The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Israel and/or Palestine Page 7 of 10

Avoiding Mass Ethnic Cleansing Or Genocide In Gaza

So, the Israeli government has:

Of course, that number can’t be moved and if they could, it’d be mass murder in its own way.

I’m going to state this very simply.

The way things are going, the only way to stop Israel from committing genocide or a wave of ethnic cleansing that makes the Nakba look mild (and quite possibly both) is if Hezbollah/Syria/Iran and perhaps other Muslim countries declare war and win.

It’s unfortunate, but the Israelis have gone mad with power and demonization of the people who are primarily their victims, the Palestinians.

Kick your victims into a corner, brutalize them for generations, then they lash out with violence that is horrific but not even close to as bad as what you have done to them, use it as justification for more horror.

I again refer you to the actual death/injury card and remind you that Palestinians did not invade someone else’s land and kick them out of their homes, then live in them.

And children, if you think anti-semitism is bad now you haven’t even seen how bad it will be if Israel does what it’s planning to do.


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I Try To Avoid The Word Genocide

—because it’s vastly over-used. Most things are not genocide, even some events were believe are (the Holodomar) are not. Genocide is the deliberate killing of mass numbers of specific ethnicity because they are that ethnicity.

Now, I’ve always been very concerned for Palestinians and Israelis because there is no way for Israel to remain a “Jewish” state in the long run without getting rid of the Palestinians. One option is ethnic cleansing. The other is genocide.

The sane solution is to make everyone a citizen and give up on blood citizenship, but that wouldn’t be a “Jewish state”.

Israel has bombed Gaza plenty in the past. It’s sickening and evil and collective punishment and all those bad things. They’ve also engaged in ethnic cleansing repeatedly, that’s part of why so many Palestinians are packed into Gaza.

But they’ve stopped short of genocide.

Now here’s the thing which isn’t being emphasized about the current attack on Gaza: all water has been cut off and the water infrastructure has been bombed. Much of Gaza’s water comes from “Israel”, much comes from desalinization (which requires electricity), and while some comes from wells and there is one stream in Gaza (it doesn’t make it to river) there simply isn’t enough water. Palestinians do have a lot of cisterns, but they will run out soon.

You die fast without water.

And Israel has been attacking any relief convoys trying to come from the Egyptian side.

Israel is mowing the grass — killing as many civilians as they can. That’s the plan and they’ve been open about it. The US, of course, is helping.

Days like these it’s hard to disagree with Iran when it screams about America being the “great Satan”. (For the record, I am not a fan of Iran. I am a believer in secular society with equality between the sexes and so on.)

If there isn’t a climb-down from this monstrous nonsense, we’re in danger of seeing Israel commit a genocide, aided by much of the West.

Much is still in play, including possible entry of Hezbollah, Iran and Syria. Israel’s army is performing pathetically, with Hamas soldiers still able to attack into Israel and running gun battles.

But Israel is on course to lose its soul. You don’t “mow the grass” or commit genocide because about a 1,000 people were killed after you’ve spent over 70 years killing another people at loss ratios of over 10:1, while stealing and living in their homes and on what was their land.

Well, actually, you often do. America certainly did, squealing about Indian atrocities (which definitely happened) even as it committed greater ones.

I do not expect Israel, as a Jewish state, to exist in 50 years, and that is whether or not they genocide Gaza. It may end much, much sooner.

But the end of Jewish Israel will be a lot less violent and bloody if they do not go full Nazi first.

This is not America or Germany, this a tiny country surrounded by the co-religionists of the people they are massacring.


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Thinking About A Hezbollah Intervention

So, let’s say Hezbollah intervenes, as they have said they will if there’s a ground incursion–and Netanyahu has announced it has started.

Remember that Hezbollah has thousands of missiles and that the Israeli “Iron Dome” couldn’t even keep up with Hamas’s attack.

Hezbollah didn’t have much of a missile force in 2006, and what they had were short range and inaccurate. Still, Israel was unable to find and destroy most of the launch sites and its ground incursion was defeated. Indeed Hezbollah was able to intercept Israeli comms while Israel could not intercept Hezbollah’s comms, since they were based on an underground private system.

