops on the ground or serious air-power to an Israeli invasion. On top of that it’s clear that Biden’s beginning to realize that the Israeli war is costing him electorally, and he’s unlikely to want to get drawn in further.

If Israel actually invades it is a truth moment: until they do, they can bluster and act tough, but if they invade and lose everyone will know how weak they’ve become. At that point truly all they will have left is their nuclear deterrent: the Israeli military, once considered the finest in the world, will be derided as a joke. If Israel doesn’t invade, this will be why: they’re avoiding losing what’s left of the reputation of their military.

You get what you support. If you like my writing, please SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

The Revival Of Anti-Semitism By Israel And Its Defenders

By

On May 30, 2024

Comments

Anti-semitism has been over-stated and used as a political weapon for generations now. It became beyond the pale after World War II and has stayed that way in the West and America. This isn’t to say there weren’t anti-semites, but they were powerless and damn near meaningless.

But that is changing, and it is going to keep changing. The problem is the constant use of the charge of anti-semitism itself to ward of criticisms of mass-murder, child killing, and other crimes by Israel in Palestine.

Israel wraps itself in the cloak of “we are Jews” to justify its crimes.

The distinction between Israeli, Zionist and Jewish isn’t being blurred most dangerously by Israel’s enemies, but by Israel itself.

And the intellectual propaganda is making it worse.

Take this article from “Tablet Magizine”, which according to their “About US” is a “Jewish Magazine about the world.”

It’s a long screed saying that the Talmud has a different conception of morality than Christian morality. “So far, so good”, you might think if you weren’t aware of Israel’s recent actions.

Let’s read a large chunk to get a feel for the argument.

Speaking in terms of religious archetypes, a Jew and a Christian can come to vastly different conclusions about what the right thing to do is in a given situation, particularly where something as ugly as war is involved. What would Jesus do if a Hamas fighter held a Gazan Arab child up as a shield while firing? Hard to say for sure, but anyone who argues that a properly humane response is to die rather than to try to shoot around the child has ample basis in Christianity. The image of the Crucifixion may mean many things, but part of what it means is that accepting corporeal defeat in this world can be a path to God-like virtue and spiritual victory in the world of tomorrow. You will not hear Jesus mentioned when Western leaders speak on how important it is that Israel adhere to international laws of war, but the concept of the innocent civilian enshrined in these laws grew practically out of wars fought within Christendom during the last several hundred years.

More importantly, the very idea of the innocent civilian makes sense in an explicitly Christian context: “Render unto Caesar” plus the idea of a universal community of faith that transcends nationality means the conscience of the individual is paramount, and a person cannot so easily be classed as a targetable enemy “just because” of his membership in some nation waging war.

There is no propaganda from Israel’s enemies that is as dangerous to Jews as this is. If you read carefully, it basically says that there are only innocent civilians, even innocent children, if they are of the same faith as the nation fighting the war, especially if Jews feel that their existence as a people is threatened. (Leave aside, of course, that committing mass murder of women and children is likely to make Jews less safe, not more.)

I mean, this is Nazi anti-semitic level propaganda. There is nothing the Nazis said about Judaism that was worse than what this idiot has just said. “It’s OK to kill non-Jewish innocents, en-masse, if we think it protects Jews.”

And further on he spends time saying it’s what Yahweh wants. (Admitted, the God of the old Testament is often a bastard, but do you want to lean in to, embrace and announce to the world that this is what Judaism is?)

There is no world in which there is not going to be a massive upsurge in anti-semitism, because there is no world in which Israel is not using Jewish identity and religion to justify mass murder of children and women.

Further, the US empire is collapsing. It’s clear to everyone that it’s weak. It’s being kicked out of Africa. It can’t keep the sea lanes open against a bunch of Yemenis. The BRICS are creating a new trade currency, countries are using local currency for trade and China is dumping dollars by the container-ship load. Meanwhile NATO proxy forces in Ukraine are being whipped, the Israelis can’t conquer a small city and Europe is losing its industrial base.

Coming down off the high of being the hegemonic power is going to hurt like a multi-decade hangover, and Israel has been flaunting its control of American government (no, don’t waste my time or yours denying it.)

The only people who have done more damage to Jews than Israel and its defenders are the Nazis.

And that’s before we get to to the fact that they’re losing this war.

Like anyone sane, with the least pretense of morality, I abhor real anti-semitism, as opposed to the fake shit used as a political weapon.

But this is being done to Jews, by the country which wraps itself in its Judaism. It’s not Nazis leading charge to ramp up anti-semitism, it’s Jews who support Israel.

And, speaking personally, after the use of anti-semitism charges to take out Jeremy Corbyn and to whitewash a genocide, well, even I will have to assume that any charge of anti-semitism against anyone is prima-facie fake and just a political weapon.

That isn’t on me, it’s on those who have used charges of anti-semitism as a political weapon to justify mass murder and avoid humane welfare policies.

Again, Jews have no greater enemy in the world than Israel.

You get what you support. If you like my writing, please SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

UN Can’t Feed Rafah Anymore

By

On May 22, 2024

Comments

And soon, maybe not any part of Gaza. (Bear in mind that what they were feeding before was averaging something north of 200 calories a day according to some estimates I’ve seen.)

The United Nations suspended food distribution in the southern Gaza city of Rafah on Tuesday due to a lack of supplies and an untenable security situation caused by Israel’s expanding military operation. The U.N. warned that humanitarian operations across the territory were nearing collapse…

…

The U.N.’s World Food Program said it was running out of food for central Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of people are now living.

“Humanitarian operations in Gaza are near collapse,” said Abeer Etefa, a WFP spokesperson. If food and other supplies don’t resume entering Gaza “in massive quantities, famine-like conditions will spread,” she said…

…The U.N says some 1.1 million people in Gaza — nearly half the population — face

This is, of course, deliberate Israeli policy, abetted by the US. The Rafah crossing was closed during the latest invasion and such trucks as do attempt to provide aid from other directions such as Jordan are often stopped by protesters.

Again, policy, announced immediately after Oct 7.

Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said it would impose a “complete siege” on the territory.

“No electricity, no food, no water, no gas – it’s all closed,” he said, adding that “we are fighting animals and are acting accordingly.”

This is genocide. It is intentional genocide. There is no way the casualty figures are as low as the Hamas health ministry has suggested: they can’t count all the deaths and they have reason to minimize them. At the end of this we are going to find a death toll in the low hundreds of thousands, minimum. The longer this goes on and the more effective the blockade, well, Israel could get damn near its full genocide.

Once more, I will be clear. The only solution to this is a single secular state where everyone has a vote and equal rights. De-Zionization will be necessary, when 98% of the population thinks the level of force used in this war is appropriate and when civilians are stopping food trucks, the entire society is rotten to core. No “truth and reconciliation” bullshit. People going to prison for life, or hung from the neck, starting with the entire war cabinet.

“Never again” was supposed to mean “never again for anyone”, not “people claiming to be Jewish can genocide and Europeans will support them out of guilt.”

Oh, and so far, as best I can find, no food from the pier has made it to a Palestinian.

You get what you support. If you like my writing, please SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

Page 2 of 10

Previous

Next

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén