The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Middle East Page 8 of 20

Hamas Attacks, What Does It Mean?

For once I was taken by surprise. I didn’t expect this attack and despite my low opinion of the Israeli military, would not have expected it to be so successful.

Hamas actually captured the Israeli southern command base briefly. It was retaken with massive air strikes (meaning Israel was willing to hit its own people.) In the initial 12 hours or so they wiped the floor with local Israeli forces.

This is the most successful Palestinian military operation I can think of.

Hamas could not, of course, hold the ground it took and is retreating to Gaza. Israel has declared war and stated that they will invade Gaza.

A ground invasion will be extremely bloody, Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on Earth, and Hamas has had plenty of time to prepare. Bombing and shelling urban areas does not make invasion significantly easier.

Let’s drawn out some specific points:

Complete Mossad Intelligence Failure

Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, has a fearsome reputation, but they either wanted the attack to happen (which is unlikely) or they were caught completely by surprise. This is an embarrassment, to vastly understate the case.

Israeli Military Weakness

As I have said repeatedly, and as the last war with Hezbollah showed, the Israeli army, no matter how many weapons or men or planes it has, is weak and incompetent. This is not the military of 1967 or even 1980, when the legend of Israeli military brilliance was created.

This is due to serving primarily as an occupation army. All occupation armies, fighting against the weak, become weak, brutal bullies incompetent at fighting real opposition.

The Israeli army was slow to respond, a general was captured and a command base. This is, again, humiliating.

Humiliation

Humiliation is the word of the day. Just as a bully whose victim manages to get in a few good punches has to be brutal in response, so Israel will lash out massively.

Context

This is one reason why Hamas lashed out. No one could be expected to endure this, year on year, and not want to strike back. It is also why, while I have sympathy for anyone hurt or killed, I have no patience with crocodile tears from Israeli supporters, acting as if they haven’t been doing worse to Palestinians for years.

The Hezbollah Question

is whether they’ll attack. The answer seems to be “probably” as Hezbollah has said that if there is a ground invasion of Gaza, they will declare war. Hezbollah is no joke, they are battle hardened, have between 40K and 150K missiles, a drone force, and their own private comms system.

Israel is moving forces to the Lebanese border as we speak. Militarily speaking, if I were Hezbollah, I might attack sooner rather than later.

The Iran Question

Iran is Hamas and Hezbollah’s sponsor. It is VERY unlikely Hamas did this without Iranian greenlighting and if that’s so, the plan isn’t “do one attack, then get hammered.”

The “Iron” Dome

Israel’s missile defenses cracked under Hamas’s missile barrage. There is no question, if Hezbollah attacks, the Iron Dome will not shoot down most missiles. This time it won’t be Lebanon’s heartland being bombed mercilessly while Tel Aviv is spared, there will be carnage in both homelands.

Nukes

In some ways this is the bottom line. Israel has nukes. If they did not, I would expect Iran to join in and if I were Egypt, I might invade. Israel is weak and humiliated. But as long as they have nukes, other countries will shy off from direct war unless they think they have a way of taking out those nukes.

Diplomatic Damage

Israeli-Saudi Arabia negotiations are dead for the time being and other Arab allies will not be able to do anything but condemn Israel. There are massive demonstration in support of Hamas in Turkey, Egypt and many other Muslim countries.

Ethnic Cleansing and Occupation

Israel has a huge problem, in that it has a massive population of non-citizens, and those non-citizens are out-breeding the citizenry, except for the ultra-orthodox Jews who do not serve in the military. This is an ulcer, and many Israeli politicians have been clear they want to just get rid of the Palestinians. They can’t genocide them, because it would destroy the Holocaust trump card, but many would love ethnic cleanse them. This may be an opportunity.

This is also an issue because if Israel wants to directly run Gaza, the occupation will be a bloody guerilla war, an endless bleeding ulcer.