It seems like the first steps would be to overwhelm the Iron dome, then hit the airfields and ports. A few missiles that get thru to the ports could wreck enough ships to make the ports unusable and hitting airfields, whether the planes are on the ground or not, would cripple the IAF. No nearby nation is going to let Israel run its air attacks off their airfields, after all. Even places where the government is sympathetic (Egypt) couldn’t, the population backlash would be immense and violent.

The Israeli army isn’t an elite bunch, they’re mostly conscripts who man checkpoints. Hezbollah is battle hardened. Once the Israeli air force is grounded, a land incursion suddenly doesn’t look as bad. Israel deploys its artillery in formations which indicate it hasn’t learned the lessons of the Ukraine war: drones and missile attacks could take much of it out.

At that point its Hezbollah ground troops vs. Israeli ground troops, and that’s a lot more even than it looks. Israel is a small country, there’s little land to give up.

The joker is Israeli nukes, but I have seen claims that Iranian intelligence knows where the ground based nukes are.

A strike against them is super-dangerous, if Israel thinks they are going to lose them, they’ll use them. At the same time, if Israel looks like it’s going to be defeated, they might use them anyway. Especially if Iran becomes involved, taking them out becomes very important.

Israel also has five diesel subs, possibly retrofitted with nuclear launch capability. I don’t know if Iran has any way of dealing with those.

Now, remember that there are other actors. Iraqi militias have indicated they support the Palestinians, and I would expect that many of them are already on their way to Israel’s borders. Syria hates Israel, and may decide to join in. Yemen has plenty of missiles as well, and strongly supports Palestine. Finally, there is Iran.

Iran is significant Russian ally, and one of the only countries to unconditionally support Russia in Ukraine (Israel has supported Ukraine.) Russia’s unlikely to extend its nuclear umbrella to Iran against Israel, but it might warn the US not to use nukes if the US decides to escalate.

I am not convinced that if the entire “axis of resistance” gets involved that Israel will win the ensuing war. These aren’t the incompetent Arab armies of the 60s, these are well equipped and battle-hardened troops who have been fighting for much of the last 20 years.

I think Israel’s military position is far more tenuous than it wants to admit, and probably more so that it even realizes.

We’ll see how this plays out. But the first thing to watch is Hezbollah. If they decide to go “all in” this is going to be a real war, not a replay of 2006 where they had to stay on the defensive and just take the massive bombing from Israel.

(Oh, and as for the American carrier group, well, don’t be so sure that if it gets involved, it’s immune to counter-attack.)


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Hamas Attacks, What Does It Mean?

For once I was taken by surprise. I didn’t expect this attack and despite my low opinion of the Israeli military, would not have expected it to be so successful.

Hamas actually captured the Israeli southern command base briefly. It was retaken with massive air strikes (meaning Israel was willing to hit its own people.) In the initial 12 hours or so they wiped the floor with local Israeli forces.

This is the most successful Palestinian military operation I can think of.

Hamas could not, of course, hold the ground it took and is retreating to Gaza. Israel has declared war and stated that they will invade Gaza.

A ground invasion will be extremely bloody, Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on Earth, and Hamas has had plenty of time to prepare. Bombing and shelling urban areas does not make invasion significantly easier.

Let’s drawn out some specific points:

Complete Mossad Intelligence Failure

Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, has a fearsome reputation, but they either wanted the attack to happen (which is unlikely) or they were caught completely by surprise. This is an embarrassment, to vastly understate the case.

Israeli Military Weakness

As I have said repeatedly, and as the last war with Hezbollah showed, the Israeli army, no matter how many weapons or men or planes it has, is weak and incompetent. This is not the military of 1967 or even 1980, when the legend of Israeli military brilliance was created.

This is due to serving primarily as an occupation army. All occupation armies, fighting against the weak, become weak, brutal bullies incompetent at fighting real opposition.

The Israeli army was slow to respond, a general was captured and a command base. This is, again, humiliating.

Humiliation

Humiliation is the word of the day. Just as a bully whose victim manages to get in a few good punches has to be brutal in response, so Israel will lash out massively.

