Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Israel and/or Palestine Page 6 of 10

Laying Down A Marker

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On November 8, 2023

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I don’t believe the 1,400 number for casualties from the Hamas attack. I suspect less civilians were killed than Israel claims and that many who were killed were killed by Israeli fire (there were plenty of reports of Israeli military not exercising fire control when civilians were around.) I also don’t believe accusations of widespread rape by Hamas. Certainly 40 babies weren’t beheaded.

Israel has lied a ton, while Gaza casualty numbers are generally taken as understatement. Indeed, Israel has stated 20K civilians casualties at least once, twice what Gaza is claiming, which makes sense, since so many people are buried and counting is hard in the middle of a massacre.

This stuff will eventually be worked out, long after it matters, but I’m going to lay down this marker. This doesn’t mean I believe Hamas killed no civilians or children, or that there were zero rapes. I just don’t believe the Israeli numbers.

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Enough! (Palestine)

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On November 6, 2023

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OK. Let’s lay this out.

Israel is genociding Palestinians in Gaza. It has killed more civilians in three weeks than Ukraine and Russia have all war. Over 60% of casualties are children and women. They are deliberately flattening as many residential buildings as possible. They have bombed multiple hospitals, every single university and just hit the remaining water facility, while Palestinians have almost no water to drink.

Their end-goal is to force whoever survives into Egypt.

The US, may their empire collapse now, is sheep-dogging the Israeli genocide.

Let me translate this.

America. “If Iran or Hezbollah try to stop the Israeli genocide of Palestinians, we will fuck up Iran and Lebanon to make sure Israel can keep mass-murdering civilians.”

Fuck you. Fuck you. Fuck you.

Not 5% of people in political power aren’t, functionally, psychopathic mass murderers, any chance they can get.

I will not forget anyone who was for this. Anyone. At best every single person who had any power and supported this, including Justin Trudeau, Biden, etc… need to go to jail for the rest of their lives. All their wealth should be taken and given to their victims.

This has always been true, by the way. Our societies have been run by absolute scum, basically forever. Our system does not work. It promotes to the top of both private and public power the worst people in the world, people who make Jeffrey Dahmer look like a boy-scout. If their victim counts were as low as Dahmer’s, we’d live in a comparative paradise.

We need to figure out a better way to run our societies and don’t even start with “but democracy”. Our form of democracy is a complete failure, and those still alive in even 25 years will be entirely clear about that.

I don’t imagine Trump being any better (remember how he supported Israel), but I’ll never endorse Genocide Joe or any Democrat or Republican who voted to help Israel.

Enough.

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British Intelligence Says Russian Casualties Up 90% + Palestine Update

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On October 23, 2023

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I love this sort of thing.

Russian offensive military campaigns in eastern Ukraine have been partly behind a 90% increase in Russian casualties recorded by Ukraine, according to an intelligence update from the UK Ministry of Defence.

Russia has been carrying out offensive operations in the area of Avdiivka, a small city just to the north of Donetsk.

We’ll note first that UK intelligence has been just a wee bit biased. So if they say 90%, well, take it with a tablespoon of salt.

But let’s assume this is true. What that means is that on shifting to offense from defense, while attacking one of the most heavily fortified areas in Ukraine, Russian casualties have slightly less than doubled.

Which is dog bites man. It’s what you’d expect.

The question is advancement. Maps are quite different from different sources and so are casualty lists but it’s clear that this is slow work.

The bottom line is that Avdiivka is more heavily fortified than Bakhmut. Russia isn’t going to take it easily or quickly unless there is a Ukrainian collapse. Understand clearly that the US and NATO are running out of arms to send to Ukraine, and that artillery shells and missiles intended for Ukraine are now being sent to Israel.

The Palestinian/Israeli war is turning out to be a big plus for Russia and if the war expands, especially if the US becomes more directly involved, Ukraine may find itself out of equipment and ammunition. America is particularly like to go to war if Iran declares.

Without equipment, even the best fortifications won’t stand.