If they don’t want to run it, they have to find a friendly quisling force, like the Palestinian authority, to do it for them, and at least right now, there’s no one to take that role. Hamas are more moderate than the other main Gaza factions.

Imperial Overstretch

Usually when Israel is in trouble the US airlifts in massive arms and munitions to help them, as they did in the 2006 war. But right now the shelves are almost bare because of Ukraine.

Balance of Forces

Hamas is obviously still the massive underdog. They are praying for Hezbollah to join in, and perhaps they want Israel to invade so they can fight a ground war against Israel on their own ground. The smart money is still on Israel.

But do not underestimate Hezbollah, and don’t underestimate how nasty this could get if Hezbollah does intervene. As noted above, they will be able to strike Israel’s heartland. If Israel attacks into Lebanon in response, with ground assets, my money is Hezbollah and if I were Hezbollah I would want that. Defeat the attack, then counter-attack into Israel.

If Hezbollah has to attack on the ground because Israel won’t oblige them I honestly don’t know how it will go.

But, while smaller and less well equipped, Hezbollah is the superior military with higher morale. If I were Israeli, I would not be sanguine.

Concluding Remarks

I won’t cavil, I think Hamas is justified in this attack. I also think the argument that settlers are civilians is weak (though by settlers I do not mean all Israelis.) Israel is an apartheid religious-ethnic state which stole another people’s land and continues to brutalize them.

The only humane solution, one which allows Israel to continue to exist, is a single state with everyone as full citizens.

Alas, that is not on the table.

In the long run, Israel as an ethic religious state, like the Crusader States, is doomed.

The only question is how many people have to suffer before Israel becomes a nation whose very basis is not completely unjust.

(Oh, and if Iran joins in.)

**Edit: it seems early reports of Ukrainian aid weapons winding up with Hamas are incorrect, or at least unverified. Removed with my apologies. (Although I suspect many have wound up on the black market, and would be surprised if Hamas didn’t wind up with a few.)


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China Leads A Successful Middle East Summit

Something which has slipped past most people’s radar is that China recently acted as the intermediary for peace talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The two countries have been at each other’s throats for decades, funding and running operations and proxies against each other. Elijah Manjier has a decent summary (part is behind a subscriber wall) from a pro-Iranian point of view.

It’s also interesting that in this conference no English was used!

Now it’s obvious why the US couldn’t be involved: it hates Iran and doesn’t intend to change that any time soon. But that China was reached out to indicates that it has good relationships with Iran and Saudi Arabia and that it’s considered powerful and prestigious enough to be involved a region far from its core.

On the Saudi side this shows the continued movement away from being a US ally. It suggests continued movement towards China, and that the petro-dollar really is under significant threat.

For Iran, it suggests that the days of the US being able to coordinate sanctions over it are likely numbered. If the Sauds break out of the US bloc, one can expect the Gulf States to follow if Iran is also in the Chinese bloc: these are the regional and cultural great powers. As Chinese/Russian payments expand and with petrochemicals priced in Yuan or Rubles, and with the most important Middle Eastern powers friendly to China, the US is reduced to its core allies. These are important countries, no doubt—Europe, Japan, South Korean, Taiwan and so on, but it is a minority of the world and is filled with countries terrified of US sanctions, looking for a way out under the potential hammerlock.

I don’t want to over-state how important this mediation by China was, but it was important and it’s one of those milestone moments. It wasn’t the US or Europe who the Sauds and Iranians went to, and just as importantly, they didn’t feel they needed US approval. Saudi Arabia using China, whom the US has declared an enemy, to move towards peace with a country the US has been hostile to for about 45 years is an earthquake.

Whether the peace will really happen is more dubious, but if movement, even hesitant 2 steps forward, one step backwards movement continues, it will be worthwhile. I am most interested to see if this will mean some sort of peace can be worked out in Yemen, or if it means the Iranians will abandon the Houthis, which would be sad.