Context

This is one reason why Hamas lashed out. No one could be expected to endure this, year on year, and not want to strike back. It is also why, while I have sympathy for anyone hurt or killed, I have no patience with crocodile tears from Israeli supporters, acting as if they haven’t been doing worse to Palestinians for years.

The Hezbollah Question

is whether they’ll attack. The answer seems to be “probably” as Hezbollah has said that if there is a ground invasion of Gaza, they will declare war. Hezbollah is no joke, they are battle hardened, have between 40K and 150K missiles, a drone force, and their own private comms system.

Israel is moving forces to the Lebanese border as we speak. Militarily speaking, if I were Hezbollah, I might attack sooner rather than later.

The Iran Question

Iran is Hamas and Hezbollah’s sponsor. It is VERY unlikely Hamas did this without Iranian greenlighting and if that’s so, the plan isn’t “do one attack, then get hammered.”

The “Iron” Dome

Israel’s missile defenses cracked under Hamas’s missile barrage. There is no question, if Hezbollah attacks, the Iron Dome will not shoot down most missiles. This time it won’t be Lebanon’s heartland being bombed mercilessly while Tel Aviv is spared, there will be carnage in both homelands.

Nukes

In some ways this is the bottom line. Israel has nukes. If they did not, I would expect Iran to join in and if I were Egypt, I might invade. Israel is weak and humiliated. But as long as they have nukes, other countries will shy off from direct war unless they think they have a way of taking out those nukes.

Diplomatic Damage

Israeli-Saudi Arabia negotiations are dead for the time being and other Arab allies will not be able to do anything but condemn Israel. There are massive demonstration in support of Hamas in Turkey, Egypt and many other Muslim countries.

Ethnic Cleansing and Occupation

Israel has a huge problem, in that it has a massive population of non-citizens, and those non-citizens are out-breeding the citizenry, except for the ultra-orthodox Jews who do not serve in the military. This is an ulcer, and many Israeli politicians have been clear they want to just get rid of the Palestinians. They can’t genocide them, because it would destroy the Holocaust trump card, but many would love ethnic cleanse them. This may be an opportunity.

This is also an issue because if Israel wants to directly run Gaza, the occupation will be a bloody guerilla war, an endless bleeding ulcer.

If they don’t want to run it, they have to find a friendly quisling force, like the Palestinian authority, to do it for them, and at least right now, there’s no one to take that role. Hamas are more moderate than the other main Gaza factions.

Imperial Overstretch

Usually when Israel is in trouble the US airlifts in massive arms and munitions to help them, as they did in the 2006 war. But right now the shelves are almost bare because of Ukraine.

Balance of Forces

Hamas is obviously still the massive underdog. They are praying for Hezbollah to join in, and perhaps they want Israel to invade so they can fight a ground war against Israel on their own ground. The smart money is still on Israel.

But do not underestimate Hezbollah, and don’t underestimate how nasty this could get if Hezbollah does intervene. As noted above, they will be able to strike Israel’s heartland. If Israel attacks into Lebanon in response, with ground assets, my money is Hezbollah and if I were Hezbollah I would want that. Defeat the attack, then counter-attack into Israel.

If Hezbollah has to attack on the ground because Israel won’t oblige them I honestly don’t know how it will go.

But, while smaller and less well equipped, Hezbollah is the superior military with higher morale. If I were Israeli, I would not be sanguine.

Concluding Remarks

I won’t cavil, I think Hamas is justified in this attack. I also think the argument that settlers are civilians is weak (though by settlers I do not mean all Israelis.) Israel is an apartheid religious-ethnic state which stole another people’s land and continues to brutalize them.

The only humane solution, one which allows Israel to continue to exist, is a single state with everyone as full citizens.

Alas, that is not on the table.

In the long run, Israel as an ethic religious state, like the Crusader States, is doomed.

The only question is how many people have to suffer before Israel becomes a nation whose very basis is not completely unjust.

(Oh, and if Iran joins in.)

**Edit: it seems early reports of Ukrainian aid weapons winding up with Hamas are incorrect, or at least unverified. Removed with my apologies. (Although I suspect many have wound up on the black market, and would be surprised if Hamas didn’t wind up with a few.)