Meanwhile, in Palestine, the 17 trucks of relief were not, in the end, let in. Most Palestinians are down to about a liter of water a day, and not clean water either. Food is running out. The Israeli army has still not invaded Gaza. I would guess they are waiting for deprivation to do its work, and reluctant to allow any aid in because some of it would be used by Hamas fighters.

Israeli morale appears to be shaky, and they are very wary of invading a built up urban area with 40K entrenched fighters. Since they don’t feel they can win that battle as it stands (at least without shattering casualties) they are engaging in siege warfare. Unfortunately, there are 2 million civilians.

All hospitals in Gaza have been told they must evacuate, and are refusing. Anaesthetics are almost entirely out, so operations are being carried out without anaesthesia. Vinegar is being used as a disinfectant in some cases.

To call this a humanitarian disaster is to understate the case, but at least the Israelis have managed to make Russia look civilized.

I would expect massive breakouts of disease given the water and sanitation issues, especially if this goes on for weeks to months, as seems likely.

The Israeli end game appears to be genocide or full ethnic cleansing. We’ll see if they stick it out and if other forces allow it. Even US friendly states like Qatar and Jordan are becoming restive: Jordan’s King straight up refused to meet with Biden, which is amazing.

At least one Iraqi militia is moving to the border with Israel, and I expect many are. Hezbollah is being held back, I suspect, by a reluctance to have Lebanon subject to full bombing again, but have forced Israel to create a five mile DMZ on their border and to evacuate settlers.

I still think an OPEC embargo would be the simplest way to force an end to this, but if a military solution is desired, I’m sure Hezbollah and other potential antagonists want a simultaneous declaration of war.

The joker remains Israel’s nuclear weapons, with threats to glass Iran, and so on. The simplest solution would be to get a nuclear umbrella from Pakistan or Russia, but even that might not work if Israel thinks it is about to lose. To avoid that, a reciprocal threat would have to be made: a promise to not kill Israeli civilians unless nukes are used. Ugly, but Israel is, at least, acting like a mad dog.

This seems likely to drag out for quite some time, which is very bad for the civilians in Gaza.

If you ever wondered what you would do if a genocide was likely or occurring, you now know.

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One Relatively Bloodless Way To End The Genocide In Gaza

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On October 21, 2023

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I’ve mentioned before the possibility of military defeat, but there’s a better way.

Simply have OPEC do another oil embargo to the West and its enablers until the situation is resolved, with a two-state or one state solution and significant restitution. Yeah, the US and Canada produce a surplus, but it’s not enough of a surplus to support all their allies.

And if all OPEC members don’t agree, it really doesn’t matter. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the Gulf States are enough. Since Russia’s already already under various sanctions…

 

That would, of course, require Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States to do more than cry crocodile tears about the Palestinians, and actually do something, which is unlikely. But it’s worth remembering that it is possible and putting it on the table.

Besides, the lion should show its teeth occasionally anyway.

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Understanding the Israeli Project

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On October 18, 2023

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Let’s spell this out in the simplest terms possible.

Israelis came to a land with its own native population. They wanted to live in the land and the land was not very large. (Israel is a small country.)

That required that the people who were already there be removed.

This was done in stages. Some of the early parts were done by buying the land, generally from landlords who didn’t live in Palestine, then evicting the natives. Most of it was done with violence, starting with the Nakba.

The project of Israel is to create a Jewish religious-ethnic state where there hasn’t been one in nearly two thousand years.

The locals people also breed faster than Israelis.

This means they must, again, be removed. There are two ways to do this. You can get them to move away from the land you want, which is known as ethnic cleansing, or you can kill them, which if done in large enough numbers against a specific group is known as genocide.

Israel’s project is intrinsically one of ethnic cleansing, with the possibility of genocide.

That’s how it was designed.

This is why I support a one state solution, in which Israel becomes a secular state with everyone having citizenship. As long as it is a “Jewish” state, ethnic cleansing will always be the goal, at least until it is completed.

Israel cannot be redeemed until the basis for its existence is changed.

This doesn’t make Israel unique, many if not most states were settler states at some point, with more or less ethnic cleansing (sometimes they just made the conquered people the lower castes, as with Normans in England or Aryans in India).