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It Is True: There Is No Moral Equivalency Between Hamas and Israel or the US

Ilhan Omar, the most radical of the Squad, gave in and apologized for saying:

“We must have the same level of accountability and justice for all victims of crimes against humanity,” she wrote. “We have seen unthinkable atrocities committed by the US, Hamas, Israel, Afghanistan, and the Taliban.”

This is, of course, true. In fact, it’s way too mild. But Omar caved.

She said she had never made “a moral comparison between Hamas and the Taliban and the US and Israel.”

“I was in no way equating terrorist organizations with democratic countries with well-established judicial systems,” she added.

House Democratic leaders issued their own statement welcoming Ms. Omar’s clarification, saying that “drawing false equivalencies between democracies like the US and Israel and groups that engage in terrorism like Hamas and the Taliban foments prejudice and undermines progress toward a future of peace and security for all.”

Now, the problem here is that there is no moral equivalency between Hamas and the US and Israel. Hamas has killed far fewer people, and committed far fewer atrocities. It has not tried to ethnically cleanse an entire people and has not invaded any other countries. Being a “democracy,” which Israel is not, since almost half of the population can’t vote, does not excuse your war crimes. Hamas is, in every way that matters, far less evil than the US or Israel. This isn’t even a question, and anyone who thinks it is has their moral compass so far up their ass it will never again see daylight.

Do remember that the CIA tortured people. This is well established. What did the “well-established judicial system” of the United States do about that?

The only person the “well-established judicial system” of the United States put in jail for CIA torture was the whistleblower who revealed the torture in an attempt to stop it.

Hamas aren’t “good” people, but they are freedom fighters (yeah, sorry) defending their people, who suffer under an apartheid system after having been ethnic cleansed out of most of their homeland. They have killed fewer people than Israel, stolen fewer homes, and not conquered any countries with a native population and shoved the native population into the dirt.

Compared to Israel, or the US (Libya, Iraq, Vietnam, nukes, drone murders, rendition, etc, etc.), Hamas is a moral giant. Perhaps they are only saved by their weakness, and would be as evil if they had more power, but they don’t. They shoot homemade missiles at Israel to try and stop Israel from stealing more Palestinians homes and Israel retaliates with the most advanced bombs and missiles in the world, leveling press offices, hospitals, and apartment blocks.


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Protecting Diaspora Jews and Ending the Israeli Threat to Jews

Last week, I argued you couldn’t be Jewish (in any religious sense) and defend Israel’s actions.

The great Rabbi Hillell, challenged to teach the Torah while standing on one leg, said:

“What is hateful to you, do not do to your fellow: this is the whole Torah; the rest is the explanation; go and learn.”

It should then be obvious that stealing people’s houses, beating them, destroying their orchards, and killing them is in complete opposition to the whole Torah.

Now everyone who isn’t a bald-faced liar or a fool knows that Israel uses its “Jewish” status as a shield. If you criticize Israeli crimes against humanity or war crimes, you are called an anti-semite. Lives are destroyed, routinely, by accusations of anti-semitism.

Meanwhile, we have actual anti-semitism caused by the reaction to Israel’s crimes. People get mad, and a very few attack Jews.

“Somebody in one of the cars driving by started throwing glass bottles or glass cups at the tables and they shattered everywhere,” she said. A bunch of the cars stopped, and maybe 30 of the men in the cars got out, started running towards the tables and asking indiscriminately, ‘Who’s Jewish?’”

No one was seriously hurt. Los Angeles police said they are investigating this as a hate crime, with five victims who were either punched or injured by broken glass.

Obviously this is horrible, though nothing near as bad as what is happening to Palestinians as I write. But it could be a precursor of far worse actions.

Anti-semitism is terrible. It shouldn’t be tolerated.

And Israel creates it on a vast scale by claiming to be a Jewish state, then committing atrocities, then using that they are Jewish as a shield from criticism or change.

In effect, Israel claims that its crimes are Jewish crimes. To criticize them is to criticize Jews.