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It Is True: There Is No Moral Equivalency Between Hamas and Israel or the US

Ilhan Omar, the most radical of the Squad, gave in and apologized for saying:

“We must have the same level of accountability and justice for all victims of crimes against humanity,” she wrote. “We have seen unthinkable atrocities committed by the US, Hamas, Israel, Afghanistan, and the Taliban.”

This is, of course, true. In fact, it’s way too mild. But Omar caved.

She said she had never made “a moral comparison between Hamas and the Taliban and the US and Israel.”

“I was in no way equating terrorist organizations with democratic countries with well-established judicial systems,” she added.

House Democratic leaders issued their own statement welcoming Ms. Omar’s clarification, saying that “drawing false equivalencies between democracies like the US and Israel and groups that engage in terrorism like Hamas and the Taliban foments prejudice and undermines progress toward a future of peace and security for all.”

Now, the problem here is that there is no moral equivalency between Hamas and the US and Israel. Hamas has killed far fewer people, and committed far fewer atrocities. It has not tried to ethnically cleanse an entire people and has not invaded any other countries. Being a “democracy,” which Israel is not, since almost half of the population can’t vote, does not excuse your war crimes. Hamas is, in every way that matters, far less evil than the US or Israel. This isn’t even a question, and anyone who thinks it is has their moral compass so far up their ass it will never again see daylight.

Do remember that the CIA tortured people. This is well established. What did the “well-established judicial system” of the United States do about that?

The only person the “well-established judicial system” of the United States put in jail for CIA torture was the whistleblower who revealed the torture in an attempt to stop it.

Hamas aren’t “good” people, but they are freedom fighters (yeah, sorry) defending their people, who suffer under an apartheid system after having been ethnic cleansed out of most of their homeland. They have killed fewer people than Israel, stolen fewer homes, and not conquered any countries with a native population and shoved the native population into the dirt.

Compared to Israel, or the US (Libya, Iraq, Vietnam, nukes, drone murders, rendition, etc, etc.), Hamas is a moral giant. Perhaps they are only saved by their weakness, and would be as evil if they had more power, but they don’t. They shoot homemade missiles at Israel to try and stop Israel from stealing more Palestinians homes and Israel retaliates with the most advanced bombs and missiles in the world, leveling press offices, hospitals, and apartment blocks.


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Protecting Diaspora Jews and Ending the Israeli Threat to Jews

Last week, I argued you couldn’t be Jewish (in any religious sense) and defend Israel’s actions.

The great Rabbi Hillell, challenged to teach the Torah while standing on one leg, said:

“What is hateful to you, do not do to your fellow: this is the whole Torah; the rest is the explanation; go and learn.”

It should then be obvious that stealing people’s houses, beating them, destroying their orchards, and killing them is in complete opposition to the whole Torah.

Now everyone who isn’t a bald-faced liar or a fool knows that Israel uses its “Jewish” status as a shield. If you criticize Israeli crimes against humanity or war crimes, you are called an anti-semite. Lives are destroyed, routinely, by accusations of anti-semitism.

Meanwhile, we have actual anti-semitism caused by the reaction to Israel’s crimes. People get mad, and a very few attack Jews.

“Somebody in one of the cars driving by started throwing glass bottles or glass cups at the tables and they shattered everywhere,” she said. A bunch of the cars stopped, and maybe 30 of the men in the cars got out, started running towards the tables and asking indiscriminately, ‘Who’s Jewish?’”

No one was seriously hurt. Los Angeles police said they are investigating this as a hate crime, with five victims who were either punched or injured by broken glass.

Obviously this is horrible, though nothing near as bad as what is happening to Palestinians as I write. But it could be a precursor of far worse actions.

Anti-semitism is terrible. It shouldn’t be tolerated.

And Israel creates it on a vast scale by claiming to be a Jewish state, then committing atrocities, then using that they are Jewish as a shield from criticism or change.

In effect, Israel claims that its crimes are Jewish crimes. To criticize them is to criticize Jews.

