I’m going to quote retired Israeli general Yitzhak Brick at length:
Netanyahu knows that continuing this process will lead to the collapse of the State of Israel militarily, economically, politically and socially. Even if Hamas and Hezbollah continue to fight as they do today, without military surprises, the “state of Israel” will collapse .
Netanyahu knows full well that we have been in a military stalemate for the last twenty years . The chiefs of staff divided the army into six divisions based on their global vision that the major wars were over. They built a small ground army that could barely fight in one sector; in a regional war we would have to fight in six sectors at once.
Netanyahu also knows that this situation has led to dire consequences in the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Hamas returned to areas where the army had entered and left in the Gaza Strip . The army’s intention to continue the war of attrition against Hamas through raids does not bring any benefit, because these attacks are just a drop in the bucket that weakens Hamas.
Netanyahu is well aware that as long as the war of attrition against Hamas continues, Hezbollah will also continue to deplete our forces on the northern border , and this has very dangerous consequences. Netanyahu also understands that entering Rafah will not bring any results, but on the contrary, since it will worsen the problem tenfold. Our entry into Rafah will completely destroy our relations with the countries of the world and with the Arab countries with which we have peace.
This will have very dire consequences, first of all, the isolation of the “State of Israel” in the political and economic spheres and the arms embargo, which has already begun.
Hamas was already well prepared to enter the battle and prepared a strategic ambush for us with traps and explosives in the streets, squares and in the houses themselves. It will be months before reserve soldiers disobey orders to enlist, as has become the case in the paratroopers, where dozens of them refuse to re-enlist.
America can’t beat Yemen, and has offered them everything — an end to sanctions, release of all funds, international recognition and dissolving the internationally recognized government plus a ton of aid. Yemen, a bunch of tribesmen, have laughed in America’s face.
Israel invaded Gaza, pulled out almost entirely and is now going in again. Their casualty claims for Hamas killed are the same as the number of civilian males killed, and are thus laughable. They can’t beat Hamas, who won’t fight them straight up but relies on endless guerilla action and the civilian casualties are a near exact mirror of the Palestinian population in terms of percentages of men, women and children killed.
In other words, they’re just blowing shit up without any emphasis on destroying Hamas.
Meanwhile the northern settlements are depopulated, with Israeli settlers fleeing the constant missile and drone attacks from Hezbollah. Israel impotently suggests they will occupy southern Lebanon, but they don’t have the manpower and their army quality is crap (this is not the 68/73 Israeli army) while Hezbollah has some of the best infantry in the world, full of combat veterans and filled with zeal. Hezbollah, like Iran, attacks almost nothing but military targets, not civilians, and their military has not been weakened by being a brutal and sadistic occupation army. (Occupation armies, used to fighting the weak, always become weak themselves.)
The Israeli deficit has swelled, their incoming and outgoing trade is under attack, and Yemen has said they will start attacking targets in the Mediterranean (though I don’t think these attacks will be very effective, it doesn’t take much to make merchant marines and their insurers scared.)
There is now a worldwide student protest movement, and while they’ve been crushed by violent force, polling shows opinion moving steadily against Israel. Turkey, rather to my surprise, has finally cut off all trade with Israel, and Turkey is a big deal.
The fact is that if Iran, Hezbollah and Yemen all went all out against Israel, I’m quite sure Israel would lose the conventional war unless the US went to full war to help them: it’s Israeli nukes that keep them alive. The Resistance is aware of this, and their strategy is to wear Israel down, to impose costs over and over again, and to make Israel and America look weak.
So we have the incursion into Rafah, where the majority of Palestinian civilians have been herded by Israel. The intent here is to kill as many civilians possible, and it backed by even more efforts to stop all food, water and medicine from entering Gaza. Israel’s strategy, such as it is, is to “drain the swamp.” Kill most of the civilians, and Hamas is finished. Israel’s killed a lot more people than the official stasticis: the Gaza Department of Health is no longer capable of counting even obvious deaths, and massive numbers of corpses haven’t been counted because they’re buried under rubble. There’s so much rubble that I’ve seen it estimated that it will take over twenty years to clear.
So there’s a race: can Israel finish its genocide, or will they be forced to stop due to military and economic exhaustion?
My bet is against Israel, but only at about 2:1 odds.
As for Israel itself, it needs to cease to exist. The atrocities are off the scale: multiple hospitals were invaded, patients, doctors and nurses killed and buried, often after torture. The bombing is completely indiscrimate and makes Putin and Bush Jr. look like humanitarians in comparison. Something like 98% of Israelis think that the amount of force used is either appropriate or too little. The society itself is sick from top to bottom, “good” Israelis, like “good” Germans are vanishing minority, though they do exist.
The end state needs to be a single Palestinian state and there needs to be no “truth and reconciliation” nonsense, but full war crimes trials.
Whatever the case, like the Crusader States, Israel is doomed. It may end soon, it may take a decade or two, but it will fall. America is in decline, Israel’s military is crap and the American century is at its end.
Let it be the last settler ethnostate.
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Long time readers will know I’ve considered the Israeli army to be garbage, in terms of quality, for a long time—certainly since their last invasion of Lebanon, where Hezbollah cleaned their clock for them.