This is bullshit. Israel is a settler apartheid state, but it’s not Jewish except somewhat ethnically, because what it does routinely; what it did to create itself (cleanse Palestinians at its birth, and steal their homes) is against the whole Torah.

Israel isn’t Jewish. They’re an evil state who has stolen the cloak of a great religion, which under Rabbinical guidance has largely been peaceful, and used abhorrence of the Holocaust and anti-semitism to allow them to steal and murder.

Stealing and murdering aren’t Jewish, they are what Judaism stands against.

The way forward is simple: Jews and non-Jews need to push back, at every chance, when Israel claims to be Jewish. It isn’t

When it is seen that it isn’t, this will both make Jews outside of Israel (and within Israel who oppose Israel’s crimes) safer, and make a one-state settlement which makes everyone in Israel-Palestine a citizen and equal before the law more likely.

If Israel isn’t Jewish, then it’s no big deal to have Palestinians be citizens.

Israel as a state that claims to be Jewish, and uses its supposed Judaism as a shield against criticism of its crimes, needs to end.

What will remain is a state that by treating everyone equally (do not do to your fellow what is hateful to you) will be more Jewish for proclaiming it less.

May God, in all his forms, bless those who seek equality and peace and cast his gaze upon Israel, who claim to be his children, and bring to them Justice with Mercy.


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Israel Invades Gaza

After bombing the shit out of Gaza, the ground incursion has begun.

The strikes were so strong that people inside the city, several kilometers away, could be heard screaming in fear…

…Gaza’s Health Ministry said the death toll has climbed to 103 Palestinians, including 27 children and eleven women, with 530 people wounded. The Hamas and Islamic Jihad militant groups have confirmed 20 deaths in their ranks, though Israel says that number is much higher. Seven people have been killed in Israel, including a six year-old boy.

Let us remember the sequence. Israeli settlers stole homes in Jerusalem, and Israeli troops attacked peaceful worshippers in al-Aqsa mosque, then Hamas fired missiles after this had been going on for days and the government showed no sign of stopping.

Hamas exactly knows Israel’s weakness: Israelis are paralyzed by the fear of having soldiers taken captive, because the Israelis have become cowards: they have spent over 40 years killing and hurting and dispossessing the weak, and like all bullies, they can’t stand anyone who doesn’t cower in front of them. Remember that Hezbollah beat them in the last war, and even defeated them in the electronic warfare theater (which takes some doing since Israel has the best US equipment). Israel is too scared to patrol near Lebanon, because Hezbollah has told them that if they do, they will grab the first soldiers they can find.

Hamas military spokesman Abu Obeida said the group was not afraid of a ground invasion, saying any invasion would be a chance “to increase our catch” of dead or captive soldiers.

Catch ’em. Send them through the tunnels to safe houses.

The Israelis, of course, have many many prisoners, but Palestinians expect that, are used to it, and know it is a cost of resistance.

I will not cavil or “both sides” this. The Palestinians, as an occupied people, have every right to resist the occupiers, and the Israelis, as the occupiers, are the people committing the serious crimes against humanity and war crimes.

Hamas can’t “win” this. They are too outgunned and outnumbered.

But because they know the weakness of the Israelis, because they know the Israelis cannot bear one-one hundredth of the pain they routinely inflict on Palestinians, Hamas can make Israel pay.

Israel, as a Jewish-ethnic state, is an ongoing crime against humanity. The two-state solution is dead. Israel needs to become a single state, with everyone being a citizen with equal rights, and all stolen property needs to be returned to those from whom it was stolen.

To do otherwise is unworthy and pathetic; it shows that Israel learned the exact wrong lessons from the Nazis and the Wehrmacht. It is terrible and sad.

There is no good end here for Israel without doing the right thing. The only other option is to finish their wholesale ethnic cleansing and show that, while not strictly speaking genocidal, they truly are Hitler’s bastard children.