This is bullshit. Israel is a settler apartheid state, but it’s not Jewish except somewhat ethnically, because what it does routinely; what it did to create itself (cleanse Palestinians at its birth, and steal their homes) is against the whole Torah.

Israel isn’t Jewish. They’re an evil state who has stolen the cloak of a great religion, which under Rabbinical guidance has largely been peaceful, and used abhorrence of the Holocaust and anti-semitism to allow them to steal and murder.

Stealing and murdering aren’t Jewish, they are what Judaism stands against.

The way forward is simple: Jews and non-Jews need to push back, at every chance, when Israel claims to be Jewish. It isn’t

When it is seen that it isn’t, this will both make Jews outside of Israel (and within Israel who oppose Israel’s crimes) safer, and make a one-state settlement which makes everyone in Israel-Palestine a citizen and equal before the law more likely.

If Israel isn’t Jewish, then it’s no big deal to have Palestinians be citizens.

Israel as a state that claims to be Jewish, and uses its supposed Judaism as a shield against criticism of its crimes, needs to end.

What will remain is a state that by treating everyone equally (do not do to your fellow what is hateful to you) will be more Jewish for proclaiming it less.

May God, in all his forms, bless those who seek equality and peace and cast his gaze upon Israel, who claim to be his children, and bring to them Justice with Mercy.


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Israel Invades Gaza

After bombing the shit out of Gaza, the ground incursion has begun.

The strikes were so strong that people inside the city, several kilometers away, could be heard screaming in fear…

…Gaza’s Health Ministry said the death toll has climbed to 103 Palestinians, including 27 children and eleven women, with 530 people wounded. The Hamas and Islamic Jihad militant groups have confirmed 20 deaths in their ranks, though Israel says that number is much higher. Seven people have been killed in Israel, including a six year-old boy.

Let us remember the sequence. Israeli settlers stole homes in Jerusalem, and Israeli troops attacked peaceful worshippers in al-Aqsa mosque, then Hamas fired missiles after this had been going on for days and the government showed no sign of stopping.

Hamas exactly knows Israel’s weakness: Israelis are paralyzed by the fear of having soldiers taken captive, because the Israelis have become cowards: they have spent over 40 years killing and hurting and dispossessing the weak, and like all bullies, they can’t stand anyone who doesn’t cower in front of them. Remember that Hezbollah beat them in the last war, and even defeated them in the electronic warfare theater (which takes some doing since Israel has the best US equipment). Israel is too scared to patrol near Lebanon, because Hezbollah has told them that if they do, they will grab the first soldiers they can find.

Hamas military spokesman Abu Obeida said the group was not afraid of a ground invasion, saying any invasion would be a chance “to increase our catch” of dead or captive soldiers.

Catch ’em. Send them through the tunnels to safe houses.

The Israelis, of course, have many many prisoners, but Palestinians expect that, are used to it, and know it is a cost of resistance.

I will not cavil or “both sides” this. The Palestinians, as an occupied people, have every right to resist the occupiers, and the Israelis, as the occupiers, are the people committing the serious crimes against humanity and war crimes.

Hamas can’t “win” this. They are too outgunned and outnumbered.

But because they know the weakness of the Israelis, because they know the Israelis cannot bear one-one hundredth of the pain they routinely inflict on Palestinians, Hamas can make Israel pay.

Israel, as a Jewish-ethnic state, is an ongoing crime against humanity. The two-state solution is dead. Israel needs to become a single state, with everyone being a citizen with equal rights, and all stolen property needs to be returned to those from whom it was stolen.

To do otherwise is unworthy and pathetic; it shows that Israel learned the exact wrong lessons from the Nazis and the Wehrmacht. It is terrible and sad.

There is no good end here for Israel without doing the right thing. The only other option is to finish their wholesale ethnic cleansing and show that, while not strictly speaking genocidal, they truly are Hitler’s bastard children.

If that’s not who they want to be, then for once in Israel’s existence, it must do the right thing by those it has wronged. There is no other good path out; no other path worthy of a God served by Rabbi Hillell:

“What is hateful to you, do not do to your fellow: this is the whole Torah; the rest is the explanation; go and learn.”