We now believe that ethnic cleansing and genocide is bad and that it shouldn’t be done any more. (Or we say we believe that.)

When Israelis say “you oppose what you yourself did” they aren’t wrong. But that’s like saying “well, you murdered a bunch of people in the past, why can’t I murder people now?”

At the end of the day, however, this will be determined not by what is moral, but by balance of force. For a long time the Israelis had the most force, the question is if they still do.

If they do (with America and Europe’s help) then they will keep moving towards their project.

If they don’t, then the best they can hope for is a single state solution. All other end states for them are worse.

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Palestine and Ukraine Updated Commentary

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On October 17, 2023

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In the Ukraine, Russia is advancing, and while it’s slow, it’s steady and a lot better than Ukraine did in its complete flop of a counter-offensive. Weapons and aid from America are now flowing to Palestine, and most Western countries are reluctant to send more arms and munitions, not least because the shelves are almost bare and production has not been significantly ramped up.

Russia, on the other hand, has vastly increased its ability to produce key munitions, and is importing from North Korea and Iran (though Iran may soon become more reluctant.) The Russians have more artillery, more missiles and more drones, and plenty of artillery shells. Ukraine is so desperate for manpower it is trying to force Ukrainian who fled to other countries to return so they can be conscripted, and it has expanded conscription among women.

The immediate front is highly fortified, and Russian movement into it is slow, though not as slow as Ukraine’s was. Mud is also an issue, but it remains entirely poss that Russia will break thru at some point in the next few months.

Militarily, it would be very much in Russia’s interest if the Israel/Palestine war was to expand, and if the US was to become involved

As for Gaza and Palestine, the Israeli Army keeps coming up with excuses not to invade Gaza. First it was “there are clouds”, now it is “we won’t invade while Biden is in Israel.” Hamas still has at least 40K troops, and Gaza is excellent defensive ground, plus if Hezbollah wants to open a second front, it’s logical for them to wait till Israeli troops are engaged in Gaza.

The US may have indicated (I have some doubts) that if Hezbollah attacks Israel, it will attack Hezbollah. I’m not sure how well this will work out for the US: even Jordan might no longer be willing to base their aircraft, Iraq bases will come under attack immediately, and I suspect Turkey will forbid sorties to fly from there. That means reliance on aircraft carriers, and Hezbollah has anti-ship missiles, with Iran having a lot more.

Part of what is driving Israel to delay the invasion of Gaza (or rethink it entirely) is a desire to make sure that if regional war occurs, the US is actually part of the war. Israel alone against Hezbollah/Syria/Iran/Hamas, is in serious danger of losing.

Water has supposedly been turned back on in Gaza, but it makes little difference, as there isn’t enough power to run pumps and deslanization, and much of that infrastructure was bombed day one by the Israelis.

Leaving aside direct deaths from lack of water, or drinking untreated water and sea-water, it would be surprising if there wasn’t a cholera epidemic soon.

Even leaving aside a ground incursion, actual genocide can occur if the water, food and power situation is not resolved soon.

Negotiations are ongoing to get humanitarian aid in with some commitments made so there’s reason for mild optimism.

Likewise there are negotiations to allow refugees out to Egypt, though Egypt definitely doesn’t want them and it’s going to take some massive bribes to get them to accept anything more than token numbers, if they will at all. (Egypt is in a debt crisis right now, if I were them I’d hold out for actual debt forgiveness, not another crap IMF deal.) Remember that Hamas is ideologically aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, whom the Egyptian military couped, and violently suppresses in Egypt, where they are the natural ruling party.

It is also true that allowing massive numbers of refugees into Egypt gives Israel the “win”, allowing them to ethnically cleanse another group of Palestinians

Gaza hospitals have been repeatedly hit, and there are reports Gaza is now out of painkillers among many other medicines and medical supplies. Given how bombing tends to produce burn victims, this is especially horrific.

There is still serious danger of escalation of the Israeli/Palestinian war, and if it escalates it could escalate very quickly and widely. If the US starts hitting Iran, well remember that Iran is a serious Russian and Chinese ally. Understand also that the “street” in most Muslim countries is super-majority pro-Palestine.