If that’s not who they want to be, then for once in Israel’s existence, it must do the right thing by those it has wronged. There is no other good path out; no other path worthy of a God served by Rabbi Hillell:

“What is hateful to you, do not do to your fellow: this is the whole Torah; the rest is the explanation; go and learn.”

The Israelis claim to be Jews. If I were a Jew, I would claim that no one who supports the actions of Israel towards the Palestinians can be Jewish, for they do not follow the whole Torah. God and all the prophets can only curse their names for doing their evil and cloaking in God’s name.


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The Right of Israel to Exist and the Fresh Hell it Is Heading Towards

I’ll be plain here: As a religious ethnic state which prefers Jews, I do not grant that Israel has the right to exist. (Wonder how many subscriptions that statement just cost me?)

As a state where everyone has equal rights, it has every right to exist, and all its residents should be left in peace.

Palestinians and non-Jews like Muslims are humans. As humans, they should be treated with the same rights as every other human.

What is happening right now is that Palestinian homes are being stolen by force. When the law is used (it often isn’t), it applies one set of laws to Palestinians, and another to Israeli Jews.

Meanwhile, at al-Aqsa mosque, entirely peaceful worshipers are being gassed and beaten. One signature move is “knee on neck,” of George Floyd fame, which is how fascist cops give the middle finger to everyone decent in the world, now. There are videos of this, with millions of views.

If you are a humanist who believes in universal human rights, you cannot support the existence of Israel as a Jewish ethnic-state. It was created by taking the lands and homes of other people, and it exists by keeping those people and their descendants a second class residents, often with great violence. Nor have its crimes ever stopped.

Map Story of Palestine

Map Story of Palestine

What this map should tell you is something simple: There is no possibility of a two-state solution; there is no viable Palestine without removing large numbers of violent settlers. Those settlers would assassinate any Israeli leader who tried, and odds are the army and police would help them.

What it also tells you is that Palestinians are still being ethnically cleansed. This is not a historic crime, long or short in the past, it is an ongoing crime.

 Two-state is dead. There are only two ends to this: The Israelis finish ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, or they give them full rights and citizenship and end the Jewish-ethnic nature of Israel.

It is very odd that cleansing Palestinians is, sub-voce, justified by the Holocaust. Being genocided does not give a free “ethnic cleansing” card, and if it did, one presumes it would be against those who genocided you. I, as someone of primary Irish descent, would presumably get one against the English (and, Lord, if anyone deserves it, the English are high on the list, but I will not descend to their level and kill vast swathes of innocents).

If Israel was “justice” for the Holocaust, then it should have been created by ethnically cleansing Germans out of Prussia.

But the issue here is that Israel is a religious-ethnic state where almost half the population (and yes, Palestinians are ruled primarily by Israel, not by the Palestinian Authority or Hamas, don’t make me laugh) are not even second-class citizens. It is an apartheid state, just not yet one with percentages as bad as those in South Africa.

Israelis of good conscience or good sense, know the horror they now face. What lessons did they learn from the Nazis? Who have they become? What is the state of their souls, should souls exist?

Van Creveld, an Israeli military historian and hardly a bleeding heart:

They [Israeli soldiers] are very brave people… they are idealists… they want to serve their country and they want to prove themselves. The problem is that you cannot prove yourself against someone who is much weaker than yourself. They are in a lose-lose situation. If you are strong and fighting the weak, then if you kill your opponent then you are a scoundrel… if you let him kill you, then you are an idiot. So here is a dilemma which others have suffered before us, and for which as far as I can see there is simply no escape. Now the Israeli army has not by any means been the worst of the lot. It has not done what for instance the Americans did in Vietnam… it did not use napalm, it did not kill millions of people. So everything is relative, but by definition, to return to what I said earlier if you are strong and you are fighting the weak, then anything you do is criminal

Israel, so far, has done great criminal acts. But yes, it has only ethnically cleansed, it has not committed genocide.