The Israelis claim to be Jews. If I were a Jew, I would claim that no one who supports the actions of Israel towards the Palestinians can be Jewish, for they do not follow the whole Torah. God and all the prophets can only curse their names for doing their evil and cloaking in God’s name.


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The Right of Israel to Exist and the Fresh Hell it Is Heading Towards

I’ll be plain here: As a religious ethnic state which prefers Jews, I do not grant that Israel has the right to exist. (Wonder how many subscriptions that statement just cost me?)

As a state where everyone has equal rights, it has every right to exist, and all its residents should be left in peace.

Palestinians and non-Jews like Muslims are humans. As humans, they should be treated with the same rights as every other human.

What is happening right now is that Palestinian homes are being stolen by force. When the law is used (it often isn’t), it applies one set of laws to Palestinians, and another to Israeli Jews.

Meanwhile, at al-Aqsa mosque, entirely peaceful worshipers are being gassed and beaten. One signature move is “knee on neck,” of George Floyd fame, which is how fascist cops give the middle finger to everyone decent in the world, now. There are videos of this, with millions of views.

If you are a humanist who believes in universal human rights, you cannot support the existence of Israel as a Jewish ethnic-state. It was created by taking the lands and homes of other people, and it exists by keeping those people and their descendants a second class residents, often with great violence. Nor have its crimes ever stopped.

Map Story of Palestine

Map Story of Palestine

What this map should tell you is something simple: There is no possibility of a two-state solution; there is no viable Palestine without removing large numbers of violent settlers. Those settlers would assassinate any Israeli leader who tried, and odds are the army and police would help them.

What it also tells you is that Palestinians are still being ethnically cleansed. This is not a historic crime, long or short in the past, it is an ongoing crime.

 Two-state is dead. There are only two ends to this: The Israelis finish ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, or they give them full rights and citizenship and end the Jewish-ethnic nature of Israel.

It is very odd that cleansing Palestinians is, sub-voce, justified by the Holocaust. Being genocided does not give a free “ethnic cleansing” card, and if it did, one presumes it would be against those who genocided you. I, as someone of primary Irish descent, would presumably get one against the English (and, Lord, if anyone deserves it, the English are high on the list, but I will not descend to their level and kill vast swathes of innocents).

If Israel was “justice” for the Holocaust, then it should have been created by ethnically cleansing Germans out of Prussia.

But the issue here is that Israel is a religious-ethnic state where almost half the population (and yes, Palestinians are ruled primarily by Israel, not by the Palestinian Authority or Hamas, don’t make me laugh) are not even second-class citizens. It is an apartheid state, just not yet one with percentages as bad as those in South Africa.

Israelis of good conscience or good sense, know the horror they now face. What lessons did they learn from the Nazis? Who have they become? What is the state of their souls, should souls exist?

Van Creveld, an Israeli military historian and hardly a bleeding heart:

They [Israeli soldiers] are very brave people… they are idealists… they want to serve their country and they want to prove themselves. The problem is that you cannot prove yourself against someone who is much weaker than yourself. They are in a lose-lose situation. If you are strong and fighting the weak, then if you kill your opponent then you are a scoundrel… if you let him kill you, then you are an idiot. So here is a dilemma which others have suffered before us, and for which as far as I can see there is simply no escape. Now the Israeli army has not by any means been the worst of the lot. It has not done what for instance the Americans did in Vietnam… it did not use napalm, it did not kill millions of people. So everything is relative, but by definition, to return to what I said earlier if you are strong and you are fighting the weak, then anything you do is criminal

Israel, so far, has done great criminal acts. But yes, it has only ethnically cleansed, it has not committed genocide.

For their own sakes, I hope that Israelis will realize the precipice upon which they stand and see how they have let a combination of fear, power, and greed for a homeland convince them that a Jewish ethnic state is worth what it is costing them.

The next play is to bring down al-Aqsa mosque, and rebuild the Temple. Be very clear that that is where this is going.

May God, if he exists and is beneficient and not a monster, extend his blessings over all involved, that they see the hell they live in, and the worse hell they are charging towards. To live in peace, under just and kind laws applied evenly to all, is to live in heaven. To deny that peace or equal law, is to deny God.


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