Frankly, if I were them and could co-ordinate it, I’d just all declare war and finish the problem once and for all. Israeli unconditional surrender, and the creation of a new Palestinian state with equal rights for all, no matter their religion or ethnicity. Then de-Zionize. In other words, give them the Germany/Japan post-WWII treatment. As long as Israel exists as a religious ethnic apartheid state, it will remain a source of massive instability, and remain the possible flare up point for regional or even world war.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on Palestine going forward, but I’ll see if I can weave in articles on other topics.

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Avoiding Mass Ethnic Cleansing Or Genocide In Gaza

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On October 12, 2023

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So, the Israeli government has:

Of course, that number can’t be moved and if they could, it’d be mass murder in its own way.

I’m going to state this very simply.

The way things are going, the only way to stop Israel from committing genocide or a wave of ethnic cleansing that makes the Nakba look mild (and quite possibly both) is if Hezbollah/Syria/Iran and perhaps other Muslim countries declare war and win.

It’s unfortunate, but the Israelis have gone mad with power and demonization of the people who are primarily their victims, the Palestinians.

Kick your victims into a corner, brutalize them for generations, then they lash out with violence that is horrific but not even close to as bad as what you have done to them, use it as justification for more horror.

I again refer you to the actual death/injury card and remind you that Palestinians did not invade someone else’s land and kick them out of their homes, then live in them.

And children, if you think anti-semitism is bad now you haven’t even seen how bad it will be if Israel does what it’s planning to do.

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I Try To Avoid The Word Genocide

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On October 11, 2023

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—because it’s vastly over-used. Most things are not genocide, even some events were believe are (the Holodomar) are not. Genocide is the deliberate killing of mass numbers of specific ethnicity because they are that ethnicity.

Now, I’ve always been very concerned for Palestinians and Israelis because there is no way for Israel to remain a “Jewish” state in the long run without getting rid of the Palestinians. One option is ethnic cleansing. The other is genocide.

The sane solution is to make everyone a citizen and give up on blood citizenship, but that wouldn’t be a “Jewish state”.

Israel has bombed Gaza plenty in the past. It’s sickening and evil and collective punishment and all those bad things. They’ve also engaged in ethnic cleansing repeatedly, that’s part of why so many Palestinians are packed into Gaza.

But they’ve stopped short of genocide.

Now here’s the thing which isn’t being emphasized about the current attack on Gaza: all water has been cut off and the water infrastructure has been bombed. Much of Gaza’s water comes from “Israel”, much comes from desalinization (which requires electricity), and while some comes from wells and there is one stream in Gaza (it doesn’t make it to river) there simply isn’t enough water. Palestinians do have a lot of cisterns, but they will run out soon.

You die fast without water.

And Israel has been attacking any relief convoys trying to come from the Egyptian side.

Israel is mowing the grass — killing as many civilians as they can. That’s the plan and they’ve been open about it. The US, of course, is helping.

Days like these it’s hard to disagree with Iran when it screams about America being the “great Satan”. (For the record, I am not a fan of Iran. I am a believer in secular society with equality between the sexes and so on.)

If there isn’t a climb-down from this monstrous nonsense, we’re in danger of seeing Israel commit a genocide, aided by much of the West.

Much is still in play, including possible entry of Hezbollah, Iran and Syria. Israel’s army is performing pathetically, with Hamas soldiers still able to attack into Israel and running gun battles.

But Israel is on course to lose its soul. You don’t “mow the grass” or commit genocide because about a 1,000 people were killed after you’ve spent over 70 years killing another people at loss ratios of over 10:1, while stealing and living in their homes and on what was their land.

Well, actually, you often do. America certainly did, squealing about Indian atrocities (which definitely happened) even as it committed greater ones.

I do not expect Israel, as a Jewish state, to exist in 50 years, and that is whether or not they genocide Gaza. It may end much, much sooner.

But the end of Jewish Israel will be a lot less violent and bloody if they do not go full Nazi first.

This is not America or Germany, this a tiny country surrounded by the co-religionists of the people they are massacring.

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