For their own sakes, I hope that Israelis will realize the precipice upon which they stand and see how they have let a combination of fear, power, and greed for a homeland convince them that a Jewish ethnic state is worth what it is costing them.

The next play is to bring down al-Aqsa mosque, and rebuild the Temple. Be very clear that that is where this is going.

May God, if he exists and is beneficient and not a monster, extend his blessings over all involved, that they see the hell they live in, and the worse hell they are charging towards. To live in peace, under just and kind laws applied evenly to all, is to live in heaven. To deny that peace or equal law, is to deny God.


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Iran Isn’t Going to Let Itself Be Kicked to Death Without Fighting Back

As expected, and very cleanly and clearly. No attempt to obfuscate:

At least two airbases housing US troops in Iraq have been hit by more than a dozen ballistic missiles, according to the US Department of Defence.

Iranian state TV says the attack is a retaliation after the country’s top commander Qasem Soleimani was killed in a drone strike in Baghdad, on the orders of US President Donald Trump.

As I noted when Iran general (and war hero) Qasem Soleimani was assassinated, Iran pretty much had to retaliate.

Soleimani was effectively the most powerful General in Iran. Think of him as a combination of Eisenhower and someone who fought on the front lines: to Iranians, a genuine hero. The man who actually was most responsible for defeating ISIS, among other things.

You could regard him as the second most important man in Iraq.

If the US could kill him without consequences, no one in Iran’s leadership was safe, except possibly Khameini (the Supreme Leader) and maybe not even him.

Retaliating is a matter of personal survival for Iran’s leadership. Personal.

But Soleimani was also tremendously popular. So, as often happens when attacked by outsiders, even Iranians who dislike the Iranian regime have rallied around. (Americans may remember something similar after 9/11.)

I note that Iran has retaliated by hitting military targets. Which is to say: The US killed someone in their military, they have retaliated by attacking the US military. I would say that this is legitimate.

Only bullies think that their victims are obligated to sit still while being hit and not punch back. Oh, and a lot of Americans.

Trump threatened that if Iran retaliated he would hit multiple targets, including cultural ones. Iran has said that if he does so they will escalate, including hitting Israel and Dubai.

What they are trying to indicate is that they are not going to be Iraq. It isn’t going to be some nice clean war where the victim sits still while bombed to shit by US forces and only a few American soldiers die, which no one actually cares about who matters. (No, no, don’t pretend that American leaders actually care about American casualties, their actions indicate they do not and you’ll look like an idiot and a fool.)

Remember that Iran is an ally of both Russia and China. China needs Iran in order to complete its Belt and Road Initiative (the centerpiece of both their economic and alliance strategy and Xi Jinping’s signature policy, upon which his legacy rests). Russia is run by Putin, who has made not allowing the US to destroy any more Russian allies the centerpiece of his foreign policy. It’s why he went into Syria, and it’s why he hates Hilary Clinton so much, as he regarded her as the prime US actor in destroying Libya.

So this war has a real chance of serious escalation. Iraq was isolated and had no friends. Iran is somewhat isolated, yes, but it does have powerful friends who believe it is in their self-interest to keep Iran from being blown into failed state status by the US.

Again, the logic here is the same as Iran’s as regards escalation: If Russia (and China) let the US take out their allies whenever the US wants, then what is to stop the US from just doing that until these countries have no allies left?

This is a dangerous moment, and the US is not in the right here. The US unilaterally caused this problem by assassinating a senior government official. All the whinging on about how Soleimani has been involved in Iranian proxy attacks on the US is ludicrous: The official US policy is to fund and aid terrorists attacking Iran (look it up.) US officials, certainly including every President since Bush, have made decisions leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians and other countries’ military personnel.

This is realpolitik, not some morality play. There are no good guys here, there are just people who are acting on orders or in what they think are the interests of their country. (Or, in Trump’s case, his own interests.)

The correct action right now is to not escalate again. Escalation will lead to a lot of dead people, for no gain for either Iran or the US.

Note that I despise Iran’s regime. I am a left-winger who believes in the equality of men and women, kindness and universal humanity, not in theocratic government. If Iran’s government were to fall tomorrow, I’d be OK with that.

But that’s internal Iranian business. It’s not America’s business to start a war with Iran. It will not make anything better, any more than attacking Iraq did, or attacking Libya (which now has its famous open air slave markets).

It should also be noted that, if the war happens, the Europeans are going to get slammed with another bunch of refugees. Perhaps they should pre-empt this by sending some troops to Tehran, so that if Trump attacks, he has to kill Germans and French.

Kidding, kidding. I know that the EU has no actual morals and not enough guts to do this. But, y’know, in an alternate universe where they actually had the bravery to stand up to the US either in their own interests, or in something approaching a desire to do the right thing…

We’ll see how this plays out.

But remember, Iran isn’t planning on sitting still and taking it. This isn’t going to be Iraq of Afghanistan. If this turns into a real war, they will hit back with everything they have, rather than hoping that if they just lie there and let the US kick them, the US will stop before kicking them to death.

And China and (especially) Russia don’t want them kicked to death.


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Is Trump Trying to Start a War with Iran?

Qasem Soleimani

And maybe with Iraq, too.

Trump has had the second most powerful man in Iraq, the leader of the Qods force, Qasem Soleimani, killed. This is like someone assassinating the Joint Chief of Staff combined with the Leader of the House.

Qasem Soleimani was also very close to Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader–a personal friend.

On top of this, US forces in Iraq have arrested the leaders of two of Iraq’s most important militias.

These are, well, acts of war. Iranian sources are saying that there will be retaliation, no question.

Iran has far more power and influence than the US in Iraq, if a real war starts, it is very likely that it will be the US against Iran, Iraq,, and possibly Syria.

Iran and Syria are, effectively, allies of Russia.

Iran, like everyone else who fears the US and has enough resources, has spent the last 20 years preparing specifically for war with the US. They have built a fearsome missile force, designed to hit US ships and bases, and to be too large to shoot down and stop. They have stated that, in war, they will shut down the Gulf, meaning that oil prices around the world will soar, likely causing a financial crisis and severe recession–possibly a depression.

Putin is determined, moreover, to not allow the US to destroy any more Russian allies. One of his huge regrets was allowing Libya to be destroyed. He will want to keep Iran from being defeated.

The funny thing about this is that killing and arresting leaders will make far less difference than the US imagines: In organizations where everyone believes in the mission (like militias and Qods), those leaders will just be replaced. The person who replaces them will be competent, and will want revenge. The US always overestimates the importance of leaders, because a US leader’s job is to get people to do things they don’t really believe are worth doing.

This is an amazing clusterfuck. The Iranians are in a bind: If they do not launch some sort of savage reprisal, then the message is clear, the US can kill any Iranian they want–if they can kill the second most powerful man in Iran, who’s off the table?

Iraqi militias and the government face a similar quandry: If they do nothing, it is clear their independence is a complete sham, and they are still ruled by America.

On the other hand, if they escalate at a symmetrical level, they will have to do so much damage that the US will rally around Trump and scream for Trump to strike them again–and even harder. Various American Rambo-patriots are already flexing their muscles and making threats.

It isn’t hard to see how that could quickly lead to war, but the other option for both Iran and Iraq is essentially to lick the boots that just kicked them.

Fun stuff.

If Trump doesn’t walk this back, hard, there may well be the most serious war in decades. At the far end, though I think it’s unlikely, it certainly isn’t impossible for this to escalate into a war involving both Russia and the US, on opposite sides.

This is a profoundly dangerous moment. Don’t underestimate just how badly this could turn out.

(And remember that Obama normalized this idea, seeded by, Bush Jr., that the US had the right to kill foreigners anytime, anywhere, subject only to the President’s discretion. Not only an evil idea, but a profoundly dangerous one. The US’s entire drone assassination program needs to be shut down, now and permanently.)


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